Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Capitals 3 - Panthers 0, 10/18/2011 Brief Retrospective

Last night the Capitals hosted the Florida Panthers at Verizon Center and they beat them 3 - 0.

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Okay maybe that retrospective was a bit too brief ... but first let's review our top questions before the game:

1) "Will Tomas Fleischmann show up for the game or continue to be nearly invisible?"
"Flash" wasn't totally "invisible" but it wasn't a performance that made it self evident why he is the second highest paid member of the team.

2) "Will Ovi come alive and electrify us with something like a hat trick"
Captain Ovechkin had one assist and 4 hits and turned in an overall solid but unremarkable (for him) performance.

and 3) "Will Vokoun shut out his former team just one game after they put up big numbers?"
Yep, Tomas Vokoun got his first shutout of the season and his first shutout as a Washington Capital at the expense of his former team last night making 20 saves and earning the games first star.

Other quick hits -

* As slow as Ovi's start has been, Sasha Semin, Dennis Wideman, Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson and Jason Chimera have been pretty darn quick. Backstrom has 1 goal and 5 assists for 6 points in 5 games; Semin and Wideman each have 2 goals and 3 assists for 5 points MoJo has 3 goals and an assist and Chimera has 4 goals. Putting in into perspective both MoJo and Chimera are on a 60+ goal pace for the 82 game season. While obviously it's highly unlikely for them to maintain that pace, my point is we wanted/needed secondary scoring and with the three scoring lines the Capitals now have "we've" got it.

* So far this season, ice time is much more equitably managed and in the end that should mean the entire team is likely to stay healthier. Right now the ATOI leader is Mike Green but his ATOI is only 22:31 down from over 25:00 two years ago and 49th in the league so far this season, and "Game Over" is the only Capital in the top 60 in this statistical category. That means the Capitals are a much more "balanced" team and to me that means they are a tougher team to prepare for and play against than they were even just last season.

* This year's Capitals are a much, much more physical team than the Capitals of the last three seasons. Team hit leader Troy Brouwer is second in the league in "hits" with 24, as a team in five games so far this season the Capitals have "dished out" a total of 140 hits that's an average of 28 hits per game vice an average of 24 hits per game last season, that's a 16.7% increase. Also that increase in "toughness" is pretty evenly distributed throughout the entire Capitals' roster - for example, Jeff Schultz had a total of 53 hits in 72 games played last season, an average of 0.73 hits per game, so far this season he's credited with 4 hits in 5 games or .8 hits per game, a ~10% increase. Also anecdotally I think he's hitting people harder - I say that because you notice his hits more, this season I'm surprised he "only" has 4 hits and looking at last season's stats I'm surprised he had more than 40 hits. I think this also says the Capitals are a tougher team to play this season in this regard as well.

* Alexander Semin is indeed one of the biggest and best TWO WAY talents in the NHL today. That's all I'm sayin' and I'm just sayin' He's also really fun to watch play this game they call Ice Hockey. Last night his stat line was 1 goal, 1 assist, +2, 16:03 TOI in 18 shifts, 4 shots, 1 giveaway, and two take aways. He's really good; that's especially obvious when you compare his stat line to a less talented, but clearly NHL caliber player in a similar game. Take for example, oh say, somebody like Matt Bradley. Last night's stat line for Matt Bradley reads: 0 goals. 0 assists, 0 points, -1, 13:04 in 18 shifts, 1 attempt blocked, 1 hit and 1 takeaway. Both players earned their salaries last night but Semin clearly played with "heart" and was a far more impactful (is that a word) player on his 18 shifts. Again "just sayin'".

* Marcus Johansson clearly wants to make sure he gets a sweater EVERY night. He also has really shown that the wrap around "stuff" goal is not dead. Watching him score his third goal last night gave me flashbacks to how the Flyers' Bobby Clarke would often score "back in the day." While I'm talking number 90, the 28-90-22 line is "pretty fun" to watch and really good so far this season.

* This Vokoun guy the Caps picked up in the off season - I think he's going to be pretty good for them... actually i think he's a "beast" in a really, really good way.

Next up, the Philadelphia Flyers in Philly, tomorrow night.

LETS GO CAPS!!! Make it "6" okay?

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Heading Out to Verizon Center

Well in just a few short minutes I'll be off to Verizon Center to see the Caps vs. Panthers in their first of six contests this season. In their last game the Panther's offense came alive beating Tampa Bay 7-4. The Caps are now 4-0-0 and looking for "one for the thumb" and to take a franchise record for the start of the season. I am intrigued by the sub-plots - yes the rehash of the will Brads really apologize to Sasha or is he just saying that? etc. are NOT what I'm talking about.

I'm talking about Florida has 12 new/different players from last year and the Caps have Dennis Wideman and Tomas Vokoun who last year were Caps. The big question for me on the Florida side of things is "Will Tomas Fleischmann show up for the game or continue to be nearly invisible?" For the Caps I wonder "Will Ovi come alive and electrify us with something like a hat trick and will Vokoun shut out his former team just one game after they put up big numbers?

Tune in later tonight for the answers - same "bat time" same "bat channel"

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!

Monday, September 26, 2011

Preseason Game 4: Caps 3 - Blue Jackets 1: "Quick Hits"

Well tonight the Capitals and the Blue Jackets faced off at Verizon Center for the first game of the Preseason at Verizon Center. The Capitals won the game 3-1 and really controlled the game pretty much all night long. Quick hits/notes from the game:

- The three stars of the game announced were: 1) Mathieu Perreault (1 goal, 1 assist); 2) Chris Bourque (3 Assists) and 3) Cody Eakin (1 goal) but I'd put Michal Neuvirth down for "honorble mention" if for nothing else but a set of four - not, 1, 2, or 3 but 4 consecutive saves during the one flurry he faced.

- The only puck that got by Neuvy was in the third period when Patrick McNeill got out of position and Troy Brouwer gave Vinny Prospel too much time and space with a very "soft" back-check and ended up screening Neuvirth.

- Chris Bourque - sweet game, he showed his skillz in participating in all three goals. It wasn't quite last year's three goal preseason game performance by Matt Hendricks but it's probably enough to keep him around these parts a while longer.

- Both Bourque and Mathieu Perreault really played hard and showed they are both determined to make it hard for the coaching staff to send them "down to the A". They also are setting a great example for Cody Eakin and nipping at the heels of a couple of guys if I had to guess.

- The Capitals' second line of Semin-Johannson-Knuble played well during the first 15:00 or so of the first period but not so much the rest of the game. However if they could stay on track and pace like they were in the first period, they'll score some goals and put up some number.

- The first line of Ovechkin-Backstom-Brouwer looked pretty solid and played well.

- Jeff Schultz has had better games and one begins to wonder "what if........"

It's good to have hockey back, even if it was preseason.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Sunday, August 14, 2011

Two Hockey Musings On This Sunday In August ...

It's not all that easy for me to "muse" about hockey on a rainy, humid 80 degree August day in the Washington, DC Metro but hey that's sort of what I do. So today I have two hockey related musings - one about Scott Hannan signing a one year, one million dollar contract with the Calgary Flames and the other about the NHL and the Olympics.

First, I'd expect most readers of this blog know that earlier this week, the Calgary Flames signed Scott Hannan to a one year contract, for a mere $1M salary cap hit. So this got me to "a thinking" if the Capitals had done that, this season Hannan would be the second lowest paid member of their blue-line corps; that's right of the Capitals projected defense corps, only John Carlson with his entry level salary of $845.8K, makes less than Hannan will this coming season. So what do you think? Not that any of these are or would have been viable choices but hey Caps fans, would you rather have Scott Hannan for $1M even Cap Hit or: a) Tom Poti for $2.875M, b)Jeff Schultz for $2.75M, or even c)John Erskine for $1.5M? I'm going to "zero in" on the debate of Hannan vs. Schultz for three reasons:
i)Given Tom Poti is fighting to resume any career whatsoever after his season ending injuries last year, I just don't think debating about him vs. anyone is "good form." My only hope relative to Tom Poti and the 2011-2012 season is that he is well enough to return to play this season and then we can have this debate in October.
ii) John Erskine is well John Erskine and he brings so much more in the way of total grit to the Capitals that contrasting him to either Hannan or Schultz just doesn't seem fair or wise. If it were only about skating or sick-handling abilities, there's no doubt in my mind John Erskine would likely be making about 1/2 what he currently does. That said I'm a convert, to me, John Erskine is worth the $1.5M he makes, or at least he was last season.
iii) Contrasting Jeff Schultz with Scott Hannan just seems to make sense to me.

Sure there's a huge age difference but in terms of roles and styles, they are both stay at home D-Men who aren't out on the ice for hat they bring to the offensive end of the game. However, Schultz is 25 years old, will make $2.5M and have a Cap Hit of $2.75M this year. Last year "Sarge" had a reasonably unremarkable season finishing the regular season at +6 with just 1 goal, 9 assists, 12 PIM, 34 SOG, and just 53 hits in 72 games. In the playoffs, the 25 year old Calgary native played 9 games was +1, had NO offensive contributions, 6 PIM and 9 SOG. On the other hand, Hannan is 32 years old, has 12 NHL seasons under his belt and will make $1M and have a Cap Hit of $1M this year. Last year Hannan played a total of 78 games joining the Washington Capitals at the end of November from the Colorado Avalanche; over the course of the season he had a +4, 1 goal, 11 assists, 34 PIM, 56 SOG, and 84 hits. In the playoffs, he too appeared in all 9 games the Capitals had, was +1, had an assist, 2 PIM and 6 SOG. So when you compare Schultz and Hannan's performances last season, there's just not a lot of difference; and last season Schultz made $2.5M while Hannan made $4.5M. So looking at last season, Jeff Schultz was no doubt "a better buy" than Scott Hannan. Now looking forward to next season, Schultz will make 2.5X what Hannan will make.

One logically asks will Schultz be worth 2.5X what Hannan is this coming season? The simple truth is none of us know the answer to that question, so "ask me in June 2012"; however I will say it's possible. If Jeff Schultz, now age 25 has the same sort of season he had in 2009-2010, and continues that high level of play into and through the 2012 playoff's he will have fully earned his pay and will be worth a $2.75M Cap Hit. I have little doubt that Scott Hannan will be worth the $1M that Calgary will pay him this season, but he's hoping to do a lot more. That said, the bottom line in this debate is at 25 Schultz still has a lot of upside and at 32 Hannan is much more likely to have just a few more years of his playing career and they are likely to look a lot like last season. Schultz's real value lies in his potential. Potential that will be realized if "Mr. Nasty" can and does become a real no-kidding "shut down" defenseman; something that, in my opinion, can and will only happen if he gets more physical. Schultz is 6' 6" and 230#, he's a big guy, with huge reach, Right now he over-relies on his reach and doesn't use his large body enough. If Schultz would do two things: a) muscle up a little (5-12 more pounds of muscle) and b) improve his skating just a wee bit so he wouldn't worry about being out of position after he makes a hit so much; I'm pretty sure he could increase his number of hits by 50-100% (last season 53, 2009-2010: 66, 2008-2009: 53). If Schultz does those things, the $3M he'll make in the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 seasons under his current contract a real deal. If he doesn't then it's likely that Caps GMGM will likely regret giving him such a nice, long term deal. So in the end even though it wasn't an option anyway, I'm saying I'd pick Schultz over Hannan.

Second, over at Red Light District, they brought up the debate "Should the NHL Continue to Participate in the Olympics" again just yesterday. So I'm flabbergasted. Everyone whose been reading this blog for a while pretty much knows, I CANNOT even understand how this is even a debate. My view is simple and straightforward, Garry Bettman and the NHL Board of Governors are idiots if they decide to not allow the players to participate in the Olympics. Further while, I question Bettman's intelligence, often, I think the BOG has some smart guys on it and they are just positioning for a bargaining chip and to get some needed concessions, especially during Olympic Year scheduling. All that said, my bottom line on the matter is this, participation in the Olympics, is something the NHL shouldn't "play politics with." End of story, end of rant.

My countdown shows just 53 days until the Capitals season opener; I'm waiting for my season ticket package delivery of which is just around the corner. I really can't wait.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!