A Look At The Playoff Races - East & West

The race to the playoffs hasn't slowed since I last looked at it, in fact if anything except for the five teams that have clinched playoff berths if anything it has intensified. Also for the three Eastern Conference and Two Western Conference Teams that have clinched playoff berths, things haven't really gotten too sanguine since they are dueling with each other, in a sense, for playoff seeding. Looking at the standings in each conference, their current situation and the finish I'm projecting for them looks as follows.

WESTERN CONFERENCE:

1. SAN JOSE, current 107 points; 8 games remaining; projected finish - 117 points; 1st & President's Trophy Winner.

2. DETROIT, current 107 points; 7 games remaining; projected finish - 114 points; 2nd.

3. CALGARY, current 90 points; 8 games remaining; projected finish - 96 points; 6th.

4. CHICAGO, current 91 points; 9 games remaining; projected finish - 101 points; 4th*.

5. VANCOUVER, current 89 points; 8 games remaining; projected finish - 99 points; 3rd*.

6. COLUMBUS, current 85 points; 8 games remaining; projected finish - 97 points; 5th.

7. EDMONTON, current 81 points; 7 games remaining; projected finish - 89 points; 8th.

8. NASHVILLE, current 80 points; 8 games remaining; projected finish - 90 points; 7th.

9. ANAHEIM, current 80 points; 7 games remaining; projected finish - 88 points; 10th.

10. ST LOUIS, current 79 points; 8 games remaining; projected finish - 89 points; 9th.

11. MINNESOTA, current 78 points; 8 games remaining; projected finish - 86 points; 11th.***

12. DALLAS, current 75 points; 8 games remaining; projected finish - 80 points; 12th.

13. LOS ANGELES, current 72 points; 8 games remaining; projected finish - 78 points; 13th.

14. PHOENIX, current 69 points; 8 games remaining; projected finish - 77 points; 14th.

15. COLORADO, current 64 points; 7 games remaining; projected finish - 68 points; 15th.

NOTES and DISCLAIMERS:

** Vancouver's "3rd place and seed" projection only holds for the first round of the playoffs for the second and beyond Chicago's projected 101 point finish puts them into the third seed.

*** Minnesota's projected 11th place finish is the one point of these projections that could be wildly off; if Nicklas Backstrom becomes a wall and plays really hot in their remaining 8 games they could easily win 6 vice 4 of their remaining 8 games. If that happens The Wild could finish as high as sixth. If that happen I project that the rest of my projections would hold and Edmonton would finish 9th and miss the playoffs.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. BOSTON, 102 points, 9 games remaining; projected finish - 110 points, 1st.

2. WASHINGTON, 99 points, 6 games remaining; projected finish - 107 points, 2nd.***

3. NEW JERSEY, 98 points, 8 games remaining; projected finish - 106 points, 3rd.***

4. PHILADELPHIA, 90 points, 9 games remaining; projected finish - 100 points, 4th.

5. CAROLINA, 89 points, 6 games remaining; projected finish - 97 points, 6th.*

6. PITTSBURGH, 88 points, 7 games remaining; projected finish - 99 points, 5th.*

7. NY RANGERS, 87 points, 7 games remaining; projected finish - 96 points, 7th.*

8. MONTREAL, 85 points, 8 games remaining; projected finish - 91 points, 8th**.

9. FLORIDA, 83 points, 7 games remaining; projected finish - 90 points, 9th**.

10. BUFFALO, 80 points, 8 games remaining; projected finish - 87 points, 11th.**

11. TORONTO, 75 points, 7 games remaining; projected finish - 82 points, 12th.

12. OTTAWA, 74 points, 9 games remaining; projected finish - 88 points, 10th.**

13. ATLANTA, 68 points, 7 games remaining; projected finish - 78 points, 13th.

14. TAMPA BAY, 65 points, 7 games remaining; projected finish - 72 points, 14th.

15. NY ISLANDERS, 58 points, 8 games remaining; projected finish - 66 points, 15th.

NOTES & DISCLAIMERS:

* This grouping is probably the most interesting to Caps fans as their finish will likely determine who the Caps play in the first round of the playoffs. However, conventional wisdom is the Caps will finish in third and I am after a lot of deliberation projecting them to be in second by a point. For my projection methodology see the listing below. It's not all that scientific but it is based on a combination of recent performance and my own "Kentucky Windage." That said, the truth is I regard these three places 5, 6, & 7 in the East to be the most difficult to project. The only thing I think I can say about them is I feel pretty strongly the three places will be occupied by Carolina, Pittsburgh and the Rangers and the biggest wild card in the group is the Rangers. If Lundqvist wins a game or two on his back or the offense kicks it up a notch it's easy to see the Rangers finishing with 3 or 4 more points and in 5th vice 7th. It's also easy to see either Pittsburgh or Carolina needing to rest and or give some wounds time to recover and finishing with a point or even two less than projected, especially if Montreal continues to slide and Florida and Ottawa slow down a little and some heat goes off of them.

** The battle and the "bubble teams" for the Eastern Conference's last playoff spot is seemingly between Florida, Montreal, and Ottawa vice Buffalo. However, once again the wild cards in projecting these races seems to be who will have a hot goaltender. Montreal may or may not be starting off with enough of a lead to hold on. My projection is they do and will. I'm actually rooting for the Panthers and the guy who could put them into the playoffs would be Tomas Vokoun. The real wild card that would come from that outcome is would that be enough to convince Jay Boumeester to consider staying in Flordia instead of bolting as an UFA this summer. On more levels then most, Florida as an organization may have the biggest motivation to make the playoffs, but will that be enough to propel their injury slowed roster to improve their current pace of play (0.450 hockey over the last 10 games to the 0.550+) I project will be required for them to make this years post-season. Ottawa just seems to be starting in too big a hole to make it even though they are the hottest team in the NHL over the past 10 games.

*** I am now projecting Washington to finish 1 point ahead of New Jersey. First and foremost, today Caps fans need to be rooting for, of all teams, Carolina for that to start down the path of happening. If that occurs the Caps will truly have a chance to take advantage of their easier strength of schedule between now and season's end to stay ahead of the Devils. It will also mean the Hurricanes extend their winning streak to six games and the Devils loosing streak extends to four games, so the Devils will be working hard to make sure that doesn't happen. The game is up in Newark at "The Rock" so that makes it even harder for the Canes and it will be an even bigger loss for the Devils. The one thing the 'Canes have going for them is they will be better rest then the Devils who lost in OT last night in Chicago. The main variable in this projection is the fact the Caps finish their season with a three game road swing to make room at Verizon Center for the NCAA Frozen Four. The Caps will also be playing Southeastern Division division foes in games after they will have most likely clinched the Division. If New Jersey were to pick thinks up over the next two or three games and the Caps were to fall more than a point or two behind the Devils at any point over the next three weeks, the basis for this entire projection probably falls apart. The basis is that both teams will be similarly motivated and in a position to fight for the second if not the first position in the Conference. Once that becomes a mathematical unlikelihood, this projection will need to be revisited.

I'll post my thoughts and musings on last night's 5-3 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning later today or tomorrow - I haven't finished editing it and I figured by this time today the blogsphere would be filled with the works of others who do that much better than I. This was something that might actually be additive to what's out there and worthy of your reading and comments.

Until then:

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!