The Ins and Outs of the Washington Capitals Roster

Well we're past the second day of the free agent signing period, the draft is behind us and it's interesting to see how things are shaping up for the Caps as we look ahead to next season. Caps GM George McPhee made one great move so far and that was bringing vetran right winger Mike Knuble on board. The free agent pickup from the Flyers was something pretty much nobody saw coming. That said at 2 years and 5.6M this should be a solid good deal for both the Capitals and the 37 year old vetran right wing. Well here's my recap of the ins and outs of the roster and then I posit who I'd put on the "ice" if I were BB and the Caps had to play a game this weekend, to make things easier on myuself I assumed that any of the RFAs tendered qualifying offers were resigned.

Outs:

1) Viktor Kozlov: 2008/2009 Cap Hit: $2.5M
Thoughts/Comparative Value: As much as I liked Kozlov, to me the corresponding "In" - Mike Knuble is a definate upgrade and at just about the same price against the salary cap as Kozlov was last season. Further, Knuble's stats and numbers are better than Kozlov's were last season.

2) Sergei Federov: 2008/2009 Cap Hit: $4.0M
Thoughts/Comparative Value: I didn't see Federov agreeing to much lower a salary than $4M, and he didn't, plus he will now finish his career playing alongside his brother in his homeland. Further this is another "out" where I'm feeling pretty positive about what I think is the corresponding "in" - Brooks Laich on the second line as center. A lot of folks are worried about this including GMGM and Coach Boudreau, and they should be this upcoming season is another one where the expectations are for the Caps to go even further than they did last season. That's a lot to ask when our second highest paid returning forward is likely to no longer even be considered for top six minutes. If he's the replacement for Federov and the second line center Laich has big skates to fill, I'm willing to bet he can and does do a good job accomplishing that feat.

3) Sami Lepisto: 2008/2009 Salary:
Thoughts/Comparative Value: Does it matter? Lepisto played 7 games for the Caps during this past regular season, he had no goals, 4 assists, 6 penalty minutes and was -3. For the Hershey Bears he turned in a solid but not fantastic body of work. To my minds eye you'd have to point to one of the other Capitals prospect/developing defensemen as the trade off here. Given that over the past two seasons when he's been called up to Washington Lepisto has been inconsistent, I thought the move of sending him to Phoenix for a for a fifth-round draft choice in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft, rather than making him a qualifying offer was the right move. I also like several other prospects chances of making the big club's roster these days better than Sami's and that includes both Joe Finley as well as the more obvious choices John Carlson and Karl Alzner. Truth be told obviously for the Caps and Lepisto this was a make or break year and he didn't earn his way anywhere near a roster spot.

4) RFAs that did not recieve qualifying offers: Andrew Joudrey, Daren Machesney, Travis Morin and Sasha Pokulok.
Thoughts/Comparative Value: None of these were a surprise though after last season I'd think you'd have to say the Daren Machesney was the victim of a talent-laden goalie pipeline in the Caps System. The other thre all showed promise and flashes at one time or another and as a first rounder you'd have to class Pokulok as a disappointment at best, but none was a total surprise and the guys in the pipeline these four are making room for are all more worthy and better bets.



Ins:

1) Quintin Laing: 2008/2009 Salary: Estimated 2009/2010 Cap Hit Number: $500K
Thoughts/Comparative Value: Okay it's easy to forget that "Q" was GMGM's first free agent signing this season. After all he only spent one game this season in a Caps sweater before getting hurt. However, as a Hershey Bear he had a solid season and a solid playoffs including Calder Cup. Laing provides depth and insurance to both the Capitals and the Bears and though at age 30 he's not likely to ever be on anybody's Hall of Fame ballot, he's an inspirational player, who turns in a solid night's work every game in a manner that has made him a fan favorite.

2) Qualifying offers to Chris Bourque, Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon, Milan Jurcina, Shaone Morrisonn, Steve Pinizzotto, Jeff Schultz and Kyle Wilson.
Thoughts/Comparative Value:
Well first the only name on this list that some might not be very familiar with - Kyle Wilson: The 24 year old center was drafted in 2004 in the ninth round by the Minnesota Wild, he played college hockey at Colgate through 2005-2006, then he was signed by the San Antonio Rampage of the AHL in 2006, he split the 2006-2007 season between San Antonio and Hershey, and was signed as a free agent by Washington last summer. He's played 80 regular season games each of the last two seasons in Hershey. This past year he notched 28 goals and 30 assists for 58 points. He was +13 and had 31 penalty minutes on the season. He's a big (6-0", 200#) right shooting, center and right now you'd have to think he';s a much better bargain and has as much chance of playing 10 games for the Capitals this next season as Michael Nylander does.
The next least known guy on this list - Steve Pinizzotto: An undrafted, 24 year old, big right wing that the Caps signed to a two year entry level contract in March of 2007 while he was playing college hockey at RIT. Pinnizzotto is a 6'-1", 196# right handed winger who has split his past two season between South Carolina and Hershey. During that time he's shown good skills and has been continuing to dvelop his nose for the net while also being a sound two way player with grit. This past season he had a particularly good set of numbers during the Bears' Calder Cup run, in 21 AHL Playoff games, Pinnizzotto had 3 goals, 2 assists and was +5.
The other six (6) players are all well known to Caps Fans and all were "no brainers" for tendering at least a qualifying offer. As far as who of those six are likely to get some interest and offer sheets and who might push through to arbitration other than the obvious one - Shaone Morrisson, you'd also have to think that any of the other five, even Bourque could be of interest to other teams as well, though I can't see Bourque pushing things to and through arbitration.

3) Mike Knuble signed as a free agent for 2 years at $5.6M
Thoughts/Comparative Value: Thoughts? Awesome comes to mind. Comparative value though Knuble is 37, his numbers have been getting better each of the past several seasons and he comes with 12 seasons of NHL experience and a Stanley Cup. He's a great trade out for Viktor Kozlov and the Right Wing the Caps hoped Chris Clark would be when they signed his last contract. This is a no brainer by pretty much any measure. He'll be awesome on the first or second line and I'm thinking it's first line for him.

So that's where things stand as of this evening - Thursday July 2nd, the Caps are not yet 100% gelled for the season but right now I think the roster looks like this if you had to put a team on the ice for a July 4th game:

Foward Lines:
1) Ovechkin - Backstrom - Knuble
2) Semin - Laich - Fehr (or Clark)
3) Fleischmann - Nylander? (or Steckel) - Clark (or Fehr)
4) Gordon (or Bradley) - Gordon (or Steckel) - Bradley (or C-Bo)
Reserves: Jay Beagle, Kieth Aucoin, Quintin Laing or several other prospects .....

Defense Pairs:
Mike Green - John Erskine
Tom Poti - Milan Jurcina
Brian Pothier - Karl Alzner
Reserves: Jeff Schultz, Shoane Morrisson, John Carlson, Tyler Sloan ....

Goaltenders:
Jose Theodore, Seymeon Varlamov
Reserves: Michal Neuvirth, Braden Holtby ... though nobody has signed "Johnnie" yet either ..

At the risk of pointing out the obvious this lineup truly illustrates Nylander's redundancey at this point and if other prospects in the pipeline continue to develop he'll definately continue to be so. He is a clearly a reason that GMGM makes the statements about UFA signings that he's been quoted as making... Also if Nyls is worth $5M this coming season and some of the guys are getting what they are getting around the league this week what will Backstrom and Semin be worth if they finish out next season with the same sort of stats or better than they had this season?

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!

Another busy week down and how about those Caps?

So We had a busy week at ICx Technologies; we had a lot of activity going on five major pursuits - four that I'm working on and another that has a real good team chasing it. All in all, for what used to be a really quiet time in past years this summer is just full of activity and surprises. Of course as I say that beats the daylights out of the alternative, and the days are flying by.

Up in Kings Point, NY on Long Island at the USMMA, the Class of 2012 completed "Indoc" and classes started on Wednesday for the entire Regiment of Midshipman. Our son has the same professor I had for Calculus I, I suspect he'll do better than I did. When we hear from him, it's clear that Indoctrination and the transition to the fast paced academic calender Kings Point maintains has NOT gotten any easier in 30 years. I now get to see the Academy from 3 perspectives - my own two - Alumni and Parent and our son's student - it's weird on many levels. To make matters more confusing, on Tuesday Evening, I went to the Nationals - Phillies Game with 14 of my USMMA Class of 1982 Classmates. We had a great time, the furthest travellers came from Virginia Beach, Williamsburg and Chester , PA. We believe the 15 of us were the largest gathering of classmates since graduating, other than at Homecoming every five years at the Academy. If you haven't been out to Nationals Park, when you go you're in for a treat - the sight lines are "all good"; the stadium is just so well setup it's hard to describe. Now the Nats just need to get a good product on the field and it'll all come together for them like it did last season for the - you probably saw this one coming - Washington Capitals. Also it's great to see the redevelopment that the Ballpark and the relocation of the Department of Transportation Headquarters are having on that section of DC. As they used to say on the features pages of The Prelate at Cardinal Dougherty RC High School in Philadelphia "back in the day" - a good time was had by all. Chris's classmates in the USMMA Class of 2012 have great futures to look forward to judging by the conversations and catching up the 15 of us did while the Nats and Phillies played to a 2-0 victory by the boys from the City of Brotherly Love.

Well I can't go more than a week without thinking about how much I'm looking forward to the next season by the Caps. The real issue between now and the start of the next NHL Season for the Great Number 8 and his teammates is that the Capitals are very tight on Salary Cap space. In fact with their desired group of top seven defenseman they are likely $2M over the salary cap. of course currently Brian Pothier is projected to be on LTIR but even without his salary, if Karl Alzner were to start the season in a Capitals "sweater" and Jeff Schultz is the number 4/5 defenseman the Caps will be ~984K K over the salary cap; if the Caps leave Alzner in Hershey and have Sami Lepeisto and John Erskine in the line-up the Capitals will still be pretty much right up on top of the Salary Cap and Alzner will get some time to grow into the Caps systems in Hershey. Personally I'm rooting for Patrick McNeill as much as anybody and let's not forget Quintin Laing - I'm rooting for both Laing & McNeill when Training Camp opens at Kettler on September 20th, 2008.

Can't wait till next season ---- LETS GO CAPS!!!!!!

Caps lose to Isles 3-2 in OT; Probably Need to Play 0.674 Rest of Way to Make Playoffs

Tonight's game between the Caps and the Islanders ended up being a heart breaker for Caps fans like me. Olie Kolzig made a lot of key saves to keep the Caps in it and Alex Ovechkin's goal with the empty net (6 on 5) to tie it with under a minute left was cause for hope. Unfortunately, there were a lot of low points, the Caps were out shot 31-16 through three periods and OT and the final score didn't go their way. For their part, the Islanders played intensely all night earning the two points, and had far too many chances to put the Caps away long before Richard Park notched the OT winner.

Olie Kolzig kept the Caps in it however, he didn't have that "human wall night" the Caps needed in order to get two points while only putting 16 shots on net. In fact, on the Isles first goal and the game winner Kolzig couldn't be happy and probably would, as they say, like both those goals back. Speaking of the OT game winner by Park, it was a relatively soft goal and at the time their was an injured Mike Green down on the ice with blood coming from his ear. From a "slightly" biased Caps fan's perspective it would seem play should have been whistled dead, but that apparently is not the case. The Caps are now 4-4-2 so far in the month of December. With three more games against Eastern Conference opponents left before the New Year, the Caps really need 4 or 5 of the 6 available points if they are to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot. That's a tough pill to swallow in December when the season's end is 3+ months away. Even though the Caps are clearly resurgent since the coaching change and are a far better team than their overall record of 13-19-4 would suggest.


On the plus side tonight - the Caps continue to have confidence and never give up. Olie had a solid night and looked like a number one goalie should. Alex Semin seems like he's back in the swing of things and the second line looked pretty solid, though I didn't think last night was Nicklas Backstrom's best outing. Despite being out shot by an almost 2-1 margin the Caps stayed in the game quite well. The Defense pairings of Morrisonn-Green and Poti-Jurcina were very solid. Milan Jurcina had a very solid game and made sure he didn't get burned regardless who he was on the ice with, ending the night +1 while Tom Poti ended the evening +2. Morrisonn - Green didn't fare quite so well ending the evening -1 however both had over 23 minutes of ice time. Tom Poti and Quintin Laing's penalty killing continues to look solid both players along with Dave Srteckel and Shoanne Morrisonn were on the ice for over 2:00 of the Islanders three power plays, and the Caps penalty killing was 100%.


On the minus side there were also many items to be disappointed about. First the Caps got out shot 2-1 and their forechecking didn't look as good as it has since the coaching change. This is as much a compliment of the Islanders play if not more so then an indictment of the Caps forechecking. As I noted the Semin-Backstom combination still clearly needs time to mature and Ovie hasn't scored an "even strength goal" in the last two games (last night's goal occurred with 6-5, despite being statistically counted as an even strength goal. On the defensive pairing negatives, I hate being right with my negative vibes - it was doubly bad for the Caps when my negative waves AND dmg's are both correct on the same play, as was the case with the Islanders first goal. The Defensive pairing on the ice was Schultz - Erskine; Erskine didn't have a chance and Schultz was pinching before Miroslav Satan broke out and Schultz couldn't get back. Just like I feared with this pairing the result was not good for the Caps. Of course Satan then when lateral across the front of the net on a 1-0 breakaway and Olie's cross movement was slow so he made the first move and got beat. It was a pretty goal that capitalized (no pun intended) on two Caps weaknesses - Olie's lateral mobility and Erskine's skating. As a counter to the penalty killing which held the Islanders to 0-3; the Caps powerplay was also 0-3 and languishes in mediocrity with regard to results, despite the presence of so many solid young offensive forces. Another tough pill to swallow is the Caps overall offensive production - only one Cap, Alex Ovechkin, has more than 10 goals as the season's midpoint nears.

Alex Semin's goal that tied the game was bittersweet, but at the end of two period the Caps had been out shot 20-8 by the Islanders, and the boys in blue certainly seemed be dominant. Overall with a 0.903 save percentage for the game and a 0.950 during the first two periods with lots of action, it's hard to put the game or blame on Olie. The vaunted Caps offense needs to get rev'ed up. It sure seemed the Caps were trying too many long passes and at times were man-handled by the Islanders. During the second period, two other occasions where the Islanders just rode the opposing Caps off the puck. One of those occasions occurred when Jeff Schultz was holding the puck too long. It seemed the reason for this mistake was again grounded in the pairing with Erskine, who was on the ice at the time - it seemed clear Schultz was looking for a winger to come back and get the puck from him so he wouldn't need to pass it to Erskine. Erskine and his Old Time Hockey style are fun to watch, and at times energize the rest of the team, but he almost let his temper get the best of him and gave up a man advantage. That said the operative word in the prior sentence is almost - he didn't draw a penalty and the Caps got the man advantage when Park was called for boarding. Unfortunately the Caps power play did not convert.

The best thing the Caps could have done was come out for the third period and act like they had an all out 20 minute hockey game to play; since essentially that was the case. The third period certainly seemed different then the first two - the tempo of the game and the Caps control of the puck seemed different. Each team had 7 shots and scored one goal so it was a much more even period statistically then the first two. However the truth be told, depite seeming to control the play frm 8:00 into the period through 15:00 or 16:00 into the period, the Caps let the Isles score a go ahead goal at 17:54 and had to pull Olie so Ovechkin could score a tying goal at 19:05 to force overtime. With a +/- of -1 in 12:58 of ice time for John Erskine and a -2 in 20:12 of ice time for Jeff Schultz last night; it would seem that Steve Eminger would have a fair chance of playing some during the last three games in December.



The amazing thing to most observers is that with only 30 points and the midpoint of the season quickly approaching the Caps still don't have to play over 0.700 hockey to make the playoffs. The reason is that when you extrapolate the current performance of the Eastern Conference teams only 6 teams are clearly on track to gain 92 or more points. The final two spots are clearly still up for the taking by any of the remaining 9 teams in the division. LETS GO CAPS !!!! Oh and Merry Christmas to all.

Boudeau's Washington Capitals 7-4-0-1

Well the Caps are 7-4-0-1 since Bruce Boudreau took the helm as interim coach. Personally, I think the last two games are cause for hope. Another 10 games, or so, like this and Bruce Boudreau's "Interim" label may no longer be warranted or apply. This weekend the Caps lost a "good game" on Friday night, at home versus the Sabres, who certainly seem to have their number so far this year. Since the Sabres are playing pretty good hockey having gone 6-4 in their last ten, the Caps could have used that game as cause to relapse to the funk they were in prior to Thanksgiving. Instead, last night, the Washington skaters came out resilient and focused against the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are very tough at home with a home record of 11-4-2 so far this season.

The Caps played a hard fought game and got offense from their third and fourth lines as well as the defense corps to relieve some pressure on their stars and came away with a 3-2 victory at the end of regulation. To be sure the game was not without it's highs and lows but the statistics clearly show the Caps out shot and in several categories outplayed the Lightning. Those who watched the game saw the Caps do a superb job of bottling up the Lightning's formidable set of offensive weapons. In short, the Caps shrugged off the loss to the Sabres and went about the business of making sure they got two points from their division rival Lightning. For the month of December to date, the Caps are 5-2. Additionally, the last five games of November, Bruce Boudreau's first at the Caps helm, resulted in a 2-2-0-1. Are the Caps picking up steam? It's too early to tell but Caps fans have to really like what they are seeing so far. The team's scoring is coming from more than just Alexander Ovechkin. Since the coaching change, in addition to Ovechkin, 14 other Caps have tallied goals during the Caps' 12 games. Hershey Bears call-up Joe Motzko and Defenseman Mike Green both have games where they scored two goals. Young Defenseman Jeff Schultz had a three game scoring streak, and goals have also been tallied by Bears callup and penalty killer Quintin Laing as well as goals in two games including a very pretty game winner last night by Defenseman Brian Pothier. This diverse productivity has clearly made the Caps a much harder team to play; and it has helped their superstar slowly climb up to number two on the league's goal scorer list. Over the past 12 games, the Caps bumper crop of 2004 first round draft picks - Ovechkin, Green, Schultz - have shown they have all arrived. Even Shultz whose performance over the past two seasons has at times been erratic, seems to have steadied his performance and is as consistent as his +/- stat of +5 in 38 games with the Caps last season would indicate he should be. The Caps are showing the talent a team with 10 first round draft picks ought to be able to bring to bear on their opponents. In addition to the tireless work ethic instilled in them by their former coach, they appear to have now added the no excuses philosophy of their current bench leader. The combination seems to be working and the product on the ice is more fun to watch then ever.

Most importantly the Caps have now captured 15 of 24 possible points and are 4-1-0-1 in six games against Southeast Division opponents. In games against their division rivals the Caps have given 3 points and taken 9 - that's plus 6 on the field and continues to allow Caps fans hope for a playoff spot despite the fact their team remains tied for last in the league with 26 points. Welcome to the era of post lockout, salary cap imposed parity. The cause for hope is based on the fact that of the Caps remaining fifty games, they will face Southeast Division opponents sixteen times - at the current point capture ratio that will give them 24 of the additional 66 points, conventional wisdom says, they need to gain a playoff berth. That means they need to play .615 hockey in the other 34 games which is on or close to the pace they've been having so far under Boudreau. A tough road ahead - sure; do they need to play every game with "playoff intensity" - sure. But it is possible, and they sure seem more resilient and confident under Coach Boudreau then they did earlier this season when they stumbled. Of course step one will be getting out of the NHL's cellar. A great place to start would be marching into Joe Louis arena and figuring a way to get at least one point from the league leading Red Wings who are 7-1-2 in their last 10 and 13-2-1 at home so far this season. The Red Wings haven't lost a game outright in regulation since their 3-2 loss to the Predators at Nashville on November 22nd; and haven't lost at Joe Louis since a 5-3 loss to the Blackhawks on November 17th. A victory by the Caps would send a real signal to the rest of the league, they intend to return to the powerhouse they started the season's first three games like, and the rebuild is indeed over in Washington.

Never give up, never say die. Take no prisioners - no excuses. LETS GO CAPS!!!!