Mid-Week Hockey Musings Including "In Defense of Alexander Semin"....

Wow - well hope and good thoughts continue to emanate from Verizon Center and KCI after a 3-0 shutout of Southeast Division leading Carolina last night and that's a good thing in my Capitals Fan Centric world or maybe more properly in my world which this time of year is usually Capitals Fan Centric. My musings today on hockey are realism and fact versus perception though so I must remember that the Capitals still need to basically play 0.600 hockey the rest of the way this season to be reasonably sure they make the playoffs come April 27th and even with this second in a row regulation win over a Division leading team they are still 5-5-0 (0.500) in their last 10 games. That of course means tonight's game in Philadelphia against our traditional rival Flyers is as important as ever and could be looked back on come April 28th as a turning point one way or another either way.

I try not to be overly dramatic on these things, I'm just a simple hockey fan, blogging my own personal thoughts and opinions here after all. I'm a middle aged guy who loves his regular day job and has other avocations and interests in addition to following the Capitals, NHL and pro sports in general. I don't want to grow up to be a journalist or statistician or anything like that but I do really, really enjoy seeing the best in the world perform and compete against each other game in game out; I've blogged before about this and the reason I'm so passionate about following the NHL is from what I can tell pro hockey players are the athletes who keep it most real, and are most approachable and the nicest of them all. In addition to playing a sport that for me is absolutely the most fun to watch either in HD on TV or in person. Why this attestation you ask? Well because of the stuff I'm going to write about that will follow today. Approachability, etc. aside though, I firmly believe that professional athletes at the highest levels are special talents and not like most of us. They can't be and achieve the level of capability in their games without a higher compete level, etc. than we generally approach, anything we do in life, regardless of their physical gifts or talent levels. Both of which also have to be there in that top 1/10th of 1% level to eve make it as "a grinder" etc. To me the prior statement isn't opinion, it's fact. One only has to look at a guy who "almost made it" and see his or her talent levels, etc. and compare them to we typical beer leaguers, etc. Do we know a lot about a particular sport, etc. compared to someone who hasn't or didn't play "the game" sure, probably. Do we know and understand "the game" to the level it takes someone to inherently understand and live the game eve to make it in the AHL - I don't think so. And what's that mean to make it in the NHL - well it simply means you have to have all that and more and to do that it means whether you're a fourth line grinder or a first line talent you are special - talent and physical ability level; work ethic level; and knowledge and understanding "vision, etc." - really in every way. Put it simply there are over 7,000,000,000 (billion) people on this planet today; ~1,500 own NHL contracts and roster spots today - that's 0.00002%. No matter how you look at that - that's special. It's also something I think we fans overlook and forget when we hear comments by them about their peers. They aren't talking about whether or not compared with mere mortals or even top tier players in the lesser leagues such as the AHL, KHL, etc. are like this or that. They are talking about their perceptions, etc. of a peer who is playing and being paid to compete against them at the top 0.00002% level of a sport is like. My point is that in the past I've commented that one of the things I don't like about Sidney Crosby is how plain vanilla and non-controversial 99.9999% of what comes out of his mouth is - after this past week's furor over Troy Brouwer's comments about Alexander Semin and all the reaction to it - I will probably never feel or think such thoughts again - even about Sidney Crosby.

Before I go on let me say this - Troy Brouwer and every other current NHL player, former teammate or otherwise is truly entitled to and likely has an opinion about the other 1499 players around with NHL contracts. No argument there. Also I love that Brouwer is having a great season and playing well - I want him to continue to do so and I think he will do so. As you will see from the notes that follow, I am and always have been a fan of Alexander Semin and I will continue to be so. I also think it was time for him to move on for both himself and the Capitals last summer. I think his play, etc. this season will prove that I am right and he'll do better than ever in Carolina. As a Caps fan, I wish he'd do that on a team outside the SE Division but hey, the Caps could have had him if we wanted him and this (letting him go) was probably the right move.

All that said when twitter and other media blew up last week after Brouwer's comments once again, IMO, we saw emotions run high ad statements based on emotion and perception vice fact, statistics and data running amok, in my opinion. So here goes - here's my factual statements and data "in defense of Alexander Semin" as opposed or in some case, in direct response to many of the most common thoughts tweeted that I think are just not based in reality and let me say this, if you doubt whether perception is or can become reality when it's all said and done  - ask yourself how Zach Parise exited this summer with a long term $12M/year deal while Semin who has better numbers - all around - is playing on a one year $7M/deal (again) this season? I'm not saying that Parise isn't worth his $12M - you know how I know he is? Because that's what he's getting paid - that's a fact - and it' simple, someone whose job is to decide whether or not Zach Parise is worth $12M decided he was and is writing those checks today. In the world we live in something is worth what someone will actually pay for it - not what the current owner might think its worth before he/she tries to "sell it" etc. That's how our world works, so in answer to the question that many Caps fans last week made comments on - Alexander Semin is for sure worth $7M/season. The factual data proves he is - for the last three seasons he's been making that and he's been doing so on one year deals; so at any point in time if he wasn't worth $7M, he wouldn't have been paid it the following season. Now let's look at the market comparables and Semin's numbers to understand why and how Semin has been able to command $7M/season "on the open market" each of the last three seasons.

In Defense of Alexander Semin:

Here's the data I collected that I thought was/is interesting looking at a pretty broad array of top NHL forward contracts as comparables to Alexander Semin.

Semin (L/RW)     $7M     G         A         P                G/G     P/G

2011-12                           21         33        54             0.273   0.701
2010-11                           28         26        54             0.431   0.831
2009-10                           40         44        84             0.548   1.151
2008-09                           34         45        79             0.548   1.274
2007-08                           24         16        42             0.413   0.667
2006-07                          38         35        73              0.494   0.948
2003-04                          10           12        22            0.192   0.423
Career              486GP                                             0.414   0.868

 Other Top NHL Forwards Making Similar Salaries (career numbers/game) to Semin:

  1) S. Crosby (C)            $7.5M            453GP          0.512   1.406
  2) E. Malkin (C)            $9M               445GP          0.476   1.231
  3) A. Ovechkin (L/RW) $9M               570GP           0.609   1.216
  4) J. Thorton (C)            $7.0M          1092GP           0.300   1.001
  5) I. Kovalchuk (R/LW)$11M             798GP           0.518   1.005
  6) S. Stamkos (C/W)      $8.0M            343GP          0.560   1.044
  7) Z. Parise (LW)           $12M             519GP           0.387   0.813
  8) E. Staal (C/LW)         $8.4M**        659GP           0.393   0.900
  9) V. Lecavalier (C)       $10M            1016GP          0.373   0.845
10) M. Richards (C)         $8.4M             543GP          0.285   0.744
11) R. Nash (R/LW)         $7.6M             688GP           0.424   0.813
12) M. Gaborik (L/RW)   $7.5M             739GP          0.448   0.890
13) M. Cammallieri (W/C) $7.0M          576GP          0.351   0.759
14) J. Spezza (C)              $8.0M             611GP           0.373   1.016
15) J. Iginla (RW)            $7.0M**       1205GP           0.431   0.901
16) T. Vanak (L/RW)      $6.4M            566GP            0.428   0.837
17) M. StLouis (R/LW)   $5.5M**         950GP            0.344   0.922
18) M. Hossa (RW)         $7.9M             997GP           0.427   0.923
19) P. Kane (RW/C)        $6.0M             418GP           0.325   0.615
20) H. Zetterberg (C/LW)$7.75M**     687GP            0.376   0.945

 Additional Semin statistics: 0.959 PIM/Game; Career +/- = +74 (+0.154/game)

 And just for grins (again Career Numbers and current salaries):
T. Brouwer (RW)                    $2.35M        337GP    0.223   0.439 (-14) Also:  (0.724PIM/Game)
M. Bradley (RW)                    UFA            675GP     0.087   0.221
D. Steckel (C)                         $1.10M        394GP     0.081   0.183.

 Additional information about the data: Source - TSN.COM and CapGeek.com. All numbers except career +/- is limited to NHL regular season data on TSN.COM through 2/26/2013.  In order to look at the whole what about "Semin is a washout/no show in the playoffs" assertion I did also look at EVERY one of Semin and the 20 comparables above and compare their G/G and Pts/Gm in playoffs games versus their reular season career numbers.  That data shows two things 1) the playoffs are indeed different and lower scoring/tighter played and 2) only four players on the list have significantly better numbers in either G/G or Pts/Gm in their career in the playoffs vs. regular season numbers.  The four "big game/playoff" guys are highlighted by a double asterik ** next to their annual salary numbers:  Eric Staal; Jerome Iginla; Marty StLouis; and Henrik Zetterberg.  Everyone else is closeto but slightly under their career norms for their playoff appearances but some like Rick Nash clearly do not have a stastically significant data set to mke any sort of judgemetn on and that's the biggest reason I didn't include it in the numbers for comparable comparisons.

So where should we begin looking at the data/statistics and numbers – which is what agents and GM’s do when they negotiate and make the decisions of what to pay for a player to decide “Is Alexander Semin worth $7M?”. Sure, intangible stuff like the perception material is used I’m sure to try and bolster a case one way or another and for sure we know from Jim Rutherford’s comments about the deal he negotiated that brought Semin to Raleigh it had something to do with why Semin is currently on a one year deal in Carolina vice a 3 year or so deal he was apparently seeking from teams.  Further I’ve kept this mainly to the basic data and numbers since in order to better understand so called “fancy statistics” you really have to look very closely at them and explore them and I think this defense is getting long winded enough as it is.  That said in pure pay for performance terms looking at the pay for productivity information of Semin vs. 20 other elite forwards in the NHL – and to get more than $5M/season you need to be “elite” Semin seems to be on par with his statistical peers.  Certainly his salary is not outside the statistical norms when looking at $/ goals or points per game. For a wing to be looked at as a goal scorer and a reliable offensive producer that justifies $5+M/season I believe this data points to two things/thresholds that need to be met or exceeded – a likelihood of achieving or exceeding 0.400 goals/game and/or a likelihood of achieving or exceeding 0.750 points per game.  Semin easily meets both of those thresholds.  Now why $7M instead of a number closer to $5M?  Well that’s where two things I think come into and came into play – 1) Semin’s preference for a shorter deal vice a lower salary and longer term – he’s consistently shown a willingness to trade term for money now.  (Perhaps that’s the hockey playing son reflecting something he learned growing up the son of a successful CFO (e.g time/value of money and that at the end of a day, especially when as a professional athlete the length of time you can achieve maximum earnings can be fleeting – “a bird in the hand is probably worth two in the bush+…2)  The second factor is Semin’s career numbers show when looking at his best season: 2008-09 and 2009-2010, he can significantly outperform his statistical means in both G/G and Pts/G and when he does he begins to approach numbers that are indeed league leading.  It’s simply the price a team has to pay for the difference of having someone who can reliably score 30G and 60Pts in a season and one who in addition to that productivity has the upside of and clear potential of scoring 40G and 80 points.  It’s really no different than the premium the Rangers had to pay to sign either Gaborik or Nash or the Blackhawks pay Hossa.   Now about “intangibles” and such things where fact needs to be separated from fiction, there’s really only one negative frequently mentioned when talking about Semin that the data/statistics bear out and that’s the number of minor penalties he takes vs. the ones he draws.   As an elite, scoring player Semin’s 0.959 Minor Penalty Minutes/Game is significantly higher than many of the other players on this list and because f that no matter how many penalties he draws the delta will pale in comparison to pretty much every other  players on this list.  Now what about the impression he gets lazy or is a little soft relative to playing through injuries in the middle of the season – well the average number of games played and appeared in per season just doesn’t bear that assertion out.

 Why this defense of Alexander Semin?  Well I continually defend against any of this “enigma stuff” when it’s hurled at European and especially Russian players.  I do so because I simply think about what it must be like to be a 20 something person living and working in a foreign land under a microscope.  Further, Russians like Americans and Canadians grow up in a land where they can literally drive for hours and even days and not have to speak a foreign tongue.  Coming to the US or Canada to live and work is very intimidating and has to wreak havoc on these young men emotionally, especially while they are trying to break into and maintain careers as professional athletes.  I think the whole “enigma” hullabaloo is exactly that and it’s exacerbated by the fans and media to have something to write about.  No more – no less.  Further, in most cases the data bears things out.  Forget Semin, the fact that from time to time the press says similar types of things about Malkin – a two time Hart Trophy winner with all universe statistics is probably a better thing to point to about the horse hockey aspects of it.  I started this by saying that I agree that peers like Brouwer, Bradley, and Steckel are all clearly entitled to their opinions and to voice them if they so desire re: Semin as a teammate.  That said when Brouwer arrived, the Capitals were in transition and his time as a teammate of Semin was brief – 22 games vs the 18 games Semin’s current Carolina teammates have with him.  Here’s what two of Semin’s current teammates are saying about the intangibles per a recent article in the less than Semin loving Washington Times:

“Behind the back, through the legs,” Corvo said. “That’s why he makes the big bucks. He makes the plays that other guys just don’t think of.”

Semin’s ability to make difficult plays look easy has never been questioned. But even the elements of Semin’s game that have come under fire aren’t ones the Hurricanes are concerned about. “I think he’s competed hard every practice and every game for us. He continues to prove people wrong,” Eric Staal said. “I’ve got nothing but good things to say about him.”

I don’t know why some of his former teammates feel the need to comment on Semin, I’ll conjecture they believe if they had his talent they’d make more of it, because they clearly seem to have said, they think they have a better work ethic, and they didn't appreiate the inconsistant work ethic they felt Semin approached the game with while they were teammates. My reaction is it’s life not grade school and frankly it’s professional sports – the whole “work ethic” thing and make sure you show up every night and are accountable thing is, in my view overhyped, overblown and misunderstood by we fans and lay people. I’m not saying it’s not important – it is. I AM saying there is NO WAY, no matter how talented you are that you get to and stay in the top 0.00002% of your profession without doing that exact thing – working hard and holding yourself accountable – pretty much every minute of the season How any individual player does that is going to be very personal and clearly different for someone from a different cultural background. So it’s really a comparison that one member of the top 0.00002% is making to another member of the top 0.00002%. I think if you/we are not part of that club, you'll (we’ll) probably misunderstand the context, motive and even the meaning of the statement. For that reason, I’m now admitting I understand why Sidney Crosby is probably smart to say nothing controversial in pretty much every interview he ever does. It doesn't make for interesting articles or stories but it's probably the smartest thing one player can do when especially when they are one of the leagues clear top ten and asked about another player. If for some reason Troy Brouwer, David Steckel or Matt Bradley ever asked me my advice on the topic, I’d suggest they just politely respond with non-controversial statements like I wish him well but when we play his team I’m certainly hoping we match up well against him and continue to keep him off the scoreboard. I mean if John Carlson can get the quote right, I’m sure everyone else on the team can as well.



I think I’ve rambled on enough on this topic and I doubt I’ll ever write another word on it unless somehow Carolina wins the Stanley Cup this year and Alexander Semin is a big reason they do so. I mean at that point it’ll be worth talking about what a great thing the move was for both Semin and the Hurricanes, until then Semin is really “just” another top NHL forward that plays against the Washington Capitals and whose style of play and talent level I respect and enjoy watching.



The one other reason I wrote this defense is that I truly don’t get why fans at Verizon Center would boo him. He’s said nothing negative about his time here and he clearly, from the data and statistics perspective earned the money he was paid while playing here. I mean it’s not like he’s Jagr who the Caps paid for multiple years to play for the New York Rangers for crying out loud. So for that reason I just think boo'ing Semin and reviling him in any way is silly.



Now about tonight’s game: I’m with Peerless – tight game; Caps Win 3-2…
LETS GO CAPS!!!

It's Been An Interesting Month --- Lots of Differences and Lots of Similarities ...

I last posted a blog here on April 15th - tax day or almost tax day. A lot has changed and a lot remains the same. In the changed category there are now only eight teams left in this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs. In the same category, the Capitals are again/still locked in an intense battle to stay alive in their quest for the team's first ever Championship playing very good and very tight hockey against a favored opponent. When I last posted the Caps - Bruins round 1 playoff series was tied at one game a piece and I really had no idea how I would end up remembering the 2011-2012 Capitals. Today, the Caps are tied 2 games a piece in their second round playoff battle with the New York Rangers; and I definitely know how I'll remember this season, regardless of how the rest of it plays out. I will remember the 2011-2012 Capitals as a gritty, hard working never say die team with character. I will remember them as a team who has been able to match stride for stride two other gritty, hard working character never say die teams in this years playoffs - the Boston Bruins and the New York Rangers. I was pleasantly surprised when the Caps, "our Capitals" knocked off Boston in Round 1, I mean I knew the Caps were and are a very talented team, and I know they "want it". However, when the Caps failed to close-out the series at home in Game 6, I was worried, Boston is NOT an easy place to play any time, let alone in a game 7. However, thanks to solid games by virtually everyone on the ice, a 0.969 SV% by Braden Holtby, 18 blocked shots by the team's skaters including a game high 5 blocked shots by John Carlson, and an epic game by the third and fourth lines the game ended on a 2-1 overtime wining goal by off season pick-up Joel Ward. Last spring Ward earned an off season "pay day" as an Unrestricted Free Agent signing by the Capitals because of his big game play as a Nashville Predator in the playoffs. This season's playoff performances by Ward are making Capitals GM George McPhee once again look prescient. I'll remember this team as a very gritty, never say die team because of this year's playoffs. So far this season the Capitals have played 11 Playoff Games, only one of them has been decided by more than one goal, the Rangers' 3-1 Game 1 victory at Madison Square Garden on Saturday April 28th. Five of the Capitals 11 playoff games so far have required overtime to determine the winner, including of course the triple overtime marathon game 3 versus the Rangers on Wednesday Evening/Thursday Morning at Verizon Center. A 2-1 victory by the Rangers in a goalie's duel that goes a long way in making sure no one ever thinks that "double headers" at least between the same two teams are ever going to be an idea that catches on in the NHL. Game 3 against the Rangers ran 102:09 (the 14:41 mark of period "6") at which time the Rangers took advantage of a couple of missed assignments and miscues by the Capitals in their own end that enabled Ranger sniper Marian Gaborik to put the game ending goal behind Holtby. The stat sheet from that game is pretty mind boggling to look at; both teams combined for 81 blocked shots (40 for the Capitals, 41 for the Rangers)and that's just one example of "playoff hockey" that can be found Holtby stopped 47 of 49 shots on goal for a 0.959 SV% while Lundquist stopped 45 0f 46 (0.978 SV%). On the Rangers Brian Boyle had 9 hits and 2 blocked shots, one of which he stopped with his face. After taking the puck to his face, Boyle still returned to the game to win a few more of the 17 faceoff draws he won (Boyle was 17 of 31 for a 55% face off win percentage. On the Capitals side of the ice Ovechkin also had 9 hits, though the Caps team leader in that department was Matt Hendricks with 11 hits. Hendricks' numbers balanced Boyle's nicely, in addition to his 11 hits, Hendy was 71% in the face off circle winning 12 of 17 draws and he also had two blocked shots though none with his face, at least not from my viewing angle. Yesterday's Capitals - Rangers game 4 was another tightly played game, though the Capitals clearly played their best period of hockey so far in the playoffs in yesterday's first period and the Rangers were on their heels for most of that period. In any case before the second period was over the Rangers had come back and we Caps fans again found ourselves watching a tightly played third period in a game which could have gone "either way." Both teams pretty much had their "A Game" out there except for minor faux paux' and when a team made a mistake, they pretty much paid for it. The good news for us Caps Fans is that our team is skating stride for stride with the opponents and not shrinking from any on ice battles. After yesterday's 3-2 win, the Caps find themselves again in a best of three games contest to see if they will continue their quest. The other good news is there are no doubts being cast about the team's stars' abilities in these playoffs and the entire team seems committed to each other and to winning. Look at the goal scorers so far in this years playoffs and you see familiar names; listen to the pundits and you hear some familiar names being used in unfamiliar (at least for the MSM)contexts such as Semin & "great two way play", etc. The bad news is none of their opponents are going to "mis-underestimate" them. The Rangers are also "playing for keeps" so the only thing for sure about the rest of this current series is we will continue to get to watch some excellent hockey, playoff hockey, Hunter Hockey. Next up, the Rangers at Madison Square Garden, tomorrow evening. LETS GO CAPS!!!!

"The Difference" ... "What's the Difference?" You May Ask

You hear it all the time, someone asks you: "What's the difference?" its a question asked about so many things. Time for instance: "What's the difference between now and 10 days ago or from now?" Well, a lot ... yes ... A LOT really for example, 10 days ago I was hoping the Washington Capitals would/could make the playoffs, I even still had some hope they might win the Southeast Division for a fifth season in a row, then. Ten (10) days from now I'll hopefully be hoping they win their second playoff series of 2012. So, A LOT will/could be different with regard to that particular item of interest to me. Things for example: "What's the difference between being tied 1 game all in a best of seven series and down 2 games to zip?" Well A LOT really, just ask any of the sixteen teams in the 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs but most especially ask the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Vancouver Canucks or the Florida Panthers, or better yet watch the Panthers when they play the New Jersey Devils to day and try to avoid the current predicament the Penguins and Canucks are in. Ten days ago if you had told me we'd be here today with the Caps coming home from Boston after 6 periods of regulation hockey, one full period of playoff overtime, and two partial periods of playoff overtime having allowed a total of just two (2) that's TWO goals against and with the series tied one game apiece against the Boston Bruins; while the Penguins and the Canucks were going on the road to LA and Philadelphia trailing their series two games to nil, I'd have said with as surly and sarcastic tone I could muster: "Yeah, RIGHT, sure ...." But I guess that's why they play these Stanley Cup playoff game things on the ice and not in our minds. Oh and let me just say this relative to "What's the difference?" - what's the difference in having Nicklas Backstrom in the lineup and NOT having Nicklas Backstrom in the lineup? Well it's about the same these last two games against the Bruins as not having Alexander Semin in the lineup and playing the best two way hockey of ANY foward in either Boston or Washington's lineup as having Semin in the Capitals lineup and playing the absolute BEST hockey any of us Washington fans have seen him play, ever. That's the difference. Thank you to the young guns, ALL of them Backstrom, Green, Semin, and Ovechkin for totally showing up so far this series. Also thank you to John Carlson, Brooks Laich, Karl Alzner, and Dennis Wideman who have also been BEASTS on the ice in the last 10 games but especially so in the two playoff games so far against Boston. Actually, I'll go so far as to say, the entire team is looking good, even Jeff Schultz who I have been "ragging on" a far amount during games on my twitter twit stream, has played great, playoff hockey, so far this series.

In fact, the Capitals - Bruins series has been absolutely awesome so far. Great hockey. It just goes to show you, you don't need to see a lot of goals getting scored to watch a really great game of sport. (Are you listening - Gary?) For example, take soccer or as the ROW (Rest of World) calls it football, how many games see more than a couple of goals scored? Not many. Now take an NHL Stanley Cup Playoff game which would you rather have watched, yesterday's 2-1 2OT game between the Caps and Bruins or Friday's 8-5 game between the Penguins and the Flyers? Really ... No, REALLY. Think about this right now after two playoff games:

Goaltender SV% GAA
Braden Holtby 0.973 0.83
Tim Thomas 0.964 0.83
Roberto Luongo 0.891 3.59
Ilya Bryzgalov 0.857 3.93
Marc-Andre Fluery 0.804 5.45.

Is Fluery playing hurt? and I'm not just talking about either physically or mentally but perhaps both right now. We know he is a competitor, or as Dale Hunter might say, "battler" - a term that Hunter needs to find a synonym for, but since I'm superstitious, i hope he's wearing the EXACT same blue suit on Monday he wore yesterday and Dale, even if it gets/has gotten all sweaty and stuff whatever you do, do NOT get it cleaned until either the Capitals win the Cup or loose a playoff game. Seriously, though if you are Dan Bylsma, don't you think about giving Brent Johnson a start in Philly in Game 3? Isn't game 4 too late? One can argue that it's not time to change anything if you are the Flyers, and given I'm suggesting that Dale Hunter change nothing, not even his clothes given the way the Capitals are playing, you know what I'd do if i was coaching the Flyers. Now what about Vancouver? After all even though Bobby Lou is the number one goalie and one of the faces of the franchise, and his backup is an American who only played 33 regular season games to Luongo's 55, Corey Schneider did end the regular season with a SV% of 0.937 and GAA of 1.96 to Lou's 0.919 and 2.41 - might it be a time to give him a chance between the pipe when the Canucks faceoff against the Kings in LA tonight? I mean maybe Luongo has a stomach virus or some other contrived illness management can tell their fan base so they don't have to deal with the malstrom such a move would create. But after all isn't it time to do something different for BOTH Pittsburgh and Vancouver? I mean, hey, what's the difference? Two other things on goalies to think about today. 1) I'm rooting for Jose Theodore to have a great game today, Theo's SV% in game one vs. the Devils: 0.921 and he played better than his GAA of 3.05 indicates. 2) The best goalie so far in the playoffs - well I have to say given the results and overall numbers that would be Jonathan Quick in my book, key numbers Two (2) Wins; SV% 0.946, GAA 2.00. If Quick keeps playing that way and the rest of the Kings keep up the pressure on the Canucks like they have been, it really probably won't matter whether the Canucks play Luongo the rest of the series or give Schneider a chance to show what he's got, it's hard to see the Canucks taking the Kings past five, let alone six games this series.

Now about the Caps - Bruins and game three tomorrow night at Verizon Center. I don't think I've anticipated a Caps game as much, ever. True I've really only been a true Caps fan for the last seven years/seasons. However, I haven't anticipated and been into a playoff series this much since I was growing up a Flyers fan and the broad Street Bullies were on their way to their first Stanley Cup. Really. Also Caps fans please don't think less of me, I have seen the light, haven't I? I've been trying to figure out why I'm so into this series and I think it's because of all the uncertainty I have about the teams and also how much I really, really hope the Caps go deep into the playoffs this season because I really LIKE this team and think they have the right mix of talent and grit for the future long haul as well as to win today. I know that Games 1 and 2 were absolutely TOTALLY AWESOME to watch on TV, and just thinking about how awesome it will be Rock The Red on Monday and Thursday evenings has me squirming in my seat. This Hunter Hockey thing might catch on too. I mean who would you rather be this morning Sidney Crosby, Captain of the Pens down 2-0 to the Flyers with 4 points (3 G and 1A) or Alexander Ovechkin, Captain of the Capitals tied 1-1 with the Bruins and coming to home ice with 1 point (1A)? I'm thinking it's a much better day to be Ovie than Sid, but hey that's just me. Also think about this lifetime in the playoffs, Ovechkin has played 39 playoff games and averages 1.31 points per game, so if you think that eventually players regress or progress to the norm, should the Caps get past Tim Thomas and this very stingy Bruins team, things could get even better for Capitals. That said, we are watching Hunter Hockey in the playoffs for the very fist time and there are A LOT of differences to anything we've seen played in the playoffs these last five seasons. It truly is defense first, in every way - from the way players are pulling the puck into their bodies and physical envelopes and getting control of and protecting it, instead of pushing it away, immediately being in the position to move forward, BUT being exposed for a takeaway; to the protective arc that forms around the Caps goal with three or four players blocking shots whenever the Bruins start to really press things. I don't thing the Caps will change a lot regardless of who they face next if they can get by Boston. Why the "if they can get by Boston" you might ask to which I'll reply, there have been a total of four goals scored so far this series and it definitely could go either way. Now for those of you that thought I might continue the comparison of whether I'd want to be Crosby or Ovechkin - Crosby has played 64 games, averages 1.34 points per game, and has 2 goals and 2 assists so far this year, he's not the reason the Penguins trail 2 games to zip though he has apparently made a couple of mental errors against the Flyers, and he has a Stanley Cup Ring. There are just some comparisons that aren't worth making between Sid and Ovie yet and until the Capitals win their first franchise Stanley Cup, playoff stats are one of them.

In any case, this morning I'd much rather wake up a Washington Capital, San Jose Shark, Chicago Blackhawk, Detroit Red Wing or New jersey Devil then a Pittsburgh Penguin or Vancouver Canuck, that's really all I've got to say about that subject. Oh and about tomorrow night:

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

What If ... The NHL Season Started On 1/1/2012 and a Few other Random Musings About Hockey ...

After last night's Caps 4-1 win over the Montreal Canadians I started thinking ... what would things in the NHL look like if the season had started on New Year's Day? Why do I care you ask - well first off our Washington Capitals remain "on the bubble" even after what was another good game against Montreal, and I think that recent trends, records, etc should be weighted more heavily when trying to forecast near future performance. I wonder what a real statistician such as Neil Greenberg (see Twitter #fancystats or @ngreenberg) thinks of that line of thinking and if long term historical data backs that thinking up. In any case because I started wondering about that topic I compiled the following updated standings - the way the standings by Division would look if the season had started on January 1st vice the current 2011-2012 standings. NHL Records Since January 1st 2012 through Midnight Last Night (2/24/2012, 24:00 Local Time):

Southeast Division:
Carolina: 10-5-6 (26 points; 0.619)
Winnipeg: 11-12-2 (24 points; 0.480)
Washington: 10-11-3 (23 points; 0.479)
Tampa Bay: 9-10-3 (21 points; 0.477)
Florida: 7-8-5 (19 points; 0.475)

Atlantic Division:
New York Rangers: 15-5-2 (32 points; 0.727)
New Jersey: 14-6-3 (31 points; 0.674)
New York Islanders: 13-10-2 (28 points; 0.560)
Pittsburgh: 13-8-1 (27 points; 0.614)
Philadelphia: 11-10-3 (25 points; 0.521)

Northeast Division:
Ottawa: 13-7-3 (29 points; 0.630)
Boston: 12-9-2 (26 points; 0.565)
Toronto: 11-10-2 (24 points; 0.522)
Buffalo: 10-10-3 (23 points; 0.500)
Montreal: 10-10-3 (23 points; 0.500)

Central Division:
Detroit: 17-5-2 (36 points; 0.783)
Saint Louis: 16-5-2 (34 points; 0.739)
Nashville: 15-5-2 (32 points; 0.727)
Chicago: 9-12-3 (21 points; 0.438)
Columbus: 7-13-2 (16 points; 0.364)

Northwest Division:
Vancouver: 16-3-4 (36 points; 0.783)
Calgary: 10-7-4 (24 points; 0.571)
Colorado: 10-9-3 (23 points; 0.523)
Edmonton: 9-11-3 (21 points; 0.457)
Minnesota: 6-12-3 (15 points; 0.357)

Pacific Division:
Anaheim: 16-4-4 (36 points; 0.750)
Phoenix: 12-5-5 (29 points; 0.659)
San Jose: 13-9-3 (29 points; 0.580)
Dallas: 11-11-3 (25 points; 0.500)
Los Angeles: 8-8-6 (22 points; 0.500).

Interesting to note that looking at the Southeast Division it's definitely a race to the bottom per say. In the 55 days this year the team in the Southeast with the most points is the Carolina Hurricanes with 26 out of a possible 42 and a 0.619 record. The Hurricanes are the only team in the Southeast with a record that's better than 0.500 since New Years Day. Ironically, they started the season so badly, they are the one team in the division who are most certainly "sellers" in the short time before the trade deadline as they are on track for a season point total that likely will end up with 86 points at best. In other words, the best they can likely hope for is to find themselves 2 points on the back side (wrong side) of the forecasted 88 point peak of the bubble. However, they can certainly play the role of spoilers for their Southeast Division rivals who they will play in 9 of their 21 remaining games. Also in case you are wondering they play the Capitals in only one of those 21 remaining games: March 6th at Verizon Center. Only 6 of the Capitals remaining 21 games are against Southeast Division foes: Carolina, once on March 6th at Verizon; Tampa Bay once in DC on March 9th and once in Tampa on April 2nd; Winnipeg once in Alberta on March 16th and once in DC on March 23rd; and Florida once at Verizon Center on April 5th the Caps final home game of the 2011-2012 regular season. Given the Caps records so far this season against their division rivals (10-6-2) it's kind of a shame they don't have more games left against those division foes, of course it's also a shame the Caps can't play the 2011-2012 Montreal Canadians at least 14 of their remaining 21 games as well.

Looking at the Northeast Division team's play since 1/1/2012 you can see the "hottest" team in the Division has been the Ottawa Senators who are playing very well after getting the season off to a relatively slow start. Also of note, eight (8) of the Senators remaining 20 regular season games are against Northeast Division rivals, including two against the Bruins who they are battling for first in the Division. If the Senators are able to win all four of their remaining games against the Maple Leafs and Bruins (three are against the boys from beantown) they could well overtake Boston and finish the season with the second seed in the Eastern Conference. Also, despite dealing with a spate of injuries this past month, Boston is still playing solid hockey and thanks to Tim Thomas and Tukka Rask never a team to give up points easily to opponents. If recent past efforts are solid predictors of future performance then Toronto will continue to struggle with getting off the bubble and end the season with between 85 and 90 points. That means tonight's game in Toronto is going to be an important one for both the Capitals and the Maple Leafs.

The Atlantic Division has been the toughest division in the Eastern Conference all season and the last eight weeks have not been any different in that regard then the first three months of the NHL season. That said the last eight weeks have seen the Philadelphia Flyers struggle while the New York Rangers continued to soar and the New jersey Devils came alive. To be clear even though the Flyers have the worst record since January 1 in the Division - EVERY team in the Atlantic has a record that is greater than 0.500, they are the only division in the NHL that can make that claim though the Pacific has two teams who are at 0.500 even since New Years Day and no one below 0.500 as well. It's pretty much a toss up in my view as to which division is the toughest in the NHL right now between the Atlantic or the Pacific. I guess that's a good thing if you like the beach. As for the battle to win this division, despite the resurgence of the Devils, the Rangers looked pretty unstoppable until their last two games, it will be interesting to see what they do in Buffalo tonight.

The Central Division led by the Detroit Red Wings and Saint Louis Blues have been the standard of consistency. Their standings remain the same wether you are looking at the entire season or just that stretch of it since January 1. Both the Red Wings and the Blues are battling each other for the Division, as well with the Canucks for as the Western Conference title. Ironically only two of the remaining 61 regular season contests the Blues, Red Wings and Canucks play are between each other so their performance against other Division and Conference foes will determine who wins the Central Division and the Conference. the most important team in that mix is likely to be the Nashville Predators who play the Blues once in Saint Louis on March 27th; the Red Wings twice more (3/10 and 3/30). Another interesting team likely to play a factor in the mix is also the Anaheim Ducks who have the third best record in the NHL since New Years Day, of the Ducks remaining 21 games, they play the Blues twice, the Red Wings twice, the Predators once and the Canucks once...

In the Northwest Division, here too the standings remain unchanged if the season had started on 1/1 instead of the first week of October. Additionally, just like the actual full season standings, the Vancouver Canucks are poised to pretty much lap their division foes. In fact Vancouver's relative between themselves and their division rivals is even great since January 1st as it has been over the full season. Since January 1st the Canucks are 6 games ahead of the Flames and since October they are 10 games (20 points) ahead of Calgary. The one difference is a likely bright spot for Calgary, they could finish the season with as few as 85 and as many as 95 points, but since New Years they are playing better and better hockey, since January they are 0.571 but over their las ten games they are playing 0.700 hockey. In short, the trend is the Flame's friend right now and thirteen of their remaining 21 games are at home in Calgary where they have they have a season long 0.625 record and where they have a 6-3-1 record in the last 10 games played in the Saddledome. As important as Calgary's own play in their remaining games is to whether or not they make the playoffs, so too is the play of the Chicago Blackhawks, Dallas Stars, San Jose Sharks and Phoenix Coyotes. The Blackhawks are 4-6-0 in their last ten games and have the worst record in that stretch of any team in the Western Conference Playoff battle not named San Jose who are 3-6-1, but again more on the Pacific Division shortly. If Calgary and Chicago continue the play they've each had over the last ten games through the next ten games, they will find themselves within a point of each other and battling for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. In the case of Calgary that's not bad for a team who finds themselves training their division leaders by 10 complete games with just 21 games remaining in the season. In short unless something like the roof blowing off Vancouver's arena, there's pretty much no other way Calgary will be playing hockey this post season.

That all brings us to what is shaping up to be the most interesting Division in the NHL to follow for the remaining six weeks of this regular season - the Pacific. How bad was the Anaheim Ducks first three months of the 2011-2012 season, well they've played 0.750 hockey since january 1st, the third best record in the league and they are still: i) in last place in their division and ii) at best going to finish on the bubble and likely needing some help to make the playoffs. that said, for any #Caps fans, if you needed proof that bruce Boudreau knows how to coach in the NHL, well the Anaheim Ducks record since January 1 of 16-4-4 ought to be it. Further, the Ducks team goal differential over their opponents during that 24 game span is +11 also their GAA over those 24 games is only 2.04 vs a GFA of 2.92, in other words this is a team that is playing and winning stingy hockey, "the right way." As you can imagine if there's a possibility that the way things are going the team at the bottom of the division could end up on the right side of the bubble and in the playoffs, AND the rest of the division is also playing 0.500 hockey or better over the past eight weeks things could be getting pretty interesting "on the left coast" of the NHL. They are. Anaheim could finish with as many as 94 points and in the playoff race. San Jose is trending the other way, the Division leaders are 0.580 since 1/1/2012 and just 0.350 in their last ten games. It's entirely possible if San Jose doesn't turn things around they too could finish with as few as 88 points and out of the playoffs. Meanwhile the rest of the division is trending as follows. Phoenix is on fire they are 9-0-1 in their last ten games and 0.659 since New Years, they will likely win the division with between 98 and 103 points, though they could finish with as few as 94 points I just don't see that happening unless some key parts of this team gets hurt. Dallas will likely finish with between 85 and 92 points; they are in a dog fight. The Stars remaining 21 games includes playing the Vancouver Canucks four times; additionally they play the Calgary Flames, another "bubble team" three more times. As far as "four point games" against division rivals, the Stars play San Jose three times, and Anaheim once, so at least eleven of their remaining 21 games are shaping up to be potentially battle royales. That leaves us with the enigmatic, at least this season, Los Angeles Kings. The Kings are 0.500 since January 1 and 0.540 over the entire season; LA is likely to finish the season with between 83 and 90 points. How's that for a bubble team? The Kings remaining schedule involves 12 road games and 9 home games, since the Kings are 12-9-8 (0.552) on the road, vice 15-13-4 (0.531) at home that's likely not a factor in how they finish the season. The Kings' remaining schedule involves playing a pretty balanced schedule against predominately higher quality opponents, they only have 6 of their remaining 21 games against opponents who are under 0.500 since January 1. They likely need to raise their game "a little" above the 2-6-2 level they've displayed over their past ten outings to come close to being on the top, let alone the "right side" of the bubble; but that's why they actually play the games on the ice.

As for prognostications about "my team" the Washington Capitals, I am steadfastly avoiding doing that. It's clear by the fact that Alexander Ovechkin is playing through an injury, the team knows they need to play to win every one of their remaining 21 games and they are ready to try and do that. Last night's 4-1 win over a pretty hapless, or at least a Hal Gill-less, Montreal was a solid outing. Tonight's second of back to back nights, away game against a much more solid playing Toronto Maple Leafs team will be a real test. I'm hoping for another solid performance and will be watching here at home and cheering for the boys. Some things I liked about last night's game at Verizon:
1) A solid leadership performance by @Ovi8;
2) Great game and two way hockey by Sasha Semin;
3) Joel Ward - off the schneid;
4) Mike Green well on the way to getting his game and timing back;
5) Nuevy made all the saves he should have made and more than enough of the really tough ones the team needed him to make;
6) Blue liners looked pretty solid all night.

Of course it's a lot easier to be positive after a W and two points but you have to take things one game at a time. As for tonight in Ottawa:

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Capitals 3 - Panthers 0, 10/18/2011 Brief Retrospective

Last night the Capitals hosted the Florida Panthers at Verizon Center and they beat them 3 - 0.

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Okay maybe that retrospective was a bit too brief ... but first let's review our top questions before the game:

1) "Will Tomas Fleischmann show up for the game or continue to be nearly invisible?"
"Flash" wasn't totally "invisible" but it wasn't a performance that made it self evident why he is the second highest paid member of the team.

2) "Will Ovi come alive and electrify us with something like a hat trick"
Captain Ovechkin had one assist and 4 hits and turned in an overall solid but unremarkable (for him) performance.

and 3) "Will Vokoun shut out his former team just one game after they put up big numbers?"
Yep, Tomas Vokoun got his first shutout of the season and his first shutout as a Washington Capital at the expense of his former team last night making 20 saves and earning the games first star.

Other quick hits -

* As slow as Ovi's start has been, Sasha Semin, Dennis Wideman, Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson and Jason Chimera have been pretty darn quick. Backstrom has 1 goal and 5 assists for 6 points in 5 games; Semin and Wideman each have 2 goals and 3 assists for 5 points MoJo has 3 goals and an assist and Chimera has 4 goals. Putting in into perspective both MoJo and Chimera are on a 60+ goal pace for the 82 game season. While obviously it's highly unlikely for them to maintain that pace, my point is we wanted/needed secondary scoring and with the three scoring lines the Capitals now have "we've" got it.

* So far this season, ice time is much more equitably managed and in the end that should mean the entire team is likely to stay healthier. Right now the ATOI leader is Mike Green but his ATOI is only 22:31 down from over 25:00 two years ago and 49th in the league so far this season, and "Game Over" is the only Capital in the top 60 in this statistical category. That means the Capitals are a much more "balanced" team and to me that means they are a tougher team to prepare for and play against than they were even just last season.

* This year's Capitals are a much, much more physical team than the Capitals of the last three seasons. Team hit leader Troy Brouwer is second in the league in "hits" with 24, as a team in five games so far this season the Capitals have "dished out" a total of 140 hits that's an average of 28 hits per game vice an average of 24 hits per game last season, that's a 16.7% increase. Also that increase in "toughness" is pretty evenly distributed throughout the entire Capitals' roster - for example, Jeff Schultz had a total of 53 hits in 72 games played last season, an average of 0.73 hits per game, so far this season he's credited with 4 hits in 5 games or .8 hits per game, a ~10% increase. Also anecdotally I think he's hitting people harder - I say that because you notice his hits more, this season I'm surprised he "only" has 4 hits and looking at last season's stats I'm surprised he had more than 40 hits. I think this also says the Capitals are a tougher team to play this season in this regard as well.

* Alexander Semin is indeed one of the biggest and best TWO WAY talents in the NHL today. That's all I'm sayin' and I'm just sayin' He's also really fun to watch play this game they call Ice Hockey. Last night his stat line was 1 goal, 1 assist, +2, 16:03 TOI in 18 shifts, 4 shots, 1 giveaway, and two take aways. He's really good; that's especially obvious when you compare his stat line to a less talented, but clearly NHL caliber player in a similar game. Take for example, oh say, somebody like Matt Bradley. Last night's stat line for Matt Bradley reads: 0 goals. 0 assists, 0 points, -1, 13:04 in 18 shifts, 1 attempt blocked, 1 hit and 1 takeaway. Both players earned their salaries last night but Semin clearly played with "heart" and was a far more impactful (is that a word) player on his 18 shifts. Again "just sayin'".

* Marcus Johansson clearly wants to make sure he gets a sweater EVERY night. He also has really shown that the wrap around "stuff" goal is not dead. Watching him score his third goal last night gave me flashbacks to how the Flyers' Bobby Clarke would often score "back in the day." While I'm talking number 90, the 28-90-22 line is "pretty fun" to watch and really good so far this season.

* This Vokoun guy the Caps picked up in the off season - I think he's going to be pretty good for them... actually i think he's a "beast" in a really, really good way.

Next up, the Philadelphia Flyers in Philly, tomorrow night.

LETS GO CAPS!!! Make it "6" okay?

Heading Out to Verizon Center

Well in just a few short minutes I'll be off to Verizon Center to see the Caps vs. Panthers in their first of six contests this season. In their last game the Panther's offense came alive beating Tampa Bay 7-4. The Caps are now 4-0-0 and looking for "one for the thumb" and to take a franchise record for the start of the season. I am intrigued by the sub-plots - yes the rehash of the will Brads really apologize to Sasha or is he just saying that? etc. are NOT what I'm talking about.

I'm talking about Florida has 12 new/different players from last year and the Caps have Dennis Wideman and Tomas Vokoun who last year were Caps. The big question for me on the Florida side of things is "Will Tomas Fleischmann show up for the game or continue to be nearly invisible?" For the Caps I wonder "Will Ovi come alive and electrify us with something like a hat trick and will Vokoun shut out his former team just one game after they put up big numbers?

Tune in later tonight for the answers - same "bat time" same "bat channel"

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!

Time to Catch Up On Hockey After Another Busy Week At Work...

Well I spent two days in Charleston, SC for work - they were productive for me and the company and I was there when the South Carolina Stingrays announced they need to find a new head coach as theirs is off to the AHL (Abbotsford, surprise,) to become an assistant there. Not much news on the free agent market last week, not much news about the Capitals this week so I really didn't miss much immersing myself in the new job - which is a necessary task at this point, and frankly one I'm enjoying.

Here's an interesting listing of the NHL's top salaried players and whether they are worth it or not - I found it interesting because i agree with all their evaluations. Trade rumors, stupid trade rumors, IMO, apparently persist involving Alexander Semin and this post elsewhere earlier this week on the web, captures my thoughts a bunch better than I likely could ever succinctly many of the reasons I am such a big proponent and fan of "the other Alex." In other Capitals news, it appears the Caps are thinking Tom Poti will likely start the season on Long Term Injured Reserve (LTIR), while Poti and his agent say he is working towards being ready and fit at the start of training camp. In other Capitals related news, the Caps freed up another of their 50 available contract slots when former first-round draft pick Anton Gustafsson (aka "Baby Gus") cleared unconditional waivers Thursday and his contract has been terminated by the Capitals. According to agent J.P. Barry, Gustafsson intends to play in Switzerland this coming season.

My favorite Capitals player quote of the week comes from off-season, veteran pick-up Roman Hamrlik in this blog post over at WaPo by Katie Carrera:

“I think when you’re young, you just play — you don’t think about it, you just work hard,” Hamrlik said when asked about when he became more active as a leader. “Four, five years ago when I signed with Calgary and Montreal you’re at that age when you kind of figure it out and you try to win as a team.”

I like some many things included in what Hamrlik had to say, I could have picked several other quotes from him in the post, but this one - the "you try to win as a team." part just struck a chord with me, even more than a few other statements that he said and I liked.

The time ... the time you ask, Caps Fans. I'm with Peerless - the time is NOW... yep, I too think it's time to "come out of the closet" and declare what I really think. I really think this team is ready now. Will it happen? Well if I knew that, I'd be a rich guy and I'm not so I'm a just saying...

I don't know about y'all but it's been hard for me to think about ice hockey this past week given the heat, and all - ice cube in a nice gin and tonic maybe, but ice hockey has been a stretch... In any case I am still rally pleased where where my favorite team - the Capitals - are right now and I'm sure I'll be really "jazzed" when the start of training camp rolls around.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Lucky Number of the Night Last Night?

So if you were at the Caps Game last night or watched it "on the telly" and you are a Capitals fan, you're probably pretty smug and content this morning. I know I am. However I do one question on my mind - what was the lucky number last night? Was it 900, 600, 200, 6, 5, or 1? I've contemplated the preponderance of evidence on hand and concluded it was definitely 5. Sure some people are picking 6 because last night was the Capitals 6th straight win and the Caps clearly now have the longest in process winning streak in the NHL, and while last night Alexander Ovechkin notched the Sixth (6th) hundredth point of his short NHL career, there's nowhere near the preponderance of sixes occurring last night as there were fives. As for the other choices one (1) also had two occurrences - Braden Holtby's first NHL shutout and Marco Sturm's first point as a Washington Capital. There was only one occurrence of the number 900 BUT 900 points in an NHL career, the plateau that "new guy" Jason Arnott attained last evening - that's a big deal for sure. Same with 200 points, for a defenseman, as "new guy" Denis Wideman attained last evening as well. Make no bones about it all those other numbers denote notable accomplishments and are worthy of mention and even discussion to some degree. BUT last night the number 5 reigned supreme here's where it popped up:

A) Caps scored more than goals scored 5 or more goals for the first time in 10 games and have now scored five (5) or more goals a luck 13th time last night - okay I'm stretching - they scored 5 goals.

B) Five (5) Washington Capitals had notable nights and achieved career milestones last night: Alex Ovechkin (600+ points); Jason Arnott (900 points), Dennis Wideman (200 points), Marco Sturm (fist point as a Capital), and Braden Holtby (first career NHL shutout).

C) At the end of the game Braden Holtby completed his fifth straight perfect (scoreless) period since coming into the Tampa Bay game in relief of Michal Neuvirth.

D) Last night's win meant that for the month of March, the Capitals are now 5-0, it was the fifth win of the month.

E) During ongoing six (6) game winning this was the fifth (5th) game that both Alex Ovechkin and Alexander Semin each had at least one point. It was actually the sixth (6th) straight game that Ovechkin had a least one point - he's gotten 11 points (4 goals and 7 assists) during the past six games while Semin has 6 points (4 G, 2A) in those six (6) games - so on this particular point of fact, I'd say both the number 5 and the number 6 resonate equally, IMO. However if your counting, the number 5 has 5 instances of note while the number six only has three ...

A couple other final comment about last night's game: It seemed to me while I was watching the game from my usual seat in Section 103 and was confirmed today looking at the stats that pretty much every one of the Capitals had a good game. That said I was particularly impressed by the performances last evening of both Marcus Johansson and Brooks Laich. MoJo had a great game in 21 shifts he logged 18:44 TOI, 1 SOG, 1 Hit, 2 Takeaway, was +1, was 4 for 7 (57%) in the faceoff circle and had 1 point - an absolutely beautiful assist on one of Ovechkin's two goals during a 2 on 0 breakaway. Laich played Center last evening, and logged 16:44 TOI on 25 shifts, usually between Chimera and Fehr. During those 16:44, "Brooksie" put up a gaudy 15 for 21 (71%) win rate in the face-off circle, led the Capitals in hits with 5, had one blocked shot, 1 SOG, an assist and was +1 on the evening. Among defensemen, they all had good games. Jeff Schultz was the only defensemen that played less than 15:00 (he logged 13:33 on 19 shifts and finished the evening +2. Dennis Wideman, what can you say - led the team with 23:34 TOI on 24 shifts, finished the evening with an assist - his 200th point, was +1 and had three (3) hits and seven (7) blocked shots, the Caps had a total of 14 blocked shots, so if you are counting Wideman had 50% of them.

I'm actually not into numerology, though I do tend to track a team to that "100 point season, threshold this time of year, especially if they are "my team." As far as that particular number goes, the Caps are now on pace for a 103+ point season. That would be the Capitals third 100+ point season in a row. That's a good thing since it looks like unlike last season when for the first time since the "lock-out" it took 88 points to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, it will take at least 92, and even as many as 94 points to make the playoffs in the NHL's Eastern Conference and it wouldn't surprise me to see it take 96 points to make the playoffs in the Western Conference.

Okay so next up are the Carolina Hurricanes, tomorrow night here at home at Verizon Center. LETS GO CAPS!!!

The Last Nine Days: Caps Go 1-1-1 Before the All Star Break & Re-Sign Alexander Semin

Well it's been a busy week and a half at work for me so I haven't had time until now to really look at and reflect on anything to do with the enjoyable diversion that following NHL Hockey is for me. In that time the Caps played three games and now we're in the All Star Game Break. My last blog post recapped a 2-1 win by the Caps over the 29th place New York Islanders on Thursday January 20th, in Uniondale, NY in front of 9,119 fans - that's right under 10,000 were at the game. The next game the Caps faced off against the Maple Leafs in Toronto on Saturday January 22nd and came away with a 4-1 win in front of 19,554 fans. Then on Monday January 24th, the Caps hosted the New York Rangers at Verizon Center and lost 2-1 in Overtime, though that game was their fifth in a row where they captured at least one point. The Caps last game before the All-Star break was against the Thashers in Atlanta where they lost 1-0 in regulation, despite throwing 36 shots on goal at Thrashers' goaltender Ondrej Pavelec and getting a 0.958 SV% (23 of 24 SOG) performance from Semyon Varlamov.

All in all the Capitals closed out the month of January with a 5-3-4 record (0.583), and went into the All Star Break with 63 points in 51 games played (0.618) and on track for between 99 and 105 points depending on how you choose to base your extrapolations. That's all good, of course there's plenty to worry about the biggest worry has to be where has the Capital's prolific offense gone - in the 12 games they played in January they've averaged only 2.00 GF/Game. Two ways to make winning points in the NHL hard are to score 2.00 goals or less per game and giving up the first goal to your opponents. I've already covered the fact the Caps have averaged only 2.00 goals/game in the 12 games in January; they've also given up the first goal and had to play "catch-up" in 7 of their 12 games in the month. In many ways and for many reasons I think the root cause for both issues, at least during the first half of the month were the same - just not skating hard enough to the net at the start of the game. Fortunately, since the 15th of the month the Caps have played hard and during the last six games of the month have scored first 50% of the time, now if they could just score one more goal at least half the time. The truth is the Caps are on track to make the playoffs but they really do need to get some more offense going and of course there's the power-play or lack there of to worry about. It really makes one wonder how the Caps managed to grab 14 points this past month.

In off ice news, the Caps signed left wing Alexander Semin to a 1 year contract extension for a reported $6.7M for the 2011-2012 season. Now we can only hope that when play resumes after the All Star Game break, #28 is healthy and re-finds his scoring touch. I am very happy to see Semin's contract extended.

Next up will be the Montreal Canadiens at Verizon Center on Tuesday, February 1st. I'll be there and am quite excited looking forward to the game.

LETS GO CAPS!!!

How About Those Capitals?

Yes how about our/your/my Washington Capitals. This is what I just saw posted over at Japer's Rink ...

The Noon Number
3.8 - Caps' shooting percentage during their current four-game losing streak, down from 10.7% over the previous 26 games.

Well that says something for sure, especially when you understand that's just the number based on actual shots on goal that got through and the number looks even worse when you consider the attempts that were blocked or missed the net. There is no doubt the Capitals are slumping right now and as a fan watching a slump is nothing but painful anguish. However, I've gotta believe living through it as a coach or player has to be a lot, lot harder. The crazy thing here is that when you look at the comments, etc. on various message boards, etc. there is just so, so much total drivel in response to this. From statements that amount to crazy conclusions that these sorts of numbers and the past four games mean that Alex Ovechkin will never win a Stanley Cup to things like this all is total, unequivocal proof that Bruce Boudreau is a lousy coach, Mike Green isn't a good defenseman, etc. To me all of it - and I mean all of, also actually including this blog post - my own thoughts and words should totally be ignored by the coaches and players as they and they alone are the ones who can and must change and "fix" whatever it is that really needs fixing.

What am I talking about you justifiably ask. I'm saying that a group of professional athletes and coaches - the ones on the Washington Capitals - are a talented, driven team. They are all getting paid hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars to play and WIN ice hockey games. I'm not sure of much but I'd bet and bet A LOT that these guys might not have the answers this second, and they really didn't seem to have the answers last night while they were playing the Florida Panthers. So what can and should be done about this? I really do not know as far as what can and should be changed, I do know that whatever changes do need to get done, they seem to me to be about being a team - using this reaction to the current issues and adversity as a reason to bond together and be a team. It's needs to be a lot, lot more about things like Ovechkin's stick salute to DJ King while King was in the box serving his five minute fighting major after Ovechkin scored in the third period of the game against Toronto on Monday night and a LOT LOT less about looking for things to blame or quick fixes and heroics by single players to "fix this". It's clear every and I mean EVERY one of these guys, including Coach Boudreau is frustrated and looking for answers. I am absolutely not going to sit here and say that people should be dodging the tough questions or not stepping up and identifying issues. I am going to say that for a team to be a team when things are going like this, everyone has to shoulder a portion of "the blame" because in the end everyone is as much a part of the problem as they are the solution. We need to recognize this is an excellent hockey team, they are playing below the level they are possible of, no issue and they need to make some adjustments to fix that.

That being said, they are not going to win all their remaining regular season games nor will they make it through all four playoff rounds without a loss or even a bad game. We fans and the management are expecting a lot from this team - rightfully, it's a very, very talented team. However that does create a pressure cooker for them at times. So here is a change that I don't think you need to be a world class athlete to make since it's really about leadership and dealing with adversity, etc. The first thing I would do if I were Bruce Boudreau is I'd stop calling out players - ANY players to the media in his post game pressers. I'd also tell the players I wasn't going to do it, but that doesn't mean I have any issue with them taking exception to their OWN performance on any given night. I'd also encourage players - win or loose - to point out and to teammates who had good games and did good things. I know, you're hearing "kumbayah" being sung in the background. I'm not saying be ridiculous or practice denial, I'm just saying at this point the emphasis needs to be you win or loose AS A TEAM. So here's some not so bland comments all of which are okay in my book and some that would be way out of bounds as well in this regard.

Fine post game comments after a loss like last nights to Atlanta:

1A: "We got frustrated after the first period and didn't stick to the game plan like we should have in the second and third periods."

2A: "Vokoun played well, we didn't make it as hard on him as we should have and the Panthers picked up on our frustrations and were able to bait us into shooting from the perimeter too much in the second and third periods."

3A: "Well, I really wouldn't fault Varley for any of the goals, I'm sure like just about every goaltender that ever lived he'd like them "all back" but tonight on at least two of the three he made the first two stops, we just didn't give him enough help and allowed the Panthers to get even more chances than the first two."

Post comments that I don't think help the situations at all - and seem to be the type of comments we are hearing these days (all be it with a lot of exaggeration and satire laced in) in reverse order:

3A: "Well we didn't loose tonight because of having a young goaltender. We just sure didn't backcheck or play defense well a lot of the times. I mean go back and look at Bernier goal, I mean, jeez, Carlson takes out Alzner who is sprawled in Varley's way and the guy gets the third whack at the puck that's right on the doorstep. I know Carlson's a rookie and he and Alzner get better every game but we just gotta do better. The forwards could have been back checking deeper and maybe ..."

2A: "Okay so we come into the locker room at the first intermission and I see them down after that late score by Florida. It's my job to build them up and I give them my usual good words on that that should work. However, they don't go do it. I mean hey Ovechkin isn't scoring much lately, even Semin hasn't scored in a while, Backstrom where'd he go? Knuble almost nothing all year. Heck you'd think Green would take advantage of things lately - heck he loves to score and instead he goes out there and throws his body around. Don't look at me on this one guys, talk to those guys, why they can't find the back of the net and don't keep driving it and revert to perimeter shots on a guy like Vokoun is beyond me."

1A: "So last game we get that great "I'm back in the bigs effort from MattyP and you know we don't win. This game we let these guys put one in on a third whack at the puck with seconds left in the first period, then we let them put one in on a third whack at the puck about halfway through the second period, then we give them a power play with just under 2:30 left in the game to kill any momentum we might have AND we let them score the third goal of the game. First period was fine, Vokoun frustrated us but we stuck with the game plan. Last two periods - you know that scene from that "Replacements" movie that Keneau Reeves is in and that speech about "quicksand" well s#&t next time we have an intermission right after a late goal forget about the whole coach is happy pep talk, forget about showing video and you know maybe actually coaching, forget about talking to Ovechkin about maybe trying moving things around and giving him some time on the off wing, forget about pointing out that the real issue is we didn't score when we had man advantages and people got to get in a guy like Vokouns face, forget about admitting to the team that putting MP85 on the first power play unit might not have been my best idea of the season and taking my share of the heat/blame - I'm gonna talk about freakin' BEES AND SPIDERS - yep you heard me right. It's all the best players faults because they weren't the best players tonight and they are making me and my Mercedes Benz "cup holder" commercial look really bad. I'm so pissed right now I could be Joh Tortorella..."


What changes should they make - I don't know but the coaching staff and the team need to do three things to fix this:
1) Communicate;
2) Get On the Same Page are: the issues and changes that need to be made;
3) Make the changes, stick to the revised game plan and "Just Do It>"

To do that if it were me in charge here's what I'd do if it were my call though relative to a process to address this:
1) Spend a bunch of time together looking at the video;
2) Have the Coaches tell them what they think the problems and mistakes have been - but not the changes ... yet..
3) Let the players have a players only meeting to discuss it and come up with some suggestions and hold themselves accountable for some of this.
4) Concurrently brainstorm with ALL the coaching staff and make some changes - also setup a lineup that we will stick with for at least the next 5 games no matter what except if somebody goes sick or injured.
5) Get back together with the Team present the plan and then if we agree with any of their comments/suggestions tweak the plan and lineup that will be used for the next five games.

Put in place two inviolate rules for the next five games and post-game comments to the press and fans:
1) Stick to the Plan - Keep executing the plan and approach the coach's call for whether it's relative to shift length, distance from the net for shots, etc. - Just Do It.
2) Stick Together - everyone, - No more negative waves, just like oddball says in Kelly's Heroes. No more calling anybody out before or after or between games. Do whatever it takes to bring this team together both on the ice and off it so they play more team focused hockey - every minute of every game.

Then, I'm pretty sure when we say "How about those Capitals?" I think we'll be doing so "in a good way."

LETS GO CAPS!!! AND Don't forget to post at least five write in votes every day for Alexander Semin on your All Star Ballots.

A TWO Point Night At Verizon Center: Capitals 5 - Bruins 3

Well it might have been a little more exciting of a game than it had to be but the Capitals came away with the only two standings points given out at the conclusion of tonight's NHL game at Verizon Center. What I saying to you is simply that the Capitals had a Two Point Night and the Bruins had a No Points night. Yesterday, I wondered if the Capitals would solve the Bruins and Tim Thomas; the answer to that question may have been open through the end of last evening's first period but it was answered roundly by the Caps during the second period. A period that saw the Bruins and Thomas yield not one, not two but three goals to the Capitals. Two goals by defensemen and a third while the Capitals were short-handed off the stick of Alexander Semin. Of course this was the first time this regular season that Tim Thomas yielded more than two goals in a game and he yielded three in a single period.

Through the entire first period both teams played a tight. tight game to a 0-0 tie. Both goaltenders looked solid and the team defense in front of them both was even better. At the end of the first period the Caps had outshot the Bruins 8-3 and as I said, neither team had scored.



Then the second period rolled around and the Capitals broke the ice on a Tyler Sloan wrister through traffic at just less than a minute into the second period. Next came a Mike Green curl, drag, wait for Thomas to commit and net a wrister high on Thomas' glove side at the 12:26 mark of the period. Then with Alexander Ovechkin off the ice, in the sin bin, for a slashing penalty; Mike Green and Alexander Semin combined for a work of art short-handed goal by Semin at the 17:50 mark of the period to put the Capitals up 3-0. Semin celebrated that goal by ending up sprawled on the ice behind the net, pounding his fists on the ice. It may have been a strange looking celebration to some, but the goal was scored by an act of hockey beauty.



Bruins' coach Claude Julien switched netminders when the Bruins came out to start the third period with Tuukka Rask in goal. His team responded and for whatever reason the Caps found the game tied 3-3 after Boston scored two powerplay and one even strength goal less than 10 minutes into the period. Now it was Capitals coach Bruce Boudreau's turn to swap out goalies putting Braden Holtby in for Michal Neivirth after Shawn Throton tied the game at 3 ALL at the 10:10 mark of the third period. Thorton scored at even strength on a 2 on O breakaway but it was a save the Capitals needed Michal Neuvirth to make for them. Braden Holtby came in and did what was required of him, stopping all four (4) shots he faced in the final 10:09 of the game. During those ten minutes, the Capitals managed to return to form and score an even strength goal and an empty net goal to finish the game on top. The first response goal, the game winner for the Capitals, came off a faceoff win by Boyd Gordon that he got back to John Carlson and "Captain America: was able to put a slapshot through traffic past Rask at the 13:25 mark to put the Capitals back in control of the game. Then at the 19:08 mark with Rask on the bench in favor of an extra skater, Alex Ovechkin tallied an empty netter for his eighth (8th) goal of the season to ice the win for the Capitals.

Next up the Philadelphia Flyers on Sunday at Verizon Center.

LETS GO CAPS!!!

An Ugly Two Points In November Counts The Same As a Smooth Two Points In March ...

Well last night's Capitals - Maple Leafs game ended with the Caps garnering two points while allowing the Maple Leafs to escape the District of Columbia with one. The game ended during the shootout with Alexander Semin winding up and looking like he was trying to blast the puck with a wicked slap shot through the net in a little sliver of the goal that existed between Jonas "Monster" Gustavsson's left arm and the left goalpost. Semin's final game ending goal came after he tied the game at 4 all on the power play at the 14:22 mark of the third period. I'm not sure what Alexander Ovechkin would actually say about that tying goal by Semin, his seventh of the season, but I'll hazard a guess - "sick, absolutely SICK" - though of course if they were talking to each other it would be the Russian translation of "sick, absolutely, totally SICK, Sasha." Seriously it was the move of the game to me. Semin was able to pull the puck back from behind the goal line just past the right side post and "roof it" under the crossbar in what was literally fractions of a second. As Caps coach Bruce Boudreau was quoted in today's Washington Post "When he scored his goal on the power play, there aren't too many guys in the National Hockey League that have hands like that - that can put it there that quickly."

While it was unfortunate the Caps ever got themselves into a situation that required them to come back and tie the game at 4 after leading 3-1 at the start of the third period, I'm not one of those folks who feels like there was any sort of total let down by the Caps at the start of the third period. It wasn't a total let down, it was a poor reaction to the adjustments made by the Maple Leafs at the intermission and a failure to properly match the intensity of the Leafs at the start of the game's final stanza though that gave Toronto the "room" and opportunities they needed to take the lead with three unanswered goals in 7:17 though. It was also a night where the hockey gods didn't smile on the Capitals young goaltender Michal Neuvirth. Neuvey didn't have a bad game but this was certainly his own worst game in a while. None of the goals scored on him were total failures on his part, and at just 22 years of age giving up three even strength goals and one power play goal to a much improved over last season Toronto Maple Leafs team isn't a bad night. Not at all. It's just that Neuvy's last several games have probably spoiled me. Even with last night's game he is 8-3-0, has a GAA of 2.31 and a SV% of 0.920. Contrast that with last night GAA 4.00 and SV% of 0.857. On a positive note for the season going forward I think last night's game might mean that Caps coach Bruce Boudreau might actually let the NHL's October Rookie of the Month have at least one game off this coming weekend, even if Semyon Varlamov isn't back and healthy. Don't get me wrong, I'm totally down with Nevey and the way he is playing but it is a long season and we are only twelve games into it.

Last night's first star according to the press was Alexander Semin, I couldn't agree more. Semin was awesome, even taking into account his two minor penalties. I can't really complain about the refereeing last night - it was consistent - I mean just as I thought the first slashing penalty called against Semin was weak, I also thought the tripping penalty against Luke Schenn on Ovechkin could have gone either way too. The linesmen on the other hand, in particular Tim Nowak ... well if you're going to call icing like he did on two, not one, but by my count two occasions where Alexander Ovechkin beat the Leafs to the puck, then it may as well be an automatic. In fact, given the potential for what is/are basically often pointless injuries to defensemen because of racing to the puck; I am actually all for no-touch icing as a rule change. Yes last night's game was a showcase for why my first two rule changes if I were able to make them would be: 1) every game is worth three points (Regulation Win = 3 points; OT/SO Win = 2 Points; and OT/SO Loss = 1 point); and 2) No Touch Icing in the NHL just like everywhere else in the ice hockey universe today. So in addition to Alexander Semin, I'd be remiss if I didn't point out that last night's #2 Star of the Game was, deservedly, Jason Chimera. I could easily go on as to how well both Chimera and Semin have started this season but I'm choosing to reserve judgement and grading performance trends until at least 25% of the season has been played. That said, last night both Chimera, Semin and Mike Green all had very solid games, as did John Carlson, in my opinion, even though Green finished the evening at -2, he did have 30:20 TOI after all.

The one thing I'd close with relative to commentary on last night's Caps-Maple Leafs game is I had wondered until last night "if the Leafs were for real" this season. They started the season out of the blocks extremely well but have "sputtered" a little of late. That said after watching last night I'm feeling pretty confident in saying they are indeed for real this season. They played pretty well last night and could have won. To be sure, they forced the Capitals to play or attempt to play 60+ minutes and anytime the Caps let up a little, the Maple Leafs were there trying to capitalize on the openings Washington afforded them. The other thing you can get looking at the event summary is that the Leafs are playing as a balanced team - just look at the TOI distribution for them versus the same stats for the Capitals. The Caps need to be able to get more minutes and productive minutes from their third and fourth lines as well as their third defensive pairing then they got last night. The Leaks were playing a full bench last night while the Capitals played a short one, that's why the game went all the way to a shoot out, even though the Capitals had 1:55 of a 4 on 3 man advantage in overtime, in my view.

Well that said two points is two points regardless of whether they are pretty or "gritty" and whether they are obtained in early November or late March. Because of the other action around the league, the Capitals are now tied in points and 1/2 game behind both Tampa Bay and Los Angeles for the lead in the NHL standings. Speaking of which tonight Tampa Bay takes on the Kings in LA that should be a good game to watch, I'm glad I got the Center Ice package...

Elsewhere around the other eight games played in the NHL last night here's what my understanding is of what happened:

Boston @ Buffalo: Bruins 5 - Sabres 2
- Tim Thomas gave up more than one goal against in a game for the first time this season but still skates out of Buffalo with a 7-0-0 start to the season and a league leading 0.720 GAA, a 0.977SV% and 3 shutouts so far this season. The only goaltending category Thomas isn't leading in is Wins, his 7 are one less than Capitals rookie Michal Neuvirth's 8.
- Buffalo gave up two short handed goals in the game, maybe Lindy Ruff would like the option to refuse penalties like you can in football be discussed as a possible rule change?
- The Sabres are now 0-5-1 at home this season.

Pittsburgh @ Dallas: Penguins 2 - Stars 5
- Gotta highlight this hockey fight Sidney Crosby vs. Matt Niskanen. So how's this exchange work - the Penguins loose the services of one of the premiere players in the world and a key to their offense for five minutes while the Stars loose the services of a second pairing d-man for five minutes. How do you guess Dan Bylsma felt about that trade-off?
- The number one "Star" of the game was Loui Ericksson who had two goals and an assist on the night. Both of the twenty five year old Swedish Left Wing's goals were unassisted in that he scored his first on a penalty shot and his second was an even strength unassisted goal.
- Last night's win over Pittsburgh means the Stars are off to a solid 7-4-0 start this season.

Detroit @ Calgary: Red Wings 2 - Flames 1
- Mikka Kiprusoff bounced back from his pasting by the Capitals but it wasn't enough.
- Jimmy Howard's regular season unbeaten streak continues.

Tampa Bay @ Anaheim: Lightning 2 - Ducks 3 (OT)
- Tampa Bay is for real, but even more so than the Maple Leafs.
- Stating the obvious, Stamkos is one of those pretty special players and can make some pretty "sick" moves himself.
- Both Dan Ellis and Jonathan Quick played solid games.
- Selanne to Getzlaf for the game winner in OT, now that's a combo.

New Jersey @ Chicago Devils 5 - Blackhawks 3
- Kovy two assists and looked really good quarterbacking the Devils power play last night.
- Broudeur left the game in the second period with a bruised right elbow but says he will be back in the net next game.
- Hedberg comes in and was victimized for two goals before the Devils battled back.
- Two of the Devils five goals were into an empty net, during the other three when you look at the highlight reel see if you aren't wondering as was I, why Marty Turco was playing so deep in his net at the time.
- The Devils leave the Windy City with a much needed win, does this mean they will start to turn things around? They are now currently 27th out of 30 in the NHL.

Nashville @ Phoenix: Predators 3 - Coyotes 4
- A quick goal by Nashville had the Predators up early.
- The Coyotes battled back and got four goals, all by their blue liners to win the game.
- Three of the four Coyote's goals came off the stick of veteran all-star Ed Jovanovski who got his first career hat trick.

Atlanta @ Florida: Thrashers 4 - Panthers 3
- The Panthers fail to get a point at home despite firing 55 shots on goal.
- For the night Thrashers goaltender Dan Ellis stopped 52 of 55 Panther shots for a SV% of 0.945; Panthers goaltender Tomas Vokoun stopped 19 of 23 for a SV% of 0.826.
- Even though I'd say at least two of the Thrasher goals were gritty, I'd pin this failure to win on the Panther's star goaltender. I'm not saying vetren center Freddy Modin isn't good but Vokoun allowed the 36 year old Swedish winder to put two goals past him and into the twine - including those two goals, Modin has scored just 76 goals in 283 NHL games since the lockout and he's not known as the high scorer he was earlyier in his career, of course much of his post lockout play was in the wide open Ken Hitchcock system in Columbus too... Bottom line is this season for Florida to win, Vokoun needs to play better than he did last night.

New York Islanders @ Carolina: Islanders 2 - Hurricanes 7
- Isles loose their 5th in a row.
- Islander goaltender Rick DiPietro has had much, much better games than he played last night.
- The fast skating Hurricanes went out to a 5-0 lead before the slanders seemed to even start skating with them.
- I'd put the goal by Hurricane's Captain Eric Staal as one of the "prettiest" of the night.

Well there are six games on tap in the NHL tonight. I'll be watching "The Big Bang Theory" - sorry I just love those guys and "she's not bad to look at/watch either - as well as part of the Rangers @ Flyers and Tampa Bay at Los Angeles Kings games. Next up for the Capitals the Bruins return to Verizon Center tomorrow night to take on the Caps for the third time this season. The Caps will be looking to begin to try and split this season's series with the Bruins by besting them for the first time this year. I'll be there for that game as well as Sunday's contest against the Broad Street Bullies.

LETS GO CAPS!!!