2015 Week 2 - Capitals Games 38, 39, and 40 Are In The Books ...

Well fellow Caps Fans here we are basically at the mid-point of the 2014 - 15 NHL regular season and the Barry Trotz era Capitals appear to have jelled into their new system rather nicely and with a new culture as well.  No "Winter Classic Hangover here (nor in Chicago for that matter.)  The Caps are now 3-0-1 so far in the New Year after going 8-2-3 for the month of December, all of which means that at this season's midpoint the Capitals find themselves 21-11-8 with 50 points & 20 ROW on track for 100+ points and 40 ROW.  That's a pretty big change from last season when they finished the regular season with 90 points and a paltry 28 ROW which meant golf lessons.  The biggest difference, the one that validates how much harder a team, the Caps are to play against is the ROW number.  That and the overall goal differential the Caps finished last season with a goal differential of -5, this season through 40 games, the Caps are +16.  Those two things are really huge, IMO. 

Then we have the basic way the Caps play now which in games like the Winter Classic or any of games 38, 39 and 40 you can see, this is a much different team then we've seen in a pretty long time.  The 2014-15 version of the Washington Capitals are constructed fundamentally different then the Caps have been built in some time.  Over the past summer when the Caps decided that GMBM, former Deputy GM Brian , would succeed GMGM his former boss George Mc Phee, I feared the Caps would not change enough.  Then when  free agency opened and the Caps went out and spent big money to bring in not one but two high priced UFA Defensemen, one of whom is 34 years old, I still wondered how this season would play out.  I was encouraged but apprehensive.  The first two full months of the season, and to some degree even now, the jury remains "out." But for me December gave me enough encouragement that I've transitioned from "cautious" through "cautiously optimistic" to just plain "optimistic."   One of the reasons for my shift is that same 34 year old UFA defensemen that GMBM signed over the summer - Brooks Orpik, let's face it the Caps haven't had such a physical "stopper" defensemen on the blueline since trading Brendan Witt to the Nashville Predators during the 2005-2006 season.  And when was the last time the Caps had five bonafide NHL top four caliber defensemen in their lineup?  Clearly the team has and retains a scary good group of forwards who now have scored a total of 120 goals and average of 3.0 goals per game so far this season, buts its the fact that despite having a group of forwards lead by a generational talent who has averaged 0.615 goals/game over his career so far (678 NHL regular season and 58 NHL playoff games) is now clearly built from the goal line out.  A team built so that the offense starts and is rooted in solid defense.  Still not convinced look at the scoring stats of the Capital's blueline corps led by John Carlson who is having a career year: 4 G and 26 A, 30 Points through 40 games played; followed by a resurgent Mike Green: 4 G, 19 A, 23 Points in 32 games played; Karl Alzner with a career high 3 G (and 6 A), even though the season is only half way over.  Brooks Orpik and Matt Niskanen who also have 9 and 13 points respectively.  Clearly the blue liners are stepping up and participating in the offense as well as blocking shots and making sure the overall team defense numbers are looking good including resulting in a average goals against per game of 2.6 goals/game (10th best in the NHL so far this season.)

Then look at the difference in the forwards and the offense - clearly Alexander Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom are at the core of the Capitals "offensive game" but with four other forwards (Fehr, Ward, Brouwer, and Johansson) besides Ovechkin and Backstrom on track for 20+ goal seasons and another six players (Laich, Beagle, Burakovsky, Kuznetsov, Carlson, and Green) likely to end the season with 10+ goals this is clearly a much more balanced group of scoring forwards as well.   And I'm not the only one starting to notice some of the other Washington forwards "gifts" and impact.  If that isn't enough to convince you please also note that 10 different Capitals have scored the game winning goal in the Caps 21 wins so far this season. 

Now back to a quick set of thoughts on the three games this past week. 

Game 38 was a  solidly played, 2 point afternoon home win on Sunday January 4th over the never say die Florida Panthers.  While there were a few flitches and lapses, to my thinking the Caps played a well structured game that they pretty much controlled the full 60:00 IMO. 

Game 39 was a good road game on Wednesday evening in Toronto that ultimately the Caps won in regulation by a score of 6 - 2.  Despite the final score, for the first ~27:00 the game was closer than the final score indicates but from that point on the Caps clearly controlled the game and the Maple Leafs. 

Game 40 was the second game of back to back road games that the Caps stole a point from the Flyers on the back of Braden Holtby's performance in goal last night in Philadelphia.  That said the Caps never quit and it was the second game of  two back to back road games in a hard building to play in and three points out of a possible four in two nights are three points I'd gladly take without complaint.  If you're counting that's five out of a possible six points this past week or 0.833 hockey if you're counting.

Next up the Red Wings at Verizon Center tomorrow evening....

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!

Game 7: Caps At Flames, A Two Point Night; and a Few Other Blog/Hockey Musings

Well I've been back blogging pretty regularly and I guess thanks to a few links over at Japer's Rink I'm getting a fair amount of traffic, not bad for a fanboy blog, IMO.  In any case sorry for the last post/rant but as those who are Caps fans know, I wasn't the only person who avails themselves of these outlets to feel Glen Healy's comments were way over the top.

Before going over the recap of tonight's #CapsFlames and my thoughts on it a few other random
musings on the topic of hockey blogging.  When I started doing this blog in November 2007 there were a fair number of pretty good blogs out there and many like mine were independent.  Since that time a lot have been assembled into various outlets such as Japer's Rink and their affiliation with SB Nation, while other really, really awesome blogs like The Peerless Prognosticator have stayed "independent."  A few of the bloggers whose contribution to the hockey blogsphere inspired me regularly to add to the content out here on the interwebs in a manner I still aspire to have opted to "hang up their keyboards" and revert to their day jobs.  I myself certainly took a pretty solid hiatus from pretty much April 2012 until again in September, feeling I really had nothing to add to the conversation, and blogging had stopped being a place to release some of my creativity in a manner I enjoyed.  In any case it was with some trepidation that I decided to start doing so again a little over a month ago, so its really pleasurable to note that since I started blogging again I've had a fair amount of traffic and folks reading my blog and musings.  Hopefully it's as entertaining for people to read as it is for me to write again, and that remains the same for both you the reader and myself the writer.

Now to musings about this evening/morning's game in Calgary.  As most Caps fans know from various CSN comments, as well as a quick run through the Caps roster, any trip to and through Western Canada means more than a few Caps are likely to spend a chunk of change for friends and family coming to see them play nearer to their "ancestral homes" than at Verizon Center. In Edmonton, Jason Chimera and Braden Holtby were the ones, Chimera playing in his hometown and Holtby playing but a couple of hours from his in Lloydminster, SK; in Calgary, Mike Green and Jay Beagle are "home"; and when the team gets to Vancouver tomorrow, Troy Brouwer, and Karl Alzner will be playing in front of a number of family, and close friends form their youths.  Additionally, as I noted before this three game road trip though Western Canada is likely as good an early measuring stick as any for the Caps progress in adapting to the team's new system and their discipline in playing that system.  The game in Edmonton on Wednesday Evening was executed almost perfectly by the Caps in every way but one - the scoreboard. 

Last evening in Calgary, the Caps played a very good game both on the ice and on the scoreboard.

They came out strong in Calgary and though it took 11:17 for Joel Ward to score the Caps first goal on a powerplay that really wasn't looking very "awesome" to that point, the Caps did control the game through the entire first period.  Unfortunately the as the first period came to a close Dennis Wideman of the Flames tied the game with a PPG for the Flames at the 19:50 mark of the first stanza. The first period ended with the game tied 1-1 but with the momentum still really tilted the Capitals direction, IMO.

In the second period the Caps did cede some of the game's control to the Flames, however thanks once again to a goal by Joel Ward, this time a 5 on 5 goal at 5:41 of the period assisted by Michael Latta and Brooks Orpik.  Despite being pretty stymied by the Flames from mounting much other offense during the middle period, the Caps did not commit any glaring mistakes of their own and went into the final intermission leading the game 2-1 and playing smart, disciplined hockey.

The third period started just the way you wanted it to if you are a Caps fan.  The Capitals came out of the dressing room ready to play.  In fact just 41 seconds into the period, Nicklas Backstrom scored an even strength goal after a really crisp stretch pass from Karl Alzner sprung him on a 1-0 breakaway. Tonight Karl Alzner was clearly one of the best players on the ice as was Brooks Orpik who showed why he was sought after by the Capitals this off season. Another thing to note is while Ovechkin wasn't on the score sheet with any points, he was a force on the ice throughout the game.  His play when he doesn't have the puck just keeps getting better and better in this system, though he does need to go back to shooting the puck some more as he hasn't been as effective these past three games as he was during the first several of this young season.  Also in addition to Ward's scoring which merits mention in any recap of this game, rookies Andre Burakovsky and Evgeny Kuznetsov also looked extremely solid tonight as did Nate Schmidt and Mike Green.  Finally, despite only facing 21 SOG, anytime Braden Holtby posts a 0.952 SV% the Capitals are going to be a very hard team to beat.

Next up the Caps take a quick hop over to Vancouver to take on the Canucks (4-3-0; 7 points, 0.572)at 6:30 PM PDT and 9:30PM EDT tonight. They will likely be facing a well rested Ryan Miller along with the rest of a hungry Vancouver lineup coming off a 7-3 loss in Denver on Friday evening.

LETS GO CAPS!!!

Game 2: Caps Blank Bruins 4-0 In Boston

Well last evening's time watching the Capitals was much more what I was hoping for than the twitter feed vigil I spent on Thursday evening while out of town on business.  Lots of what I was hoping the Caps would be and do under the Barry Trotz coaching regime was in evidence.  The end result was better than I was hoping for as well and that was because Braden Holtby was spectacular last evening else this would have been a different game, one that would have seen the second period start with the Caps up 2-1 at best.  But there is no reason to even go there as Holtby blanked the Bruins even if it did require not one but two highlight reel saves to do it.  So lets get to the things I saw that I really liked.

1) A balanced defense 5 on 5.  As Peerless said over at Japer's Rink and I can say no better:

"Even-strength ice time was parceled out relatively evenly among the top five defensemen, ranging from 15:30 (Green) to 17:19 (Brooks Orpik). Spreading ice time among the three pairs like that (Nate Schmidt was sixth in this group with 13:55) was not something the Caps could do to good effect last season."

In earlier posts this season I highlighted how great a thing this would be - having three pairs of defensemen that the Caps could put on the ice any time in a game without worrying much about matchups to either their own lines or the opponents on the ice with them.  Last night I saw that for the first time in a regular season game.  Unfortunately what we saw doesn't bode well Jack Hillen or John Erskine as far as for either seeing much ice time this season.  What we saw that worked was a FAST and PHYSICAL body of work by all three pairs of Capital Defensemen.  My view is what we've seen in the last two seasons from Erskine likely isn't fast enough and so far Hillen hasn't been either physical or durable enough to  stay in a lineup that plays this game.  However we are seeing that Brooks Orpik is still fast enough to play this game and what he's brought to the Capitals Penalty Kill unit is, IMO, at least enough a part of its success so far this season to be worthy of mention.  Matt Niskanen's play is sublime and clearly the addition of both 2 and 44 are providing the relief that 27, 52, and 74 needed to enable them to play the game better than ever.  And while were on that point, the return of Mike Green to the lineup added significant Octane to the second power play unit but more on that later.

2) Rolling  4 lines.  Look at the TOI numbers on the Event Summary and what do you see.  Forwards even strength ice time ranges from a high of 15:13 (The Gr8: Alex Ovechkin) to a low of 06:12 (23 YO Michael Latta in his first game back from IR).  Take Latta and Liam O'Brian out of the mix and only two other forwards had less than 10:00 of even strength ice time:  NHL Rookies Andre Burakovsky (08:44) and Evgeni Kuznetsov (9:25) but both also had 1:44 of power play time and points on the scorecard.  Burakovsky had two assists on the night and Kuznetsov had one assist on the night.  These number are much different than game one's TOI distribution both up front with the forwards and back on the blue line.  In my view this bodes very well for the Capitals through the season, 82 games is a long haul and this kind of more even TOI distribution should help everyone on the team have a better, longer, healthier season.  That's more important than ever given the tempo of play this system demands through the entire 60 minutes of play.

3) Two for Four on the Power Play; four for four on the Penalty Kill.  Last season the Caps had a great power play but "not so much" on the penalty kill.  I was worried about the power play after the last 2 preseason games and the first game of the season.  Last night BOTH power play units scored.   So Barry Trotz, I think I see what you did there.  The second power play unit - moving Mike Green to basically the same spot Ovi plays on the first unit clearly works.  Green's "half wrister" isn't ass spectacular as Ovi's one timer but it was clearly effective last evening and a shooting Mike Green is a dangerous Mike Green.  With Burakovsky and Kuznetsov on that unit as well, Green isn't the only scoring threat on that unit - not even close to the only one.  As I see it now (hopefully clearly and not through rose tinted shades) Last evening I saw two Power Play units take the ice for the Capitals and on those two units any one of ten (10) skaters could find the back of the net.  Given that and the improvements we've been seeing regularly over last season by the penalty kill units, the Capitals' special teams should finish the season with a pretty solid positive goal differential.  That's something that despite having a lethal power play last season was sadly lacking.

4) Physicality - the Caps had 23 hits (led by Troy Bouwer, Michael Latta, and Alex Ovechkin with 3 a piece), 14 Blocked Shots, and 7 Takeaways.  They did that against a team known for it's physical play and all three of those things.  They clearly were not outmuscled by the Bruins and that's a real start at getting to be the gritty tough team nobody likes to play against that Barry Trotz wants them to be - nice to see things like Ovechkin playing fast, smart and physical; Brouwer being the leader in all facets, we need him to be on the second line and Latta being well Latta - I really have loved his game since that Flyers game last season where he was such a sparkplug.  Smart play NOT taking the bait from Robinson and getting the instigator minor but still going to bat for your teammate, Michael. Also it was nice to see Mike Green and Matt Niskanen giving it to, vice taking it from Milan Lucic.

There's still plenty to worry and work on for sure. 

A) The Caps really haven't controlled the puck as much as anyone would like.  Faceoffs ... a "focus area" for Trotz and staff - last night the Caps were only 36% in the faceoff circle. They need to watch lots of film of how Boston consistently win so many faceoffs, and keep working on this aspect of the game.

B) In shooting attempts (SOG, B/S and MS) the Caps were out attempted by the Bruins 58 - 38, as solid and as hard on the puck as the Caps were last evening, they need to be even more solid and harder. 

C) While the Caps scored 4 on Tukka Rask, a seldom achieved number, and are definitely shooting from closer in and higher percentage areas, they still could and need to generate more traffic in front of the net 5 on 5.  That should come as they also increase and improve their puck possession and attendant offensive zone time but it is still something that needs to be considered by the forwards along with the changes in their approach to a more intense and sustained forecheck.

All in all though the Caps are 1-0-1 after facing two tough opponents and this is a much better start than last season, IMO.  Also three points in October are also three points in April as we all learned the hard way last season.  Next up an opponent the Caps haven't had much luck with the past 20 seasons - San Jose at Verizon Center on Tuesday evening.  Be there or be square...

LETS GO CAPS!!! 

Last Day Of Summer - First Home Preseason Game For Capitals!

  Wow, hard to believe it's here - the end of summer 2014.  For the Washington Capitals I keep hearing how it's been a very long off-season. After seven straight year of making the playoffs, not making the post-season will surely play on the minds of the Capitals players, for many of whom missing the playoffs in 2014 was a new and first time experience they definitely don't want to repeat.  Did it make this summer long for them?  I'm sure it did.  For me I can't believe its September, let alone September is almost over.  While it's hard to think about Ice Hockey on such a lovely day, I'm glad I can though.


I look forward to the resumption of Capitals Hockey every September.  This September I'm as optimistic as ever, perhaps more so. If you, like I, believe what the Capitals have needed was a stronger defense to compliment their awesome cadre of forwards, then you too are probably are pleased with the majority of what we've seen the Capitals do this summer. I'm optimistic and excited.


I'm excited to see what new coach Barry Trotz does with a team that has so much offensive talent.  I'm excited to see what Caps D-Men Green, Carlson and Alzner do as part of a cadre of blue-liners that means whoever is out there for the Capitals on the blue-line can "take it to" the opposing team if they let up one little bit.  I'm excited to see what Evgeny Kuznetsov will do with a full season in the NHL to mature and challenge his hockey skills and sense.  I'm excited to see if Joel Ward and Jason Chimera can match or exceed the year they had last regular season.  I'm excited to see who Trotz pairs Ovechkin and Backstrom with and how he uses and leverages their world class skill sets - I don't know what he will do, but I'm sure we will see yet another perspective on how these two dynamic players can propel their team forward. I'm looking forward to seeing new Caps Orpik and Niskanen play in Capitals Red, I'm really interested in seeing how these two play against Malkin and Crosby when the Caps meet the Pens during this seasons Washington - Pittsburgh games, but I also expect to see them bring a fair amount of drive and grit against the Rangers, Islanders and Canadians.  Like I said I'm excited.

LETS GO CAPS!

Capital's Rookie Camp Barely Underway; TSN Commenters Already Quite Ridiculous and Irritating

Well Caps fans yesterday my Caps Season Ticket Holder (STH) package arrived - not sure if I'll really use my new "Club Red 365" Lunchbox but I like it.  If there was a 10 year old mini-me here I know what his sandwich would be in tomorrow morning.  The arrival of the Caps STH package always cements the idea that hockey season is just around the corner and prompts me to check out the usual hockey blogs and media haunts as well as start some more research as to where and how I think the Capitals prospects and approaches for the upcoming season are starting to flesh out.

If you read my blog last week you'll know I am a fan and generally an optimistic one at that.  Last year this time I was curiously optimistic as to how the Adam Oates era would begin and go here in DC hockey, now we know those answer - short and not at all sweet.  Now we start the Barry Trotz era, given Trotz's last "gig" was so long in Nashville, I think we can all expect our current head coach's era to be longer than our last one here in Cap Nation.  I also think we can look to the style that Nashville played for at least a few clues as to the type of game he is going to be expecting from the Capitals and we will be watching.  Combined with the off season Free Agent pickups I think we will be looking at - believe it or not - a much higher energy game plan, and yes a "200 foot game" as has been speculated.

 But what does that really mean, I'm thinking shorter shifts for the forward lines and shifts of no more than 1:00 on average for the Blue Liners.  To me, I expect at the end of this regular season Ovechkin and Backstrom will have played 77+ games and have an ATOI of 18:45 - 20:00 - there 5 on 5 Corsi and +/- will be at career highs; and both will be 100+ point producers for the season with no more that 50% of those points coming on the power play.  Remember that you read that here first. Why did I lead off with that - just read the comments to this article over on TSN - it's typical of what their readers usually post about our Captain who they clearly do not watch actually play. Further if at any time you've ever wondered why reading my blog I'll occasionally rant about  "xenophobia" against anyone who is not a Canadian in the NHL in hockey media, etc.  just read more comments in articles on TSN where posters talk about any Russian, European or American players.  Now back to my more on point hockey musings.  I think the improved success of Backstrom and Ovechkin will be sparked by two things an even more talented and creative new Left Wing on the line (either Kuznetsov or perhaps Burakovsky) and smoother, faster breakouts from the Defensive zone enabled by a collectively more talented, bigger defensive corps. To me the addition of Niskanen is huge - it means the Caps now will have three pairings with anchored by a really skilled puck mover.  It takes a huge load off Mike Green and John Carlson and means other teams cannot sit back at all when 74 and 52 are on the bench.  Orpik brings grit and means gives some relief to Alzner - his addition means that 27 isn't the only NHL top four "shutdown" D-Man on the team; but I feel Niskanen's addition means other teams will have to play a much more intense forecheck if they expect to beat the Capitals during a game's five on five play.  I also think these changes mean the Caps, who had and continue to have tons of talent on the forward lines, now have a full set of three defensive pairings that will be able play the same game no matter who is out on the ice.  That will mean opponents won't be able to focus so much of their game plan on stopping 8 and 19.

Play the above out through the 40 minutes of each game that Ovechkin and Backstrom are on the bench and it should mean the rest of the team will also have more room to play the game and put up solid five on five numbers.  I don't see any reason why 42, 25 and 20 can't once again have career or near career years.  As with last week's article I think this year could be the year when we see if 90 is really better off as a natural center and a second line of Burakovsky (if Kuznetsov is on the first line) - Johansson - Brouwer could be surprisingly awesome.  I would NEVER count Eric Fehr out of the mix for the top lines.  Last season Chimera and Ward made whoever played pivot between them better, IMO.  I believe Tom Wilson will continue to develop, as will Casey Wellman as well.  What does the above mean - to me it means that Brooks Laich and Jay Beagle as well as any other forward on the team better show up to camp as fit as they've ever been and ready to play a harder faster game than they've ever played if they expect to be in this lineup on Thanksgiving.  The same really goes for the blue line corps.  I expect this team, far more than the 2013-14 Capitals will push each other to be much better hockey players both as individuals and as a team.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!

Looking Ahead to the 2014-15 Washington Capitals ...

It's been quite a while since my last blog post here but I just thought about it more and more and missed this outlet - at least for my hockey musings.  So with my cautiously optimistic feelings about the prospects for the Capitals during the upcoming 2014-15 NHL Season nearly upon us and training camp just two weeks from opening, I decided to begin "blogging" about my musings again.

I look at this off season's moves and can really only forecast one thing with high certainty - that is the 2014-15 Washington Capitals will play a different game and style than the 2013-14 Washington Capitals.  What that "game" and style will be remains to be seen, though I think it will be a grittier, 200 foot game than they played last season.  I also think they'll be more focused on sound play at 5 on 5 and they will start their breakouts from their own end with shorter crisper passes than they did last season.  Those are just "hunches" but it sure seems to be something one can say after having watched the Nashville Predators mush during the past several seasons.  Combine that with the free agent pickups - Orpik and Niskanen - and I think one has to conclude the changes are likely to be focused on creating and playing a more "balanced" solid five on five game. 

However, what will the lineup look like? Who will be the Capitals Defensive pairings?  Who will be the First Line Left Wing?  Who will be the Second Line Center?  Will Jason Chimera and Joel Ward once again have career or near career years?  Will this be "the year"? These and so many questions are percolating in my cranium, I can't help but muse about them... As I've mentioned before, I am at my core - an optimist.  I also really felt at the end of last season the Capitals needed to make some fundamental changes and I've always liked what I saw the Smashville Predators do when they were led by Barry Trotz.  Brooks Orpik was a guy I loved to hate as a Penguin but I'm happy the Caps picked him up, yes I think it's a contract that is "one year too long and one million too much" but I'd rather the Caps give it to a guy like Orpik then some of the guys who got those deals in the past - I think he'll be a solid leader "in the room."  I actually think the Caps got Niskanen at a fair to good value.  I also think that add those two guys to the other guys on the Caps blueline: Carlson, Alzner, Green, Orlov, Carrick, Olesky and Schmidt and you are looking at a group of nine guys that will form a much better and more stable group than the thirteen plus that cycled through the roster last season.  Of course look at what that statement likely means: 1) what do they do with John Erskine; 2) Orlov, Carrick, Olesky, Wey and Schmidt - pick three of the five...

Lets talk the answer to 1) I love John Erskine but if there's room for him in the mix after the Orpik and Niskanen UFA signings then it will not be a good regular season for the Capitals, IMO. Others will say the odd man out should be Mike Green but I look at him John Carlson as the guys who will benefit most from the Orpik and Niskanen, particularly the Niskanen  signing.  To me assuming he comes to Camp ready play and play hard, the number six D-Man is likely Orlov.  Behind those six I see Carrick, Olesky, Schmidt and Wey before I get to Erskine on the Capitals Depth Chart as I see this team shaping up both next season and then almost surely any season beyond then.  Erskine has twelve (12) seasons of NHL experience and he has great size (6-4; 220) he's a total beast and "hockey player's hockey player" IMO but his foot speed just isn't there for the game I think the Caps will be looking to play.  Also note - I put Jack Hillen who is also still on the roster below Erskine on that depth chart, so as for people who worry about the salary cap situation there's $2.6M of salary cap space tied up on Hillen and Erskine vs. $2.4M total for all four of Carrick, Olesky, Schmidt and Wey. So if you give two of the young guys the 7 and 8 slots on the roster vice "4" and "38" and you've freed up $1.2M of Salary Cap for the season...

Now onto 2) Orlov, Carrick, Olesky, Schmidt and Wey - pick three of the five.  I pick Orlov (I think he's the most NHL ready of the five despite some of the bonehead moves he made last season); Schmidt (the only Left Hand Shot of the other four); and Olesky (I give him the shot at the start of this season as I like his grit, hockey smarts, and size).  I think both Wey and Carrick can use at least a half season of regular play in Hershey to bulk up a little in Carrick's case and get used to a pro vs. NCAA game in Wey's case. But in no way should any of these guys be competing with Hillen or Erskine for ice time or roster spots beyond the first week of the season - the Caps need to move 4 and 38 before then, IMO.

Now what about who should be the first line right wing?  To me the two choices are Kuznetsov or Johannson, both are Left Hand shots and natural Centers but to play where they think they should - as top six forwards - then the logical place for them is on Backstrom and Ovechkin's Left Wing.  To me the guy I think meshes best with 19 and 8 of these two is 92 - Kuznetsov.  He's also bigger and as fast or faster than 90 - Johannson at 6-0; 172# - with a little help from the Caps Strength and Conditioning team the 21 year old should be able to add another 10-12 pounds of muscle without loosing any flexibility or slowing any other aspect of his game.  That should make a 92 - 19 - 8 line into a first line on par with any in the league and very much to Barry Trotz's coaching stff's liking as long as they backcheck as fearlessly as they can and do when they "want it."  That leaves Johannson free for part of the discussion to the next question which is the 2nd and 3rd line Centers...

If 92-19-8 are the first line that leaves 16, 20, 21, 25, 42, 43, 46, 48,83, and 90.  Just to make the discussion more traditional and despite them both having career years in 2013-2014 lets call 25 (Jason Chimera) and 42 (Joel Ward) the third line wings; and lets say after we finish the discussion of the "second line" we'll need to assign a center to them - since last season it seemed like they made whoever played between them look better than they had looked elsewhere in the lineup.  The "second line" for the Caps, at least coming into this season remains pretty much undetermined and a bit of a mess.  Going by salary cap hit the logic thing to say is the second line is 20 - 21 -16; however that didn't seem to work last season because 21 (Laich) couldn't stay healthy; also even when he was in the lineup he looked out of place there - at center - in Adam Oates' system.  Personally I think that Johannson is a natural center, as is Fehr and that Laich should be played at Right Wing; but with a productivity last season of just 8 goals and 7 assists in 51 games (0.29 pts/game) it remains debatable whether the Caps can afford to give the 31 year old Laich top six or even top 9 forward ice time at even strength.  Personally, if he doesn't light it up early and show he's back in top form at training camp and the first 10 games I'd drop him to the fourth line and have him focus on his Penalty Killing if they can't trade him or don't want to waive/buy him out.  For the start of the season though I'd put Laich at second line left wing and have either Fehr (16) or Johansson (90) at Center and have Brower over on Right Wing.   That way if Laich doesn't "cut it"/regain top form which unfortunately I don't think he will, I could quickly go to a 16-90-20 second line.  It's really time, in my opinion to move Laich somehow though to clear Cap Space and a roster spot for a stable second line, as this is the final year of Ward and Fehr's current contracts.  So I'd start the season with 21-16-20 as the "second" line and 25-90-42 as the "third" line.

My fourth line would be 43 - 83 - 46/48 (Wilson - Beagle - Latta/Wellman).  So that means I'd send Volpatti to Hershey - which requires he clear waivers, or trade him.  So to recap that makes my forecast opening season roster for the Capitals is:

Kuznetsov - Backstrom - Ovechkin
Laich - Fehr - Brouwer
Chimera - Johannson - Ward
Wilson - Beagle - Latta/Wellman

Green - Orpik
Carlson - Alzner
Niskanen - Orlov
Schmidt/Olesky

Holtby
Peters.

I think that will be a better team than we ended the season with last April

Another Week Down and With It Came At Least Some Small Resons to Hope The Capitals Can Salvage A Season Yet...

Well Caps fans in the week since my last blog post "our" Washington Capitals have gone 2-1-0, giving us all at least some reason to hope this year's Capitals can salvage a reasonable season and maybe even make a playoff run.  Further last weekend we all got to see how "the system" when played well can beat anybody, in fact the New Jersey Devils played "the system" to perfection and beat the Pittsburgh Penguins, including demi-god Sidney Crosby not once BUT twice this past week.  Further the Capitals used and played they system very well a systematically took apart the Florida Panthers - last years SE Division champions 5-0 on Saturday at Verizon Center.  Then they faced and beat a well coached and adjusted Panthers team last night in a comeback OT 6-5 win at Sunrise, FL.  So to me those are reasons to hope.

Of course hope is not a plan, nor is it any sort of "done deal."  Tomorrow the Caps take on the explosive Tampa By Lightning in Saint Petersburg, FL and they must "keep the pedal to the medal" if they are to really start dogging out of this early season hole they've put themselves in.  The good news if there is any on that front is there are no teams in the Eastern Conference who are as "on fire" or playing as strongly as either the Chicago Blackhawks or the Anaheim Ducks are in the Western Conference.  Chicago is red hot playing 0.888 hockey since the season started while Anaheim isn't far behind playing 0.792 hockey 25% of the way through the season.  By contrast Eastern Conference leader New Jersey is playing very well at 0.730 but nowhere near 0.800 hockey.  While we cannot yet talk about the Capitals in such terms looking at 50 or 52 points as a "magic number" to definitely make the playoffs this season in the Eastern Conference that means the Capitals now have to play a solid but achievable 0.614 the rest of this season.  They've doe it before, and with 14 of their remaining 35 games against SE Division rivals whom they've done very well against these past few seasons, they certainly have a chance to do so again.

I'm not burying my head in the sand - the Capitals have a long road in front of them now. That said I
have no reason to or intention of jumping on the bandwagon of naysayers, ever.  It's not my thing, I've said for a while now, I'm not a "journalist" nor do I want to pretend to be, this is a fan's blog, and I'm the fan.  In addition to their two recent wins here's a few other reasons I now have hope:

1) Alexander Ovechkin seems more and more comfortable on the Right Wing and his productivity is rising.  In addition to having the same "sick" skilz he always had on LW, his play now is a) much more defensively responsible, b) much more creative - he's making the others on the ice with him better and at the same time notching his own scoring points; and c) he's clearly matured and is the team's Captain as well as it's star.  I congratulate both Ovechkin for taking the risk and allowing himself to be coached even though he already was a league superstar and new coach Adam Oates for not giving up and proving all the naysayers around the league wrong - Ovechkin is proving to be very coachable by a coach who is as intense, dedicated, and imaginative to excellence as he is.

2) Mike Ribero is the player we all hoped we were picking up when the Caps retooled and let Semin go to Carolina to create the Cap Space necessary to once again have two top six Centerman.  I could fill the rest of this blog post with superlatives for "Ribz" but his play has been speaking for itself for some considerable time.

3) The second AND third lines have been key to the Caps solid play, and Nicklas Backstrom seemed to be determined to let everyone know he's still around and as awesome a playmaker and passer as ever whether passing to Troy Brouwer; Joel Ward or Ovechkin.

4) At he beginning of the season I wondered who of Mathieu Perrault and Marcus Johanasson would become the "Brian Gionta" of the 2013 Capitals.  Based on the last two games, it appears that MP85 is determined it be him, it'll be interesting to see what happens the next time MJ90 gets a crack at the lineup.

5) The top four defenseman: Green, Alzner; Carlson; and Erskine have all, in my view, fully embraced and become comfortable with the new system and are making very few mental mistakes at all.  Tomas Kundratek is making a believer of me as well, and begrudgingly I have to say Jeff Schultz is the right guy o be in the lineup right now, though I would like to see "Mr. Nasty" play with more physicality and I believe when he's back to being healthy Jack Hillen should get another shot in the lineup as well.  So where does that leave Poti and Hamrlik - I'd say at this point the Caps should look to trade one or the other for something they might want, especially with Orlov in the wings as well.  When was the last time the Caps had that sort of luxury - an extra D-Man to shop?

6) Goaltending hasn't been on fire but it's not a big issue right now - witness last evening's 6-5 SO win over the Panthers.  If the Caps hadn't gotten into playing fire wagon hockey in the second period with the Panthers, particularly the Weiss-Hubredeau line, there's no way the panthers are even in the game... SV% aside.

So that's why I have some hope today for a decent season by the Capitals, I'm still concerned and the Caps need to keep their focus and drive going for all 35 remaining games, but if they want to, "they got this."

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

What If ... The NHL Season Started On 1/1/2012 and a Few other Random Musings About Hockey ...

After last night's Caps 4-1 win over the Montreal Canadians I started thinking ... what would things in the NHL look like if the season had started on New Year's Day? Why do I care you ask - well first off our Washington Capitals remain "on the bubble" even after what was another good game against Montreal, and I think that recent trends, records, etc should be weighted more heavily when trying to forecast near future performance. I wonder what a real statistician such as Neil Greenberg (see Twitter #fancystats or @ngreenberg) thinks of that line of thinking and if long term historical data backs that thinking up. In any case because I started wondering about that topic I compiled the following updated standings - the way the standings by Division would look if the season had started on January 1st vice the current 2011-2012 standings. NHL Records Since January 1st 2012 through Midnight Last Night (2/24/2012, 24:00 Local Time):

Southeast Division:
Carolina: 10-5-6 (26 points; 0.619)
Winnipeg: 11-12-2 (24 points; 0.480)
Washington: 10-11-3 (23 points; 0.479)
Tampa Bay: 9-10-3 (21 points; 0.477)
Florida: 7-8-5 (19 points; 0.475)

Atlantic Division:
New York Rangers: 15-5-2 (32 points; 0.727)
New Jersey: 14-6-3 (31 points; 0.674)
New York Islanders: 13-10-2 (28 points; 0.560)
Pittsburgh: 13-8-1 (27 points; 0.614)
Philadelphia: 11-10-3 (25 points; 0.521)

Northeast Division:
Ottawa: 13-7-3 (29 points; 0.630)
Boston: 12-9-2 (26 points; 0.565)
Toronto: 11-10-2 (24 points; 0.522)
Buffalo: 10-10-3 (23 points; 0.500)
Montreal: 10-10-3 (23 points; 0.500)

Central Division:
Detroit: 17-5-2 (36 points; 0.783)
Saint Louis: 16-5-2 (34 points; 0.739)
Nashville: 15-5-2 (32 points; 0.727)
Chicago: 9-12-3 (21 points; 0.438)
Columbus: 7-13-2 (16 points; 0.364)

Northwest Division:
Vancouver: 16-3-4 (36 points; 0.783)
Calgary: 10-7-4 (24 points; 0.571)
Colorado: 10-9-3 (23 points; 0.523)
Edmonton: 9-11-3 (21 points; 0.457)
Minnesota: 6-12-3 (15 points; 0.357)

Pacific Division:
Anaheim: 16-4-4 (36 points; 0.750)
Phoenix: 12-5-5 (29 points; 0.659)
San Jose: 13-9-3 (29 points; 0.580)
Dallas: 11-11-3 (25 points; 0.500)
Los Angeles: 8-8-6 (22 points; 0.500).

Interesting to note that looking at the Southeast Division it's definitely a race to the bottom per say. In the 55 days this year the team in the Southeast with the most points is the Carolina Hurricanes with 26 out of a possible 42 and a 0.619 record. The Hurricanes are the only team in the Southeast with a record that's better than 0.500 since New Years Day. Ironically, they started the season so badly, they are the one team in the division who are most certainly "sellers" in the short time before the trade deadline as they are on track for a season point total that likely will end up with 86 points at best. In other words, the best they can likely hope for is to find themselves 2 points on the back side (wrong side) of the forecasted 88 point peak of the bubble. However, they can certainly play the role of spoilers for their Southeast Division rivals who they will play in 9 of their 21 remaining games. Also in case you are wondering they play the Capitals in only one of those 21 remaining games: March 6th at Verizon Center. Only 6 of the Capitals remaining 21 games are against Southeast Division foes: Carolina, once on March 6th at Verizon; Tampa Bay once in DC on March 9th and once in Tampa on April 2nd; Winnipeg once in Alberta on March 16th and once in DC on March 23rd; and Florida once at Verizon Center on April 5th the Caps final home game of the 2011-2012 regular season. Given the Caps records so far this season against their division rivals (10-6-2) it's kind of a shame they don't have more games left against those division foes, of course it's also a shame the Caps can't play the 2011-2012 Montreal Canadians at least 14 of their remaining 21 games as well.

Looking at the Northeast Division team's play since 1/1/2012 you can see the "hottest" team in the Division has been the Ottawa Senators who are playing very well after getting the season off to a relatively slow start. Also of note, eight (8) of the Senators remaining 20 regular season games are against Northeast Division rivals, including two against the Bruins who they are battling for first in the Division. If the Senators are able to win all four of their remaining games against the Maple Leafs and Bruins (three are against the boys from beantown) they could well overtake Boston and finish the season with the second seed in the Eastern Conference. Also, despite dealing with a spate of injuries this past month, Boston is still playing solid hockey and thanks to Tim Thomas and Tukka Rask never a team to give up points easily to opponents. If recent past efforts are solid predictors of future performance then Toronto will continue to struggle with getting off the bubble and end the season with between 85 and 90 points. That means tonight's game in Toronto is going to be an important one for both the Capitals and the Maple Leafs.

The Atlantic Division has been the toughest division in the Eastern Conference all season and the last eight weeks have not been any different in that regard then the first three months of the NHL season. That said the last eight weeks have seen the Philadelphia Flyers struggle while the New York Rangers continued to soar and the New jersey Devils came alive. To be clear even though the Flyers have the worst record since January 1 in the Division - EVERY team in the Atlantic has a record that is greater than 0.500, they are the only division in the NHL that can make that claim though the Pacific has two teams who are at 0.500 even since New Years Day and no one below 0.500 as well. It's pretty much a toss up in my view as to which division is the toughest in the NHL right now between the Atlantic or the Pacific. I guess that's a good thing if you like the beach. As for the battle to win this division, despite the resurgence of the Devils, the Rangers looked pretty unstoppable until their last two games, it will be interesting to see what they do in Buffalo tonight.

The Central Division led by the Detroit Red Wings and Saint Louis Blues have been the standard of consistency. Their standings remain the same wether you are looking at the entire season or just that stretch of it since January 1. Both the Red Wings and the Blues are battling each other for the Division, as well with the Canucks for as the Western Conference title. Ironically only two of the remaining 61 regular season contests the Blues, Red Wings and Canucks play are between each other so their performance against other Division and Conference foes will determine who wins the Central Division and the Conference. the most important team in that mix is likely to be the Nashville Predators who play the Blues once in Saint Louis on March 27th; the Red Wings twice more (3/10 and 3/30). Another interesting team likely to play a factor in the mix is also the Anaheim Ducks who have the third best record in the NHL since New Years Day, of the Ducks remaining 21 games, they play the Blues twice, the Red Wings twice, the Predators once and the Canucks once...

In the Northwest Division, here too the standings remain unchanged if the season had started on 1/1 instead of the first week of October. Additionally, just like the actual full season standings, the Vancouver Canucks are poised to pretty much lap their division foes. In fact Vancouver's relative between themselves and their division rivals is even great since January 1st as it has been over the full season. Since January 1st the Canucks are 6 games ahead of the Flames and since October they are 10 games (20 points) ahead of Calgary. The one difference is a likely bright spot for Calgary, they could finish the season with as few as 85 and as many as 95 points, but since New Years they are playing better and better hockey, since January they are 0.571 but over their las ten games they are playing 0.700 hockey. In short, the trend is the Flame's friend right now and thirteen of their remaining 21 games are at home in Calgary where they have they have a season long 0.625 record and where they have a 6-3-1 record in the last 10 games played in the Saddledome. As important as Calgary's own play in their remaining games is to whether or not they make the playoffs, so too is the play of the Chicago Blackhawks, Dallas Stars, San Jose Sharks and Phoenix Coyotes. The Blackhawks are 4-6-0 in their last ten games and have the worst record in that stretch of any team in the Western Conference Playoff battle not named San Jose who are 3-6-1, but again more on the Pacific Division shortly. If Calgary and Chicago continue the play they've each had over the last ten games through the next ten games, they will find themselves within a point of each other and battling for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. In the case of Calgary that's not bad for a team who finds themselves training their division leaders by 10 complete games with just 21 games remaining in the season. In short unless something like the roof blowing off Vancouver's arena, there's pretty much no other way Calgary will be playing hockey this post season.

That all brings us to what is shaping up to be the most interesting Division in the NHL to follow for the remaining six weeks of this regular season - the Pacific. How bad was the Anaheim Ducks first three months of the 2011-2012 season, well they've played 0.750 hockey since january 1st, the third best record in the league and they are still: i) in last place in their division and ii) at best going to finish on the bubble and likely needing some help to make the playoffs. that said, for any #Caps fans, if you needed proof that bruce Boudreau knows how to coach in the NHL, well the Anaheim Ducks record since January 1 of 16-4-4 ought to be it. Further, the Ducks team goal differential over their opponents during that 24 game span is +11 also their GAA over those 24 games is only 2.04 vs a GFA of 2.92, in other words this is a team that is playing and winning stingy hockey, "the right way." As you can imagine if there's a possibility that the way things are going the team at the bottom of the division could end up on the right side of the bubble and in the playoffs, AND the rest of the division is also playing 0.500 hockey or better over the past eight weeks things could be getting pretty interesting "on the left coast" of the NHL. They are. Anaheim could finish with as many as 94 points and in the playoff race. San Jose is trending the other way, the Division leaders are 0.580 since 1/1/2012 and just 0.350 in their last ten games. It's entirely possible if San Jose doesn't turn things around they too could finish with as few as 88 points and out of the playoffs. Meanwhile the rest of the division is trending as follows. Phoenix is on fire they are 9-0-1 in their last ten games and 0.659 since New Years, they will likely win the division with between 98 and 103 points, though they could finish with as few as 94 points I just don't see that happening unless some key parts of this team gets hurt. Dallas will likely finish with between 85 and 92 points; they are in a dog fight. The Stars remaining 21 games includes playing the Vancouver Canucks four times; additionally they play the Calgary Flames, another "bubble team" three more times. As far as "four point games" against division rivals, the Stars play San Jose three times, and Anaheim once, so at least eleven of their remaining 21 games are shaping up to be potentially battle royales. That leaves us with the enigmatic, at least this season, Los Angeles Kings. The Kings are 0.500 since January 1 and 0.540 over the entire season; LA is likely to finish the season with between 83 and 90 points. How's that for a bubble team? The Kings remaining schedule involves 12 road games and 9 home games, since the Kings are 12-9-8 (0.552) on the road, vice 15-13-4 (0.531) at home that's likely not a factor in how they finish the season. The Kings' remaining schedule involves playing a pretty balanced schedule against predominately higher quality opponents, they only have 6 of their remaining 21 games against opponents who are under 0.500 since January 1. They likely need to raise their game "a little" above the 2-6-2 level they've displayed over their past ten outings to come close to being on the top, let alone the "right side" of the bubble; but that's why they actually play the games on the ice.

As for prognostications about "my team" the Washington Capitals, I am steadfastly avoiding doing that. It's clear by the fact that Alexander Ovechkin is playing through an injury, the team knows they need to play to win every one of their remaining 21 games and they are ready to try and do that. Last night's 4-1 win over a pretty hapless, or at least a Hal Gill-less, Montreal was a solid outing. Tonight's second of back to back nights, away game against a much more solid playing Toronto Maple Leafs team will be a real test. I'm hoping for another solid performance and will be watching here at home and cheering for the boys. Some things I liked about last night's game at Verizon:
1) A solid leadership performance by @Ovi8;
2) Great game and two way hockey by Sasha Semin;
3) Joel Ward - off the schneid;
4) Mike Green well on the way to getting his game and timing back;
5) Nuevy made all the saves he should have made and more than enough of the really tough ones the team needed him to make;
6) Blue liners looked pretty solid all night.

Of course it's a lot easier to be positive after a W and two points but you have to take things one game at a time. As for tonight in Ottawa:

LETS GO CAPS!!!!