If You Ever Wondered ...

Fall is in the air here in "Bucoulic Bristow" the leaves on the hardwoods are turning, sunny Saturday traffic on Westbound route 66 will be packed with cars heading to Skyline Drive to see the fall splendor tomorrow.

Oh and  wow, it only took six games for Hockey's "mainstream (lower case because of the following lower class examples) media" (MSM) to decide they want to continue to pummel on their made up idea that "Alexander Ovechkin is a stupid, coach killer."  See here.  Such tripe only continues to fuel my belief that since Hockey's MSM is filled with Canadians, who still apparently can't stomach the fact that Europeans and Russians can play their National Game too, 98+% of what they write (or is that "wright" or "rite" who knows, or they say on TV) is fueled by Hockey Xenophobia.  But hey why listen to his current coach, who has not been fired and has an Ovechkin led team playing 0.667 hockey, on pace for a 109 point season ( See Here)?  I mean wouldn't you rather listen to some guy who still craves the spotlight even though his on ice career is over or even worse is a "Never Was" let alone a "Used to Be".  I don't know why Healy, Krypos, or anyone else's comments get me "going" but they sure do so here's a couple of points to muse - backed by facts and real data instead of sensationalistic, bigoted adjectives and "bloviation":

A) Ovi's average shift time, as with the rest of the Capitals is shorter than ever - and it's a product as I see it of the new system that EVERYONE on the Capitals including the Captain, Alexander Ovechkin buys into.  Until I listened to Healy, I always thought "buying in" was a trait associated with being "coachable" though I admit and point out that is a "second order" relationship.  I offer the "Event Summary" from the Edmonton game and suggest if you or even better Glenn Healy before he spouts off inaccurate "stuff" again examine ANY of the other 5 games statistics of real data available for 2014-15 Season. If you don't want to go read it, in Edmonton Ovi played 22 shifts in the game with an average shift length including the 2:11 TOI he had on the PP of 53. 73 seconds.  Ovechkin's average shift length in every game so far this season has been tracking, similar and shorter than the other two forwards on his line (Backstrom and either Fehr or Brouwer) throughout the season. Further reinforcing evidence to me that he is indeed playing the system as desired by his coaches.  The only difference on this last game is Ovi only had 2 SOG and 5 attempts vice more in earlier games.  Of course a guy who's shooting percentage so far this season is markedly higher than it has been over his earlier career, might be also changing where he shoots from.  Also, how many SOG he takes when he isn't in those higher percentage areas might also be lower, of course that's just speculation on my part, and probably NOT something a "dumb" player with awards like a Hart Trophy would think to do.....

B) As far as loosing the room and/or other reasons why either Glen Hanlon, Bruce Boudreau, or Adam Oates were replaced as Caps coach, sure the easy thing to do is point to Ovi's big contract and role as Captain and say he's the reason.  However, as a guy who's been focused on the Capitals through Ovechkin's entire career to date I feel otherwise and point to the following:

1. Glen Hanlon:  Hanlon was replaced in November 2007,  Ovehkin's current contract was signed in January 2008.  While some could say perhaps Ovi was the reason Hanlon was fired and the driver is/was Ovi's current contract, to me at best that's a third order relationship.  Perhaps Ovi then playing under his entry level contract, and his team of advisors that does include his Mother (a two time Gold Medalist and former Commissioner of a women's pro basketball league, who probably knows something about winning formulae,  was saying that among other things he did not think Hanlon didn't seem to be the coach to reach that level, but clearly there were other things they wanted before hitching Alex's star to the Capitals for what was likely his entire career. Further there were a lot of other current and former players who had issues with Hanlon's playing not to loose system.
   
2. Bruce Boudreau:  Come on?  All on Ovi?  Really if you feel that you really didn't follow the Capitals.  I agree that letting Boudreau go wasn't a smart move or answer to the Caps woes when it happened, but he had lost over "half" the room if I can read between the line.  I'll also agree that Ovi was indeed one of the guys Boudreau lost.  I don't know why but I'll guess that Boudreau wanted to change up his system slightly - a system that in the regular season had frankly served Boudreau, Ovechkin and the entire team well, and Ovechkin was saying Hey, Coach Why Mess With Success? Instead of okay lets tweak things.  That said I'll bet just as Trotz's "leadership group" is a way for him to manage things and different, and Ovi is clearly responding differently to things like this now, Boudreau handled things like this differently since he arrived in Anaheim. So I guess I am saying I agree if you want to say Alexander Ovechkin is one of the reasons Boudreau was fired but he wasn't the only reason.
   
3. Dale Hunter: Again come on.  Hunter wasn't the right guy.  He is like a King and Dictator in London and he likes it that way.  He was never going to be happy in the NHL as a coach.  As soon as he realized it was going to take a couple of years to get the Stanley Cup as a Coach he was going to insist whoever was GM do things his way as much as he was going to tell his star player, especially a non-North American player to shut up, sit down, and block shots first and foremost.  I'm betting the entire room, except for a few of the guys who played for him in London, grimaced every time he talked to them in front of his "Fathead" at KCI.  Total transparency here - I am not a lifelong Capitals fan and based on what he did in 1993 and I could never fault any hockey player for having trouble respecting the guy who did this. No to me Ovechkin wasn't the reason Hunter isn't the coach today - I'm betting he asked for some aspect of control, driven by his ego, that neither Leonsis or McPhee wanted to give a guy capable of being that out of control.
   
4. Adam Oates:  Look Oates is a Hall of Famer and in his first half of season as Caps coach I think him moving Ovi to right wing worked for both of them and made Ovi a better player so how does that make Ovechkin "uncoachable"? Bottom line is the way last season ended lost Oates and McPhee their jobs and put this entire team, including Ovechkin, "on probation." Anyone who thinks, says, or writes otherwise is NOT looking at the big picture.  Clearly from the off-season moves the Capitals ORGANIZATION realized the blueline needed more focus, both in the system being played AND the personnel playing it.  Further a decision seems to have also been made, rightly so, IMO, that a winning team in the post season needed to play more of a "Western Conference" type game and say what you will but to me, Oates' system was more an Eastern Conference, tweaked New Jersey Devils approach to hockey than Trotz brings from his long tenure in "Smashville."  Finally post season comments by guys that include very stoic, clearly team players like Karl Alzner make me believe a LOT of post season discussions between ownership and players would have only further solidified a belief it was time for a change in both the GM AND the coaches offices here in DC.

C) Dumb? Not the sharpest knife in the drawer"?  "his mommy negotiated his contract and that's dumb" or any similar backhanded implication of such - come on.  Okay, Ovi never "gradiated" from a prestigious North American University like Western Michigan University like Healy did. Nor did he create any sort of on air in depth analysis segment, like Healy that highlights good players having bad games. I mean coming up with something like that requires deep thinking, after all it is the hockey media's equivalent of a movie like "Jacka$$", and no doubt requires a really smart creative guy to come up with something as intellectually stimulating as his TSN segments were/are. But Ovi did avoid paying 10% to someone outside his true inner circle to negotiate a contract, that at the time was the richest ever negotiated in NHL history.  He does have numerous endorsement deals worldwide that help he and others in the hockey world raise awareness for what is, world-wide, a niche sport.  He is bilingual, though it did take several years for him to be so and he still talks with pretty deep Russian accent. How well do you think Healy, Krypos, or any of these other MSM geniuses speak a second language? I know Ovi's English is a lot, lot better than my Russian, or my German, or my Spanish....

Healy played 15 NHL seasons and 437 NHL games as a NHL goaltender and managed a career 0.888 SV% a 3.37 GAA and 166 wins.  Contrast that to Ovi's career to date 9 NHL seasons, 678 games played, 422 goals, 392 assists, 3 World Championships (+ a silver and 2 bronzes) and yes NO Stanley Cups or Olympic Gold Medals, yet. Also Six (6) time first team and three (3) time second team NHL All Star; Calder Trophy, Hart Trophy (MVP) - 3X;  Art Ross Trophy (2008) and Richard Trophy (four times). Why not buy into Healy's assessments, ignore Ovechkin's current coach's recent statements and the basic facts/contrast of between a long tenured, "average" former NHL player, and one of it's current superstars?  Could this just not be a guy like Healy frustrated that a Non-Canadian like Ovi has kids in Edmonton lining up for his autograph and wearing his Jersey and number while often the only guys from Healy's era they remember or have heard about are truly generational players like Gretzky, Messier, etc? Of course, me I disagree with Healy's assessment of Ovechkin and look at him, as I do Crosby, as one of those generational players and start, who I have the pleasure of watching play at least 82 games a season.

 Of course the most ridiculous thing to note is that in spite of all the trash the SI NHL beat writers spew about Ovechkin, he was selected by them as "NHL Player of the Year" in 2013, I'm pretty sure that's the season they now say he was a coach killer to Boudreau and Hunter, showing just what jokes they are as hockey writers, at least to me.  And who is the dumb one?  I mean isn't it "dumb" to contradict yourselves so loudly and vociferously as they seem to do? Wouldn't a "smart" person, say one with a degree from such a prestigious university as Western Michigan (which ranks academically as 181 per US News and World Report) at least know when to research things and use facts accurately in a debate?  I mean even I know there's these things called the Internet and fancy search engines like "Google" to find out actual facts and statistics to use to confirm or refute my suspicions.  Then in a debate in front of millions I might actually only use those arguments that are substantiated by facts, I'm pretty sure it was news to Barry Trotz that with a 2-1-2 record he'd been fired this week. Finally yes Ovi's Mother is his agent, per say.  Her qualifications - two gold medals in Olympic basketball, and she was the head of a  Professional Basketball League and his father was a professional soccer player. So I'm pretty sure when he and they decided they didn't need some former hockey player, likely Canadian, or otherwise or an American or Canadian Lawyer to negotiate his contract with Ted Leonsis, they knew what they were doing. In retrospect, it looks to me like they had about 12.5 Million reasons to go the way they did - and for my money only a stupid person would ignore that many reasons to do something.

Sure, when a team doesn't succeed and that gets a coach fired every player, particularly the leading players in the lineup bear some of the blame.  But when you read the SI article how can you ever wonder why Ovechkin, or any similar athlete say, when they are being honest, they really don't care and CANNOT care what media, has beens, used to bes or never could bes, say?  Also and this is me talking, how can you conclude anything other than these guys i) have some kind of ax to grind, ii) write/say things that are intentionally sensationalistic to garner attention, and iii) SI is the worst place to read anything about Hockey.

Next up for Trotz and his un-coachable Captain - the Flames tomorrow evening in Calgary.  I can't wait to hear the commentary from guys like Healy and Krypos after that game, regardless of the results or facts. Sorry for the rant I hope you at least found it entertaining, this fanboy, just had to get it off his chest.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!!!!

It's Been An Interesting Month --- Lots of Differences and Lots of Similarities ...

I last posted a blog here on April 15th - tax day or almost tax day. A lot has changed and a lot remains the same. In the changed category there are now only eight teams left in this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs. In the same category, the Capitals are again/still locked in an intense battle to stay alive in their quest for the team's first ever Championship playing very good and very tight hockey against a favored opponent. When I last posted the Caps - Bruins round 1 playoff series was tied at one game a piece and I really had no idea how I would end up remembering the 2011-2012 Capitals. Today, the Caps are tied 2 games a piece in their second round playoff battle with the New York Rangers; and I definitely know how I'll remember this season, regardless of how the rest of it plays out. I will remember the 2011-2012 Capitals as a gritty, hard working never say die team with character. I will remember them as a team who has been able to match stride for stride two other gritty, hard working character never say die teams in this years playoffs - the Boston Bruins and the New York Rangers. I was pleasantly surprised when the Caps, "our Capitals" knocked off Boston in Round 1, I mean I knew the Caps were and are a very talented team, and I know they "want it". However, when the Caps failed to close-out the series at home in Game 6, I was worried, Boston is NOT an easy place to play any time, let alone in a game 7. However, thanks to solid games by virtually everyone on the ice, a 0.969 SV% by Braden Holtby, 18 blocked shots by the team's skaters including a game high 5 blocked shots by John Carlson, and an epic game by the third and fourth lines the game ended on a 2-1 overtime wining goal by off season pick-up Joel Ward. Last spring Ward earned an off season "pay day" as an Unrestricted Free Agent signing by the Capitals because of his big game play as a Nashville Predator in the playoffs. This season's playoff performances by Ward are making Capitals GM George McPhee once again look prescient. I'll remember this team as a very gritty, never say die team because of this year's playoffs. So far this season the Capitals have played 11 Playoff Games, only one of them has been decided by more than one goal, the Rangers' 3-1 Game 1 victory at Madison Square Garden on Saturday April 28th. Five of the Capitals 11 playoff games so far have required overtime to determine the winner, including of course the triple overtime marathon game 3 versus the Rangers on Wednesday Evening/Thursday Morning at Verizon Center. A 2-1 victory by the Rangers in a goalie's duel that goes a long way in making sure no one ever thinks that "double headers" at least between the same two teams are ever going to be an idea that catches on in the NHL. Game 3 against the Rangers ran 102:09 (the 14:41 mark of period "6") at which time the Rangers took advantage of a couple of missed assignments and miscues by the Capitals in their own end that enabled Ranger sniper Marian Gaborik to put the game ending goal behind Holtby. The stat sheet from that game is pretty mind boggling to look at; both teams combined for 81 blocked shots (40 for the Capitals, 41 for the Rangers)and that's just one example of "playoff hockey" that can be found Holtby stopped 47 of 49 shots on goal for a 0.959 SV% while Lundquist stopped 45 0f 46 (0.978 SV%). On the Rangers Brian Boyle had 9 hits and 2 blocked shots, one of which he stopped with his face. After taking the puck to his face, Boyle still returned to the game to win a few more of the 17 faceoff draws he won (Boyle was 17 of 31 for a 55% face off win percentage. On the Capitals side of the ice Ovechkin also had 9 hits, though the Caps team leader in that department was Matt Hendricks with 11 hits. Hendricks' numbers balanced Boyle's nicely, in addition to his 11 hits, Hendy was 71% in the face off circle winning 12 of 17 draws and he also had two blocked shots though none with his face, at least not from my viewing angle. Yesterday's Capitals - Rangers game 4 was another tightly played game, though the Capitals clearly played their best period of hockey so far in the playoffs in yesterday's first period and the Rangers were on their heels for most of that period. In any case before the second period was over the Rangers had come back and we Caps fans again found ourselves watching a tightly played third period in a game which could have gone "either way." Both teams pretty much had their "A Game" out there except for minor faux paux' and when a team made a mistake, they pretty much paid for it. The good news for us Caps Fans is that our team is skating stride for stride with the opponents and not shrinking from any on ice battles. After yesterday's 3-2 win, the Caps find themselves again in a best of three games contest to see if they will continue their quest. The other good news is there are no doubts being cast about the team's stars' abilities in these playoffs and the entire team seems committed to each other and to winning. Look at the goal scorers so far in this years playoffs and you see familiar names; listen to the pundits and you hear some familiar names being used in unfamiliar (at least for the MSM)contexts such as Semin & "great two way play", etc. The bad news is none of their opponents are going to "mis-underestimate" them. The Rangers are also "playing for keeps" so the only thing for sure about the rest of this current series is we will continue to get to watch some excellent hockey, playoff hockey, Hunter Hockey. Next up, the Rangers at Madison Square Garden, tomorrow evening. LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Capitals 4 - Blue Jackets 2 after Capitals 3 - Sabres 1; Nice Weekend Signaling The Return of the Caps To NHL Relevance

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Okay, here we go C-A-P-S! I've never made any pretense that my hockey musings are anything but a fan blogging about his own thoughts and passions here at Mark's Musings on Blogger. So it's probably no wonder to other #Caps fans as to why my blog posts have fallen off markedly this season. Between a busier "day to day" life and the fact there really hasn't been a lot of Caps hockey thoughts that have been pleasurable to muse about for a while, I just haven't felt too enthusiastic about blogging much. That is until recently, lie the past week. However, I decided to as they say "keep my powder dry" until there was more evidence to point to the start of a recovery to where they should be.

Over their last 10 games the Capitals have been playing 0.650 hockey with a 6-3-1 record; over the past 5 games the Capitals are 3-1-1 and are also 0.650. Maybe more importantly during the month of December the Capitals are 3-3-1 or 0.550 on the road, as opposed to their road record this season through November of 4-6-0 (0.400). For the Capitals to definitely make the playoffs regardless of whether or not they win the Southeast Division, I believe they need to finish the season with 95 points and that means they need to win 53 more points in their remaining 45 games, that's 0.589 hockey. Given they have 23 more road games and 22 more home games this season, it's very important the Caps continue to play 0.500 or better on the road while also keeping Verizon Center one of the toughest buildings in the NHL to get a point on the road for their opponents. So far this season the Caps are 0.710 at Verizon Center so it's not unreasonable to continue to believe they will be at least 0.650 at home. Playing at least 0.650 hockey at home the rest of the way gets the Caps 29 of the needed 53 points. To get those additional need 24 points, the Caps need to play 0.522 hockey or better in their remaining 23 road games. The past two weeks the Capitals have proven themselves more than able to "make the grade" the rest of the season. They and the Winnipeg Jets also got the best records in their Division (6-3-1) over the last 10 games., and they are showing themselves as capable of confident play, resilience and being willing to work hard to win. This is the team we Caps fans have been looking for since the beginning of November, and I for one am quite glad we are seeing them now, before it's too late to make the playoffs.

More evidence that this is the Caps team I've been looking for and was expecting this season can be seen in the performances of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin, and Roman Hamrlik these past two weeks. While Backstrom, Dennis Wideman, John Carlson, Jason Chimera, Brooks Laich and Karl Alzner have all generally been playing at levels most of us Caps fans expected to see throughout the majority of the season, the productivity and effectiveness of Ovi, Semin and Hammer has until these past two weeks been less than justifiably expected. However in these last two weeks we've seen our Captain return to form and score 6 goals and 3 assists while going +5 in the 6 games played since December 18th. Alexander Semin has also had a run that fantasy hockey players with him on their rosters are happy about with 4 goals, 3 assists and +5 over the same six game stretch; while "the Hammer" has notched 3 assists, gone +6 and over the past three games been one of, if not the best, Caps penalty killer. Additionally he's shown that when necessary he can still find a way to find 1/4 to 1/2 of the step he may have lost over his 18 NHL season career when it comes time to join the rush. So while the Caps aren't "out of the woods yet" - this morning they arose to the New Year finding themselves in 9th place in the Eastern Conference and still just barely on the "back side" of the bubble - they are showing real signs of life and they seem to now be starting to perform with more comfort and ease after having adjusted to the changes made by Coach Dale Hunter. There have been two unanticipated bright spots so far this season too that should continue to help the Capitals the rest of the way: Marcus Johannson and Dmitri Orlov and it is nice to see Jay Beagle back on the ice as well.

All this means I am once again looking forward to attending home games at Verizon Center and watching road games on CSN HD. It also means I'll be there when the Caps faceoff on Tuesday evening when the Caps take on the Calgary Flames.

LETS GO CAPS!!!

Establishing A Baseline For The Start Of The Dale Hunter Era Which Is Tomorrow Night

Tomorrow night is when I think we'll see the real start of the "Dale Hunter Era" for the Washington Capitals. Tomorrow's game against the Philadelphia Flyers comes as the first game since Dale Hunter took over as coach of the Capitals that they have had a couple of good practices in a row between home games. It will be the first time we'll get to see a Hunter coached Capitals team that may have had adjustments made that take more than an hour to practice. It also will be a game that is against a team that was a rival to the Capitals teams that Hunter played on. So we have an important game against a big rival at home after the Caps have had time to practice a few things and should be well rest. Thus the beginning of the "Dale Hunter Era" says me. mark it on the hockey calendars everywhere December 12, 2011.

So let's take a look and baseline the NHL on this day, the day before the Hunter era begins - December 11, 2011. The Washington Capitals are in second place in the Southeast Division; eighth place in the Eastern Conference; and seventeenth place in the league as we await the dawn of the Dale Hunter Era. How did the Capitals get here you might ask, we could debate the points and issues leading up to Bruce Boudreau's replacement till the cows come home and nothing we'd say really matters. We don't need to talk about or debate those things the only thing we need to do is to baseline where the Capitals are and where the teams that matter to them are around them as regards the NHL standings as of today. That way come April 7, 2012 the last day of the Caps' 2011-2012 regular season we'll be able to judge how far they've come from where they sunk to on November 28, 2011. In this week's NHL power rankings the Capitals rank a lowly 16th - the lowest you can be and still be in the rankings but hey at least over the last 10 games the Capitals are now 5-5-0 and playing 0.500 hockey, the comment in the rankings voices the question all of Cap probably shares with me - "Have they turned the corner?" We'll see, we'll see as we measure the progress against the current baseline.

So where do things stand today with the teams that matter to the Capitals?

The first team that matters to the Capitals this season is the Florida Panthers. Formerly the lowly Florida Panthers and now the Southeast Division leading Florida Panthers. The Panthers had been historically one of, if not the worst, teams in the NHL for the past decade. They haven't reached the playoffs since 2000, and haven't won a playoff game since 1997. They haven't even finished higher than third in the Southeast Division since the 2000-01 season. But thanks to a drastic overhaul by GM Dale Tallon, the Panthers have quickly emerged as one of the better and more exciting teams to watch in the League. Today they sit atop the Southeast Division with 37 points, third in the Eastern Conference and tenth in the League. In this week's power ranking the Panthers also rank tenth despite having a record in their last ten outings of just 5-3-2 (0.600 hockey). So far this season the Panthers have proven to me they are real, they have a respectable positive goal differential of +5 and they've played 0.616 hockey over 30 games; 0.667 over 12 home games and 0.556 over 18 away games. These guys are for real. That's really all that matters to us Capitals fans, that and the fact the Capitals really, really should work really hard to NOT loose any more "four point games" to the Panthers. Right now the Capitals are two games ahead of the Capitals and have played 0.554 over the 28 games the Caps have played this season. The Panthers are on track to finish the season with between 94 and 105 points. To catch and pass the Panthers I estimate the Capitals will need to ratchet up their own "game" ~20% and play 0.657 hockey to finish with 102 points; that's a pretty big delta but it could be achievable if the Capitals find their stride now and have a good "run/streak" between now and February 28th. It's also interesting to note that while the Caps and Panthers will face each other three times between now and March 1st, all three of those meetings occur in the month of February and with any luck for we Caps fans will be the most epic and important meetings between the two teams in at least a decade.

The next team that matters to the Capitals is the Eastern Conference lading Philadelphia Flyers - the same Flyers who the Capitals will face off against tomorrow night. If the season ended today, the Capitals would find themselves in the first round of the playoffs facing the Flyers. Over 28 games the Flyers have been playing 0.696 hockey and are on track to finish the season with between 108 and 120 points this regular season. The Flyers are 7-3-0 in their last ten outings and on a 5 game winning streak and they are doing it in spite of average goaltending from their net-minders (2.9 GAA last ten games), and a final and yet is they have a positive goal differential of +20 over 28 games to date (101 GF - 3.607 GF/Game and 81 GA - 2.893 GA/Game). Making up any of the four (4) full games the Flyers are ahead of the Capitals even over the 54 games remaining between now and April looks to be a daunting task. However tomorrow's match up is a four point game in that challenge and all the more reason to look at the game and increase it's importance in the Capitals minds.

The Boston Bruins who are now in first place in the Northeast Division and second place in the Eastern Conference are important to the Capitals. Between now and the end of the season the Caps still have all four of their match ups with the Bruins remaining and if they can manage to pass Florida, they will likely be battling the Bruins for the second seed in the opening round of the playoffs. The Bruins have played 0.661 hockey so far this season and have a whopping and league leading +35 goal differential. The Bruins are on pace to finish the regular season with between 102 and 111 points so it's very likely the Caps will need the Bruins to filter some in order to pass them in the standings even if the Caps can finish with 102 or 103 points. The Bruins are currently ranked atop this week's NHL power rankings.

The fourth place New York Rangers are another team, that even if the Caps have turned things around will still matter and come into play for the Caps this season. the Rangers have played 0.704 hockey over 27 games this season. They are as strong or stronger a team as either the Bruins or the Flyers and have a team goal differential of +23 and a 7-3-0 record in their last 10 games including a 6-1 blowout win over the Florida Panthers in their last outing. The "Rags" are on track to finish the regular season with between 106 and 118 points. They are currently ranked third in the NHL's power rankings.

The fifth place Pittsburgh Penguins are the next team that are highly relevant to the Capitals this season. The Penguins have played 0.633 hockey over thirty games this season despite Sidney Crosby's injury issues which unfortunately for hockey fans everywhere continue with no foreseeable end in sight. The Penguins have a +19 differential and 96 and 106 points. If the Caps have indeed turned things around and can finish with 102 points when they head into the playoffs there is a fair chance their road to Lord Stanley's Promised Land for the Capitals could well once again be through Pittsburgh.

What about the other guys in the East who could make the playoffs you might ask: Toronto, Buffalo, New Jersey, Montreal and Winnipeg.

Well Toronto at 5-4-1 in their last ten games and 13th in this week's NHL Power Rankings looks to be the real deal and could very easily finish the season as high as in 5th place and as low as 7th place with between 88 and 98 points for the season. In other words the Maple Leafs could very easily be the Capitals opponent in the first round of the playoffs, if the Capitals turn things around find a way to either win the Southeast or finish in fourth in the Conference.

The Buffalo Sabres are ranked 15th in this week's NHL Power Rankings, have played 0.552 hockey through 29 games, and have an even team goal differential to date. The Sabres are 3-5-2 in their last ten games and have a less than 0.500 record at home so far this season, while playing 0.727 hockey on the road. This team is an enigma to me but will likely remain battling Toronto, Montreal, Winnipeg, and Ottawa "on the bubble" assuming the Capitals can move forward on their current path and get off the bubble themselves. If that happens the Capitals likely won't be seeing anyone who finishes seventh or eighth in the Eastern Conference before the Conference finals, if at all.

So the as far as turning things around in the "Dale Hunter Era" the Florida Panthers may well have caught the spirit of things when they were billing the game between the Panthers and the Capitals as a battle for first place in the division and an important bout between the two.

So next up the Flyers at Verizon Center Tuesday Night - Be There or Be Square.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Penguins 2 - Caps 1; Another No Point Night But ...

Okay let's get this out of the way early, the Caps and the Penguins met tonight at Verizon Center and the Penguins beat the Capitals 2-1. The Caps are now 2-7-1 in their last 10 games. That's not good and not what the Caps organization or we Caps fans want or expect from them this season. There's no ifs ands or buts about it things need to get fixed and the sooner the better.

Okay that out of the way, lets admit even though the Caps got outshot 35-17 and out attempted 69 - 42, the game could just as easily, and some (self included) would argue, should have finished regulation in a 3-3 tie. The Caps basically "missed" two wide open nets and penguins missed one. Had those plays been "properly" finished when the third period ends the score is 3-3 instead of 2-1. That said it's hockey, you know that game of inches stuff, and instead you have a no point night for Washington. Also on the bright side, the Caps have found their defense again and in the last two games Tomas Vokoun has delivered a SV% that we expect from a top tier number one goaltender in the NHL. Tonight his SV% was 0.943 - he stopped everything he should have and a few that might have gotten by a lesser goaltender, so you can't blame the Caps goalie for this lack of points. The two missed open nets, well Aex Ovechkin might have only had one SOG tonight but he was part of setting those two plays up. With 19:22 TOI, Ovechkin also led all Caps forwards in TOI and did so with an average shift length of 00:55 but didn't have any really long shifts except for one in third period that I saw. Ovie also led the Caps in hits with 10, all but one of which were good, solid hits that were appropriately timed and without putting him out of position, on one hit Evgeni Malkin got the better of the exchange, but let's all understand that that battle/competition has been going on for at least half of Ovie and Geno's lives.

The defense looked pretty solid, except for the second Pittsburgh goal, Chris Kunitz's game winner, where John Erskine tripped and fell and that sort of stuff can happen. Brooks Laich was a beast in the faceoff circle tonight with a win % against 67% (14 wins 7 losses) many of which came against Sidney Crosby. Laich has had some good games so far this season, but this might have been his best yet. Alexander Semin drew one penalty and got none. His feet were moving all night from what I saw and he was working hard. Had he not missed on a wide open net (one of two by the Caps) he'd have a goal to go with his 1 takeaway and 2 blocked shots.

Of the blue liners I felt Dennis Wideman, John Carlson, Dmitri Orlov and Karl Alzner all had solid outings. John Erskine, everyone trips now and then and even though it resulted in a goal, I'll gladly overlook that misstep to have a guy in the lineup who within the traditions of the game, holds Arron Asham accountable for his "go to sleep" celebration from the last time these two teams met when he knocked out Jay Beagle. Jeff Schultz what can I say, 21 shifts, 16:14 TOI, -1, 1 attempt blocked, 1 miss shot, 1 takeaways, 1 blocked shot, 2 takeaways saw them all including the one of the two takeaways that might have saved a goal. The two hits Schultz is credited with, I truly didn't see them and if I did they didn't seem like hits to me and certainly are not memorable. Let's give credit where credit is due, Schultz is one of the most positionally sound defensemen I've seen play ove rthe past three seasons in the NHL and he has a heckuva "active stick". Further, I know any guy who is at the NHL level, is 6'6" 230#, played his major junior hockey in the Western Hockey League for a team named "The Calgary Hitmen" and who represented his nation in the World juniors has to know how to execute a killer body check and "blow somebody up." he just has to. However in Schultz's five NHL seasons I don't know of one time during his 340 NHL games played that he's done it. Finally it seems to me that he's not being properly respected and he's certainly not in any way feared by opposing forwards these days. Maybe just maybe just a couple of times, he ought to risk not being exactly in position and "blow somebody up", not so we Caps fans know he can do it, but just so the guys who matter in his world - forwards on opposing teams - think twice before tring to skate through him. Now of course if somebody out there can show me a youtube clip of "Sarge" doing that i guess I'll be the one eating some crow around here.

Forwards, the forecheck was going, the Caps won 69% of the faceoffs Laich 67% and pretty solid as the guy required to shutdown Crosby; Backstrom won 88% of his faceoffs; even Marcus Johanson won 4 of the 9 draws he took. The problem pretty straightforward, the Caps only attempted 42 shots on goal and only 17 got through. Against a solid, actually very good, goaltender like Marc-Andre Fleury, unless he's having an anomalously bad night he's stopping 0.900+ of the shots he sees and unless your team's goaltender pitches a shutout, your probably not going to win. The story tonight is pretty much just that.

So it looks like Tomas Vokoun has found his goaltending Mojo again and has his groove back. It seems to me like the Caps re-found their "team defense" allowing just 2 goals in each of the last two games. Now they just need to get their offensive mojo back, a task clearly easier said then done, and we all will likely be happier with the results of the hockey games.

Next up the Ottawa Senators here at Verizon Center.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

My Thoughts Looking Ahead to Next Season Now The Roster is Shaping Up ...

So there is no shortage of posts on the net today about development camp - I'll stop by tomorrow - haven't done so yet but can't wait... and there's a fair amount of chatter or at least was before the dust settled about Jeff Schultz's qualifying offer status but not about what things are looking like thinking ahead to next season - at least today on "blogdom" so I'll contribute things there. But first if you haven't seen it go here and look at WaPo's blog and Tariq's Q&A with Capital great Dale Hunter - it seems pretty cool to me.

One other thing - Caps Fans, especially those 2,000 or so of you now on the season ticket waiting list, mark your calenders for the Thanksgiving Roadtrip to Montreal - that's right - Montreal -
The Washington Capitals will play the Montreal Canadiens on November 28, 2009. This is the much-rumored game to be played inside Montreal's Olympic Stadium in front of 60,000 fans. Whether or not the kinks are worked out to make that happen, Alex Ovechkin is sure to make the highlight reels as in the past two seasons he's had his four-goal game and added yet another classic goal to his ever-growing resume against the Habs. Should be a real "kickin' good time. If you like that road trip another good game for a roadtrip will be to South Florida in February when the Calgary Flames meet the Florida Panthers on February 5, 2010. It's not a Caps game but it'll be when former Cat Jay Bouwmeester comes back to South Florida and the geographic area that he claimed doesn't hold enough hockey passion for him to re-sign there. You would think Bouwmeester would be booed loudly every time he touches the puck.

With that out of the way here's how I think things look for the Caps on their roster and the start of the season - what say you fellow Internet savvy hockey fans? Here's the news on the wires yesterday without the attending confusion and drama: The Washington Capitals have signed defenseman Shaone Morrisonn and Jeff Schultz as well as forwards Eric Fehr, Chris Bourque and Kyle Wilson to one-year contracts and forward Steve Pinizzotto to a two year-contract.

So as of today the Caps have the following players signed for the 2009/2010 season; salary & bonus (not their cap hit) listed as is the last year of their current contract to the Capitals:

Forwards: POS AGE SALARY Last Year of Current Contract

Ovechkin, Alexander L 23 9.000 2022
Nylander, Michael C 36 5.500 2011
Semin, Alexander L 25 4.200 2010
Knuble, Mike R 36 2.800 2011
Clark, Chris R 33 2.650 2011
Backstrom, Nicklas C 21 2.500 2010
Laich, Brooks C 26 2.100 2011
Morrison, Brendan C 33 1.500 2010
Bradley, Matt R 31 1.000 2011
Fehr, Eric R 23 0.772 2010
Gordon, Boyd R 25 0.761 2010
Fleischmann, Tomas C 25 0.725 2010
Steckel, David L 27 0.725 2010
Osala, Oskar L 21 0.850 2011
Beagle, Jay R 23 0.875 2010
Gordon, Andrew R 23 0.660 2010
Bourque, Chris C 23 0.578 2010
Aucoin, Keith R 30 0.500 2010
Laing, Quintin L 30 0.500 2010
Pinizzotto, Steve R 25 TBA 2011 (Note Last Season "Pinner" made $615K)

Defense:
Green, Mike D 23 5.000 2012
Poti, Tom D 32 3.500 2011
Pothier, Brian D 32 2.500 2010
Morrisonn, Shaone D 26 1.975 2010
Erskine, John D 29 1.250 2011
Schultz, Jeff D 23 0.682 2010
Alzner, Karl D 20 1.675 2011
Sloan, Tyler D 28 0.640 2010
Collins, Sean D 25 0.675 2011
Carlson, John D 19 0.846 2012

Goaltenders
Theodore, Jose G 32 4.500 2010
Varlamov, Simeon G 21 0.850 2011
Neuvirth, Michal G 21 0.850 2010
Holtby, Braden G 20 0.683 2012

In Arbitration:
Jurcina, Milan D 26 Salary Last Season: 0.912

With that roster here's my current forecast for the opening night lineup:

Lines/Forwards:
1) Ovechkin - Backstrom - Knuble
2) Semin - Morrison - Laich
3) Fleischmann - Nylander - Clark
4) Gordon - Steckel - Bradley


Reserves: Fehr (start Season on IR then he will transition to a regular spot rotating into the lineup with all but the top six forwards unless one of them is injured or "in a slump"), Bourque, Osala, Beagle, Aucoin


Defense:
Green - Morrisonn
Poti - Schultz
Pothier - Erskine


Reserves: Jurcina ****, Alzner, Carlson, and Sloan.


Goaltenders:Theodore, Varlamov
Reserve/Hershey: Neuvirth, Holtby


Notes:

**** Eric Fehr will not be ready at the start of the season so look for Chris Clark and Matt Bradley to move up a line while Chris Bourque, Oskar Osala and Jay
Beagle all get some NHL playing time and try on Caps sweaters. After Fehr recovers from his shoulder surgery then look for him to routinely rotate into a regular position on the roster with all but the top six forwards unless one of them are hurt or in a prolonged slump.


**** Milan Jurcina is the only Capital who requested arbitration, given he was second on the team in hits (behind Ovechkin) and was a defensive leader in blocked shots I believe he'll return this coming season. However, if the arbitrator awards him much more than his qualifying offer the Caps my now have to let him walk away from the team given their salary cap position. Assuming that doesn't happen look for Jurcina to be paired with Tom Poti, when he's in the lineup. Also if necessary and if Jurcina starts the season off playing like he did when he played well in the playoffs both he and Karl Alzner can pretty much pair with anybody else, except possibly John Erskine, when they adjust their styles appropriately so I look for both them to get a fair amount of playing time this coming season. I look for Carlson to get at least a try or two up in DC when somebody is hurt and to start the season off in Hershey. After playing ~40 minutes a night at the tail end of the regular season in Juniors and playing well for Hershey in the Calder Cup playoffs, there's little to be gained in the way of development if he doesn't move up and he's clearly shown he's able to play at least at the AHL level so there's no reason for a career stop in Charleston, SC at all.

The big question now is do the Capitals have enough horsepower to significantly improve on last season's performance. To significantly improve they probably have to advance through the playoffs to the finals and at least compete for Lord Stanley's Cup. That is a tough, tough challenge - winning the Stanley Cup may well be the hardest thing for a professional team to do in sports given, the length of the regular season, the length of the playoffs, the pace and "physicality" of professional ice hockey and now in the "modern era" the parity the salary cap creates in the NHL. To automatically assume the changes to the Capitals will all gel is not prudent. Clearly they have a coach and a team core with drive and talent but so too do the league's other top echelon teams. One thing for sure this season will be a fun one to watch, can the Caps improve on their 50 win season of last year sure but 100+ points is a big deal in this league. Can the Caps finish the regular season better positioned than last year for a very, very deep run in the playoffs? We're all waiting for that answer with baited breath. Our anticipation started this week, I wasn't there but it's clear from the pictures here in "Caps Blogdom" yesterday's scrimmage was SRO - Standing Room Only so I know at least a couple hundred other folks are as impatient as me to see what next season will bring.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!