Spring Has Sprung and You Know What That Means...

Sorry for the now almost six weeks since my last blogpost fellow musers.  I had some work related travel and a few other distractions with life in the meantime and lets face it, this blog isn't really a priority with me like it was several years ago.  Also I really didn't have all that much to write about
.  At the time of my last blogpost on February 12th, our Washington Capitals were pretty much in the same place, standings-wise as they are now, well on their way to a playoff spot but not a shoe-in by any means.  In the ensuing almost six weeks and 22 games the Capitals have gathered 8 more ROW than they had on 2/12 and an 11-7-0 record (22 more standings points).  That's not as good by any means as the Ottawa Senators who now basically trail the Caps by just 1 game in the Eastern Conference standings (since 2/12 the Senators have been the hottest team in hockey with a blistering 16-2-1 record).  I mention the Senators just to illustrate why I believe the Capitals while on the right track are not shoe-ins for the playoffs.  Six weeks ago did anyone in the Hockey world think the then 10th place (in the Conference) Senators would be in control of their own destiny right now as far as making the playoffs.  I doubt it - at least other than the Senators themselves maybe.

Right now to me it looks like to be sure your team makes the playoffs in the East, they're going to need 98+ points and at least 39 ROW.  Are the Caps on track for that - simply put if they keep playing just under 0.600 hockey between now and tax day, yes; if they backslide to 0.500 they will find themselves in the dogfight for the top spot on the bubble with Boston, Ottawa (can any team keep up the pace they are on - that remains to be seen), and to a lesser degree, Florida if the Panthers stay on their current 0.650 pace or pick it up a little. So here's how I see the Eastern Conference regular season ending.  The current top three teams: Rangers, Canadians, and Lightning will be the top three teams; in the Metropolitan Division I just don't see anyone who is within striking distance (Islanders, Penguins, or our Capitals) playing that much better than 0.600 the rest of the way - the schedules are too tough for all three teams and right now the Islanders are 0.400 in their last 10 games while the Penguins are 0.450.  Additionally all three of the teams chasing the Rangers in the Metropolitan Division are 4.5 - 6 games behind the Rangers and have less than 10 games left in their seasons and even if the Senators basically "win out" they end up with 105 points,  so assuming the Rangers who've been 8-1-1 in their last 10 games regress to 0.500 hockey in their last 11 games of the season and finish with 110 points they still likely win the Division and are one of the top 3 seeds in the Conference. Nope the scoreboard watcher's excitement here in the East is the battles for seeding between the Red Wings, Islanders, Penguins and Capitals; and the battle between Ottawa, Boston and at least for a few more games, Florida for the final available playoff spot in the Conference. 

As far as the battle between the Red Wings, Islanders, Penguins and Capitals for seeding, I'll note that while all three of their rivals have games in hand on the Caps, only the Capitals have a better than 0.500 in their last 10 games.  Additionally in my view while Detroit and the Islanders may have a slightly easier schedule but I subjectively feel the Caps remaining schedule is the toughest of those four while the Penguins is the weakest/easiest.  All that said I don't think it matters that much.  The Conference beyond 1, 2, and 3 is wide open and once the second season starts any of the eight teams that get in after the next three weeks could win the Conference and make it deep to the Stanley Cup finals as far as I can tell.

Out West while Dallas is trying to make it interesting playing to an 8-2-0 record in their last 10 games they basically have to win out in their last 9 games and finish with 98 points to be sure of making the playoffs, maybe they could loose one and finish with 96 if  both Minnesota and Winnipeg somehow choke/tank but given both of those teams are 7-3-0 in their last 10 games the odds of that happening are miniscule, IMO.  It's even doubtful to me that the LA Kings who are now 1 1/2 games behind the Jets and 1 game behind Calgary with 10 games to play get in though it will be a few more games before on can "call that ball." Otherwise it's all just a battle for seeding for 1-3 between Anaheim, Nashville, and Saint Louis and for 4-8 between Chicago, Vancouver, Calgary, Minnesota, Winnipeg *and/or, if they somehow make it, LA.  The only team in that mix NOT playing 0.600+ hockey in their last ten games are the Predators though and they already have 96 points and 36 ROW so they'd finish with 100+ and ~40 ROW even on their current (last 10 games) 0.350 pace.

So Caps fans next up those pesky Devils from Newark on Thursday evening here at Verizon Center and I say....

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!!

How Much Tougher To Play Against Are the '14-'15 Caps than the '13-'14 Version?

Well if you're wondering just how much tougher a team to play against this season's version of the Washington Capitals are than last seasons, I say look no further than one particular column in the NHL Standings.  I'm not a total "fancy stats" guy, in the end I'm really a bottom line kind of guy.  To me to answer the question: "are this season's Washington Capitals Much Tougher a team to beat than last season's model?"  I say the answer is a resounding "YES!" and point to the NHL Standings column "ROW" - Regulation & overtime Wins - last season through all 82 games the Caps tallied a total of twenty eight (28).  This season through fifty five (55) games the Caps now have twenty seven (27), that's why this season the Caps are on pace to total 100+ points and last season they totaled 90 when the season was over.  So if you're "STH" - Season Ticket Holder start saving your sheckels to pay for your playoff tickets and keep rooting for the Caps to keep playing like they've been playing since the start of December.

The Caps are not playing tonight and to be honest I dozed off at the backend of the second period during last evening "tilt" in San Jose, so if you're looking for a good recap/summer go on over to Peerless's Blog. 

In the meantime if you are going to watch tonight's games I put this little guide so if you like me are a Capitals fan you can easily identify who you should be rooting for this evening.

In the meantime, I'm already thinking about the Caps next game in LA at Staples Center and hoping "our boys" are charged up to put on a good show and snatch another two points in front of their Dads as it's the start of the annual Fathers Trip.

 

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

It's All Good As Far As I can Tell In "CapsLand" Today....

Well fellow Caps fans in the week that has occurred since my last public musings/blog post as far as I can tell it's pretty much all good here in "Capsland." 

From a "big picture perspective" the Caps remain on track for a 100 point/40+ ROW season even though currently they are in the top wild card spot in the Eastern Conference as the third place NY Rangers have 3 games in hand on the Caps.  However the overall metropolitan Division race has tightened as only three points separate the Caps from the First Place Islanders.  Additionally the top of the Eastern Conference Standings have also tightened, even though 7 points separate the seventh place Caps from the first place Tampa Bay Lightning, only three points separate them from the Third Place Montreal Canadiens. Additionally there are now 8 points between the Caps and the currently "wrong side of the bubble" ninth 9th place Florida Panthers.  All things to ponder, muse/consider with just three weeks left before the 2014-2015 NHL Season trade deadline.

The Caps have played four games this past week racking up a 2-1-1 record, that 0.625 hockey, more importantly they had a GAA of slightly under 1.50 in those four games including a less than stellar defensive performance against the Saint Louis Blues where they allowed a high of 40 SOG by the Blues and lost 4-3.   Backup Goalie Justin Peters posted a SV% of 0.900 in the Saint Louis game but the Caps were basically just slightly outplayed by the Blues in every facet of the game and neither team played even close to their best hockey in front of wither Peters or Blues goaltender Brian Elliott who posted a 0.917 SV% against 36 Capitals SOG.  To me the second two periods of the game were the best goaltending we've seen from Peters since the start of the season and give me cause for hope.  I feel much of the fan calls for Peter's head are as much a result of just how well Braden Holtby is playing as they are caused by the fact that to date Peters has played just that much under where the Caps need him to play.  I've said it before, in the Caps are on their game and our net-minder posts a 0.915+ SV% two regulation goals should get the team at least one standings point and three goals all but guarantees a two point ROW night.  Hopefully in his next outing Peters gets more team defense in front of him and he notches his gam up from a 0.900 SV% to a 0.915+ SV%.  The other three games the Caps played this week were well played, if not excellent+ efforts all, even the 1-0 OT loss to Montreal at Belle Centre.  My view of the Montreal Game is the loss was due to two words - Carey Price, the Caps were very good up in Montreal but it was a night where Carey Price basically stole two points from Washington. 

The other two games were just awesome clinics in one way or  another.  Tuesday evening the reigning Stanley Cup Champion LA Kings came into town and faced Braden Holtby and the Capitals and all the Caps did is have Holtby pitch a perfect game 4-0 shutout while Troy Brouwer-Power scored two goals in 16:10 TOI while playing in his 500th NHL game.  As others noted afterward it was as complete and perfect execution of the Caps game plan as we've seen thus far this season. Against Ottawa last evening in Ottawa the Caps put on a clinic in three things a) how to properly respond to an opposing team opening the scoring in a game; and b) how to kill off penalties when the calls are going against you (Senators had 4 PP, Caps 0); and finally c) how to play with and protect a one goal lead in the final period of a game, other than the penalties, that is.  Finally a simple observation, perhaps only in Ottawa does a one tem get basically outplayed in pretty much every aspect of the game, lose 2-1 and still somehow end up having two of the three named stars of the game. 

In any case now looking ahead to this coming weeks games, the Caps have two home games this weekend - the Ducks tonight and the Flyers on Sunday afternoon.  Then they leave for a West Coast/California road trip facing the Sharks in San Jose on Wednesday evening; the Kings at LA's Staples Center on Saturday Evening and then the Ducks on the other side of LA LA Land in Anaheim at Honda Center on Sunday Evening before jetting home. So over the next nine (9) days the Caps have five games - 2 at home and 3 on the other end of a pretty darn long road trip.

Before we look forward and muse about tonight's Duck-Caps tilt at Verizon Center a couple of season to date notable statistics and associated musings:

1)  Along with his score of his thirty second goal of the season last evening, Alex Ovechkin returned to his position atop the NHL goal scoring leaders in the race for the Rocket Richard Trophy. As noted elsewhere, Ovechkin is just the fifth player in the "modern era" to put up thirty or more goals in his first ten NHL seasons and as long as the stars stay aligned for him, he could possibly "notch" his sixth 50 goal season this year.  He also has 18 assists and is + 13 for people that care about those things as well.  Oh and over the past couple of weeks he gave a car away to a charity, you might have heard about it cause it means that unlike last season when he was a selfish, self-absorbed, person and not very good/incomplete hockey player, this season he's both great at hockey and a really, really excellent human being.  Don't you just love it when a young man turns his life around?  ... Just kidding but lets be clear Ovi is now a great person having a great season, and apparently Sidney Crosby is as close to an enigmatic professional hockey player as someone not born in Russia can get. Maybe this off-season Sid can retain whoever counseled Ovi last summer.

2) Braden Holtby is now in the top five NHL Goalies stats for GAA and Save Percentage with season to date numbers of GAA 2.14; SV% of 0.925.  Holtby is also number two in shutouts with six (6) and and sixth in wins with 25.  Solid numbers given his league leading forty - five (45) games played and 2,634:04 time on ice this season to date.

3) Nicklas Backstrom has slowly climbed his own way up the league leaders overall scoring leaders to fourth with 54 points; Nicklas is also second on the "assists" leaders board with 38 apples.  Also not too shabby.

4) The Capitals now have six players on the roster with 11 or more goals; eleven (11) players with 15 or more points; and eighteen different players have scored at least one goal. 

5) Among NHL Defensemen, John Carlson is 10th in scoring and Mike Green is 14th with 35 and 30 points respectively.  Overall as a team to date the Caps are 9th in the Goals Against Department with just 130 goals against allowed and sixth in differential with a +23.  No doubt this is a much tougher team to play against then the Capitals teams of the past two seasons.

Now about tonight - I'm rooting for another two point night for the Capitals and the way I see it they'll get the ROW.  I figure the Ducks should be tired from scoring 5 goals on the Predators and Pekke Renne last evening in Smashville and flying to DC last night - that flying stuff really makes those guys wings/arms tired as I hear it.  Seriously, another great test for the Capitals, if they can keep playing like they have for the last four games, smart, disciplined, structured hockey the Caps could win tonight against a team coached by their old coach. 

I'm calling it 4-2 final for the Caps with the fourth goal into the empty net with under 1:30 to play.

LETS GO CAPS!!!

When .... It's ...

Helloooo out there fellow Caps fans!  Today we're going to play the "when ... it's ..." game in honor of the slight roller coaster we Caps fans have been on the past couple weeks.  From December 4th through January 7th the riding the "Caps Train" was all honey and butter, really great fun like listening to Aretha Franklin belt out her best tunes on Soul Train in the 70's.  But then starting with the Caps-Flyers game on January 8th, even though the "four game losing streak" didn't start till a week later on January 16th in Smashville, watching the Caps, while still mostly fun for us fans, starting to get to be a bit of an emotional roller coaster.  Games were tight and the play by the Caps was at times, tentative so we started to get a bit tense and at times "reactive" - perhaps we were really channeling the teams own feelings from closer to "real time" then they or we would have preferred.  But as the team heads into tomorrow's game in Montreal to take on the once again, very "hot" Montreal Canadiens, the Caps are seemingly back to riding a wave of confidence after empathically breaking their recent loosing streak and besting the Pittsburgh Penguins by a score of 4-0 on the friendly tide of solidly played home cooking at Verizon Center on Wednesday night.  Thankfully, they aren't going into Bell Center on the tail of Tuesday's game in Columbus and so the game of "When .... It's..."

Let's start the game with the big picture ....

1)  "When after the All Star Break, your NHL hockey team of choice is on pace to finish the regular season with 100+ points and 40+ ROW, It's time to start saving your shekels to be able to afford to go watch some playoff hockey."

2) "When four of the seven Canadian NHL franchises are on track to make the playoffs at the All Star Break, It's pretty pointless to even worry for one second what the US-Canadian exchange rate might do to the salary cap since unless they are criminally mismanaged the Canadian franchises are likely to remain incredibly financially healthy."

3) "When immediately after the All Star Break, despite having one of his worst seasons ever, Sidney Crosby is still "just" fifth in the entire NHL in points/scoring and on track for his fifth straight 100+ point season, It's tragically ironic and funny to listen to media wonder aloud "What's wrong with Sid this year, etc." and as a Caps/Ovechkin fan very easy to imagine Ovi calling Sid and opening a conversation with: "Hey Sid, Ovi here, I don't know why they decided it was your turn for them to talk stupidly about, but you know what I'm not gonna say I'm sorry it's someone else in the League's turn, make sure when you pass it along it's to somebody like Sequin or Giroux, or better yet that cocky little "B" Kane,  and not back to me, okay?"

Now onto the more micro picture of the Caps to finish out today's game ....

1) "When the Caps play like they did on Tuesday evening against the Blue Jackets in Columbus; It's really, really easy to get down on them and be very, very concerned that once again you and they might be spending more time on the golf course than you'd prefer. After all "it" happened just last spring."

2) "When the Caps play like they did on Wednesday evening against Pittsburgh at Verizon Center; It's really, really, really easy to foolishly not worry about anything with this team or even how deep they might go into the playoffs and start having "champaign wishes and caviar dreams" that might even extend past say ... May 2015.  But that too would be really, really foolish, I mean remember the 2009 - 2010 team and how great they looked before the second season started?"

But fear not and hey enjoy the ride while we all can since ...

1) "When your concerns in life are centered on how "your" NHL team is really doing and is really positioned for the playoffs and run for "The CUP" are problems you have tome to consider/worry; Its really "all good" as those are truly "just and solely" what I call "first world problems."  As if to drive that point home we Caps fans can proudly point to our Team Captain for reflecting that, behaving in a manner that was pretty fun for all NHL fans to watch during the All Star Break and then have it turn around/out that he used the stage to do something good for some youngsters and families that have real, everyday challenges and generally approach them in a manner that is just a great example and model for us all.  I know to some talking about this is getting old and tired, however every time I think about it, I feel good about being an NHL fan instead of taking even a second to talk about the right amount of pressure an NFL football is supposed to be inflated to, etc. 

2) Finally, tomorrow... When we Caps fans pump out a tweet that bemoans the fact that only Ovechkin as opposed to say Ovechkin, Backstrom and Carlson were selected for the All Star Game: It's probably a good idea to look at the other team and think how ironic it is/was that the only Montreal player selected for the All Star Team was Carey Price instead of Price, P.K Subban (2012 Norris Trophy Winner), and the team's leading scorer Max Pacioretty.   I mean at the break the Canadiens only had 61 points in 45 games played and a top five record in the league while Columbus, with three all stars somehow was/is struggling out side of the playoffs and in appearing to be getting ready to make a run at the "McDavid" Sweepstakes.  My point is while I love the All Star Game, it's an NHL marketing event on par with the best, most well orchestrated sports marketing ever.  Thinking about it any other way and trying to fret about where somebody goes in the "mock draft" or something like that is pointless.  Every player selected, even some guy who got the most votes because he's the only guy in the league from Latvia  "really, really good at hockey."  Follow Ovechkin's example have fun with it, and hey wouldn't it be really, really great if the entire NHL turned at least some of the fun and benefits it generates into some good action and awareness raising for good causes.  I say let's make it one big "ice bucket challenge, car give away for great causes."  I'm even down with making sure the total goals increase - as long as we ditch that friggin' cannon.

In the meantime I'm hoping for a 4 - 1 win by the Caps tomorrow against the Habs.  I say LETS GO CAPS!!!! Wire to wire, never trail or be tied after the first goal and score the final fourth goal into an open net late in the third to ice it. Realistically do I think that will happen, probably not, but if the Caps play tomorrow at Bell Center like they did Wednesday evening at Verizon, I know it's possible, and hey if you're going to dream, why not dream big, "it don't cost any more."

So .... When this Blogger is wrapping up a post .... It's time to loudly proclaim:

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

The Way Forward To The Playoffs For The Caps - A Fan Boy's Opinion

Okay I admit it, I'm a fan boy - a very competitive fan boy - but a fan boy none the less.  Yes I've played hockey growing up, even a little semi-formal" club level/DIII hockey a long time ago in college.  I also admit I wasn't very good, nor were the teams I played on.   So while I have some knowledge of ice hockey I consider myself a fan boy.  I did other sports much more seriously though and I'm quite competitive.  As a Capitals fan, last season (2013-14) was frustrating for me - as I absolutely love spending money to go see NHL playoff games and "my" Washington Capitals did not make the playoffs.  So this season with the Capitals on track to make the playoffs if they keep up the pace they've been playing my fan boy cheers are there to exhort our Capitals on to a clear path to the playoffs.  To me that means 100 points and 40+ ROW (Regulation/Overtime Wins). 

Sure as some have pointed out 95 points will probably be good enough in the East to make the post season, but I say - why chance it.  Go for 100+ and be safe.  The Capitals are currently on track - if they keep playing  to their 2014-15 "norm" the rest of the season.  This season over the first 46 games our Washington Capitals have played 0.619+ hockey and are on track for 101 points.  So I say stay the course Caps, don't let up, don't look back or down the standings at teams like Florida, or even Boston; look up at Pittsburgh, and even the New York Islanders, that way you'll be striving for excellence, rather than working to prevent any sort of collapse/slide.  Working to avoid something rather than achieve something just doesn't seem to me to be a "winning posture/mentality," nor does trying to be "just good enough" to get to the next step up from where you finished the prior season.  That's why I say reach for the stars, if you fall a little short, what's the worst thing that could happen - you get to Mars?  Think about it.  Strive for 100+ points and only get 98, you're probably still good to go for "the second season" - strive to squeak into the playoffs and miss, what happens - get the golf shoes out, ... AGAIN.  So I say skate fast, play hard (all 60+ minutes, have fun and win.

That's should be tonight's theme in Columbus - let's all push for the Caps to play so well tonight Holtby gets shutout number five, we don't hear that obnoxious cannon and Ovi gets the hat-trick just like Tavares did in the ASG out there.

Keys tonight for the Caps: a) hit on all eight cylinders all night long; b) backcheck, backcheck, backcheck; c) play the Blue Jackets key weapons tight to stifle there game and take it to them all night;  d) win the faceoff and therefore the puck possession battle; and finally e) keep it simple and shoot the puck on net, a lot.

Okay, forget about the last three games before the all star break and

 

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Looking Ahead - Caps Games 47 - 50 (Week of 1/25 - 31/2015)

Well Caps fans the All Star Game is over. Now, the week ahead means the Caps are in search of six more regular season standings points.  This week the Caps face the Blue Jackets in Columbus on Tuesday, on Wednesday they "host" the Penguins here in DC at Verizon Center and then they finish the week on Saturday in Montreal.  All in all it should be a tough week and an interesting week - a week of good hockey.  For the Caps what they need to do is simple, they need to break a three game losing streak. Lets face it the Caps weren't looking real good the last three games before the break so hopefully the week off has been a time for them to clear their minds, heal, make whatever adjustments they needed to make and be ready to resume the rest of the regular season in a manner that keeps them on track for a 100+ point/40+ROW season.

  The Caps can start the rest of the season off right with a win on Tuesday in Columbus, it won't be an easy two points though as Columbus hasn't been a easy game for the Caps this season two of the first three games have gone to OT sow while the Caps are 2-0-1 in those games each of the games have required the Caps to play a full 60:00+ at 100+% to get the five points they've captured.  The good news for the Caps on Tuesday is that the man who forced those last two games to OT - Sergei Bobrovsky will likely still be out and not in net for the Blue Jackets, the bad news - all the rest of the Columbus team will be eager to show the hockey world they can still win and compete for a playoff spot.

Then on Wednesday evening the Caps host the Penguins and a presumably well rested Sidney Crosby at Verizon Center.  The Penguins will be looking to "repay" the Caps for the 3-0 loss the Caps handed them a couple of weeks ago on December 27th at Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh. While it would be nice if Braden Holtby could come up with another shutout, it would be even nicer if the Caps played so well it was easier for he and they to come up with another wire to wire three goal victory.  But again it won't be an easy two points - to win the Caps entire team will have to play a 60:00, 200 foot, 110% game.

Then on Saturday afternoon, the Caps play a matinee in Montreal where they get to play Carey Price and surging Canadiens team.  The Habs are on pace for a 111 point/44 ROW Season and were 7-2-1 in their last 10 games before the ASG break.  Additionally the Caps fell to the Canadiens 2-1 in their one other meeting this regular season way back on October 9th when the Haps came to Verizon Center.  So again this game will require the Caps to play solid, "heavy" hockey through all 60:00 if they are to come away from Bell Center with any points.

If the Caps can turn the three game pre-ASG losing streak around and come away from these last three games of the month of January with at least three of the six available points, with a 7-4-2 record and 16 of the available 26 points (0.615) for the month.  They will also finish the month with a total of 60 points and 24 ROW in 49 GP - on track for a 100 point/40ROW season.  I believe it may actually take that be sure to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference this season the way things are going as right now 7 of the 8 teams in playoff positions are on track for 100 point seasons and number 8 - the Bruins are close behind on pace for a 97+ point season.  Additionally of the 8 Eastern Conference teams in playoff spots today 7 of the 8 have player 0.700+ hockey in their last 10 games before the ASG break; only the Penguins are under 0.700 and it doesn't seem likely they'll stay on their current 4-3-3 (0.550) - last 10 games - pace for long.

Well that's the week ahead for us Caps fans ... all I can say is ...

LETS GO CAPS!!!

Caps End 2014 In Fine Form But Start 2015 Off Even Better - Next Up the Streaking Florida Cats At Verizon Center On Sunday

Okay so I figured I'd just muse in my own head while all the Winter Classic "hubbub" swirled and then settled. Don't get me wrong the game was an awesome experience and once again despite the high cost of the tickets and the fact my sightlines were often obscured during the play during the first and second periods by people who didn't or don't know the basic courtesy of when to get in and out of your seats at a hockey game or ushers who don't know them as well (I was in Section 109 about 30 rows up (HH)) so if you're reading this and sat lower than me or above me you know what I'm talking about...) just like the Pittsburgh Winter Classic it was an experience I highly recommend for NHL fans anywhere.  But with so much focus and blogging about the Classic and every aspect of it, I don't feel I have much to add to the specific points or discussions other than in the context of where it leaves the Caps as far as looking forward towards the rest of the regular season.

As you likely know the Caps had a pretty awesome month of December going 8-2-3 (0.731), capturing at least a point in 11 of 13 games, only four (4) of which were at home.  It's even more impressive to me that during the month the Caps played ten of those thirteen games against teams with better than 0.500 records who are also having solid seasons so far and/or competing directly with the Caps for an Eastern Conference playoff spot.  While there really are no easy games in the NHL the results the Caps had against solid, "top 10 power rankings teams" last month were also encouraging:

- they faced and beat Tampa Bay in regulation twice;
- they fought hard but lost the record longest shoot out getting a point off a hot Florida Panther team on their Sunrise Florida Ice;
- they split two hard fought OT games against Columbus and a hot Sergei Bobrovski;
- they beat the Ottawa Senators in a 2-1 goalie dual here at Verizon Center in regulation;
- they shutout the Penguins in Pittsburgh (when was the last time that happened?) .

They also won three games they were supposed to win in regulation (the Devils twice, and Carolina).  The only two teams they really couldn't solve during December were their first game of the month against Vancouver at Verizon Center and their first meeting of the season against the Rangers at MSG on the even of the Christmas break, December 23rd in NY, where they lost 4-2 in regulation.  They finished the year with a comeback against the Islanders at Nassau Coliseum on December 29th to force overtime, and basically steal a point before a double minor high sticking call on Evgeny Kuznetsov, the second 2:00 of which were questionable, IMO, gave the Islanders the chance they needed to halt the comeback by the Caps and get the second point they really did deserve anyway for playing a full 60:00 game against the good guys from 7th and F.

In any case the Caps came out of December and into 2015 skating confidently and playing far more consistently than they started the month and that bodes well for them for the rest of the season as the rest of the 2014-15 season looks to be a tightening battle for the eight playoff spots in the Eastern Conference as the Capitals aren't the only teams competing for the playoffs that are looking good through their last ten games but more on that after a quick comment on the last Capitals game - the Winter Classic.

As pretty much anyone who watches any NHL hockey knows yesterday the Caps become only the third "home team" to win the Winter Classic.  That's the part of a very well played game against a really, really good opponent that I'd like to point to as the best thing as a Caps fan to takeaway from yesterday's Winter Classic.  A lot of commentary has gone in to wondering why the Home Teams very often loose the Winter Classic.  To me after hearing all the discussion I drill in to one thing - focus/distraction.  For the away team like the Caps were against Pittsburgh, even with all the hype and the likely fact a visiting team's players have a few friends and family at the game, the distractions are far less than for the home team.  It's much more similar to a "big" road game for them and little more than it is likely for the home team, especially now with the three day mandatory Christmas break.  For the Caps and the Winter Classic, many of them had ten or more friends and family with them through the holidays as well as at the game.  Think about how much having a big family gathering at your home for the Holidays creates pressures etc. on you and then add  this Winter Classic thing/hype to it, it can't be at all easy to stay focused on just going and doing your job even or maybe especially if your job is being a professional athlete in the middle of your sports season.  I think two things really helped the Caps stay focused on what they needed to do yesterday: 1) they had two road games between the Christmas break and the Winter Classic - so it's likely we should all thank the Caps wives, girlfriends and families for dealing with a lot of their own "logistics" between December 26th and yesterday morning; 2) that "culture change thing" we all heard about during the Epix series leading up to the Winter Classic where the Caps now focus more on playing a simpler game geared towards team success, getting two points, and doing so one game at a time, for that I think we should thank the coaching staff for putting it out there, and the team (all of them) for buying into it and taking forward.  As a whole the other thing to really be happy about if you're a Caps fan is it was a well played, 200' game against a very, very solid opponent for the full 60:00.  The only thing not to like about this game for the Caps, IMO, is/was the fact they are still taking too many penalties but (7 minor penalties for the game vs. 5 for the Blackhawks) however I really grow more and more disappointed with the "activist referees" in the NHL this season and will likely blog more on that another time, when I can distill my thoughts and give a bunch of great examples though it's likely that both the call against Matt Niskanen at 16:46 of and Jonathan Toews at 18:47 of yesterday's third period will be examples of my issues on that list. 

In any case I like Mr. Leonsis am very grateful for having had the opportunity to attend yesterday's game and for all who helped make it happen, first let me say thanks to everyone who helped put me in a position to shell out a pretty penny for both my Season Tickets and my extra tickets to the WC that were pricey.  This is not a backhanded statement, it's a pricey addiction I've developed but as I've mentioned before going to games like this with my only child like yesterday are truly a joy and I don't ever want to forget that while I am splurging on things like this, others who are less fortunate are struggling, especially as the holiday season winds down.  My son and I now have two sets of Winter Classic memories both of which are really special to me. Thanks to all the other hockey fans here in DC - like the NHL commercial used to say, Hockey Fans are generally special people and I really enjoy being part of that community here in the DC metro.  Thanks to the players in the NHL - you guys all of whom seem to "keep it real" make it far, far easier for me to stay very supportive of pro hockey in a way that frankly I find much, much harder to do for any other professional sport. 

So now what about January?  Well our Washington Capitals are already 1-0-0 on January and have another busy month like December ahead of them.  Including yesterdays Winter Classic the Caps have thirteen (13) games on the schedule for January.   Of the 13 games the Caps had the Winter Classic now in their rear view mirror an a nice two point "home" win.  The rest of twelve (12) games in January consist of six (6) home games and six (6) away.  Of the thirteen (13) games, only the two games against the division rival Flyers who have only 35 points in 37 games played, as well as the games against the Avalanche (36 points in 37 games played), and  Oilers (24 points in 38 games played) are against teams with less than 0.500 records.  The Caps have a total of five (5) against Western Conference Teams and eight (8) are against Eastern Conference Teams this month. Their lonest home stretch is three games (January 10th to 14th - Red Wings, Avalanche, Flyers - three (3) games in four (4) days/nights.  They also have two sets of "back to back" road games - 1/7 and 1/8 Maple Leafs then Flyers, and 1/16 and 1/17 Nashville and Dallas .  So as you can see this month won't be an easy one for the Capitals.  Add to that that their Metropolitan Conference rivals are all also playing pretty well: Division Leading Pittsburgh 5-3-2; the second place Islanders 6-3-1; the fourth place Rangers an awesomely hot 9-1-0 and fifth place Columbus 8-1-1 all in their last 10 games and you can see why the Caps need to keep playing with the same focus and intensity - one game at a time - like they did yesterday to keep up and/or beyond the pace of the guys they are both chasing and being chased by this month.

Starting on Sunday they host the Florida Panthers who have not been an easy opponent for the Caps so far this season.  They've played the Panthers twice this season first on October 18th at Verizon Center a game the Caps won in a 2-1 shootout victory and then on December 18th at Sunrise Florida where the Panthers won the game in the NHL record 20th round of the shootout.  To say I think the Caps might be able to "get up" to play a hard 60:00 200' foot game against the Panthers is probably understatement but the Panthers are also playing well of late 5-3-2 (0.600 hockey) in their last 10 games and have 41 points in 35 games so far this season so are not to be taken lightly in any case.

So with those thoughts in mind I just want to once again say ...

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Caps Now 8-2-2 For December and 0.600 On 2014-15 Season; SWEET

Last night in Pittsburgh it was a two point night for our Washington Capitals, it's been a pretty long time since the Capitals had a two point game that they came out on top of in Pittsburgh.  Last night's win in Pittsburgh gave the Capitals an 18-11-6 record and 17 Regulation/Overtime Wins (ROW) in 35 games played.  That's a solid 0.600 on the season to date.

Back on December 6th just three weeks ago I mused about the likely difference between ending up on "the right side" versus the "wrong side" of the bubble both in terms of record and pace/quality of play by the Capitals.  Granted none of the thoughts expressed in my December 6th blog are "rocket science."  However, up to that point in time the 2014-15 edition of the Washington Capitals had not played consistently in a manner that exhibited the play I mused about.  However, now 22 days later I can safely point to the past ten (10) games as an extended stretch where the Caps entire roster has pretty much all elevated their compete level and been rewarded with 16 standings points and increased confidence in both their own individual skills and abilities as well as the system they are now playing.

Last night's game was from my perspective the best game of hockey I've seen the Capitals play in over at least 15 months.  The Caps played a team game, with skill, and beat a very good team, whose goaltender was on his game.  Think about it, when was the last time the Caps really did that and you weren't surprised if not shocked?  For me it's pretty much been since the end of the 2011-12 season that I've felt this solidly confident in the Capital's abilities to play through adversity, play hard on the puck and 110%, 200 foot hockey and not get frustrated by an NHL goalie on his game or otherwise do something that gave the opposing team a real opening to beat them with.  I've got to say, it's a really good feeling for a fanboy like me.  Also looking back at my December 6th musing, I also want to say that every player on the list I did, save one are all more valuable to the team and contributory to it's ability to win then I felt they were three weeks ago.  The one player whose gone "down" in the rating system I used back on December 6th being Jason Chimera, but I'm guessing if you read this blog you probably already knew that.

The last game of December for the Capitals is tomorrow in Uniondale against the New York Islanders, the Isles are in second place in the Metropolitan Division and Third in the Eastern Conference with 47 points in 35 games.  Tomorrow's game on the Island will likely be very similar to last night's game in Pittsburgh, the Caps will face a good team anchored by a couple very fast skilled forwards and a very solid goaltender.  To win against the Islanders they'll have to play a similar "heavy" game.  That is apparently the new vernacular for a physical, tightly contested game of hockey as per yesterday's NBCsn  team that called the Caps/Pens game.

I'm now quite "bullish" on the Caps, and assuming they play tomorrow's game the same way they did yesterday's contest, I'm looking for a 4 - 2 Caps victory, the four players to ponder in my view are:  Holtby and Halak in goal and Backstrom and Tavares up front.  In the meantime

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Caps Defeat Senators at Home 2-1 Look to Extend Streak at MSG Tonight

Well Caps fans as Barry Trotz noted last evening after the Capitals had a two point night at Verizon Center sometimes you win a game you might not really have deserved to and sometimes you loose a game you clearly did everything to earn two points from and come away empty - that's hockey.  Last night the Caps got two points, primarily on the back of their goaltender Braden Holtby against the Ottawa Senators, tonight they face the Rangers up in Manhattan, to extend their streak I think the recipe will need to continue to include a 0.920+ save percentage from #Holtbeast but it will also likely need to include some additional shooting and scoring across a broader spectrum of the lineup. But let's give credit where credit is due for last night's two point victory - THANK YOU and MERRY CHRISTMAS to BRADEN HOLTBY and FAMILY!

Tonight is the first meeting of this season for the Caps and Rangers - Metropolitan Division foes currently fighting for third place in the tightly contested awkwardly named "Metro."  The Rangers come into the game  looking to extend their current winning streak to seven (7) games and 8-2-0  (0.800) in their last 10 games, to say they are "hot" right now would be understatement at it's finest.  The Caps come in looking to extend their current winning streak to four (4) and are 7-1-2 (0.800) in their last 10 and also playing very solid hockey.  Both team's current good fortune is a function of solid goaltending, 200 foot hockey, and a balanced offense led by dynamic left wings and solid centermen. The Rangers have given up just 17 goals against whilst scoring 33 goals for in their last ten outings, while the Capitals have given up 27 goals while scoring 34 goals.  During their last ten games Rangers Goalie Cam Talbot has two (2) shutouts and Henrik Lundquist has one "perfect game." While over here in "Capitals Land" Braden Holtby has had one shutout and three games where he allowed just a single opponents goal.  Goal scoring for the Rangers is led by dynamic wing Rick Nash with 20 goals and 13 assists in 31 games played, seven other Rangers have 5 or more tallies so far this season as well.  Our Capitals have goal scoring led as usual by Alex Ovechkin with  15 goals and 12 assists though the points leader on the team is his line-mate Nicklas Backstrom with 11 goals and 25 assists; also with 10 goals are Joel Ward and Troy Brouwer.  Additionally the Caps have three other players with 5 or more goals and three others with four goals so far this season. 

Whats that all mean?  I think it means tonight's first game of the season between these two division rivals is going to be a knock down, drag out battle royale and a heckuva game to watch.  I'm not making any sort of scientific analysis based prognostication, as I've said occasionally in the past I'm a Capitals fan through and through so I'm calling this one for the Caps and looking for a breakout night for Capital's stars and grinders alike.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Last Night - The Perfect Illustration of Why I Think They Should ALL Be Three Point Games....

If you understand the title of this blog, and if you are here reading my musings you probably do, you know exactly what the title referees to.  If you don't well here it is, in the NHL during the regular season some games count for two points and some games count for three points in the standings, and well that just , well ... makes no sense at all.  Until a couple of years ago every game counted for two points in the standings, win get two points, tie each team gets one point.  But hey someone decided , we hockey fans hated ties and in every game there had to be a winner and a loser, so the solution was ... now get this, if a game ends in regulation in a tie, each team still splits the two original points, but then gets to play first a 5:00 overtime at 4 on 4 and if that doesn't result in a winner they do a shootout - basically the NHL's version of a layup completion for an extra point and the one who wins that is the "winner" of that game, with the one who loses it getting the consolation prize - keeping the "looser" point they already won. And just to make sure they make it clear how dumb they know we fans think this skills competition to decide the winner of a team sport game is, if at the end of a season two teams are tied in the standings the first "tiebreaker" is the total number of Regulation and 4 on 4 overtime wins in the season.

However this past week in the NHL, especially if you are a Capitals fan, the ludicrousity of the current way things are done couldn't be driven home to you more with an 8# sledgehammer. First our Capitals take part in and loose a 20 round shootout in Florida, now remember one of the so called excuses for the shootout vice a longer 4 on 4 OT or following the 4 on 4 with a 3 on 3 is well it takes too long.  So that really short 20 round shootout, that was the way to go right? And now we had last night, the Caps are "on the bubble" battling the NY Rangers for third in the Division, they basically owned their opponent last night, the New Jersey Devils, especially for the last 40:00 of the game beating them in a 4-0 shutout.  For their efforts they were awarded two standings points and New Jersey got no points.  That makes sense right?  Sure until you look at the game that was played between the Rangers and the Hurricanes last night in Raleigh, NC.  There while the Rangers certainly did enough to earn a win, it too them a 3 round shoot out to get is so they too got two points last night just like the Capitals.  My point is had all games been worth the same weight in the standings the Capitals would have edged one point further in front of the Rangers last night.  In fact if a Regulation win was worth three points while the Metropolitan Division Standings would be the same then the Capitals would have 50 standings points to the Rangers 47  and we wouldn't need to keep track of "ROW" at all. 

 

I could talk about last night's game in Newark more but it's been all over the web and NHLN all day so far.  Here's five quick hit take away points from the game and the coverage: 

1) Braden Holtby played very well and earned his shutout - 21 saves were required of him and several were very difficult to make.

2) Ovechkin's goal was one of those highlight reel Ovi goals we will see many times more and one of his best moves ever.

3) Nicklas Backstrom is an awesome hockey player too and it takes Ovi doing something like 2) above to cast even a small amount of shade on that fact from time to time.

4) This Mike Green guy ... really good at hockey as well, probably time for the Caps to figure out how to extend/resign him.

5)  The entire Capitals team is now wholly invested in the new system under Barry Trotz and basically getting better every game they play at executing it.

But in the end this is just hockey not world peace we are talking about here so moving on to my next hockey musing, "How 'Bout dem Caps! anyways?" Playing 0.700 hockey in their last ten games and looking more and more like a very solid team every game they play.  Next up are the Ottawa Senators, who are solidly on the bubble right now so that won't be an easy game, tomorrow night at DC's Verizon Center.  Then on Tuesday night it's a trip up to Madison Square Garden to face those very same NY Rangers on Manhattan.  Then after Christmas they face the Penguins in Pittsburgh on the 27th and the Islanders in Uniondale on the 29th before coming home for the Winter Classic on New Year's day here in DC.  And I thought I had a busy holiday season planned, wheh!

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Is the Trend Really Our Friend? Are the 2014-15 Capitals Really Harder to Play Against Than the 2013-14 model was?

Good Evening Capitals fans and a fine late, late fall evening it is since this evening the Capitals find themselves playing 0.581 hockey for the NHL Regular season to date and once again "on the right side of the bubble.:  Additionally as one of my mentors used to say, "the trend is our friend," and with a record of 6-2-2 (0.700) in their last 10 games and 5-0-2 in their last 7 games the trend is indeed our friend. 

That said, not to be a buzzkill, it is worth noting that so far this season through 31 games the Caps have 36 points and a record of 15-10-6 with 14 ROW while last year at this point (31 games played) they had 36 points and were 17-12-2 with just 10 ROW.  You'll remember last year  when the end of the regular season came along the Capitals all took off their skates and immediately put on their golf shoes.  That's why it is important that two things we all seem to feel right now are true: 1) the trend is indeed our friend and the Capitals can sustain that trend for the remaining 3 1/2 months in this regular season; and 2) the Capitals of 2014-15 are a harder team to play against than the Capitals of 2013 - 14.  So let's take a look and see if the data and facts support those two anecdotal "feelings."

First are they harder to play against?  and Is the trend indeed our friend? Facts/data - through 31 games the Caps this season have earned a standings point in 21 games (67.7%) while last season they had done so in only (61.3%).  This season they have ROW in 45.2 % of their games while last season at this point it was an abysmal ~30%.  By the ~tens last season games 20 - 31 the Capitals went 6-4-1 with 4 ROW (0.650) ; this season's games 20 - 31 the Caps are 6-2-3 (0.750) with 6 ROW.  Seems like the trend is more our friend right now than last season and the difference in ROW is some indication of the results of being harder to play against - the real driver of that is their overall improvement in Corsi For and Corsi Against, IMO as well.  Team Goal Differential to date is +6, at the end of 8 games last season the Caps team goal differential was -5, that's a huge difference that says the Caps are tougher "on the puck" now then last season, IMO.  So when you look at both the basic as well as the "fancy stats" and then also consider the roster's individual stats  so the Caps have balanced scoring more than they've had in a long time, and it's obvious the offense is starting in the defensive zone with the scoring being well supported by the entire Blue Line Corps, the answers are indeed.  Yes the Caps are a much harder team to play against this season than last, and Yes, the trend is our friend. 

BUT fellow Caps fans don't celebrate quite yet, from what I can tell, the Capitals aren't even close to getting off the bubble and being solidly a playoff team quite yet and they have to keep up their current play of 0.700 for another months to be so, They are solidly in the middle of the "bubble pack" right now and we are only 37.8% through the regular season right now. If you look at the league standings the  Caps are in 8th place in the Eastern Conference: 1/2 game behind the Panthers who are in 7th; 2 games behind the 6th place Maple Leafs, 2 games behind the 5th place Canadians, 2 1/2 games behind the fourth place Red Wings, and three games behind the third place Islanders.  The , Habs, Wings  and Islanders all have 6 more points that the Capitals but really all nine teams from the third place Islanders through the 11th place Senators are within a 10 point spread with 60+% of the regular season still to play.  Even the Second place Lighting and First Place Penguins are theoretically within striking distance for the Caps, Panthers, Bruins and Rangers (10th place). However the reality is Pittsburgh has played awesomely though all sorts of adversity this season and (goal differential +28, overall 0.742 on the season through 31 games played) and the Lightning have been pretty solid across the board as well (goal differential +23, 0.652 on the season through 33 games played).  However if the Capitals can finish out December (13 games total) with at least 19 of the 26 available points, 0.731, which is possible given they have 12 of those 19 points so far and have the opportunity to capture as many as 10 more, so "all" they need to do is "just" keep playing 0.725+ hockey.  Then for the Caps to likely get off the bubble "on the right side" as quickly as possible, they continue playing that style, effort and getting those results through, at least their game on January 16th against the Predators in Smashville, (another 8 games) so they have at least another 11 points and that would give them a total of 54+ points through 44 games and give them a 0.614 record overall on the season.  Then if the Caps can keep that up they would end the season with what I consider a magic number ... 100 points and be solidly on the right side of the bubble and very, very likely NOT need to play the "Wildcard Sweepstakes" to get into the playoffs.

But the quest for all those things starts tomorrow evening in Newark, NJ against those pesky Devils who are always tough for us to play against even though they are 2-6-2 in their last 10 games.  The Devils have a -22 goal differential in 33 games played primarily because they don't score enough goals, they only have 74 goals for (2.24 GFG) so far, as compared to the Capitals' 2.94 GFG so far this season which coincidently is only slightly more than the Devils' GA/G of  2.91.  So, as long as the Caps drive the net as hard tomorrow evening as they did last evening against the Blue Jackets they should come away from Newark with "a two point night."  However, as I said we are talking about the always pesky Devils and that's why they play the games on the ice.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!

A Midwinter's Night's Dream

This evening I was musing (that's sorta like dreaming right? - well to me it is anyway) musing about the Capitals and the month of December, you know the run-up to the Winter Classic.  Right now the Caps sit in fourth place in the Metropolitan division with 34 points in 30 Games played with 13 ROW. Just on the wrong side "of the bubble" behind the Panthers for a Wild Card (Florida has 34 points in 29 games played) and the Rangers for Third Place in the Division (also 34 points in 29 games played.)

So far during the month of December, the Caps have played seven (7) games and are 4-1-2, (4 ROW) that's 0.714 hockey getting standings points in 6 of those 7 games.  In their last ten games, the Caps are 5-2-3 (0.650).  So right now the Capitals are playing pretty well, and that's a good thing as the Caps have six more games to play this month, five of which are on the road against Division rivals. So my midwinter's night dream is that the Caps keep playing like they have been and play at least 0.700 hockey the rest of this month which would mean they'd end the month with 43 points (18-11-7, 17 ROW) and 0.597 on the season on the eve of the Winter Classic.  That would likely put them "on the right side" of the bubble again.  It would also mean the Capitals had played 0.731 hockey through a 13 game month where 9 of the 13 games were on the road.  Basically the month of December is looking more and more like a very critical month in the Cap's quest to ensure they make the playoffs when the regular season comes to an end on April 11, 2015.

My other hockey musing of late, I don't know why, is how much I hate "the shootout."  What a horrible way to determine the winner of a sport that is so much a team game.  Also why do teams that can't win in regulation get to split more points than teams that can?  I mean if a game is worth three points, why isn't every game worth three points?  If you want to give a team that takes the winner past regulation play one point fine do that, but if a team wins in regulation why don't they get all three points?  Look in reality I'm fine with every game being two points and if at the end of 60:00, during the regular season, end it a tie and each team gets 1 point; if a team wins in regulation give them two.  But if you are for three point games I'm definitely for playing 10 minutes of 4 on 4, then 5 minutes of 3 on 3, or 5 minutes of 5 on 5 and 10 minutes of 3 on 3 before going to some potentially ridiculous (20 rounds for example of ridiculous) shootout/skills competition.  But hey, I'm just saying....

In the meantime, tomorrow night the Caps take on the Blue Jackets in Columbus.  The Jackets are on a 7 game winning streak and 7-3-0 in their last ten, the key to beating them is "beating Bob" - Sergei  Boborvski has a GAA of just 1.71 in those 7 games including a 3-2 OT win over the Capitals just six nights ago here in Verizon Center.  Also don't count on a 60:00 game, only 2 of the Blue Jackets last 7 games have been settled in regulation, one of those extended time games was a 1-0 shootout win against the Red Wings last night while the Caps were going through their 20 round shootout in Sunrise.  Anyhow I think the Caps have shown they can score pretty well against the Blue Jackets and the way they played last night was pretty solid against a pretty solid goalie so I'm looking for the game to end:

Capitals  2 - Blue Jackets 1.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!!

Up or Down? Heads or Tails?

Two weeks ago I mused that the Caps had a busy time ahead and how their play to that point exemplified "life on the bubble".  At that point their 2014-15 season was 23.7% complete and they were playing slightly over 0.550 hockey, well this morning their season is 30.5% complete and they are now playing 0.520 hockey to date.  So they are still exemplifying life on the bubble - it's just that this morning they are on the wrong (as opposed to the right) side of the bubble. why that is the case simply remains a mystery to this fan boy but it is the case.  Why they are 4-5-1 as opposed to something considerably better is a mystery to me as well.  I mean I know its because they can't or won't finish off an opponent, you know get and keep that two goal lead next goal as opposed to letting their one goal down opponent tie the game in the third period, I just can't figure out why that keeps happening.  If I could figure it out, I could probably make a good living as one of Barry Trotz's assistants right now though so I'm not alone in my quandary.

The Caps awaken this morning with 26 standings points in 25 games played, ten (10) of their 11 wins on the season are ROW so that's on a better pace than they had last season (a good thing since last season they didn't make the post season).  Of the four "loser" points they've captured, two (2) are from shootout losses and two are from OT losses.  That's balanced play, unfortunately as I've mentioned before balance that equals 0.500 hockey is for all intents and purposes "mediocrity" at the NHL level.  I'm not ranting, you really cannot disparage being in the middle of the pack when you are talking about playing any professional sport's highest level.  I certainly couldn't do it, and I've seen some good hockey so far this season played by the Capitals.  However let's be clear when a professional athlete is paid to play at a sport's highest level whether it's under an NHL CBA league minimum deal or a deal closer to the  maximum under the salary cap - you know one of those say 6, 7, 8, 9 or 10M/year deal, a team's ownership, management, coaching staff and fan base are all asking when will we see this team raise Lord Stanley's Cup in June of what year? What will it take to make this team better and able to do that? Meanwhile, you can bet if they are playing regularly in the NHL every one of those athletes is saying how can I help my team go deep in the playoffs and ultimately win a Cup?

That's why in many ways "Life On The Bubble" is probably more frustrating than "Life in the Conner McDavid Sweepstakes" for both we fans and for the professionals.  Right now there are 13 of the 30 NHL teams , I'd characterize as "living on the bubble", number 11 in the league overall standings Winnipeg Jets have 32 points (in 27 games played) (0.592) while number 24 Arizona has 23 points in 27 games, though having lost their last two games and with a 3-5-2 record in their last 10 the Coyotes like the Flyers seem to be looking to solidly enter those McDavid Sweepstakes.  In any case the difference between number 11 and number 24 is just 9 standings points that's a pretty tight grouping around the midpoint of the current "bubble" upon which sit the Capitals and the New York Rangers each with 26 points in league overall standings positions 19 and 20 respectively.  Since neither the Capitals nor the Rangers look like teams destined to enter and win the McDavid Sweepstakes, it's likely going to be a year where we Caps fans will continue to frequently be on the edge of our seats and frustrated between now and April and we may not know if we'll need to buy playoff tickets until the last day of the season.  As such I for one wish to implore "my team" to please, please, please STOP playing down to the levels of your opponents on any given night .... PLEASE.  I know a lot of folks seemed to be pleased with Thursday's evening's game in Carolina, I was not.  I thought the Capitals could have easily played a better second period and put the Hurricane's away, I thought they should have never allowed the Cane's to tie the game and after that with just a little more grit and a bounce here or there that they could have/would have manufactured had the first and second lines worked just maybe 1.5% harder would have come, they could have had two more goals so the last 3:00 wouldn't have been a time where the Hurricanes even had a chance of tying the game.  That's what needs to happen - EVERY NIGHT - for this team to be playing 0.600 hockey instead of the 0.450 hockey they've played through their last 10 games.

Let's be clear and put this into perspective the 2014-15 Washington Capitals have the second highest salary payroll against the salary cap of the 30 teams in the NHL for this season as projected by capgeek.com - this team has been assembled and is being paid to win now.  The highest paid team - the Pittsburgh Penguins are doing what they are being paid to do - they are playing 0.720 hockey on the season to date; the top two three teams in the league standings to date, 1)the Tampa Bay Lightning have 39 points in 27 GP (0.722), 2) the Anaheim Ducks have 39 points in 28 GP (0.697)  and 3) New York Islanders have 38 points in 26 GP (0.731) all have payrolls that are $4, 5, and 6 million less than the Capitals so they are definitely doing what they're being paid to do and earning their money. The Caps need to play in a manner and achieve results that make an irrefutable case that they have earned their money for each of the remaining 57 games this season in order to ensure they make the playoffs, it's that straightforward.

My points and thoughts today are simple:

A) Caps Team please play YOUR game, play it "RIGHT" and play it with 110%+ effort from the initial faceoff for ALL 60:00 tonight.  Do NOT, please, play down to the level of your opponent the New Jersey Devils. Do that and you should get a 2+ goal led by the middle of the second period lead and keep it through the end of the game.  Please don't play like you pretty much have most of the other 25 games to date this season and keep us on the edge of our seats to the bitter end of the game - the Devils really aren't good enough this season that this game should be in doubt with less than 10:00 left in regulation. Oh and to make sure that doesn't happen by Corey Schneider stealing a game or a point - crash the net.

B) Once you do that all tonight imprint it in your minds and please repeat it every game for the rest of them until the regular season ends in April and then just turn it all up a couple of notches for the post season.

C) Caps management - the time to start fixing this team or finish doing so, depending on your viewpoint is now.  Step (1) is getting yourself some Salary Cap space now so you can get what you need. I've said it before and I'll say it now - if the Capitals are ever going to win a Stanley Cup there can be nothing off the table.  To me I look at the roster in two directions 1) From the highest paid guys to the lowest and 2) from the goal line out. From either direction the first question I ask is: "Can I see this guy skating around Verizon Center with a Stanley Cup raised above his head blood seeping from a re-opened cut on his head from "doing whatever it took to win" and an ear to ear grin on his face in a Capital's Sweater and here's my answers:

TOP PAID DOWN                                 GOAL LINE OUT
Ovechkin    - YES                                    Holtby - Maybe
Backstrom  - YES                                    Peters - NO
Green          - Probably                            Green -  Probably
Niskanen    - Probably                             Niskanen - Probably
Orpik          - YES                                    Orpik - YES
Laich          - No                                       Carlson - YES
Carlson       - YES                                    Alzner - Probably
Brouwer     - Yes                                      Schmidt - Maybe
Ward          - Yes                                      Orlov - No
Alzner        - Probably                              Erskine - No
Chimera      - Probably                             Hillen - NO
Johannsson - Yes                                      Backstrom - YES
Orlov           - No                                      Johannson - Yes
Erskine        - No                                      Burakovsky - Maybe
Holtby         - Maybe                                Kuznetsov - Maybe
Fehr             - Probably                             Beagle - Probably
Peters          - NO                                       Latta - Maybe
Beagle         - Probably                              Ovechkin - YES
Kuznetsov - Maybe                                    Laich - No                                          
Burakovsky - Maybe                                 Chimera - Probably
Wilson         - Yes                                      O'Brien - Probably
Hillen           - NO                                      Wilson - Yes
Schmidt        - Maybe                                Brouwer - Yes
Volpatti        - NO                                      Fehr - Probably
O'Brien         - Probably                             Ward - Yes
Latta             - Maybe                                 Volpatti - NO

So musing on this list forced me to think about the following in order -

i) If this guy is on the roster and playing in a Stanley Cup Finals do I see the Caps having the requisite talent and drive as a team to be able to win?

ii) If this guy is on the roster and playing in a Stanley Cup Finals do I see him as an individual player as having the requisite talent to be able to be in a position at this time in his career to help win games in a Stanley Cup Finals series?

iii) If this guy finds himself playing in the Stanley Cup Finals in May 2015, hurting or hurt, sucking for air at the end of a shift late in the third period or in the second overtime, do I see him doing whatever it takes to win even if he knows he's going to loose two teeth stopping a shot (in other words at that moment would he play like Bobby Clarke of the Flyers in the 1974 Finals) etc?

iv) Do I think this guy currently durable enough to make it through playing the majority of the season and several seven game playoff series in a way that he can stay healthy enough to be able to play well enough and hard enough to make a difference in a final game of a series if it were to need to go to multiple overtimes to be decided.

Rankings from best to worst are: YES, Yes, Probably, Maybe, No, and NO.

- At this point therefore what I'm saying is that if approached with a reasonable offer Brian MacLellan should consider offers for anyone whose name isn't spelled Ovechkin, Carlson, or Backstrom. Of course if they are a "Yes" need make sure that without a doubt unless you are crazy you'd agree the move makes the Capitals a better team - so it's a fair trade that would make both teams better by a trade of likely equally good players but puts them into positions on teams where they are better fits.

- I'm also saying that all NO, No and most if not all "Maybe" players should be shopped to either provide Cap space for "deadline deals" or to try and ensure this team can and does play 0.600 or better hockey during the rest of this season. So what I'm saying is NOW is the time to move Dmitry Orlov to another team and get something we need, maybe a solid backup goalie who we all would say is a "probably" NOW instead of a No or NO ....

- Probably guys should be closely examined and it needs to be determined how they can be either better utilized on the roster to make the team a more consistent 0.600+ team or moved for value that does. So for example, NOW is the time to make a decision on Mike Green, resign/extend him or trade him.

If management and the coaching staff doesn't do this now, it's likely that at the end of the season this team will still be drowning in a sea of "up or down" and "heads or tails" mediocre play and results.  Also at that time we Caps fans will again likely again in a situation where we can use the money we have in our pockets for a really good vacation at the beach instead of spending it on playoff tickets.

In the meantime a start in the right direction would be kicking the Devil's butts in Newark tonight.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!

November 22nd - The Start of a Busy Schedule Week for the NHL as We Prepare for Turkey Day ...

Well Caps fans here in bucolic Bristow, fall is in the air, the leaves are quite well into "falling", in fact most have already "fallen."  As I noted yesterday this last week of November is a busy week for the NHL's Metropolitan Division.  Tonight we Caps fans, in addition to rooting for our Caps to dull the Sabres at Verizon Center, we're rooting for a 2 and only 2 point night in Uniondale, the Flames to scorch the Devils in Calgary, and the Blue Jackets to beat the Flyers in regulation in Philadelphia.  So say this three times fast: Lets Go Caps! Flames! and Blue Jackets, and three cheers for "meh" hockey on Long Island!

In any case that's probably too much to ask for everything so let's focus on Caps vs. Sabres at Verizon Center. The Sabres started the season off slowly but have won their last two games including beating the San Jose Sharks at home in Buffalo on Tuesday by a score of 4-1 after beating their rival  Maple Leafs 6-2 at home last Saturday. So the Sabres come into this game playing as hot as they've been in quite some time.  The Capitals also come into the game on a two game winning streak having won their last two in tight checking 1 goal road games. For the Caps to win here's the recipe as I see it - limit the Sabres to 30 or fewer shots on goal, a team SV% of 0.92+, and play an aggressive two man in forecheck.  In other words the Caps need to PLAY THEIR GAME and NOT let Buffalo set the pace of play or get them off their game plan. For Buffalo to win they have to come out flying and catch the Capitals back on their heels - of course the Capitals have to stop that from happening, if they manage to control the Sabres the first ten minutes of th game and score first the Capitals should finish the night with two goals and win by a score of  4 - 2 or 3 - 1 or better.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Capitals Hockey 23.2% Into the 2014 -15 NHL Season: Life On The Bubble Exemplified

Well Caps fans our Washington Capitals completed their 19th game of the 2014-15 Season in Denver, CO last evening and achieved a two (2) point regulation win over the Colorado Avalanche.  It was their eighth (8) ROW (Regulation/Overtime Win) of the season.  they are now on pace for a total of  90+ points and notable 34+ ROW.  If this were last season that would place them again "just" on the wrong side of the bubble as they finished last season with 90 points as well but only 28 ROW due to having earned 14 "looser" points which so far this season they've only gotten 3 and are on track for just 12 loser points.  That's the bad news, the good news is "the trend is our friend" and while living life on the bubble trends are everything When last season ended the two "wild Card" teams aka "Winning Bubble Teams" were Columbus with 93 points of which 38 of their 43 wins were "ROW" and they had only 7 "loser points" and Detroit who also had 93 points of which they had 34 ROW and 15 loser points.  That means that in Columbus' case 92+% of their 93 points were "2 point games" while in Detroit's case ~84% of their points were "2 point games."

 For the Capitals thus far this season , 85.7 of the 21 points they've accrued to date are a result of "two point nights."  Additionally, they find themselves in third place in the Division and "on the right side" of the bubble right now because with the exception of the Florida Panthers and Ottawa Senators they've played no more games than the other Eastern Conference "bubble teams".  Additionally 0.550 (4-3-3) at home and 0.5556 (5-4-0) on the road thus far this season.  The Caps, surprisingly find themselves in need of making Verizon Center a harder place for opposing team's to play when for the majority of the past 5 seasons Verizon has earned a reputation of being a hard place to play and beat them and last season the Caps had a 0.598 record.  if the Caps stay on track for a 0.550 road record and raise their game at Verizon back to 0.598, they will end the season with 94 points and at least 35 ROW which should put them "on the right side of the bubble."  Given the trends and what we've been seeing from the Capitals the 5-4-1 record they have thus far in November, should they string a couple more wins together before the end of November, of the remaining four (4) games this month, clearly the "home and home" against the New York Islanders are most important.  However as long as the Capitals win three of the next four games (6 of 8 available standings points) they should close the gap with either the NY Islanders or Pittsburgh Penguins by at least two points before the month of  December starts.  That will give the Capitals 27 points in 23 games - on a 0.587 pace for the season, on pace for a 96 point season and securely in third place in the Metropolitan Division - avoiding the "Wild Card Sweepstakes" altogether.

The Islanders have six more games to play the remaining 10 days this month - including back to back home and home against Pittsburgh this weekend and a home and home against the Capitals bracketing Thanksgiving Day.  In addition to those four games against Division Rivals, the Islanders face the Philadelphia Flyers on Monday (11/24) and the Devils on Saturday the 29th. Truly this last week of November is a key time for the Islanders fortunes and a groups of tough games stacked together, the only break in it is that four of those six games will be home games for them.

The Penguins have also have six games over the last 10 days of November, the back to back home and home against the Islanders this weekend, followed by the Bruins in Boston on Monday and hosting the Maple Leafs on Wednesday before having another back to back home and home against the Carolina Hurricanes. The Pens last six games of November are evenly split between 3 home games and 3 away games though four of the six are played on back to back evenings.

Those are the guys in the Division ahead of the Capitals, but the Devils, Rangers Bruins, Senators, Maple Leafs, Panthers and even the Flyers are all likely to end the season on the bubble with the Capitals.  Looking at the rest of the Metropolitan Division Teams who are on or around the bubble and their schedule the rest of November here's how thing look.  The Rangers have 20 points in 19 games played as of tonight.  They have four more games in November: Montreal at MSG on Sunday, the Lightning on Wed. the 26th in Tampa, the Flyers in Philadelphia on the Friday 28th and then the Flyers again 24 hours later at MSG on Saturday the 29th.  So that's not going to be an easy road for the Blue Shirts.

The Devils start  three game road trip through Western Canada tonight in Edmonton, followed by a back to back tomorrow night in Calgary against the Flames before facing off against the Canucks in Vancouver on Tuesday on the 25th.  They then come back to Newark and play the Detroit Red Wings on Friday the 28th and then finish the month playing the Islanders in Uniondale on Saturday the 29th.  Another bubble team with five tough games to finish the second month of the 2014-15 season.

The Flyers have five more games to play in the month of November starting tonight against the Columbus Blue Jackets at home in Philly.  They then travel to Long Island to face the Islanders on Monday evening, then host the Red Wings at Wachovia Center on Wednesday the 26th before finish the month with a back to back/home and home against the Rangers on the 28th and 29th.

Columbus has been struggling recently but as they get healthier they too could threaten other bubble teams.  They have four more games in November, only one of which tomorrow against the Flyers is against a Metropolitan Division opponent. Their other games in November are against Winnipeg, Vancouver and Nashville.

So as you can see the final week of November features a lot of Metropolitan Division games for every team in the  division with the exception of Columbus plays at least as many games against Division rivals as they do against teams in other divisions during the rest of this month.  That might put a little separation between teams in the division (given either Pittsburgh or the Islanders could finish the month with 35+ points and on track for 110+ point seasons) but it could also bunch things up even more.  For the Capitals the key will be winning at least three out of four and not giving any "loser points" to the Islanders in those two games, assuming they can win them.  If the Caps continue to find their grove and capture all eight points available to them in November they'll also be on track for a 100+ point season, that would be a significant step off the "right side" of the bubble compared to where they were just two weeks ago.

All that said you have to play the games on the ice, one game at a time.  The only thing certain about all this is it's going to be an exciting final week of November for fans of NHL Teams in the Metropolitan Division.

For the Caps, next up are the Sabres tomorrow night at Verizon Center.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

11/15 A No Point Night In Saint Louis - Not The Start To A Three Game Road Trip Anyone Rocking the Red Was Hoping For ...

Another Caps Hockey Game, another disappointing slow start that ended in more disappointment.  The Caps rolled in to Saint Louis off a 1 - 0 loss the prior evening at Verizon Center.  They apparently decided that since New Jersey successfully beat them by slowing the pace of the game, they'd try and do the same thing against Saint Louis.  One could talk fancy stats or simple stats or "olde tyme hockey" or whatever you want and by every normal measure, especially the scoreboard, the bottom line is it didn't work. As the final seconds of the game wound down last night the scoreboard showed Blues 4 - Capitals 1.  

Blues goalie Brian Elliott wasn't all that great, and that makes the final score even tougher to take - the goalie wasn't unbeatable, but he didn't have to be.  Add to the fact the Capitals forwards didn't make it hard for Elliott to turn in a 0.960 SV% on the night the fact that in addition to having brain freeze similar to Holtby's faux paux on Friday night that Justin Peters turned in a SV% of just 0.882 last night and the final score of 4-1 can only be attributed to the Caps limiting the Blues to just 34 SOG.
  The Caps are now 0.500 on the season with 17 games (21%) of the 82 game season played so far.  That's not good enough, by any measure to be confident in this team's chances of returning to the playoffs.  They need to settle down, play the system much harder for 60:00 of every game and move things forward.  On the GM side of things, some things need to happen, and one of them is resign/extend Mike Green now not later.  A second is clear Cap space of guys who will never again be even close to what George McPhee signed them for - for example one should not be paying $4.5M of cap space for a guy who if/when he gets healthy is a third line center for your team or $2M for a guy who might sometime later this season be your #7 D-man... . A third thing is that between the GM and the coaches they need to facilitate some stability in the top three lines and let the players work out their issues as long as they play hard for 60:00 of every game.  The musical chairs on the lines isn't helping provide any of the needed spark IMO.  

I know last night was game 2 of a back to back but you know what, just like the Saint Louis Blues, I don't care, nor can the Capitals afford to care or think about that either.  Basically what this Capitals team needs to do is play the entire first 50:00 of every game with the same drive, speed and urgency like they seem to be playing the last 10:00. Last night they didn't do that and it cost them another two points.  Will they look inward and decide enough is enough during these next two days before facing the Phoenix oops Arizona Coyotes on Tuesday in Phoenix oops Glendale?  We can only hope and cheer for them to do so, at least we Caps fans can only do so.  In that vein I shout out:

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  LETS GO CAPS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

November 14th Devils 1 - Capitals 0 at Verizon Center, Look Ahead to Tonight's Game in Saint Louis

As has been well chronicled over at Japer's Rink and The Peerless Prognosticator, last night at Verizon Center we watched a game that ended, unfortunately in a "No Point" night for the Capitals.  That of course meant that this morning if you checked the NHL standings the Capitals are once again "on the wrong side of the bubble" with a mere 17 points in 16 games, fourth in the Metropolitan Division and a 4-5-1 record in their last 10 games.  So that's something I'd sum up as "unfortunate" .. unfortunate indeed as the Caps didn't play poorly last night, loosing 1-0 in regulation on a poorly considered chance taken by Braden Holtby on a night when otherwise he did more than what should have been required by him to secure two points for his team - notch a 0.964 SV%.

 It was a night when I hated being right.  Yesterday musing about the game, I figured that it might take something like  this, in fact I wrote:

"... or fail to play their game well a full sixty minutes, or Corey Schneider has a totally "lights out" night the Devils could win this game so the Caps cannot fail to play hard and smart for all sixty minutes."

In fact that's what happened last night, the Caps slowed their game to New Jersey's 33 1/3 RPM speed and the New jersey team defense and Corey Schneider had a "lights out night" as a result.  It really did only take one mistake and that was because the Caps let NJ dictate the pace of play and didn't score, not even on four power plays.  It hurts more because had the Caps won they'd be 5-4-1 in their last 10 and still on the "right side" of the bubble.  There's really  not much more to be said.  The team knows they needed to want it more and to have worked both smarter and harder against New Jersey.  The good news is the Caps don't have a lot of time to dwell on last night's game as they take on the Saint Louis in the first of a three game road trip tonight under the arch just across the Mississippi River.  The Blues are a red hot 9-1-0 in their last ten games and sit atop the Central Division with 23 points and 9 ROW.

The Peerless is calling for a 3-2 Caps victory.  Me I'm just hoping, hoping for a Caps 2 point night of any kind.  I do think the Caps could win but the Blues are rested after beating Nashville, 4-3 on Thursday.   I just don't see this being a low scoring affair though there's too much offensive talent on both sides of the ice.  The Caps need it more, I hope they want it more and continue to play well.

LETS GO CAPS!!!! 

What A Difference A Week Can Make and Game 16: Caps vs. Devils Tonight at Verizon Lookahead

Well fellow Caps fans it's been a week since my last post and for the Caps and we fans it's been a good week.  Our boys in Red have gone from dropping four in a Row to having won three in a row with a reasonable chance of getting that fourth two point night in a row tonight.  They've gone from having a below 0.500 record on the season to date and being on the outside looking in, to having an overall 0.566 record, 17 points and being on the right side of the bubble.  Granted not where they started the first 6 games of the season but right now the trend is our friend as can bee seen if one wants to look at the various "fancy stats" over at War On Ice. 

Tonight the Caps have a chance to once again make the vast majority of us back into hopeful believers as opposed to cautious skeptics.  Tonight they take on the New Jersey Devils for the second time this season, this is New Jersey's second visit to Verizon Center this season and last time the Capitals were rather rude hosts, handily beating the Devils 6 - 2 in Regulation on October 16th.  Tonight the Devils come into DC rested and confident having beaten the Minnesota Wild in their last game by a score of 3-1 on Tuesday Night at "The Rock" in Newark on the back of some excellent goaltending by Corey Schneider.  Both Washington and New Jersey are 5-5-1 in their last 10 games but the Caps are slightly hotter and are one standings point ahead of their Metropolitan Division Rival Devils with one game in hand having 17 points in 15 games played so far this season.  As a team the Capitals also have a positive goal differential of five goals versus the Devils who are -7 in that department.  Both teams play a puck possession game but at this point you have to give the talent differential to the Capitals and the Devils have a much older team in terms of average age.  Overall this is a game the Capitals should win, assuming they play a full sixty minutes and they play their system very well and very, very hard.  Additionally they should always keep their feet moving and stay out of the penalty box, if they do that they should draw a few penalties as they play the game at a much faster pace than the Devils usually do and if they execute in such a manner it will mean they are forcing the Devils to play the game at their pace and in their style instead of slowing their own game down to "Devil Speed."  For tonight's songs to sound like they have a "Capitals Beat" this game needs to be played at 45 - 78 RPM for all 60 minutes.  The Devils want to sing/play it at no greater than  33 1/3 speed.  Further the Caps should expect the Devils to come into the game hungry, and push very hard in the first period to make sure they don't get embossed like they did in the October 16th game and to take the Verizon Crowd out of the game early.

I belive the Caps are as hungry if not hungrier for a two point night than New Jersey.  So barring a lights out night by Corey Schneider or the Caps failing to play hard for some reason, I see this game being a 4 - 2 regulation win, with a final minute empty net goal by the Capitals.  If somehow New Jersey plays very poorly and gives the Caps more than 4 power plays then it could be a win by the Caps by greater than a two goal margin.

If however the Caps are looking past New Jersey or fail to play their game well a full sixty minutes, or Corey Schneider has a totally "lights out" night the Devils could win this game so the Caps cannot fail to play hard and smart for all sixty minutes.

Assuming I am correct and the Caps finish the night with 19 points and 7 ROW in 16 games the Caps will be on a solid 0.594 pace ~20% into the season and on pace for 35 ROW this season which last season was on the right side of the bubble but still on the bubble last April, so the Caps still need every point and likely will continue to do so for the remainder of the season.

Four key players and key points for New Jersey tonight: Jaromir Jagr, Corey Schneider; Mike Cammalleri, and Marek Zidlicky.  Also not to be overlooked is Patrik Elias.  You might notice of these five payers only the goaltender Schneider is under 30 and the second youngest Cammalleri is a recent off season pick up at 32 and until recent injuries has not been skating more than 15 minutes a game.  Schneider had a relatively inauspicious start to the season but in his last several games has put himself on track.  For the season to date he has a SV% of 0.904 and a GAA of 2.87. At 42, Jagr still seems ageless and leads the Devils in scoring and has really been their on ice leader in may other ways so far this season.  In this his 20th NHL season the future hall of famer has 3 goals and 9 assists so far this season and for some strange reason, pundits like Gord S don't seem to dwell on his current =/- (-2) like they do Ovechkin's nor have they harped on him as any sort of one dimensional player, etc even though he hasn't been nearly as productive or important to his teams since he departed Washington for the New York Rangers in the 2003 - 2004 season, go figure?  In any case he is a key guy for the Caps to make sure they shut down and while he may have slowed a quarter to a half stride over his 20 NHL seasons fastest, his hockey sense is second to none and his on ice presence is still incredibly noteworthy and effective.  Camalleri is currently in his 12th NHL season and is basically the Devils' "sniper"/finisher with 6 goals and 4 assists so far this season.  Some of the other Devils' usual offensive threats like Adam Henrique are out with injuries so the lion's share of offensive load goes to Cammallleri and Jagr right now, aided by 38 year old defenseman Zidlicky who has 3 goals and 6 assists for the Devils and is fourth leading scorer right behind the injured Henrique.  Centers Elias and Travis Zajac are important more from a faceoff, puck possession and distribution perspective in the Devils' current system.

Four key players and key points for your Washington Capitals tonight: Braden Holtby, Alexander Ovechkin, Eric Fehr, and Jay Beagle. Starting from the goal line out the key for Braden Holtby and the Caps in this game as all games this season is a system that limits the opposition to 30 or less SOG and a team defense anchored by a SV% of 0.92+ and that stat/final line of defense is Holtby or Peters.  Holtby needs to get more comfortable with staying patiently in net and not doing things like happy feet, high risk move to keep his head in the game.  Last game the Caps got away with a couple of "loose" moves and defensive plays by both Holtby and the blueline corps.  In tonight's game they cannot do that against the "experienced" (long in the tooth) New Jersey squad.  Any game involving the Capitals top four guys to watch means that either Alexander Ovechkin or Nicklas Backstrom will be on these lists.  For a game against a team like the Devils, leadership on both the offensive forecheck and keeping pressure on the Devils with O-Zone presence and Corsi For to me means of the Backstrom/Ovechkin pair I'm thinking a flying, fast power forward/wing is slightly more key than a solid game by our first line center, only slightly though.  I put Eric Fehr on this list as I still have concerns that Troy Brouwer will be somewhat hampered by the thumb injury he suffered last game so I'm looking for secondary scoring and a spark from a third line of Chimera-Fehr-Ward.  Fehr has been buzzing more and as long as he plays a hard on the puck game, I believe he'll be rewarded against the slower pace the Devils will want to play.  Of the second and third lines I look to Fehr to drive the pace and speed of the third line and I also think that as long as Burakovsky plays smart hockey like he did the last game against the Devils, he and Marcus Johannson should be able to execute smartly on the second line against the Devils.  Final key I have listed is Jay Beagle, it looks like Tom Wilson will still be out of the lineup tonight and Beagle will get another chance to play on the first line with Ovechkin and Backstrom.  He did well and was rewarded last game in this role, tonight the key is for him to again play within himself, make smart decisions and again play his assigned role playing alongside two of the League's elite forwards.  All of the above though ties to the Caps out playing and out "Fenwicking" the Devils so they score three or more goals and the team defense resulting in less than 30 SOG and a team SV% of 0.926+ - that is the top level recipe for success tonight, IMO.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!