Caps vs. Sabres Look-ahead

It's been crazy busy with the holidays so I haven't "blogged" since December 16th, and while a lot of hockey news has happened as well as Caps good things I've just been too swamped to blog. I have watched all the Caps games and I should get back to normal here this holiday season, I hope. Looking at tonight's game between the SE Division leading Washington Capitals and the Northeast Division leading Buffalo Sabres is real interesting contrast of styles.

The Caps come into the game off a four game road trip followed by three days off where they went 2-2-0 and are 7-3-0 in their last 10 games. The Sabres come into the game following a 3-2 overtime win on Monday evening in Toronto and are 6-3-1 in their last 10 games. This is the third of four regular season meetings between the two Eastern Conference rivals and so far the series is split 1-1-0 and each team has shut out the other on their home ice during their two prior meetings this season. For the Sabres you can slice it and dice it numerous ways but it will come back to what it has 99% of the time this season for them - goal tending. The last game between these two teams on December 9th in Buffalo, Ryan Miller was stupendous and his team managed to score 3 goals - a pretty solid evening for a team that is averaging 2.63 goals for per game so far this season. Of course in the prior meeting on November 25th here in DC Semyon Varlamov was pretty amazing stonewalling all 25 of the Sabre shots on goal to earn a 2-0 shutout.

The keys and key players for each team tonight are, assuming both teams continue to play smart hockey and not take many penalties, something they both have managed to do during the first two meetings this year:

Caps - Keys: 1) Play disciplined hockey and stay out of the sin bin; 2) Traffic, traffic and traffic - the likely Buffalo goaltender will be Ryan Miller, but regardless of whether it's Miller or Patrick Lalime, they are both excellent and for the Caps to keep up their 3.53 goals per game average they'll need at least a couple "dirty/gritty goals" in addition to putting up a fair amount of shots on goal; 3) responsible two way play - a deep, solid backcheck by all the forwards and no bad decisions and foolish odd man breaks allowed by the defense. Key Players: 1) Alex Ovechkin - he needs to play his game but not get ticked when the Sabres come at him like they are likely to do and he will get at least two good scoring chances as well as create a couple for others due to miscues by Tyler Myers, even though in 3 years or so we'll likely be thinking about Myers the way we think about Chris Pronger. 2) Michael Neuvirth - Should "Neuvy" get the nod tonight his play and the team defense in front of him will be key. Even when the Caps play their best defensive hockey, their propensity for high risk - high reward plays usually mean a goaltender is called upon to "come up big" at least once or twice a game. In his few outings this season here in the NHL there are nights where Neuvirth has done so and nights where he has not. The difference tonight could easily be the margin of victory for either team. 3) Centers Nicklas Backstrom David Steckel and Brendan Morrison - tonight the Caps need to control the tempo of the game, to do that you have to have the puck and to do that you have to win faceoffs and you need your best setup men to do exactly that. 'Nuff said as Backy, B-Mo, and Stecks can all do that in spades, tonight they should be hungry to prove they can execute after the 3-0 loss the Sabres handed the Caps in Buffalo.

Sabres - Keys: 1) Shut down the Capitals "Young Guns" + Tomas Fleischmann, the key to victories and their 0.714 points percentage has been their solid defense to maintain any sort of pressure on the Capitals the Sabres who average just 2.63 goals for per game will need to keep the Capitals formidable offense off the board. So far this season the Caps have scored only two goals against the Sabres in 120 minutes so look for some changes and urgency by the Caps, Buffalo's response and adjustments will be key. 2) Pressure Neuvirth and/or Theodore early. The Sabres won't want to play from behind against the Caps, especially with a loud, sold out home crowd rooting the Caps on. They will work hard to score first and take a lead into the locker room at each intermission. The Sabres are a hard working 60 minute opponent and will be so tonight as well. How the Caps respond to their steady intensity and whether the Sabres can be worn down without star Tomas Vanek will be a key tonight. 3) "Physicality" - the Sabres will need to play a hard, physical game and out hit the Caps in order to keep them off balance, disrupt the flow of the Caps as they work to penetrate the Sabres zone, and "turn the play" back around and into the Caps zone. Key Players: 1) Ryan Miller or Patrik Lalime - enough said already on these two. 2) Tim Connolly - the veteran center and scorer hasn't been scoring on pace with prior seasons and with Tomas Vanek out the Sabres really need him to pick up some of the missing scoring, especially if the Caps start to figure Ryan Miller out tonight. 3) Tyler Myers and Henrik Tallinder, the Sabres need these two guys to play very good or great games to continue to keep the Caps forwards "bottled" up.

Wild Cards: For the Caps - Alexander Semin and Mike Green, as always even if the Sabres manage to stymie Ovechkin and Backstrom, if Sasha or Green have a good night either can break a tight game like tonight's is likely to be wide open all on their own as well> For the Sabres - Clark MacArthur - co-leader in goals scored for the Sabres with the ailing Vanek but also -10 on the season.

Prediction: Caps 3 - Sabres 1.

LETS GO CAPS!!!

Looking Ahead to Tonight's Caps-Sabres Game

I won't be at tonight's game as I'll be a Congressman Frank Wolf's Academy Night in Chantilly telling interested prospective students about my Alma Mater the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy. However I should be home in time to see the third period on Comcast SportsNet. The Caps will be working to stay ahead of the NJ Devils in second in the conference standings and will be playing for their 102nd and 103rd standings points for the year. The Buffalo Sabres will be fighting for what is left of their playoff "lives" - the Sabres are currently in 10th place, 6 points and 2 games behind the 8th place NY Rangers (the Sabres have 2 games in hand on the Rangers and 1 game in hand on the 9th place Florida Panthers.)

The Caps are 7-2-1 in their last ten games and have won their last two games. Tonight's game will the second to the last game of this regular season at home for the Capitals, who have been very tough at Verizon Center achieving a home record so far of 28-9-2 for the season. Overall the Caps are 47-23-7 this year and have a very real chance of a 50 win season and a chance to exceed the best record in their history and gather more than 107 points. What concerns their have been about their recent motivations are rooted in what have been slow starts by them in their last several games. However, those concerns have been modulated by their seeming ability to catch themselves and find ways to win.

The Sabres are 4-4-2 in their last ten games and lost their last game 3-2 in overtime in Atlanta against the Thrashers on Wednesday night. On the road this year the Sabres have compiled a 15-17-6 record thus far this season, against the Caps to date they are 1-2 having lost their last two meetings in December on the 26th and 30th. All three games between the Caps and Sabres so far this season have been completed in regulation including a highlight reel game winner by Alex Ovechkin in the third period of the December 26th game for the game winner in a game that ended 3-2. So far this season the Sabres' sharpshooter Thomas Vanek and Caps ace Ovechkin have done well in the series. It seems likely that once again during tonight's game they will be key players to watch. Also key to tonight will be goaltending and it seems likely the starters will be both team's number one goaltenders Ryan Miller and Jose Theodore. So far this season Miller has a 19-10-4 record in 34 games played with a 2.49 GAA and 0.917 SV%. Theodore is now 28-16-5 in 50 starts with a 2.80 GAA and 0.9-2 SV%. Since December 23rd, Theodore is 21-10-4 with a 2.57 GAA and a 0.911 SV%. The other player to watch for the Caps seems to me to be either Tomas Fleischmann or Alexander Semin, both seem due to come alive. Flash's March "drought" has been pretty well chronicled elsewhere and #28 was the only "Young Gun" not to score in the last game against the Islanders.

Assuming both teams show up focused and ready to play hockey this game should be a good one. Here's to hoping the evening ends with our Washington Capitals in possession of victory #48 and point 103 for the season.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!

What's going on elsewhere in the NHL's Eastern Conference?

While Caps fans are waiting through this six day period that ends tomorrow night and the Caps are busy instantiating Coach Bruce Bodreau's system what's going on elsewhere in the league and in particular the Eastern Conference? The good news when you look at the standings is that five days ago when the Caps started this lull in their schedule they were 7 points behind the NY Islanders for the final playoff spot in the division and as of this morning they are only 8 points back. The tough news is that my analysis of what has to happen with regard to the remainder of the Caps schedule hasn't changed - it's a long road to go even though it hasn't gotten much longer. Since my schedule analysis post on Saturday 12/1 the Islanders have lost twice outright (Atlanta 4-0; Boston 3-1) and once in a shootout (Atlanta 4-3 SO). So if the Islanders had won everything they would be 10 points ahead of the Caps and in a tie with three other teams in the Eastern Conference for third - the Caps would be 9 points out of a playoff spot (the Bruins). But instead here's what the Eastern Conference looks like now:


1) Ottawa Senators 37 points
2) Carolina Hurricanes 33 points
3) Philadelphia Flyers 32 points
4) New York Rangers 32 points
5) New Jersey Devils 32 points
6) Boston Bruins 31 points
7) Montréal Canadiens 30 points
8) New York Islanders 28 points
9) Pittsburgh Penguins 28 points
10) Toronto Maple Leafs 28 points
11) Atlanta Thrashers 27 points
12) Tampa Bay Lightning 26 points
13) Buffalo Sabres 25 points
14) Florida Panthers 25 points
15) Washington Capitals 20 points.

What's this all mean - well I had a longer more in depth correlation to the analysis I posted Saturday but the computer basically ate it and lunch break is almost over for me here at ICx Technologies so I'll summarize. The Caps still need to have an awesome remainder of the seasons; perhaps the only team in the Eastern Conference with as hard a road to travel is Buffalo. Washington's four games vs. the Canadiens are the most important, if any games are more important that just wining them all (simple right). The next most important games are those against teams in the Eastern Conference between them and Montreal in the Conference Standings. So until tommarrow - LETS GO CAPS!!!!!!!!!!!