Caps Now 8-2-2 For December and 0.600 On 2014-15 Season; SWEET

Last night in Pittsburgh it was a two point night for our Washington Capitals, it's been a pretty long time since the Capitals had a two point game that they came out on top of in Pittsburgh.  Last night's win in Pittsburgh gave the Capitals an 18-11-6 record and 17 Regulation/Overtime Wins (ROW) in 35 games played.  That's a solid 0.600 on the season to date.

Back on December 6th just three weeks ago I mused about the likely difference between ending up on "the right side" versus the "wrong side" of the bubble both in terms of record and pace/quality of play by the Capitals.  Granted none of the thoughts expressed in my December 6th blog are "rocket science."  However, up to that point in time the 2014-15 edition of the Washington Capitals had not played consistently in a manner that exhibited the play I mused about.  However, now 22 days later I can safely point to the past ten (10) games as an extended stretch where the Caps entire roster has pretty much all elevated their compete level and been rewarded with 16 standings points and increased confidence in both their own individual skills and abilities as well as the system they are now playing.

Last night's game was from my perspective the best game of hockey I've seen the Capitals play in over at least 15 months.  The Caps played a team game, with skill, and beat a very good team, whose goaltender was on his game.  Think about it, when was the last time the Caps really did that and you weren't surprised if not shocked?  For me it's pretty much been since the end of the 2011-12 season that I've felt this solidly confident in the Capital's abilities to play through adversity, play hard on the puck and 110%, 200 foot hockey and not get frustrated by an NHL goalie on his game or otherwise do something that gave the opposing team a real opening to beat them with.  I've got to say, it's a really good feeling for a fanboy like me.  Also looking back at my December 6th musing, I also want to say that every player on the list I did, save one are all more valuable to the team and contributory to it's ability to win then I felt they were three weeks ago.  The one player whose gone "down" in the rating system I used back on December 6th being Jason Chimera, but I'm guessing if you read this blog you probably already knew that.

The last game of December for the Capitals is tomorrow in Uniondale against the New York Islanders, the Isles are in second place in the Metropolitan Division and Third in the Eastern Conference with 47 points in 35 games.  Tomorrow's game on the Island will likely be very similar to last night's game in Pittsburgh, the Caps will face a good team anchored by a couple very fast skilled forwards and a very solid goaltender.  To win against the Islanders they'll have to play a similar "heavy" game.  That is apparently the new vernacular for a physical, tightly contested game of hockey as per yesterday's NBCsn  team that called the Caps/Pens game.

I'm now quite "bullish" on the Caps, and assuming they play tomorrow's game the same way they did yesterday's contest, I'm looking for a 4 - 2 Caps victory, the four players to ponder in my view are:  Holtby and Halak in goal and Backstrom and Tavares up front.  In the meantime

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Caps Defeat Senators at Home 2-1 Look to Extend Streak at MSG Tonight

Well Caps fans as Barry Trotz noted last evening after the Capitals had a two point night at Verizon Center sometimes you win a game you might not really have deserved to and sometimes you loose a game you clearly did everything to earn two points from and come away empty - that's hockey.  Last night the Caps got two points, primarily on the back of their goaltender Braden Holtby against the Ottawa Senators, tonight they face the Rangers up in Manhattan, to extend their streak I think the recipe will need to continue to include a 0.920+ save percentage from #Holtbeast but it will also likely need to include some additional shooting and scoring across a broader spectrum of the lineup. But let's give credit where credit is due for last night's two point victory - THANK YOU and MERRY CHRISTMAS to BRADEN HOLTBY and FAMILY!

Tonight is the first meeting of this season for the Caps and Rangers - Metropolitan Division foes currently fighting for third place in the tightly contested awkwardly named "Metro."  The Rangers come into the game  looking to extend their current winning streak to seven (7) games and 8-2-0  (0.800) in their last 10 games, to say they are "hot" right now would be understatement at it's finest.  The Caps come in looking to extend their current winning streak to four (4) and are 7-1-2 (0.800) in their last 10 and also playing very solid hockey.  Both team's current good fortune is a function of solid goaltending, 200 foot hockey, and a balanced offense led by dynamic left wings and solid centermen. The Rangers have given up just 17 goals against whilst scoring 33 goals for in their last ten outings, while the Capitals have given up 27 goals while scoring 34 goals.  During their last ten games Rangers Goalie Cam Talbot has two (2) shutouts and Henrik Lundquist has one "perfect game." While over here in "Capitals Land" Braden Holtby has had one shutout and three games where he allowed just a single opponents goal.  Goal scoring for the Rangers is led by dynamic wing Rick Nash with 20 goals and 13 assists in 31 games played, seven other Rangers have 5 or more tallies so far this season as well.  Our Capitals have goal scoring led as usual by Alex Ovechkin with  15 goals and 12 assists though the points leader on the team is his line-mate Nicklas Backstrom with 11 goals and 25 assists; also with 10 goals are Joel Ward and Troy Brouwer.  Additionally the Caps have three other players with 5 or more goals and three others with four goals so far this season. 

Whats that all mean?  I think it means tonight's first game of the season between these two division rivals is going to be a knock down, drag out battle royale and a heckuva game to watch.  I'm not making any sort of scientific analysis based prognostication, as I've said occasionally in the past I'm a Capitals fan through and through so I'm calling this one for the Caps and looking for a breakout night for Capital's stars and grinders alike.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Last Night - The Perfect Illustration of Why I Think They Should ALL Be Three Point Games....

If you understand the title of this blog, and if you are here reading my musings you probably do, you know exactly what the title referees to.  If you don't well here it is, in the NHL during the regular season some games count for two points and some games count for three points in the standings, and well that just , well ... makes no sense at all.  Until a couple of years ago every game counted for two points in the standings, win get two points, tie each team gets one point.  But hey someone decided , we hockey fans hated ties and in every game there had to be a winner and a loser, so the solution was ... now get this, if a game ends in regulation in a tie, each team still splits the two original points, but then gets to play first a 5:00 overtime at 4 on 4 and if that doesn't result in a winner they do a shootout - basically the NHL's version of a layup completion for an extra point and the one who wins that is the "winner" of that game, with the one who loses it getting the consolation prize - keeping the "looser" point they already won. And just to make sure they make it clear how dumb they know we fans think this skills competition to decide the winner of a team sport game is, if at the end of a season two teams are tied in the standings the first "tiebreaker" is the total number of Regulation and 4 on 4 overtime wins in the season.

However this past week in the NHL, especially if you are a Capitals fan, the ludicrousity of the current way things are done couldn't be driven home to you more with an 8# sledgehammer. First our Capitals take part in and loose a 20 round shootout in Florida, now remember one of the so called excuses for the shootout vice a longer 4 on 4 OT or following the 4 on 4 with a 3 on 3 is well it takes too long.  So that really short 20 round shootout, that was the way to go right? And now we had last night, the Caps are "on the bubble" battling the NY Rangers for third in the Division, they basically owned their opponent last night, the New Jersey Devils, especially for the last 40:00 of the game beating them in a 4-0 shutout.  For their efforts they were awarded two standings points and New Jersey got no points.  That makes sense right?  Sure until you look at the game that was played between the Rangers and the Hurricanes last night in Raleigh, NC.  There while the Rangers certainly did enough to earn a win, it too them a 3 round shoot out to get is so they too got two points last night just like the Capitals.  My point is had all games been worth the same weight in the standings the Capitals would have edged one point further in front of the Rangers last night.  In fact if a Regulation win was worth three points while the Metropolitan Division Standings would be the same then the Capitals would have 50 standings points to the Rangers 47  and we wouldn't need to keep track of "ROW" at all. 

 

I could talk about last night's game in Newark more but it's been all over the web and NHLN all day so far.  Here's five quick hit take away points from the game and the coverage: 

1) Braden Holtby played very well and earned his shutout - 21 saves were required of him and several were very difficult to make.

2) Ovechkin's goal was one of those highlight reel Ovi goals we will see many times more and one of his best moves ever.

3) Nicklas Backstrom is an awesome hockey player too and it takes Ovi doing something like 2) above to cast even a small amount of shade on that fact from time to time.

4) This Mike Green guy ... really good at hockey as well, probably time for the Caps to figure out how to extend/resign him.

5)  The entire Capitals team is now wholly invested in the new system under Barry Trotz and basically getting better every game they play at executing it.

But in the end this is just hockey not world peace we are talking about here so moving on to my next hockey musing, "How 'Bout dem Caps! anyways?" Playing 0.700 hockey in their last ten games and looking more and more like a very solid team every game they play.  Next up are the Ottawa Senators, who are solidly on the bubble right now so that won't be an easy game, tomorrow night at DC's Verizon Center.  Then on Tuesday night it's a trip up to Madison Square Garden to face those very same NY Rangers on Manhattan.  Then after Christmas they face the Penguins in Pittsburgh on the 27th and the Islanders in Uniondale on the 29th before coming home for the Winter Classic on New Year's day here in DC.  And I thought I had a busy holiday season planned, wheh!

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Is the Trend Really Our Friend? Are the 2014-15 Capitals Really Harder to Play Against Than the 2013-14 model was?

Good Evening Capitals fans and a fine late, late fall evening it is since this evening the Capitals find themselves playing 0.581 hockey for the NHL Regular season to date and once again "on the right side of the bubble.:  Additionally as one of my mentors used to say, "the trend is our friend," and with a record of 6-2-2 (0.700) in their last 10 games and 5-0-2 in their last 7 games the trend is indeed our friend. 

That said, not to be a buzzkill, it is worth noting that so far this season through 31 games the Caps have 36 points and a record of 15-10-6 with 14 ROW while last year at this point (31 games played) they had 36 points and were 17-12-2 with just 10 ROW.  You'll remember last year  when the end of the regular season came along the Capitals all took off their skates and immediately put on their golf shoes.  That's why it is important that two things we all seem to feel right now are true: 1) the trend is indeed our friend and the Capitals can sustain that trend for the remaining 3 1/2 months in this regular season; and 2) the Capitals of 2014-15 are a harder team to play against than the Capitals of 2013 - 14.  So let's take a look and see if the data and facts support those two anecdotal "feelings."

First are they harder to play against?  and Is the trend indeed our friend? Facts/data - through 31 games the Caps this season have earned a standings point in 21 games (67.7%) while last season they had done so in only (61.3%).  This season they have ROW in 45.2 % of their games while last season at this point it was an abysmal ~30%.  By the ~tens last season games 20 - 31 the Capitals went 6-4-1 with 4 ROW (0.650) ; this season's games 20 - 31 the Caps are 6-2-3 (0.750) with 6 ROW.  Seems like the trend is more our friend right now than last season and the difference in ROW is some indication of the results of being harder to play against - the real driver of that is their overall improvement in Corsi For and Corsi Against, IMO as well.  Team Goal Differential to date is +6, at the end of 8 games last season the Caps team goal differential was -5, that's a huge difference that says the Caps are tougher "on the puck" now then last season, IMO.  So when you look at both the basic as well as the "fancy stats" and then also consider the roster's individual stats  so the Caps have balanced scoring more than they've had in a long time, and it's obvious the offense is starting in the defensive zone with the scoring being well supported by the entire Blue Line Corps, the answers are indeed.  Yes the Caps are a much harder team to play against this season than last, and Yes, the trend is our friend. 

BUT fellow Caps fans don't celebrate quite yet, from what I can tell, the Capitals aren't even close to getting off the bubble and being solidly a playoff team quite yet and they have to keep up their current play of 0.700 for another months to be so, They are solidly in the middle of the "bubble pack" right now and we are only 37.8% through the regular season right now. If you look at the league standings the  Caps are in 8th place in the Eastern Conference: 1/2 game behind the Panthers who are in 7th; 2 games behind the 6th place Maple Leafs, 2 games behind the 5th place Canadians, 2 1/2 games behind the fourth place Red Wings, and three games behind the third place Islanders.  The , Habs, Wings  and Islanders all have 6 more points that the Capitals but really all nine teams from the third place Islanders through the 11th place Senators are within a 10 point spread with 60+% of the regular season still to play.  Even the Second place Lighting and First Place Penguins are theoretically within striking distance for the Caps, Panthers, Bruins and Rangers (10th place). However the reality is Pittsburgh has played awesomely though all sorts of adversity this season and (goal differential +28, overall 0.742 on the season through 31 games played) and the Lightning have been pretty solid across the board as well (goal differential +23, 0.652 on the season through 33 games played).  However if the Capitals can finish out December (13 games total) with at least 19 of the 26 available points, 0.731, which is possible given they have 12 of those 19 points so far and have the opportunity to capture as many as 10 more, so "all" they need to do is "just" keep playing 0.725+ hockey.  Then for the Caps to likely get off the bubble "on the right side" as quickly as possible, they continue playing that style, effort and getting those results through, at least their game on January 16th against the Predators in Smashville, (another 8 games) so they have at least another 11 points and that would give them a total of 54+ points through 44 games and give them a 0.614 record overall on the season.  Then if the Caps can keep that up they would end the season with what I consider a magic number ... 100 points and be solidly on the right side of the bubble and very, very likely NOT need to play the "Wildcard Sweepstakes" to get into the playoffs.

But the quest for all those things starts tomorrow evening in Newark, NJ against those pesky Devils who are always tough for us to play against even though they are 2-6-2 in their last 10 games.  The Devils have a -22 goal differential in 33 games played primarily because they don't score enough goals, they only have 74 goals for (2.24 GFG) so far, as compared to the Capitals' 2.94 GFG so far this season which coincidently is only slightly more than the Devils' GA/G of  2.91.  So, as long as the Caps drive the net as hard tomorrow evening as they did last evening against the Blue Jackets they should come away from Newark with "a two point night."  However, as I said we are talking about the always pesky Devils and that's why they play the games on the ice.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!