Game 8: Quick Recap - Caps vs. Canucks In Vancouver, A "No" Point Night

LETS GO CAPS!!!!
LETS GO CAPS!!!

The Capitals started play of the second of  back to back games in Vancouver less than 20 hours after they walked out of the visitor's dressing room in Calgary's Saddledome.  The Caps haven't had many easy games in Western Canada over the past couple seasons nor in the second games of back to backs so they needed us all rooting for them this past evening in Vancouver.  But without anyone rocking the red at Rogers Arena, the Caps started the game flat, that is all except for Goalie Justin Peters (thankfully.)

1st period: Caps came out slow, Canucks fast, lots of pucks to the net; Justin Peters up to the task; Caps first line flat. Canucks dominated first period out-shooting Caps 14 - 6 and owning the puck for stretches of 60+ seconds regularly. Only thing that kept Caps in the game in first was Justin Peters, he had several highlight reel saves including one at ~11:30 - where he robed Vey after Kuzya had a turnover in the high slot.  First period ended scoreless for either team though.

After luckily escaping the first period the Caps came out firing, Eric Fehr took the breakout pass from Carlson after the faceoff win by Backstrom buck was robbed by Ryan Miller.  The Caps then played the next 5+ minutes with a lot more energy and enthusiasm.  The Caps were working hard and outshot the Canucks 5-1 for the first 5:28 of the period until Marcus Johannson scored to put the Caps up 1-0 with assists from Bruakovsky and Green. Lots of ebb and flow till the 12:47 mark left when Peters robbed the Canucks again thankfully with another highlight reel save on a Canucks odd man rush.  Then the  Canucks kept up the pressure, got a power play where Henrik Sedin scored to tie the game at 1-1 at the 14:00 mark of the second period.  The Caps started to get things going till Joel Ward made an ill advised drop pass, the "flow" changed and the Caps got caught flat footed on a line change at 15:22 and Nick Bonino scored on a snapshot 2-1, Vancouver.  Then Luca Sbisa got down low 25 seconds later, pounded it top corner and put the Canucks up 3-1.  Then the fourth/energy line came out and Liam O'Brien got a redirect and put it top shelf behind Ryan Miller to get the Caps within 1 goal at 17:18; Canucks 3 - Caps 2.  That was the score when the second period ended while the Caps and Canucks were playing 4 on 4 hockey after Burkovsky got a holding penalty at 18:24 and then just about a minute later the Canucks got a bench minor for too many men on the ice.  The Caps were outshot in the second period 10-9 though they out hit the Canucks 9-5 and looked much better in the second period than the first but they needed to come out firing in the tird to make a game of it.

Caps came out strong in the third period but couldn't score, Miller robbed Brouwer at the 5:30 mark. Both teams played well and pretty evenly throughout the final stanza.  The Caps had a power play at the 9:05 mark of the period when Burrows was whistled off for interference but failed to score when Miller robbed Ovechkin and Carlson late in the man advantage. The game ended on a sour note for me as I thought the Canucks should have been called for holding against when he was pulled down on a breakaway but weren't and then Carlson got rightly called for delay of game with 1:38 left to play and Radim Vrbata scored an empty net goal to put the Canucks up 4-2 which is how the game ended.

Next up the Detroit Red Wings at Verizon Center on Wednesday.

LETS GO CAPS!!!

When Will We Caps Fans Be Able To Decide This Is Going To Be A Good Season

So on Sunday Morning I started thinking about the answer to the question "when can I start to comfortably feel this Capitals team might be on track to have a good season and 'go deep" into the playoffs?"  I mean they are off to their best start to a season in several years and are playing harder on the puck than really the past four (4+) seasons, so that prompted me to think about this.
 

My first thought on the answer was ... well the season has to be at least 20% played out so that would be after game 17 - which occurs Saturday, November 15th in Saint Louis against the Blues.  So by that time the Caps will have played ten home games and seven road games; of the 17 games nine (9) will have been against 2014 playoff teams, and seven will have been against Western Conference teams.  That seems to be getting close to enough games to make a good estimation as to how the rest of the season will go for the Capitals, but just to be safe I'd say a few more games might be the conservative way to go before getting confident.  So since the remainder of the month of November's games after the game in Saint Louis on the 15th are six (6) more games that include two (2) games against Western Conference opponents (Arizona and Colorado) and a home and home against the Metropolitan Division Islanders who are playing exceptionally well so far this season, I've decided to wait until after game 23 on Saturday, November 29th in Toronto. 



In many ways that's being exceptionally conservative from a statistical significance perspective, but in a league at this level, where on any given evening any team can beat any other team; and injuries can drastically change how one lineup stacks up against any other team, I think that's the smart thing to do.  Also consider that right now nine (9) of the sixteen Eastern Conference teams are playing 0.600 or better hockey and IMO it's only a matter of time before the Bruins join that group and make it ten (10) before "regression to the norm" starts to pull some of those teams down to the 0.500 +/- level and "the bubble."  While I don't agree many pundits think the Caps will be one of those teams that regresses.  Certainly after the month of November, a 14 game month for the Caps, is behind them and they've played more than 25% of the season we can legitimately decide if the typical level of play of the 2014-15 Capitals can and will continue to be markedly better than the 2013-14 team.  That will especially be true with the understanding that by the end of November the Capitals will have played nine (9) of those games against six (6) different Western Conference teams, and right now there are six (6) teams who are playing 0.750 or better hockey. 



All that said with the Caps heading out west this week for three (3) games in four days against Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver, this road trip will be an important week in further solidifying the team's resurgence.  While every game can in some way be looked at as a measuring stick, three road games in four days are never an easy trip.  For my "money" success in these next three games is any combination of results that equals four (4) or more standings points.  While first up Edmonton is one of only two teams in the league without a two point win so far in this young season, they have some young, elite talent, and two former Caps with "grit" Matt Hendricks and Boyd Gordon who turned 31 years old on Sunday so I don't expect the Oilers to be an easy two points for the Capitals.  Then we have the Calgary Flames on Saturday evening in the Calgary.  The Flames are playing 0.500+ hockey, just finished up a six (6) game road trip with a solid game in Winnipeg and will, like Florida was on this past Saturday evening, be a team that comes at the Capitals with a gritty game, solid defense and  sound goaltending.  That said the Flames will likely have Jonas Hiller vice Kari Rammo in net if they look at past results as a predictor of future/present performance.  Still my point is Calgary will also not be an easy game for the Capitals.  Then Sunday it's the Canucks in Vancouver who are one of those Western Conference Tams playing better than 0.700 hockey - 'nuff said.



So looking forward to Wednesday's game at Edmonton one can probably see from above why getting the season off to a good start is important and much better than getting off to a sluggish, mediocre start that inevitably leads on to "life on the bubble" in January through April.  In the meantime I'll close this musing with my usual sentiment.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!

"The Difference" ... "What's the Difference?" You May Ask

You hear it all the time, someone asks you: "What's the difference?" its a question asked about so many things. Time for instance: "What's the difference between now and 10 days ago or from now?" Well, a lot ... yes ... A LOT really for example, 10 days ago I was hoping the Washington Capitals would/could make the playoffs, I even still had some hope they might win the Southeast Division for a fifth season in a row, then. Ten (10) days from now I'll hopefully be hoping they win their second playoff series of 2012. So, A LOT will/could be different with regard to that particular item of interest to me. Things for example: "What's the difference between being tied 1 game all in a best of seven series and down 2 games to zip?" Well A LOT really, just ask any of the sixteen teams in the 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs but most especially ask the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Vancouver Canucks or the Florida Panthers, or better yet watch the Panthers when they play the New Jersey Devils to day and try to avoid the current predicament the Penguins and Canucks are in. Ten days ago if you had told me we'd be here today with the Caps coming home from Boston after 6 periods of regulation hockey, one full period of playoff overtime, and two partial periods of playoff overtime having allowed a total of just two (2) that's TWO goals against and with the series tied one game apiece against the Boston Bruins; while the Penguins and the Canucks were going on the road to LA and Philadelphia trailing their series two games to nil, I'd have said with as surly and sarcastic tone I could muster: "Yeah, RIGHT, sure ...." But I guess that's why they play these Stanley Cup playoff game things on the ice and not in our minds. Oh and let me just say this relative to "What's the difference?" - what's the difference in having Nicklas Backstrom in the lineup and NOT having Nicklas Backstrom in the lineup? Well it's about the same these last two games against the Bruins as not having Alexander Semin in the lineup and playing the best two way hockey of ANY foward in either Boston or Washington's lineup as having Semin in the Capitals lineup and playing the absolute BEST hockey any of us Washington fans have seen him play, ever. That's the difference. Thank you to the young guns, ALL of them Backstrom, Green, Semin, and Ovechkin for totally showing up so far this series. Also thank you to John Carlson, Brooks Laich, Karl Alzner, and Dennis Wideman who have also been BEASTS on the ice in the last 10 games but especially so in the two playoff games so far against Boston. Actually, I'll go so far as to say, the entire team is looking good, even Jeff Schultz who I have been "ragging on" a far amount during games on my twitter twit stream, has played great, playoff hockey, so far this series.

In fact, the Capitals - Bruins series has been absolutely awesome so far. Great hockey. It just goes to show you, you don't need to see a lot of goals getting scored to watch a really great game of sport. (Are you listening - Gary?) For example, take soccer or as the ROW (Rest of World) calls it football, how many games see more than a couple of goals scored? Not many. Now take an NHL Stanley Cup Playoff game which would you rather have watched, yesterday's 2-1 2OT game between the Caps and Bruins or Friday's 8-5 game between the Penguins and the Flyers? Really ... No, REALLY. Think about this right now after two playoff games:

Goaltender SV% GAA
Braden Holtby 0.973 0.83
Tim Thomas 0.964 0.83
Roberto Luongo 0.891 3.59
Ilya Bryzgalov 0.857 3.93
Marc-Andre Fluery 0.804 5.45.

Is Fluery playing hurt? and I'm not just talking about either physically or mentally but perhaps both right now. We know he is a competitor, or as Dale Hunter might say, "battler" - a term that Hunter needs to find a synonym for, but since I'm superstitious, i hope he's wearing the EXACT same blue suit on Monday he wore yesterday and Dale, even if it gets/has gotten all sweaty and stuff whatever you do, do NOT get it cleaned until either the Capitals win the Cup or loose a playoff game. Seriously, though if you are Dan Bylsma, don't you think about giving Brent Johnson a start in Philly in Game 3? Isn't game 4 too late? One can argue that it's not time to change anything if you are the Flyers, and given I'm suggesting that Dale Hunter change nothing, not even his clothes given the way the Capitals are playing, you know what I'd do if i was coaching the Flyers. Now what about Vancouver? After all even though Bobby Lou is the number one goalie and one of the faces of the franchise, and his backup is an American who only played 33 regular season games to Luongo's 55, Corey Schneider did end the regular season with a SV% of 0.937 and GAA of 1.96 to Lou's 0.919 and 2.41 - might it be a time to give him a chance between the pipe when the Canucks faceoff against the Kings in LA tonight? I mean maybe Luongo has a stomach virus or some other contrived illness management can tell their fan base so they don't have to deal with the malstrom such a move would create. But after all isn't it time to do something different for BOTH Pittsburgh and Vancouver? I mean, hey, what's the difference? Two other things on goalies to think about today. 1) I'm rooting for Jose Theodore to have a great game today, Theo's SV% in game one vs. the Devils: 0.921 and he played better than his GAA of 3.05 indicates. 2) The best goalie so far in the playoffs - well I have to say given the results and overall numbers that would be Jonathan Quick in my book, key numbers Two (2) Wins; SV% 0.946, GAA 2.00. If Quick keeps playing that way and the rest of the Kings keep up the pressure on the Canucks like they have been, it really probably won't matter whether the Canucks play Luongo the rest of the series or give Schneider a chance to show what he's got, it's hard to see the Canucks taking the Kings past five, let alone six games this series.

Now about the Caps - Bruins and game three tomorrow night at Verizon Center. I don't think I've anticipated a Caps game as much, ever. True I've really only been a true Caps fan for the last seven years/seasons. However, I haven't anticipated and been into a playoff series this much since I was growing up a Flyers fan and the broad Street Bullies were on their way to their first Stanley Cup. Really. Also Caps fans please don't think less of me, I have seen the light, haven't I? I've been trying to figure out why I'm so into this series and I think it's because of all the uncertainty I have about the teams and also how much I really, really hope the Caps go deep into the playoffs this season because I really LIKE this team and think they have the right mix of talent and grit for the future long haul as well as to win today. I know that Games 1 and 2 were absolutely TOTALLY AWESOME to watch on TV, and just thinking about how awesome it will be Rock The Red on Monday and Thursday evenings has me squirming in my seat. This Hunter Hockey thing might catch on too. I mean who would you rather be this morning Sidney Crosby, Captain of the Pens down 2-0 to the Flyers with 4 points (3 G and 1A) or Alexander Ovechkin, Captain of the Capitals tied 1-1 with the Bruins and coming to home ice with 1 point (1A)? I'm thinking it's a much better day to be Ovie than Sid, but hey that's just me. Also think about this lifetime in the playoffs, Ovechkin has played 39 playoff games and averages 1.31 points per game, so if you think that eventually players regress or progress to the norm, should the Caps get past Tim Thomas and this very stingy Bruins team, things could get even better for Capitals. That said, we are watching Hunter Hockey in the playoffs for the very fist time and there are A LOT of differences to anything we've seen played in the playoffs these last five seasons. It truly is defense first, in every way - from the way players are pulling the puck into their bodies and physical envelopes and getting control of and protecting it, instead of pushing it away, immediately being in the position to move forward, BUT being exposed for a takeaway; to the protective arc that forms around the Caps goal with three or four players blocking shots whenever the Bruins start to really press things. I don't thing the Caps will change a lot regardless of who they face next if they can get by Boston. Why the "if they can get by Boston" you might ask to which I'll reply, there have been a total of four goals scored so far this series and it definitely could go either way. Now for those of you that thought I might continue the comparison of whether I'd want to be Crosby or Ovechkin - Crosby has played 64 games, averages 1.34 points per game, and has 2 goals and 2 assists so far this year, he's not the reason the Penguins trail 2 games to zip though he has apparently made a couple of mental errors against the Flyers, and he has a Stanley Cup Ring. There are just some comparisons that aren't worth making between Sid and Ovie yet and until the Capitals win their first franchise Stanley Cup, playoff stats are one of them.

In any case, this morning I'd much rather wake up a Washington Capital, San Jose Shark, Chicago Blackhawk, Detroit Red Wing or New jersey Devil then a Pittsburgh Penguin or Vancouver Canuck, that's really all I've got to say about that subject. Oh and about tomorrow night:

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Looking Ahead - Vancouver @ Washington 7PM Faceoff

Well tonight the Caps face off against the Vancouver Canucks at the Verizon Center. Vancouver comes into the game at 2-0-0 having bested their rival, the Calgary Flames on both sides of a Home and Home series. First the Canucks shutout the Flames 6-0 in their home opener on Thursday Night in Vancouver. Then they travelled to Calgary and dealt the Flames a 5-4 overtime loss to the Flames in their home opener at Pengrowth Saddledome to start the season a perfect 2-0-0. The Canucks have started the season with a more potent offense then they displayed much of least season. With 11 goals in two games, the Canucks forwards have been led by Left Wing Daniel Sedin and his twin brother Center Henrik Sedin. Daniel has a league leading 5 points (2 goals and 3 assists), while Henrik is right behind him with 4 points (1 goal and 3 assists). In net, the Canucks are "led" by Roberto Luongo. Luongo finished last season with a GAA of 2.38 and a save percentage of 0.917 in 73 games played. Through the first two games of this season he has a GAA of 1.94 and a save percentage of 0.926. The Canucks come into the "Phone Booth" as a hot team. Caps fans hoping to see former Cap fan favorite Matt Pettinger will, sadly, be disappointed. Pettinger, who was traded late last season for Matt Cooke (now with the Pittsburgh Penguins after the Caps did not seek to resign him in free agency) didn't make the big club and has been assigned to their AHL affiliate the Manitoba Moose.

Looking ahead to tonight's game, its difficult to predict any aspect of how things will play out.

The Caps certainly ought to be able to match offense with the Canucks. based on last seasons statistics, in fact, the Caps should be able to overmatch the boys from Vancouver. However, so far this season, offensively the Canucks have been a different team then last season. Last night the Caps looked like the team they were at the end of last season and should either match or exceed the play of the Canucks, but if the team that played Atlanta is the one at the Verizon Center tonight and the Canucks continue their offensive transformation all bets could be off.

On the defensive side of the net both teams have fairly even blue line corps so that shouldn't be a major factor in the outcome on the defensive side of the puck; on the offensive side of the puck, the Canucks while not having any single match for Mike Green do have a trio of offensively capable Scandinavians: Sami Salo, Mattias Ohland, and Alexander Edler, whose total goal production last year of 25 goals eclipsed Game Over's 18 goals by seven (7). So far in the first two games the only scoring from the Canucks trio has been from Ohland who has one of the Canucks 11 regular season tallies to date. Ohland als has 3 assists, while Salo and Edler both have one assist each. Mike Green has 2 power play goals and 1 assist in 2 games. No one on the Canucks Blue Line brings the magnitude of game changing dynamic to the game that Green does. If Green has a banner night, it could tip the scales as regards the defensive match-up. However, against the gritty hard forechecking and backchecking of Vancouver, he'll also have to be wary of being caught up ice and burned by the Canucks.

In net Roberto Luongo has been a paragon of consistancy over his eight seasons as an NHL goaltender. Luongo has played an average of 74 regular season games each of the past four seasons. During that time his best year long save percentage was and his worst was 0.931 in 2003-2004 and his worst was 0.914 in 2005-2006 with Florida. While Luongo has been consistent and Caps number one goaltender Jose Theodore's career has been peppered with inconstancy, Theodore's best year, 2001-2002 in Montreal, when he won the Hart and Veznia Trophies matches Luongo's best year with a save percentage of 0.931. Theodore's last season results a save percentage of 0.910 over 58 games followed by a stellar first round 4 games - 2 playoff series victory was pretty much the equal of Luongo's 73 game 0.917 save percentage performance. The reality is while you have to give the Canucks an edge here due to Luongo's consistency; both these net-minders have the talent required to steal a game on a good night.

In the intangibles area, the edge goes slightly to the Capitals as they are at home and should be in front of another good crowd who will be Rockin' The Red. Also for Vancouver, this game will be the second of a six game road trip and it'll be following a late finish in their overtime victory on Saturday night in Calgary. However, yesterday was likely a leisurely travel day so they should be rested and their next game isn't until Thursday night in Detroit.

For all these reasons in reality, tonight's game should be an excellent one and for either of these two good teams to win, they'll need to "leave it all out there on the ice." So regarding to tonight's outcome prediction, once again owing to blatant "homerism" call it - CAPS 3, Vancouver 2 in regulation.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!!!!!!!