Is the Trend Really Our Friend? Are the 2014-15 Capitals Really Harder to Play Against Than the 2013-14 model was?

Good Evening Capitals fans and a fine late, late fall evening it is since this evening the Capitals find themselves playing 0.581 hockey for the NHL Regular season to date and once again "on the right side of the bubble.:  Additionally as one of my mentors used to say, "the trend is our friend," and with a record of 6-2-2 (0.700) in their last 10 games and 5-0-2 in their last 7 games the trend is indeed our friend. 

That said, not to be a buzzkill, it is worth noting that so far this season through 31 games the Caps have 36 points and a record of 15-10-6 with 14 ROW while last year at this point (31 games played) they had 36 points and were 17-12-2 with just 10 ROW.  You'll remember last year  when the end of the regular season came along the Capitals all took off their skates and immediately put on their golf shoes.  That's why it is important that two things we all seem to feel right now are true: 1) the trend is indeed our friend and the Capitals can sustain that trend for the remaining 3 1/2 months in this regular season; and 2) the Capitals of 2014-15 are a harder team to play against than the Capitals of 2013 - 14.  So let's take a look and see if the data and facts support those two anecdotal "feelings."

First are they harder to play against?  and Is the trend indeed our friend? Facts/data - through 31 games the Caps this season have earned a standings point in 21 games (67.7%) while last season they had done so in only (61.3%).  This season they have ROW in 45.2 % of their games while last season at this point it was an abysmal ~30%.  By the ~tens last season games 20 - 31 the Capitals went 6-4-1 with 4 ROW (0.650) ; this season's games 20 - 31 the Caps are 6-2-3 (0.750) with 6 ROW.  Seems like the trend is more our friend right now than last season and the difference in ROW is some indication of the results of being harder to play against - the real driver of that is their overall improvement in Corsi For and Corsi Against, IMO as well.  Team Goal Differential to date is +6, at the end of 8 games last season the Caps team goal differential was -5, that's a huge difference that says the Caps are tougher "on the puck" now then last season, IMO.  So when you look at both the basic as well as the "fancy stats" and then also consider the roster's individual stats  so the Caps have balanced scoring more than they've had in a long time, and it's obvious the offense is starting in the defensive zone with the scoring being well supported by the entire Blue Line Corps, the answers are indeed.  Yes the Caps are a much harder team to play against this season than last, and Yes, the trend is our friend. 

BUT fellow Caps fans don't celebrate quite yet, from what I can tell, the Capitals aren't even close to getting off the bubble and being solidly a playoff team quite yet and they have to keep up their current play of 0.700 for another months to be so, They are solidly in the middle of the "bubble pack" right now and we are only 37.8% through the regular season right now. If you look at the league standings the  Caps are in 8th place in the Eastern Conference: 1/2 game behind the Panthers who are in 7th; 2 games behind the 6th place Maple Leafs, 2 games behind the 5th place Canadians, 2 1/2 games behind the fourth place Red Wings, and three games behind the third place Islanders.  The , Habs, Wings  and Islanders all have 6 more points that the Capitals but really all nine teams from the third place Islanders through the 11th place Senators are within a 10 point spread with 60+% of the regular season still to play.  Even the Second place Lighting and First Place Penguins are theoretically within striking distance for the Caps, Panthers, Bruins and Rangers (10th place). However the reality is Pittsburgh has played awesomely though all sorts of adversity this season and (goal differential +28, overall 0.742 on the season through 31 games played) and the Lightning have been pretty solid across the board as well (goal differential +23, 0.652 on the season through 33 games played).  However if the Capitals can finish out December (13 games total) with at least 19 of the 26 available points, 0.731, which is possible given they have 12 of those 19 points so far and have the opportunity to capture as many as 10 more, so "all" they need to do is "just" keep playing 0.725+ hockey.  Then for the Caps to likely get off the bubble "on the right side" as quickly as possible, they continue playing that style, effort and getting those results through, at least their game on January 16th against the Predators in Smashville, (another 8 games) so they have at least another 11 points and that would give them a total of 54+ points through 44 games and give them a 0.614 record overall on the season.  Then if the Caps can keep that up they would end the season with what I consider a magic number ... 100 points and be solidly on the right side of the bubble and very, very likely NOT need to play the "Wildcard Sweepstakes" to get into the playoffs.

But the quest for all those things starts tomorrow evening in Newark, NJ against those pesky Devils who are always tough for us to play against even though they are 2-6-2 in their last 10 games.  The Devils have a -22 goal differential in 33 games played primarily because they don't score enough goals, they only have 74 goals for (2.24 GFG) so far, as compared to the Capitals' 2.94 GFG so far this season which coincidently is only slightly more than the Devils' GA/G of  2.91.  So, as long as the Caps drive the net as hard tomorrow evening as they did last evening against the Blue Jackets they should come away from Newark with "a two point night."  However, as I said we are talking about the always pesky Devils and that's why they play the games on the ice.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!

As Movember Begins In The NHL The Caps Find Themselves With A 0.500 Record

Well fellow Caps fans our team is now the owner of a 7-7-0 record after a relatively slow start.  Speaking of slow starts - what is it with those things and the Capitals? but more on that later.  During an interview earlier this season, Martin Erat basically said it the right way - a point earned in October and November is as important in April as any points earned at the end of the season. 

With realignment, and the incorporation of wild cards into the NHL playoffs, those early season points might be even more important.  However, the easiest way to make sure that all doesn't matter is to not be a bubble team.  How does one do that in the NHL for 2014 and beyond? Well it's still an 82 game regular season, and in my opinion, the teams that make the playoffs will all need to have 94+ points.  Projecting the Eastern Conference "Wild Cards" right now we see the teams in those two spots as Boston and Montreal each with 16 points, though Boston has a 0.615 record while Montreal has a 0.533 record.  In fact, the current projected playoff team with the "worst" record in the Eastern Conference is the Capitals with their 0.500 record.  Why do I go through all that?  Simply to support this conclusion - Q: what's it going to take to make sure your team makes the playoffs this season; A: play 0.600+ hockey over the course of the entire season and just like prior 82 game seasons that equals 98+ points.  Less than 98 points and more than 87 points and you're a "bubble team."  The good news for the league and hockey fans all over, except those of the one or two bubble teams "on the back side" of the wild card bubble is that as you can see looking at the current standings is the wild card format should improve the caliber of the teams that make the playoffs with those wild card slots compared to the prior 7th and 8th seeds in the earlier format.  At least I think it will. 

So what does that mean to our Capitals and the next two months?  Well interestingly, the Metropolitan Division as a whole has gotten off to a slow start and the Caps 0.500 performance during this first 17% of the season.  So the Capitals are now in the thick of things in the Division as well as the conference.  Additionally over the past ten games including the just concluded 5 game road trip, the Caps have played 0.600 hockey.  In the Division, the Penguins are playing 0.700 hockey over their last ten games and 0.733 over their first 15 games this season.  Elsewhere in the Eastern Conference, Atlantic Division teams: Tampa Bay, Toronto, Detroit, Boston, Montreal, Ottawa, Florida, and Buffalo are in a much different state after the first fifth of the season than here in the Metropolitan Division, at least in my view.  Unless something changes drastically there Florida and Buffalo are or should already be in "rebuild" mode and Ottawa is getting close to that point as well.  Ottawa's performance over their next ten games will dictate whether they claw their way up to where the Canadiens currently are or slip down to the level that the Panthers, Sabres and for that matter the Flyers currently are at will be telling.  Further the Senators last ten game record of 3-6-1 (0.350) is not looking too good.  So to me when I look at the Atlantic Division I see five teams fighting for the three Division Playoff spots and the bottom of those five also being in the battle for both Wild Card spots. 

In the Metropolitan Division, right now, I see Pittsburgh winning the Division unless something drastic changes.  They've started the season playing 0.700+ hockey and are continuing to do so. Even if they drop to 0.650 or even 0.600 for the rest of the season, they will clearly continue to be the team to beat in the Met Division.  Additionally,  as has been noted, those 22 points the Pen's have already won will still be worth 22 points at the end of the season and right now they give the Penguins a 7 point lead over the second place team in the division.  So then you have the next six teams in the division: Islanders, Capitals, Rangers, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes and Devils all separated by just five points.  What I see here is that over the next two months, during which the Caps play twenty eight (28) games (thanks to the schedule compression to accommodate the Olympic Break) is that at least one but not more than two of those teams will play 0.400 hockey and put themselves into a tough spot and make it almost impossible to make the playoffs.  That means there will then be four teams fighting for the remaining two divisional spots as well as the last Wild Card spot. 

To make sure they are one of those four teams that have record that challenges the Penguins for the division championship, the Caps really need to play 0.600+ hockey though November and December.  The good news is so far the Caps are 2-0-0 in November; and they did that by winning a back to back at the end of a 5 game road trip.  Further positives, is that after a relatively slow start both Capitals Goaltenders have looked strong over the past ten games while they've played 0.600 hockey.  Further over their past ten games the Caps have played pretty consistent and strong hockey against a variety of teams that played a variety of styles.  My one worry is their slow start in games of late and the way those slow starts have resulted in paltry numbers of shots on goal and even fewer scoring chances during the first periods of their games.  The Caps just need to up their energy level and aggressiveness in the first period of games, at least I think they do, to even have a chance of playing 0.650 to 0.700 hockey over any extended period.  That said if the Caps play 0.600+ the rest of the way, the Capitals will have 95-96 points at the end of the season.  Ninety six points is NOT 98+ so to get and stay off the bubbly the Caps need to play 0.625+ through November and December - that would be thirty five (35) more points and mean they start 2014 with 49+ points.  If they do that they will be part of the "Class" of the Eastern Conference. 

Can the Capitals do it?  I'm hopeful they can - I think they have the talent across the board to do it and I like the way the coaching staff is driving the team to play.  That said, you have to play the games on the ice.  It also means the Caps need to stay healthy.  Another wild card this season, pun intended, is the Olympic break, which sort of means we play two seasons this year.  The Olympic break is just a lot longer than the All-Star break and changes how the season will "flow".

I'm going to start looking at re-energizing this blog/my blog again now and that will mean looking closer at specific issues and musings as pertain to Hockey and the Capitals in particular.  I don't really know if I'll be able to find the time - I'm pretty busy today but I figured I'd start by looking at the overall "big picture" as regards the season outlook for the Caps.  Now next up for the Capitals on Tuesday will be a test against the Islanders at the end of Tuesday evening's contest the Caps will either be: a) 1 point ahead of the Islanders; b) tied with them at 16 points a piece; or c) three points behind them.  If you're a Caps fan like me you're rooting for "a)".  That will also mean the Caps just might get those 35+ points between 11/1 and 12/31/2013 I mentioned.

LETS GO CAPS!!!

Stories Around The League - Varlamov and Avalanche Start The Season Strongly

Well this morning I noted that Semyon Varlamov is now 2-0 with a 0.968 SV% and a GAA of 1.00, not a bad way for he and the Colorado Avalanche to start the season.  As a team the Avalanche is on top of the NHL Central Division having won their first two games of the season in regulation. The Avs opened their season by beating the Anaheim Ducks at home by a score of 6-1 in a game that ended with their mercurial coach, Patrick Roy going apoplectic at several Ducks players as well as Ducks coach Bruce Boudreau.  The retooled team from Colorado then beat the Nashville Predators last night at Pepsi Center in Denver by a score of 3-1 in a game that featured some highlight reel footage by a couple of former Capitals (Varlamov and Matt Hendricks) on NHL Network this morning.

The Avalanche now start a three game road trip that ends next Saturday with a game against our Washington Capitals here in DC at Verizon Center after playing Toronto on Tuesday and Boston on Thursday.  The Capitals schedule this upcoming week a game tonight against the Stars in Buffalo and then "home cooking" at the Phone Booth on Thursday against their Metropolitan Division rival Carolina Hurricanes before taking on Varly and the Avs next Saturday.  Who knows by then most of the teams in the NHL will have played four games and we should have some real ideas about how the season might really go.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!

Its Official HOCKEY IS BACK In The 202....

Well Capitals Fans NHL Hockey and the Cardiac Capitals are back in the District, as last nights tilt with the Calgary Flames at "da Phone Boot" so aptly illustrated. Last night the Washington Capitals opened the "home portion" of the 2013-2014 NHL season against Calgary after loosing their opening game in Chicago versus the reigning Stanley Cup Champion Blackhawks at United Center on Tuesday 6-4. 
As Caps Fans know, it's been a relatively quiet off season for us fans as the Capitals have only made a few player personnel moves this off season.  I've now been to 1 2/3rds preseason games and the team seems to be shaping up nicely.  To me it looks like the roster on opening night will be:

1st  line:  Johansonn - Backstrom - Ovechkin
2nd line:  Laich - Grabowski - Brouwer
3rd line:  Chimera - Fehr - Ward
4th line:  Wilson - Beagle - Erat

1st  pair:  Erskine - Green
2nd pair:  Alzner - Carlson
3rd pair:  Hillen - Carrick

Goal:  Holtby
           Neuvirth.

Additional players: Volpatti, Olesky

I think this team is looking really solid and from what we saw in the preseason and these first two regular season games, the entire team look like they have absolutely "bought in" to Coach Adam Oates' system.  This team is required to play hard on the puck from the first puck drop until the game is over too and I love that quality in any hockey team.  So while I was/am sad to see Mathieu Perreault traded to Anaheim, and I have my fair share of concerns about the Capitals current third defensive pairing have the required experience level and seasoning, as an eternal optimist, I can have nothing but high hopes for a very solid season - could this be the year?  Well the Capitals have the talent to compete for sure, now we can only watch, wait, and see where they end up when the season really ends next June. 

However, being me I can't help but reflect on both the 6-4 loss to the Hawks and last nights comeback 5-4 shootout win over the Flames, and then look ahead and muse about what it will take for the Caps to be successful this season.  Right after the rebuild was complete we heard a few of the others around the league talk about whether or not they felt the Caps "played the game right" and whether or not the Caps style of play under then newly promoted head coach Bruce Boudreau could ever really take them to the promised land of deep playoff runs and at least one Stanley Cup.  At the time I often really wondered what the heck those guys were talking about.  Well you only have to look at the style of play under Caps current coach Adam Oates to really, really understand what they were talking about.  "Back In The Day" - right after the rebuild was complete the Caps played fun to watch, pretty, "regular season" hockey.  Shots came from the perimeter - often without any traffic in front of the net; a lot of the time, after several years o watching Glenn Hanlon coached "trapping teams" it seemed like the Caps were thinking "defense .... we don't need no stinking defense" as the back check by the wings seldom came down past the top of the circle in the defensive zone ... and the list goes on.  Then we had the opposite style for the short time Dale Hunter was here - defense first and foremost and maybe, maybe score a goal now and then if the other team doesn't beat itself to death in frustration.  I'll be honest - I really didn't enjoy watching the Hunter led Capitals as I felt the team was too talented to play hockey that way.  Now we have the Adam Oates Capitals and make no mistake this is a team playing the game the way their head coach, a hall of famer himself, wants to see the game played.  "A great offense starts with a sound defense" is clearly the way Oates want to see the game played.  Oh and the centers - the centers are essential to this style of play.  They are the cornerstone of the defense. 

Puck possession and protection is a key element of every Capitals game plan now. The degree Oates and his coaching staff have taken this now shown when you look at how lst season, then two time, now three time league MVP has adjusted his game after being a thing or four.  The staff no doubt  helped Ovechkin transition from Left to Right Wing, and go from being an awesome scoring machine to an even "awesomer" more complete, all around hockey player.  After making the transition from LW to RW last season and winning his third Hart Trophy as well as "another" Rocket Richard Trophy as the League's leading goal scorer, its easy to overlook that perhaps the even more important change to Ovechkin's game is how much better he is at protecting the puck.  Now even though he's always "played hard on the puck" throughout his seven season, to date, career, he now seems to do it with more "conservation of energy." Further, in addition to protecting the puck he seems to be better able to protect himself - which is more important then ever for he and the Capitals since the size of the target on his sweater is bigger than ever.  I don't want to take anything away from Ovechkin or his compete level - I have no doubt the majority of these changes are due to he, himself, realizing he could get even better and his work ethic to make it so.  That said there had to be some level of coaching both of the player and illustrating to him how these changes could work better for both he and the entire team; as well as then tweaking the coach's own thoughts and preconceptions about this system to fully "capitalize" on a extraordinary athletes unique talents.  It' one type and level of coaching to take a very talented junior level player and prepare him to make the transition to he NHL, it's an entirely different type and level of coaching to help one of the worlds best at anything get noticeably better than he already was and take his (or her) game to the next level.  Especially when that level is something few have ever seen let alone analyzed and dissected so as to facilitate as a coach.

I've heard it said that it took opponents around the NHL three to four seasons to figure out and adjust to counteract Ovechkin's unique combination of size, speed, skill and perhaps the best "release" in the game that resulted in the way he played LW the first five seasons of his career (when he scored 269 goals in 414 regular season GP).  My feeling is watching his transition through lst years lockout shortened season and the fist two games this season, it ma not take as long for the rest of the NHL to "figure out" his revised approach to playing the game, but it will take them a lot longer and it will be a lot harder, for them o effectively adjust and execute any sort of counteraction to his ability to positively impact the outcome of either an NHL regular season or playoff game, this time around.  I feel strongly Ovechkin's play as the Capitals team leader the first two games of this season portend well for a solid season for both himself as an individual and for the team that has, frankly been built around him these past six years.  Perhaps the most important change, in that respect, is this is no longer, "just" Ovechkin's team it's also Oates', Backstrom's, Green's, Brouwer's, Carlson's, Alzner's, Fehr's, Laich's and the list goes on ...

Now about the Blackhawks game and more significantly last evening's home opener against the Calgary Flames.  My view of the season opener on the road in Chicago is that even though it was a loss and the Capitals gave up five "real gals" and a "empty netter" against the reigning Stanley Cup Champions for the skaters it was a more significant and better executed game than last nights win against the Flames.  The only surprise for me in the Chicago game was how much faster the relatively minor rule changes this past off season have made the game in general.  The pace of the game and the "sick, unbelievable" speed of both the Hawks and the Capitals was tremendously entertaining and "good hockey" to watch and frankly up until the Hawks scored their fifth goal at the of the 13:53 minute mark of the third period this was a fast paced, back and forth game that either team could have won. And lets be clear, there is a reason why the Blackhawks opened the season atop the NHL power rankings that is entirely separate and aside from the fact they put their second Stanley Cup banner up a United Center in three seasons before Tuesday's game and its simple - they are the best team right now in the NHL.  So the fact the Capitals had to "rely" on their power play to keep them in the game really isn't an issue to me.  To be drawing penalties generally you have to be playing well and if you then make the opposing team "pay for their penalties" with extra strength goals, well that's what you are supposed to do as a good hockey team.  The fact that Chicago's Johnny Oduya was able to adjust and blunt Alex Ovechkin's efforts in 5 on 5 situations, with some help from his friends, in the second and third isn't all that surprising given the other weapons Chicago had on the ice to counteract the Capital's first line's strengths  - really not too surprising.  After all, Ovechkin still managed a two point night and also was a factor in another of Mikhail Grabovski's power play goals that he did not "point on." Finally, think about how different the outcome might have been had Braden Holtby "matched" Corey Crawford's less than spectacular 0.875 SV% and nineteen (19) year old Connor Carrick not make one of the two, understandable, "rookie mistakes" that figured in two of Chicago's five even strength goals.  When you do that you realize it wasn't a great night, but it wasn't a horrible night for the good hockey team that is "our Washington Capitals" - our team just came up a little short against a very, very good team. Oh and even though it was in a loosing cause, Capitals nw addition Grabovski had a "hat trick".

Now we switch to last nights game and for sure the first period was indeed a switch.  The Calgary Flames surprised me from the "get go" and how "not bad" they are.  However, the Caps started a little flat as a group, and lets be honest, when Braden Holtby is "on" he's really really good.  Last night though he definitely was NOT "on"  the first goal by the Flames David Jones may or may not be one Holby "wants back" but he should.  It was "stoppable" and it set the tone and tenor for the rest of his shortened appearance last night.  An outing where the 24 year old Lloydminster, SK, native let three goals by on eleven (11) SOG; a 0.727 SV% before being pulled in favor of 25 year old Czech Michal Nuevirth.  That move proved to be the right one, as the Capitals reacted by tightening up their game and "Nuevy" ended the night allowing only one more goal and had a SV% of 0.964 on 28 Shots On Goal by the Flames.  His 27 saves included both "the ones he should have made" and at least two saves "he and his team needed him" to make.

So after "spotting" the Flames a three goal lead by the end of the first period, the Capitals had their work cut out for them in order to get even one point out of last nights game.  Thankfully, the Caps started looking like the team they should and being the team they are during last night's second period.  During the second period the Caps outscored the Flames 3-1, including young "Master" Carrick's first ever regular season NHL goal which opened the Capitals scoring at 7:30 of the second period. It was a nice goal precipitated by solid outlet passes from Alzner and Johansson to Carrick as he exited the penalty box "finished" off by a cool headed Carrick as he pushed the puck into the net through Flames goaltender Ramo's five hole.  The Flames pushed back 1:35 later to again their 3 goal lead with an even strength goal by Lance Bouma before the Caps seemed to decide either "enough is enough" or "not in OUR house" or some combination of the two. The Caps then added a power play goal off an Alex Ovechkin "one timer" at 11:24 to cut the Flames led to two; before "the Great 8" then  brought the game to within one for the Caps with an even strength goal at the 15:25 mark of the period.

Over the next 18:35 of regulation, the Flames impressed me with their ability to "bend but not break" and keep the puck out of the net despite a clear onslaught by the Capitals.  That is until the Caps Nicklas Backstrom was able to leverage, Captain Ovechkin's strong effort on the puck, to "finish" the Capitals second power play goal of the game and tie the game at 4 "all" with 5:50 left to play.  That's the way regulation ended after both Ramo and Nuevirth made saves their team needed them to make.  Overtime was interesting but also ended with the teams deadlocked.  Then we went to the shootout aka "the gimmick".  In the shootout the Capital's new "Russian Connection"  Grabovski, who led off, and Ovechkin both put their "trys" past Ramo with slick moves while Michal Nuevirth was rock solid "stoning" both Flames shooters: Sven Baertschi and Jiri Hudler.  The game gave Nuevy a solid outing and win he deserved and got the Capitals season at home started off in the right manner.

So lets review last evening's "good, bad, and ugly" - I like to end positively so we'll go in "bad, ugly, and good" order.

BAD:  Spotting teams three goal leads isn't the way to ensure you'll get points out of a game, nor is any team SV % under 0.900 and right now through the first two games of the season the Caps have a team SV% of 0.889 SV5. They've also allowed 73 SOG and to me that just seems like at least 14 too many, and really asking for trouble given that so many of the opposing teams shots on goal have been inside the "scoring area" and solid scoring chances.  While Holtby's SV% through his four and half periods played is not where it should be, the eight goals he's allowed are truly not even close to being the majority "his fault". The Caps need to play much, much harder on the puck and generate significantly more defensive zone takeaways to deliver on the potential this team has.  That was definitely clear during last night's game against the Flames.  Another bad is that Martin Erat continues to be a $4M salary cap hit searching for his identity and a role that can make a positive impact every time he is on the ice for the Capitals, in relatively short order something has to give here.  Erat has too much skill and experience not to be making an impact 90+% of the time he is on the ice - regardless of the number of minutes he plays a night.  I know this may sound harsh too - but I think this required change needs to start inside Erat's head and translate to him just working even harder when he's on the ice, not worrying about his ice time or who is out there with him.  I really think he has the skills to do that, he just needs to realize that needs to start with him and then everything else he is concerned with will take care of itself.

UGLY: Jack Hillen left the game with a "lower body injury" after a hit that looked like it likely badly damaged his right ACL. That was ugly and a big stick tap to Tom Wilson for taking Lance Bouma to task for the hit.  BTW Bouma finished his night with the important two thirds of a "Gordie Howe Hat Trick."

GOOD:  This was solid character game as pretty much all comeback victories.  Once the Capitals settled down they returned to their game plan and just patiently chipped away showing the skill and confidence needed to get standings points in the NHL.  The Caps stars led the way and the Caps "role players" at least the vast majority of them played solid games when you look at the full 65:00 played.  Special mention and stick tap to Jay Beagle; "Beag's" was 6 for 8 in the Face Off Circle and 4:36 of his 6:14 TOI was on the penalty kill, those faceoffs were huge as were his efforts while Connor Carrick was in the box at the start of the second period.  While the third line of Chimera - Fehr - Ward were victimized on two eve strength Flames goals, they seemed to get it together and play very strong on the puck after they yielded the goal by Bouma on Nuevirth.  The second line of Laich - Grabovski  - Brouwer had a reasonably solid outing.  The Caps were 61% in the Face Off circle for the game, that seems to be an aspect of the game they've significantly improved on since last season.  Both Tom Wilson with 5:52 (5:40 of even strength) and Connor Carrick with 17:26 including 1:33 on the penalty kill "thanks" to the early departure of Jack Hillen, both looked pretty solid, especially since they are both U20 rookies.

WOW Cardiac Kids/Caps Make A Return At Verizon Center Last Night

Well who would have "thunk it" - I had my thoughts about last night's Caps - Lightning game about half right.  The Caps needed to score more than three goals to win, and if they gave the Lightning's stars time and space an offense led by Saint Louis, Lecavalier, and Stamkos was going to score. 

As we all likely know the Caps came out executing their game plan and playing well, it was the smoothest first period of the season to my way of thinking and at the end of the period, the Caps were up 3-0 and had not gotten frustrated by what was a couple of pretty darn good penalty kills by Tampa Bay.  The second period was a tit for tat affair where at the end of the period the Caps led 5-2 despite being as out shot by the Bolts in the second period by a margin almost as large as the Caps had out shot them in the first.  And the third period you ask?  Well if the third period wasn't the Lightning's best period of hockey this season it had to be close.  From the 18:47 mark of the second period through the end of regulation, the Lightning scored four unanswered, even strength goals to tie the game at 5-5 with 2:35 left to play.  At that point the Capitals seemed to really, no kidding, wake up.  Sure during the first two even strength goals by the Bolts they tried to shake the cobwebs from their game, aggressively exhorted to do so by their Captain, Alex Ovechkin.  However, those efforts just didn't seem to thwart the high energy, wildly aggressive play by Tampa Bay until after the game was tied 5-5.  During the final 2:35 of play, Washington again seemed to find their groove but they were unable to find the back of net before the Lightning earned at least one point before leaving Verizon Center.  As "Sudden Victory Overtime" began, the Capitals "took it up a notch" and once again we witnessed a well played game by two teams with lots of talent.  Then at the 1:50 mark of the extra stanza a bounced puck enabled Marcus Johannson to get away and behind the Tampa Bay porous defense of countryman Victor Hedman such that Bolt's Captain Vinny Lecavalier had to break MoJo's stick with a well executed two handed slash to keep the game going by preventing the young, compact, speedy Swede from scoring.  Lecavalier was called for slashing putting the Capitals on the 4 on 3 powerplay for 2:00.  Personally I love watching 4 on 3 PPs simply because there is so much open ice that guys at the NHL level can and do just use so well.  Last night was no exception.  Watching the Capitals powerplay since about mid/late February has been a joy.  Watching it execute last night on the 4 on 3 man advantage in OT was as the British would say "brilliant."  Mike Ribero setting the puck out to Mike Green while the Bolts also had to worry about "yet another" one-timer from Ovechkin as well resulted in the increasingly common exclamation from "Joe B" on Comcast "GAME OVER!" 

It was, despite a very rocky ~25:00+ minutes from the last few of the second period through the end of regulation, a good night.  A good two point night was in the books for the Capitals when the teams left the ice.  Interestingly, last night was not a game with poor goaltending by either Bradon Holtby or either of the Bolts goalies, IMO, despite 11 goals being surrendered.  The seventy-eight shots on goal by both teams were filled with excellent scoring chances.  In Holtby's case he face 40 shots and ended the night with an unremarkable 0.875 SV %, but I ask you what could he have done on either of Marty Saint Louis' goals?  Those two goals by Saint Louis are NOT two that anyone would "want back."  Ovechkin's goal was "sick" - there's only a couple guys in the world ever that can make that move to the backhand while skating that fast wit the puck - I mean there's only a couple guys who can skate with the puck that fast - think about it... The issue for me relative to the eleven goals scored last night was not the goaltending but the fact that the Caps let the game get away from their game plan.  That's why I was pleas that none of the Caps players were pleased with the way their team played in the game during post game interviews despite getting both available points.  They know they can and must do better the rest of the way until their season ends.

Not mentioned by many is that last night's meeting was the last regular season meeting between the two teams as "Division Rivals" as next season Washington, Carolina,  as in "Conference 2" while Tampa Bay and Florida are in "Conference 1" in the East and Winnipeg moves to "Conference 3" out West.  So as we Caps fans look at the Capitals six remaining games it's interesting to note that all six are against teams that are either definitely in the playoffs (Montreal) or fighting for a playoff spot and seeding; however, none of those six teams will be in the same division as the Capitals will  be in next season. I just think that's an unusual situation and one that only happen in a crazy lockout shortened season right before league realignment. 

Well looking ahead to the Capitals' last six games of the season you can see the road to the playoffs won't be easy. On Tuesday Evening the Capitals face off at Verizon against the Maple Leafs.  The Leafs are currently in 5th in the East with 51 points and just dissected the Canadiens last night with a 5-1 pasting in Toronto - this will be a key game for the Capitals and one I am very much looking forward to.  Then they travel north for a two game road trip to Ottawa and Montreal on Thursday and Saturday.  So for the Caps this week is "Canada Week."  Ottawa is in 6th in the Eastern Conference with 48 points, a stingy team GA of 84 goals with 41 games played and goalie Craig Anderson back in the lineup and looking like a "stone wall."  Thursday won't be an easy game for the Capitals but it too will be an important one as it might be a precursor to an opening round playoff match up.  Saturday sees the Capitals facing off against Montreal at Le Centre Bell.  Montreal has been one of three "Beasts of the East" this season along with Boston and Pittsburgh.  The Canadiens currently have 57 points in 41 games and are still battling with Boston (56 points) to see who will be the Northeast Division Champions.  After last night's loss to Toronto and three games (Flyers, Penguins, and Lightning) this coming week before they meet the Capitals, it's hard to predict how Montreal will be coming into next Saturday Night's game.  The week after next the Capitals have three final games at home to wrap the regular season up.  The biggest is likely to be against Winnipeg on Tuesday evening 4/23 before facing off against the Senators on Thursday and finishing the season off against the Boston Bruins on Saturday evening in what will no doubt be a good game though hopefully it will be one with little to no suspense for either team.  An interesting note about the Capitals last two weeks of the regular season - especially their last four home games - the ice at Verizon Center should be good ice - better than usual that is - because there are no other events at Verizon besides Ice Hockey from 4/15 through 4/28.  That's just plain unusual as Verizon Center, like Madison Square Garden is on of the busiest arenas in the league.

Well there's not much else to say except ...

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Another Week of the NHL Season Down and I Still Hate the Loser Point...

So hockey fans once again thanks to the loser gift point from Gary Bettman’s NHL twenty four (24) of the thirty teams (30) in the NHL are playing over 0.500 hockey this week while last week that number was a mere twenty one (21) teams.  In a sport that supposedly invented the overtime and shootout so that there is always a winner and always a looser, isn’t it ironic is that the only real losers are the teams that win and/or lose their games in regulation and split two vice three points?  Think about it while you look at this week’s power rankings for teams that are over 0.500 in their last ten games.  Here they are:

Rank      Team                     Last 10 Games   Streak                   Conference

 1)            Pittsburgh:           0.800     8-2-0        won 7                    East
 2)           Chicago:               0.800     8-2-0         won 1                   West
 3)           Anaheim:             0.800     7-1-2        won 5                    West
 4)           Montreal:            0.800     7-1-2        won 4                    East
 5)           Winnipeg:            0.750     7-2-1        won 2                    East
 6)           Boston:                0.750     7-2-1        won 1                    East
 7)           Carolina:              0.700     7-3-0        lost 1                     East
 8)           Columbus:           0.700     5-1-4        OT2                        West
 9)           Saint Louis:          0.600    6-4-0         won 2                   West
10)          Minnesota:         0.600     6-4-0        won 1                    West
11)          Washington:       0.600     6-4-0        won 1                    East
12)          Los Angeles:        0.600     6-4-0        lost 2                     West
13)          NY Islanders:       0.600     5-3-2        won 1                    East
14)          Detroit:                0.600     5-3-2        lost 1                     West
15)          Ottawa:               0.600     4-2-4        OT2                        East
16)          Calgary:               0.550     5-4-1        won 1                    West
17)          San Jose:             0.550     4-3-3        won 1                    West
18)          Philadelphia:      0.500     5-5-0        won 1                    East
19)          Phoenix:              0.500     5-5-0        lost 1                     West
20)          NY Rangers:        0.500     5-5-0        lost 2                     East
21)          Vancouver:         0.500     4-4-2        won 2                    West
22)          Edmonton:         0.500     4-4-2        won 2                    West
23)          Buffalo:               0.500     4-4-2        won 1                   East
24)          Dallas:                  0.500    4-4-2        OT1                        West.

So to me the good news in this week’s power rankings are: 1) at least no team playing over 0.500 hockey in their last ten games this week had less than four (4) outright (in regulation time) wins versus last week when X teams did so, ad 2) for the second week in a row the Washington Capitals have played 0.600 hockey which is likely what it may well take for them to make the playoffs.  The travesty of course is that of the 240 games that these twenty four teams contested in the last ten game span, 26 (10.8%) of the time they received a gift “loser” point; last week that number was 11.3% of the 230 games the teams that were over 0.500 played.  That means that in the standings this season it is likely to take 5 to 10 more points to make the playoffs than it did during the last 48 game season.  That’s why I say in either conference the way things now look, to even be on the bubble coming down the stretch (the last 10 days/5 games) your team will need to have played 0.550 over the prior 40+ games. 

You’ll also note that thanks to loser points five (5) teams, San Jose, Ottawa, Columbus, Detroit and the NY Islanders are all listed higher than they would likely be if every game were worth three points (three points for a regulation win; 2 points for an OT or SO win; and 1 point for an OT or SO loss.)  Enough with my continued jihad/rant about how it makes NO sense to me to give teams an EXTRA point for games that go beyond regulation time to be decided.

Another interesting thing of note as of this morning is that there are five teams – the three Beasts of the East (Montreal, Boston, and Pittsburgh) and the two Best of the West (Chicago and Anaheim) that are simply at least a head, if not heads and shoulders, above the rest of the league at this point.  While as of this AM Boston “only” has 39 points, they’ve only played 25 games so far this season and overall they have played 0.870 hockey.  Additionally the Bruins have captured 20 of those points on the road and their goal differential is +22 (.88 goals per game and best in the East) and their average goals against of 2.16/game is second best in the league while their average goals for of 3.04 goals/game is more than respectable.  Boston though trailing Montreal and Pittsburgh for the Conference Championship is certainly poised right now for an excellent season and a deep run in the playoffs barring a meltdown or some totally unforeseeable issue.  As noted the same seems to be in the cards for the Penguins and the Canadiens both of whom also have played 0.714 and 0.740 hockey so far this season.  The only real intrigue in the Eastern Conference in my mind is who of these three will be the 1, 2, and 4 seeds for the first round.  That’s a big difference from two weeks ago thanks to Pittsburgh being on a 7 game winning streak right now.  However, both Montreal and Boston have been playing 0.700 or better hockey pretty steadily since early in the season.  Once you look elsewhere in the Eastern Conference from these three teams though you find 8 other teams who are within 5 points of each other, two of whom (Carolina and Winnipeg) who are playing 0.700+ hockey in their last ten games.  If the current trends continue another two weeks things could again look much different as to who the stronger and weaker teams are in the conference and in addition to the eight clustered teams, depending on how things continue to go for New Jersey, Ottawa, Toronto, the Rangers, the Islanders and the Flyers, the Capitals may or may not find themselves also among the cluster of teams on the rather large Eastern Conference “bubble”.

Out West, what else is there to say other than Chicago’s season record thus far of 0.870 is pretty other worldly?  In fact the only thing that has kept them from running away with the entire conference is that Anaheim’s 0.827 start to the season is “pretty” good too, eh?  Looking beyond these two teams we see twelve teams that are within 6 points (3 games) of each other with an average of approximately 21 games to play.  It’s unlikely that any other team in the Conference will win either the Central or the Pacific Division but everything else is clearly “up for grabs” with regard to the Western Conference seeding; and who can forget that last season Lord Stanley’s Cup was won by the eighth seeded team in the Western Conference.   Right now though I am very “high” on Anaheim’s prospects to go deep into the playoffs and if they make the finals, I would not bet against them to take the Cup.  They just looked very intensely good during their current five game winning streak.  Besides who can’t get behind Selanne winning another Cup at age 42?  Besides of course hockey fans of pretty much every other team in the Western Conference right now.

Now let’s talk Washington Capitals hockey over the last week.  In the last week’s games the Capitals dropped from sixth (6^th) to eleventh (11^th) in my power rankings this week.  The reasons for the drop are X-fold.  1) The Capitals dropped off from playing 0.700 hockey to 0.600 hockey.  2) They Capitals traded a three (3) game winning streak and 3-1-0 record for a 1-3-0 record this week.  3)  Last week there were seven (7) teams including the Capitals playing 0.700 or better hockey, this week there are eight (8) teams playing 0.700 or better hockey and the Capitals are not one of them.  4) In the three games in the first week of March the Caps scored 14 goals and allowed only 4 to be scored against them; in the four games they played in the second week of the month they scored only 6 goals and allowed 15 to be scored against them.  As such the Capitals find themselves in twelfth place in the Eastern Conference, seven (7) points out of a playoff spot and eight (8) points behind SE Division leader Carolina with 22 games left to play in their season. 

Can the Capitals make up three to four games with just 22 left to play if they keep playing 0.600 hockey?  That’s really the question and the answer is, it’s possible but it won’t be easy, especially if the two of teams they need most to catch – Winnipeg and Carolina – continue to play 0.700 plus hockey. 

The seven teams that could most impact whether the Capitals make the playoffs right now are likely Winnipeg, Ottawa, New Jersey, Toronto, Philadelphia, the Rangers and the Islanders.  For the remainder of the season the Capitals have 22 games to play.  Of those 22 games they play those seven teams ten times – including three more games against Winnipeg.  The Capitals also have five games remaining against the three “Beasts of the East” including two against the Bruins and two more games against the Canadiens.  The “good” news for the Capitals looking at the remaining 22 games this regular season is they play Southeastern Division rivals eight (8) out of those 22 games, and so far this season the Capitals are doing well against their division rivals (7-3-0).  If they continue to play 0.700 hockey against the rest of the division, especially Carolina and Winnipeg, they should climb in the division.  Making up the four (4) games they trail the Hurricanes though will require some help by Carolina’s other remaining opponents though as otherwise the runway is simply not long enough to get past the Hurricanes in my opinion.  The three games remaining against Winnipeg are simply huge for the Capitals and the fact two of them are rare back to backs in “The Peg” won’t make it easy for the Caps either.  Over the next week, including the current in process game against the Bruins will likely determine whether the Caps will remain in a position to possibly make the playoffs.  Unfortunately as I type this the Caps trail the Bruins 2-1 at early in the second period at TD Garden but hey last time these two teams met the Caps trailed at the end of the first period and the Capitals haven’t played poorly so I’ll remain the eternal optimist.

Why do I rail against the “free”/”gift” loser point?  It’s simple it’s hurt the Capitals and teams like them much more often than it’s helped them.  For example so far this season the Capitals have only benefited from the policy/rule one time out of twenty six games (3.8%) while other teams like Montreal, Ottawa, New Jersey and Boston have all benefited from the rule considerably more.  Ottawa 22.2%; New Jersey 21.4%; Montreal 14.8% and Boston 12%.  The fact that because it truly is a gift point to the loser instead of a point that a team takes from the other team if they extend the game past regulation it’s not really at all equitable in how it might affect the standings.

Okay that’s about all I’ve got for now so back to game …

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Digging Out of The Deep Hole and What Are Reasonable Expectations for the 2013 Capitals Season?

Well Caps Fans as of this date – March 8^th, 2013 the Capitals are two games shy of the mid-point of the shortened 48 game season that is the 2012-13 (really just 2013) NHL Regular season.  Thanks to a 10-5-0 record since the first (1^st) of February, the Capitals have almost recovered to an overall respectable record after a January that ended 1-5-1.  As of this morning, the Capitals have an overall record for the 22 games they’ve played so far of 10-11-1 (21 points/ 0.477 overall), more important run they’ve gone 7-3-0 in their last 10 games or 8-3-0 in their last 11 games depending on who and what you want to compare and talk about.  The Capitals have not lost consecutive games since February 23^rd when they lost to the Devils by one goal (3-2), after losing to the Rangers 2-1 two nights prior.  They’ve not lost a game by a margin of more than one goal since losing to Pittsburgh 5-1 on February 7^th.

Why do I point all these good things out?  Well because if the Capitals manage to get three or four of the four possible points available to them in their next two games, they will have recovered from an absolutely horrible start to this lockout shortened season.  That’s quite a feat considering they will have done so while instituting new systems and making large changes to their make-up while starting the season with a new first year NHL head coach – yes I know Adam Oates is a Hockey Hall of Famer, but he’s also a first year head coach in the NHL.  That’s a pretty big deal.  Now also consider this if the Capitals win at least three out of the four available points this weekend they will be at least 0.500 on the season at the halfway mark and they will have amassed at least a 6-3-1 record in their last ten games as well as a record of either 4-0-1 or 5-0 in their prior five games and a record of at least 10-6-1 since February 1^st.  Better yet they will NOT be in a deep hole that will need to be dug out during the second half of the season to make the playoffs.

In fact the Capitals are/ will be poised to make a great run and that’s where I think they are likely to be.  Why do I say that?  Well right now, thanks to the thing I hate most in the NHL today – the loser point – 23 out of 30 teams have/are playing 0.500 or better hockey in their last 10 games and that means during this second half of the lockout shortened season something has got to give.  Especially when you realize that after this weekend basically every team in the NHL will have to play 24 games in 7 ½ weeks or more precisely 55 days.  That’s an average pace of 1 game every 2.25 games – that’s pretty intense and overall team health, as well as other factors like who you have left to play, etc. are all key.  Also where your team is mentally as well as physically as this second half of the season sets going will come into play.  Looking at the teams in the NHL who have 0.500 or better records in their last 10 games as of this morning I rank the Capitals at 6^th in my own personal version of “power rankings:

Rank      Team                     Last 10 Games   Streak
 1)           Chicago:              1.000  10-0-0       won 11
 2)           Anaheim:            0.800   7-1-2         won 1
 3)           Boston:                0.750   7-2-1        won 1
 4)           Montreal:            0.750   6-1-3        won 1
 5)           Pittsburgh:          0.700   7-3-0        won 3
 6)           Washington:      0.700   7-3-0        won 3
 7)           Los Angeles:       0.700   7-3-0        lost 1
 8)           NY Rangers:        0.600   5-3-2         won 4
 9)           Detroit:                0.600   5-3-2        won 2
10)          Winnipeg:           0.600   6-4-0        won 1
11)          Toronto:              0.600   6-4-0        lost 1
12)          Ottawa:                0.600   5-3-2        lost 1
13)          Dallas:                   0.550   5-4-1        won 2
14)          Calgary:                0.550   5-4-1        won 2
15)          St. Louis               0.550   5-4-1        won 1
16)          Phoenix:              0.550   5-4-1        lost 2
17)          Minnesota:         0.550   5-4-1        lost 1
18)          Philadelphia:      0.500   5-5-0        lost 2
19)          Carolina:              0.500   5-5-0        lost 1
20)          Columbus:          0.500   4-4-2        won 3
21)          NY Islanders:      0.500   4-4-2        OT 1
22)          San Jose:             0.500   4-4-2        lost 1
23)          Vancouver:         0.500   3-3-4         OT 2.

So right now I’m pretty “high” on the Capitals and I have them in the 6^th spot largely on the solid record and pace they’ve had over the past 10 games as well as the fact that since 2/1/2013 they’ve played 0.667 hockey.

So now you have to ask yourself - what if this is as good as it gets?  What is the “this” I’m talking about – well it’s winning 2 out of 3 on average the rest of the way to the end of the regular season is “as good as it gets”?  What would that mean?  Well what?  WHAT would that mean?  Would the Capitals make the playoffs?

My answer is probably; also it’s entirely possible if not probable if the Capitals play 0.667 or better hockey “the rest of the way” they will win the Southeastern Division.  Basically if the Caps play 0.667 hockey the last 24 games of the season they will pick up 4 games/8 points on any team that plays 0.500 hockey.  Right now Carolina leads the Southeast with 27 points in 23 games played (0.587 overall) but they are 5-5-0 in their last ten games and their starting goaltender – Cam Ward – is likely out the rest of or at least the majority of the rest of the season.  So for me it’s hard to see Carolina playing much better if at all better than 0.500 hockey the rest of the season.  So again if the Caps play 0.667 for the final 24 games while the Hurricanes play 0.500 the Capitals will finish the season at least 2 points in front of Carolina. 

That leaves us to compare the likely finishes of the other three Southeast Division rivals: Winnipeg, Tampa Bay and Florida.  Florida as we saw last night is currently pretty decimated by injuries and they are 0.350 over their last ten games; additionally the Caps currently have 2 games in hand on the Panthers.  It’s hard to see how the Panthers can finish this season making the playoffs or playing over 0.425 across the 48 games season right now.  In fact right now it seems to me the Panthers likely finish the season with between 38 and 44 points total.  Perhaps the best thing about the remainder of their season for Panther fans is they only have to face the Capitals once more and when they do in Sunrise on April 6^th it’s unlikely the series will continue its current trend and the Capitals probably won’t score 8 goals.  Tampa Bay is also well under 0.500 with a 3-7-0 record in their last ten games and a current “streak” of 1 loss and an overall season record of 10-13-1 and 21 points.  Like Florida, their season is already ½ over.  It’s hard for me to understand how a team with so much talent, especially fire power, that in this offseason made significant investments in their blue-line, and overall for the season a +7 goal differential, can have such a poor record their last ten games.  Then you look at the underlying data and faces and you see they started the season on fire (January 5-1-0), but since 2/1/2013 they’ve gone 5-12-1.  Their defense has been as porous as their offense has been prolific.  Since February 1^st while they’ve played 0.306 hockey they’ve scored 53 and allowed 60 goals.  Basically Tampa Bay needs their blueliners to play much better and they need a reliable goaltender.  I say that from looking at the numbers and from watching them when they’ve played the Capitals. Tampa Bay has an awesome power play and their forwards still can forecheck and backcheck with the best teams in the league.  That said this year doesn’t seem to be the year.  Even if Steve Yzerman picks up a goaltender, their blueline corps is still not playing well as a unit and that isn’t likely to be fixed overnight.  For that reason, it’s hard to see Tampa Bay playing better than 0.500 hockey the rest of the season or finishing with more than 45 points. 

That leaves one worry for the Capitals – if they continue to play 0.667 or better – the Winnipeg Jets.  Let me say this, I think the Capitals should worry about Winnipeg.  The Jets are 6-4-0 in their last ten games; they have a2 point/1 game lead over the Capitals in the standings – the one game the Caps have in hand on the Jets.  Other than Toby Enstrom, the Jets are looking pretty healthy going into the second half and they are playing well.  They play Florida tonight in Sunrise and the Devils on Sunday in Newark.  It’s very likely that after Sunday they will be at have at least 25 points in 25 games – 0.500 overall.  Basically what I’m saying here is the Caps and the Jets are likely to wake up Monday morning in a footrace with each other that will continue the remainder of the season.  If that’s the case and everything else holds true with regard to my thoughts as how big an negative impact Cam Ward’s absence has on the Hurricanes, then the answer to the question of who wins the Southeast Division is who of the Jets and the Capitals has a record of over 0.650 and by how much the second half of the season.  Given the pace of the second half of the season a couple of interesting things to note here: 1) during the second half of the season the Capitals face the Jets three times – twice in Winnipeg (back to back on 3/21 & 22 – another oddity thanks to the quirks of post-lockout scheduling) and a final time on Tuesday April 23^rd at Verizon center in what will be the Jet’s 47^th and the Capitals 46^th game of the season.  The Jets finish their season against the Canadiens at home on Thursday April 25^th. 2) Because of the quirks of the shortened season the Jets finish their regular season a little earlier than most teams and they also still have 6 game home-stand between April 6^th and April 20^th.  That’s a long stretch of home cooking and it’s unlikely the Jets will continue their subpar (0.400) play at home at MTS Center the remainder of the season. 3) The Capitals longest home or away stretch the remainder of the season is a four (4) game road trip from March 19^th through March 24^th and includes those back to back games at “the Peg.”  The Capitals can do themselves a LOT of good if they have a good road trip, win the full 8 point differential available with Winnipeg in those games and improve their subpar (currently 0.350) road record significantly for the remainder of the season, especially on that four game road trip.   So look this the blog of a Capitals fan and the facts are right now the Caps are playing slightly better than the Jets, also I still think the Caps are the stronger team of the two; my forecast/prognostication is the Caps take the Southeast Division with between 54 and 60 points and the Jets make the playoffs in 7^th or 8^th place in the East with between 51 and 54 points.
So while the second half of the Capitals season technically starts on Monday, I feel like it really starts now and I’m bullish on the prospects.  One things for sure though we cannot be confident about making the playoffs this season for a long time from now.  Even if the Capitals continue to basically play 0.650 – 0.700+ hockey the rest of the way, it will be over a month plus – likely 6 weeks (if ever this season) until they and we fans have any “breathing room at all between making and not making the post season.  That’s because in the Eastern Conference at the halfway mark of this shortened season, 6^th place Ottawa is 3-1/2 games/7 points ahead of the Capitals and the only team in the top 8 with a less than 0.500 record in their last ten games is New Jersey with a 2-6-2 record is New Jersey who can’t wait till Marty Brodeur’s back is better.  If that doesn’t happen soon New Jersey might fall off the “back of the bubble” but I’m not counting on it.
Okay next up the Islanders tomorrow at Nassau Coliseum followed by the Rangers on Sunday here at Verizon Center.  More on those games later – I personally can’t wait to see the Caps tussle with the Rangers on Sunday and I’m looking forward to a solid road win on Long Island tomorrow as well.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Mid-Week Hockey Musings Including "In Defense of Alexander Semin"....

Wow - well hope and good thoughts continue to emanate from Verizon Center and KCI after a 3-0 shutout of Southeast Division leading Carolina last night and that's a good thing in my Capitals Fan Centric world or maybe more properly in my world which this time of year is usually Capitals Fan Centric. My musings today on hockey are realism and fact versus perception though so I must remember that the Capitals still need to basically play 0.600 hockey the rest of the way this season to be reasonably sure they make the playoffs come April 27th and even with this second in a row regulation win over a Division leading team they are still 5-5-0 (0.500) in their last 10 games. That of course means tonight's game in Philadelphia against our traditional rival Flyers is as important as ever and could be looked back on come April 28th as a turning point one way or another either way.

I try not to be overly dramatic on these things, I'm just a simple hockey fan, blogging my own personal thoughts and opinions here after all. I'm a middle aged guy who loves his regular day job and has other avocations and interests in addition to following the Capitals, NHL and pro sports in general. I don't want to grow up to be a journalist or statistician or anything like that but I do really, really enjoy seeing the best in the world perform and compete against each other game in game out; I've blogged before about this and the reason I'm so passionate about following the NHL is from what I can tell pro hockey players are the athletes who keep it most real, and are most approachable and the nicest of them all. In addition to playing a sport that for me is absolutely the most fun to watch either in HD on TV or in person. Why this attestation you ask? Well because of the stuff I'm going to write about that will follow today. Approachability, etc. aside though, I firmly believe that professional athletes at the highest levels are special talents and not like most of us. They can't be and achieve the level of capability in their games without a higher compete level, etc. than we generally approach, anything we do in life, regardless of their physical gifts or talent levels. Both of which also have to be there in that top 1/10th of 1% level to eve make it as "a grinder" etc. To me the prior statement isn't opinion, it's fact. One only has to look at a guy who "almost made it" and see his or her talent levels, etc. and compare them to we typical beer leaguers, etc. Do we know a lot about a particular sport, etc. compared to someone who hasn't or didn't play "the game" sure, probably. Do we know and understand "the game" to the level it takes someone to inherently understand and live the game eve to make it in the AHL - I don't think so. And what's that mean to make it in the NHL - well it simply means you have to have all that and more and to do that it means whether you're a fourth line grinder or a first line talent you are special - talent and physical ability level; work ethic level; and knowledge and understanding "vision, etc." - really in every way. Put it simply there are over 7,000,000,000 (billion) people on this planet today; ~1,500 own NHL contracts and roster spots today - that's 0.00002%. No matter how you look at that - that's special. It's also something I think we fans overlook and forget when we hear comments by them about their peers. They aren't talking about whether or not compared with mere mortals or even top tier players in the lesser leagues such as the AHL, KHL, etc. are like this or that. They are talking about their perceptions, etc. of a peer who is playing and being paid to compete against them at the top 0.00002% level of a sport is like. My point is that in the past I've commented that one of the things I don't like about Sidney Crosby is how plain vanilla and non-controversial 99.9999% of what comes out of his mouth is - after this past week's furor over Troy Brouwer's comments about Alexander Semin and all the reaction to it - I will probably never feel or think such thoughts again - even about Sidney Crosby.

Before I go on let me say this - Troy Brouwer and every other current NHL player, former teammate or otherwise is truly entitled to and likely has an opinion about the other 1499 players around with NHL contracts. No argument there. Also I love that Brouwer is having a great season and playing well - I want him to continue to do so and I think he will do so. As you will see from the notes that follow, I am and always have been a fan of Alexander Semin and I will continue to be so. I also think it was time for him to move on for both himself and the Capitals last summer. I think his play, etc. this season will prove that I am right and he'll do better than ever in Carolina. As a Caps fan, I wish he'd do that on a team outside the SE Division but hey, the Caps could have had him if we wanted him and this (letting him go) was probably the right move.

All that said when twitter and other media blew up last week after Brouwer's comments once again, IMO, we saw emotions run high ad statements based on emotion and perception vice fact, statistics and data running amok, in my opinion. So here goes - here's my factual statements and data "in defense of Alexander Semin" as opposed or in some case, in direct response to many of the most common thoughts tweeted that I think are just not based in reality and let me say this, if you doubt whether perception is or can become reality when it's all said and done  - ask yourself how Zach Parise exited this summer with a long term $12M/year deal while Semin who has better numbers - all around - is playing on a one year $7M/deal (again) this season? I'm not saying that Parise isn't worth his $12M - you know how I know he is? Because that's what he's getting paid - that's a fact - and it' simple, someone whose job is to decide whether or not Zach Parise is worth $12M decided he was and is writing those checks today. In the world we live in something is worth what someone will actually pay for it - not what the current owner might think its worth before he/she tries to "sell it" etc. That's how our world works, so in answer to the question that many Caps fans last week made comments on - Alexander Semin is for sure worth $7M/season. The factual data proves he is - for the last three seasons he's been making that and he's been doing so on one year deals; so at any point in time if he wasn't worth $7M, he wouldn't have been paid it the following season. Now let's look at the market comparables and Semin's numbers to understand why and how Semin has been able to command $7M/season "on the open market" each of the last three seasons.

In Defense of Alexander Semin:

Here's the data I collected that I thought was/is interesting looking at a pretty broad array of top NHL forward contracts as comparables to Alexander Semin.

Semin (L/RW)     $7M     G         A         P                G/G     P/G

2011-12                           21         33        54             0.273   0.701
2010-11                           28         26        54             0.431   0.831
2009-10                           40         44        84             0.548   1.151
2008-09                           34         45        79             0.548   1.274
2007-08                           24         16        42             0.413   0.667
2006-07                          38         35        73              0.494   0.948
2003-04                          10           12        22            0.192   0.423
Career              486GP                                             0.414   0.868

 Other Top NHL Forwards Making Similar Salaries (career numbers/game) to Semin:

  1) S. Crosby (C)            $7.5M            453GP          0.512   1.406
  2) E. Malkin (C)            $9M               445GP          0.476   1.231
  3) A. Ovechkin (L/RW) $9M               570GP           0.609   1.216
  4) J. Thorton (C)            $7.0M          1092GP           0.300   1.001
  5) I. Kovalchuk (R/LW)$11M             798GP           0.518   1.005
  6) S. Stamkos (C/W)      $8.0M            343GP          0.560   1.044
  7) Z. Parise (LW)           $12M             519GP           0.387   0.813
  8) E. Staal (C/LW)         $8.4M**        659GP           0.393   0.900
  9) V. Lecavalier (C)       $10M            1016GP          0.373   0.845
10) M. Richards (C)         $8.4M             543GP          0.285   0.744
11) R. Nash (R/LW)         $7.6M             688GP           0.424   0.813
12) M. Gaborik (L/RW)   $7.5M             739GP          0.448   0.890
13) M. Cammallieri (W/C) $7.0M          576GP          0.351   0.759
14) J. Spezza (C)              $8.0M             611GP           0.373   1.016
15) J. Iginla (RW)            $7.0M**       1205GP           0.431   0.901
16) T. Vanak (L/RW)      $6.4M            566GP            0.428   0.837
17) M. StLouis (R/LW)   $5.5M**         950GP            0.344   0.922
18) M. Hossa (RW)         $7.9M             997GP           0.427   0.923
19) P. Kane (RW/C)        $6.0M             418GP           0.325   0.615
20) H. Zetterberg (C/LW)$7.75M**     687GP            0.376   0.945

 Additional Semin statistics: 0.959 PIM/Game; Career +/- = +74 (+0.154/game)

 And just for grins (again Career Numbers and current salaries):
T. Brouwer (RW)                    $2.35M        337GP    0.223   0.439 (-14) Also:  (0.724PIM/Game)
M. Bradley (RW)                    UFA            675GP     0.087   0.221
D. Steckel (C)                         $1.10M        394GP     0.081   0.183.

 Additional information about the data: Source - TSN.COM and CapGeek.com. All numbers except career +/- is limited to NHL regular season data on TSN.COM through 2/26/2013.  In order to look at the whole what about "Semin is a washout/no show in the playoffs" assertion I did also look at EVERY one of Semin and the 20 comparables above and compare their G/G and Pts/Gm in playoffs games versus their reular season career numbers.  That data shows two things 1) the playoffs are indeed different and lower scoring/tighter played and 2) only four players on the list have significantly better numbers in either G/G or Pts/Gm in their career in the playoffs vs. regular season numbers.  The four "big game/playoff" guys are highlighted by a double asterik ** next to their annual salary numbers:  Eric Staal; Jerome Iginla; Marty StLouis; and Henrik Zetterberg.  Everyone else is closeto but slightly under their career norms for their playoff appearances but some like Rick Nash clearly do not have a stastically significant data set to mke any sort of judgemetn on and that's the biggest reason I didn't include it in the numbers for comparable comparisons.

So where should we begin looking at the data/statistics and numbers – which is what agents and GM’s do when they negotiate and make the decisions of what to pay for a player to decide “Is Alexander Semin worth $7M?”. Sure, intangible stuff like the perception material is used I’m sure to try and bolster a case one way or another and for sure we know from Jim Rutherford’s comments about the deal he negotiated that brought Semin to Raleigh it had something to do with why Semin is currently on a one year deal in Carolina vice a 3 year or so deal he was apparently seeking from teams.  Further I’ve kept this mainly to the basic data and numbers since in order to better understand so called “fancy statistics” you really have to look very closely at them and explore them and I think this defense is getting long winded enough as it is.  That said in pure pay for performance terms looking at the pay for productivity information of Semin vs. 20 other elite forwards in the NHL – and to get more than $5M/season you need to be “elite” Semin seems to be on par with his statistical peers.  Certainly his salary is not outside the statistical norms when looking at $/ goals or points per game. For a wing to be looked at as a goal scorer and a reliable offensive producer that justifies $5+M/season I believe this data points to two things/thresholds that need to be met or exceeded – a likelihood of achieving or exceeding 0.400 goals/game and/or a likelihood of achieving or exceeding 0.750 points per game.  Semin easily meets both of those thresholds.  Now why $7M instead of a number closer to $5M?  Well that’s where two things I think come into and came into play – 1) Semin’s preference for a shorter deal vice a lower salary and longer term – he’s consistently shown a willingness to trade term for money now.  (Perhaps that’s the hockey playing son reflecting something he learned growing up the son of a successful CFO (e.g time/value of money and that at the end of a day, especially when as a professional athlete the length of time you can achieve maximum earnings can be fleeting – “a bird in the hand is probably worth two in the bush+…2)  The second factor is Semin’s career numbers show when looking at his best season: 2008-09 and 2009-2010, he can significantly outperform his statistical means in both G/G and Pts/G and when he does he begins to approach numbers that are indeed league leading.  It’s simply the price a team has to pay for the difference of having someone who can reliably score 30G and 60Pts in a season and one who in addition to that productivity has the upside of and clear potential of scoring 40G and 80 points.  It’s really no different than the premium the Rangers had to pay to sign either Gaborik or Nash or the Blackhawks pay Hossa.   Now about “intangibles” and such things where fact needs to be separated from fiction, there’s really only one negative frequently mentioned when talking about Semin that the data/statistics bear out and that’s the number of minor penalties he takes vs. the ones he draws.   As an elite, scoring player Semin’s 0.959 Minor Penalty Minutes/Game is significantly higher than many of the other players on this list and because f that no matter how many penalties he draws the delta will pale in comparison to pretty much every other  players on this list.  Now what about the impression he gets lazy or is a little soft relative to playing through injuries in the middle of the season – well the average number of games played and appeared in per season just doesn’t bear that assertion out.

 Why this defense of Alexander Semin?  Well I continually defend against any of this “enigma stuff” when it’s hurled at European and especially Russian players.  I do so because I simply think about what it must be like to be a 20 something person living and working in a foreign land under a microscope.  Further, Russians like Americans and Canadians grow up in a land where they can literally drive for hours and even days and not have to speak a foreign tongue.  Coming to the US or Canada to live and work is very intimidating and has to wreak havoc on these young men emotionally, especially while they are trying to break into and maintain careers as professional athletes.  I think the whole “enigma” hullabaloo is exactly that and it’s exacerbated by the fans and media to have something to write about.  No more – no less.  Further, in most cases the data bears things out.  Forget Semin, the fact that from time to time the press says similar types of things about Malkin – a two time Hart Trophy winner with all universe statistics is probably a better thing to point to about the horse hockey aspects of it.  I started this by saying that I agree that peers like Brouwer, Bradley, and Steckel are all clearly entitled to their opinions and to voice them if they so desire re: Semin as a teammate.  That said when Brouwer arrived, the Capitals were in transition and his time as a teammate of Semin was brief – 22 games vs the 18 games Semin’s current Carolina teammates have with him.  Here’s what two of Semin’s current teammates are saying about the intangibles per a recent article in the less than Semin loving Washington Times:

“Behind the back, through the legs,” Corvo said. “That’s why he makes the big bucks. He makes the plays that other guys just don’t think of.”

Semin’s ability to make difficult plays look easy has never been questioned. But even the elements of Semin’s game that have come under fire aren’t ones the Hurricanes are concerned about. “I think he’s competed hard every practice and every game for us. He continues to prove people wrong,” Eric Staal said. “I’ve got nothing but good things to say about him.”

I don’t know why some of his former teammates feel the need to comment on Semin, I’ll conjecture they believe if they had his talent they’d make more of it, because they clearly seem to have said, they think they have a better work ethic, and they didn't appreiate the inconsistant work ethic they felt Semin approached the game with while they were teammates. My reaction is it’s life not grade school and frankly it’s professional sports – the whole “work ethic” thing and make sure you show up every night and are accountable thing is, in my view overhyped, overblown and misunderstood by we fans and lay people. I’m not saying it’s not important – it is. I AM saying there is NO WAY, no matter how talented you are that you get to and stay in the top 0.00002% of your profession without doing that exact thing – working hard and holding yourself accountable – pretty much every minute of the season How any individual player does that is going to be very personal and clearly different for someone from a different cultural background. So it’s really a comparison that one member of the top 0.00002% is making to another member of the top 0.00002%. I think if you/we are not part of that club, you'll (we’ll) probably misunderstand the context, motive and even the meaning of the statement. For that reason, I’m now admitting I understand why Sidney Crosby is probably smart to say nothing controversial in pretty much every interview he ever does. It doesn't make for interesting articles or stories but it's probably the smartest thing one player can do when especially when they are one of the leagues clear top ten and asked about another player. If for some reason Troy Brouwer, David Steckel or Matt Bradley ever asked me my advice on the topic, I’d suggest they just politely respond with non-controversial statements like I wish him well but when we play his team I’m certainly hoping we match up well against him and continue to keep him off the scoreboard. I mean if John Carlson can get the quote right, I’m sure everyone else on the team can as well.



I think I’ve rambled on enough on this topic and I doubt I’ll ever write another word on it unless somehow Carolina wins the Stanley Cup this year and Alexander Semin is a big reason they do so. I mean at that point it’ll be worth talking about what a great thing the move was for both Semin and the Hurricanes, until then Semin is really “just” another top NHL forward that plays against the Washington Capitals and whose style of play and talent level I respect and enjoy watching.



The one other reason I wrote this defense is that I truly don’t get why fans at Verizon Center would boo him. He’s said nothing negative about his time here and he clearly, from the data and statistics perspective earned the money he was paid while playing here. I mean it’s not like he’s Jagr who the Caps paid for multiple years to play for the New York Rangers for crying out loud. So for that reason I just think boo'ing Semin and reviling him in any way is silly.



Now about tonight’s game: I’m with Peerless – tight game; Caps Win 3-2…
LETS GO CAPS!!!