Caps Season So Far - Time To Panic? No, But Definately Time For Concern

 

Well Capitals fans here we are nine (9) games into the season and our Washington Capitals are continuing to "struggle" and are continuing their "slow start".  That is apparently the politically correct terms to describe what is going on when your team is in last place in their Conference and 29th out of 30 in the league; when your team has the worst goal differential in the league (-12) and as far as anyone knows or professes, your team is not "rebuilding." 

 Here's some interesting thoughts as the Capitals prepare to faceoff tonight at Verizon Center against the Toronto Maple Leafs for their tenth game of the season - a shortened season as we all know.  During a regular 82 game season each game is 1.23% of the season; during this 48 game season, each game is 2.08% of the season - or looked at another way 69% more of the season that a game in the 82 game season.  The last time the NHL played a 48 game season, 1994-95, the magic numbers to be in the top eight (8) teams in each conference were: 42 points in the Western Conference and 47 points in the Eastern Conference.  For a team like the Capitals, who so far, are playing 0.278 hockey the fact that in the last 48 game season to get to the playoffs did not require and over 0.500 record is encouraging.  The fact the NJ Devils "got off to a slow start" and won the Stanley Cup in 94-95 being taken as some solace as well.  It's been a quirky season, I know, an the Capitals have a new coach, again, I know.  However, that doesn't change the fact with so many three point games, I believe strongly, it's unlikely that a team gets into the playoffs this season with less than 48 points (0.500 hockey).  In fact right now in the Eastern Conference Carolina is in 8th place and the Rangers are in 9th place each with 8 points in eight games; while out West, the beleaguered Red Wings are in eighth place with 9 points in 8 games while the ninth (9th) place Predators also have 9 points in 8 games and the tenth place Wild have 9 points in nine games.

So what does the above mean for the Capitals.  Well if I'm right and it'll take 48 or 49 points to make the playoffs this year it means the Capitals have to really "step it up" and pretty much do so now.  After tonight's game in DC, the Capitals will have played 20% of their season - in a regular season that would mean they would have played 16 or 17 games; this year it means 10 games - no issues there.  But looking at where they are 5 points with 9 games played and where they'd like to make sure they are 49 or 50 points that means they need to garner 44 points in their remaining 39 games or an average of  1.13 points per game.  To make that all work the recent trend of "no point" games has to again become a thing of the past.  In perspective in 2009 - 2010 when the Capitals amassed 121 points and won the President's trophy, they averaged 1.47 points per game for the season.  In 2010 - 2011 when the Capitals won the Eastern Conference, they did so with 107 points and averaged 1.30 points per game across the entire season.  An average of 1.13 points per game is basically playing 0.565 hockey.  It may be cliche' but the Caps are either at or very close to the point where, every game truly matters, already in this shortened season.  So it's not time to panic - the fact the Capitals have 4 one gaol games in the 9 they've played means they are indeed getting close and hopefully the system will work.  The fact two out of those four one goal games are regulation losses is of course cause for concern.  The fact the Capitals have not generally played 60 continuous minutes of high tempo, solid hockey in many, if any of their games so far, is also cause for concern, as well. 

My concerns right now though center on special teams, and in particular the power play.  The penalty kill is seemingly coming around, but the power play not so much.  At the Penguins game it seemed to me the 1-3-1 was well played by the Capitals but easily defended by the Penguins, the amount of SOG generated by the Capitals during power plays so far this season seems woeful.  In recent years the Capitals had an excellent power play - just look at them from the 09-10 and 10-11 seasons.  The alignment was simpler and the execution much crisper. It seems of all the aspects of the game the Caps need to look closest at their powerplay.  Goaltending was a concern of mine until recently, when in my view Michal Neuvirth has emerged as a steadying influence and has been playing very well.  While the 24 year old "Nuevy" first outing of the year could have been better, his performance has gotten better every game since and his SV% is climbing up to where it needs to be.  The blue line hasn't been bad at all with a couple of pleasant surprises - not the least o which is that 32 year old John Erskine is more than capable of playing 20 good minutes every game and still bring all the grit and drive we as Capitals fans have come to expect and love.  John Carlson actually seemed to look a little more at ease with the new system during the Penguins game and his almost sheepish, embarrassed grin after his quirky goal was from my vantage point a good sign.  Mike Green is doing very well in the new system, and Karl Alzner seems to also be getting smoother with it.  I still worry about the load and expectations that seem to be getting place on Tomas Kundratek but expect that when Orlov and Hillen get healed and Erskine's suspension is over we'll see that lessened at least slightly.

Up front, the issue is obvious but again their seem to be signs of the positive there.  We seem to have, thankfully, left behind the idea of Ovechkin skating with 3rd and 4th liners as a "good idea" and I say - none to soon.  Brooks Laich was spotted skating at KCI recently.  Mike Ribero has been very good.  During the Penguins game, while Nicklas Backstrom did not score, he got a couple of good looks and an assist and seems to be picking up his production.  But for the Caps to do what they need to do the rest of this season the top six forwards need to start routinely putting up top six numbers.  It's really that simple, we know the talent level is there, I always assume with pro athletes the compete level is there.  So now it's up to the players and the coaching staff to home in on and focus on minor adjustments, or maybe simplify a few things until the others start to "click". 

Well that's enough of a rambling muse for the day.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Hockey Is Back ... Finally ... and Thankfully

It's been Eighty (83) days since my last post/rant on this blog.  I'm glad hockey is back, and I will be restarting more regular posts here, though I do not expect to make posts daily or even necessarily after every game.  I've resolved though to post/blog regularly on this blog at least twice weekly between now and the Stanley Cup finals.  I may end up posting more shorter blogs after a game or event during the season, however, I'm going to try and have something cogent and worthwhile to say at least twice a week here on my usual hockey musings and "fan-boy" stuff with regards to the Capitals here - probably every Tuesday and Thursday or Saturday weekly.  I've decided I've missed blogging, I enjoy it as a creative outlet.  I've also decided that since this blog has a following that is mainly hockey/NHL/Washington Capitals Centric, since that's been the main content in the 600+ blog posts over the past four years to just continue to keep this blog "hockey-centric".

I have another blog "In Peace and War" that was meant to be U.S. Merchant Mariner, and U.S. Merchant Marine Academy centric when I started it that I have benignly neglected for the sixteen months since I started it.  My plan with that blog is to generate and make a post on those subjects at least once a week (nominally on every Wednesday), I'll also be inviting other USMMA grads and Marine Industry friends and acquaintances to use the venue to post their thoughts and content, if they do not have access to better, more widely acknowledged current marine industry trade media (e.g. gCaptain, Maritime Executive, etc.)  Simply put, the title of the blog, which is the motto on the U.S. Merchant Mariner's flag is what has generally brought and generated regular traffic from search engines, etc so far, given I've only made ten (10) blog posts there in the seventy (70) weeks since the blog has been up.

Finally, I'll see how it goes over the next couple of weeks and how "back into" blogging I get over the next couple of weeks.  Since I started constraining my posts her on "Mark's Musings" to mainly NHL & Capitals items, I've begun to miss the ability to "muse" on other subjects relevant to what I think of as "typical middle aged guy" sorts of things and thoughts.  I'm "noodling" on the idea of trying to capture those thoughts and topics and put them on a blog that is centered on those sorts of things a different set of days twice a week.

The above is really just an set of background stuff in case you are a regular follower and have started to wonder what's going on with this blog as it's basically been dark (like the NHL season) since October.... Now as they say - On with the show.

CAPTAIN OVECHKIN IS BACK AND LIKELY BETTER THAN EVER ----

I don't know about you but following a lot of the message board chatter and blog post comments during the #Lockout, I certainly got tired of people a) taking sides in general, especially so many obviously uninformed and biased folks taking sides in general, and b) so, so many people somehow equating how, what and why players they liked and/or disliked did or said during the #Lockout to be seeds for rants by them against players they did not like.  In particular, and remember this is a FAN blog, not a Journalist's blog, so many @Ovi8 haters venting bile against my team - the Washington Capitals' Captain.  To those that just ranted, and ranted that they hoped Ovechkin would just go away and stay in Russia, after he said he might do that if the results of the negotiations ended up with his current contract being invalidated or otherwise affected, I say what planet do you really live on?  I say that for very simple rationale reasons, here they are:

1) If you were in the same situation Ovechkin was when he made those, even handed, and likely pretty unemotional, straight talking, genuine comments, wouldn't you have said the exact same thing?  Yes, every player in the NHL, even the "grinders" make lots more than the average upper middle income season ticket holder, let alone the average middle income fan.  However, the average career length of a player in the NHL is substantially less than pretty much any other profession, other than other professional athletes.  Further, any injury, even seemingly minor ones, that might slow them down even a quarter of a stride, etc. could be enough to mean they are no longer able to play the game at the exceptionally high level required to be competitive in the most talented, highest level/quality of play league in their sport. When that happens, for reasons that may, and often very well are, entirely outside of their control, their career earnings' potential is drastically reduced.  In other words, professional athletes, ALL of them, know the simple truth is, they need to make it while they can.  In Ovechkin's case, and the haters will hate and spew as much bile as they normally do for me saying so, I think it's even more justified for him to say what he said.  Here's why: i) his entry into the league was slowed by the last lockout and that, in my opinion, no doubt cost him money and took away from his time here in the NHL - at age just 27 years of age to have had your earnings ; ii) the contract he is playing under was negotiated and signed in the middle of this last CBA, and it's not a contract that seeks to "get around the rules" (e.g. no end of contract "tack on cheap years", no signing and signing bonusright befor the end of the current CBA, etc.)  He had every reason to believe the cntract would be honored for its full term.  Yetat the time he made that statment, things were looking 50/50 for it being otherwise.

2) Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, Weber, Kopitar, Richards, etc. - the stars of today's NHL - wether we admit it as fans or not - they are why we go to see games.  Sure there are die hard fans in every city but the stars and the amazing athleticism and moves they make when they play "the world's fastest major sport" are why 2/3rds or 20 of the 30 NHL teams basically sellout every game.  I mean sure I like and root, in a big, big way all "the grinders" etc. but I have season tickets because I want to see what sort of "sick" play that only four or five humans on the planet can even contemplate, let alone make, that I've come to expect @ovi8 make at virtually one out of two Capitals games I attend.  I expect the same can be said by sason ticket holding fans about their own team's star players in virtually very NHL city.  Without Ovechkin or Kovalchuk or Crosby or ...   the game wouldn't be as exciting or fun to watch.  Sure the game is bigger than any one player, even Gretzky says that, but to fail to admit the "water level" of the NHL wasn't lowered when a superstar leaves the NHL, is in my opinion intellectually dishonest.

3) Most people ranting about Ovchkin's commets - where were they coming from?  From what I could tell they just for their own reasons are indeed "Ovi haters".  They're out there.  Just like there are Crosby Haters and Ovi Lovers (like me) and Crosby Lovers and Malkin Lovers and Haters, and ... the list goes on.  There's nothing the guy could have said or done they wouldn't have commented negatively on.  And for those that talked about how Crosby's comments on Hamrlik were classier and more articulate, I say three things: i) get a grip and be real; ii) how many languages do you speak? and iii) most people sound a lot more professional and articulate when they converse in their first langague then a second langague; and iv) I think you probably really think the reason Crosby didn't go play in Europe is loyalty vice the truth which is that he couldn't easily get insured, and you're likely as naive as you are foolish.

Okay enough of that, other than taking a look at what and why there likely was a #Lockout and during a slow hockey week this coming coff season, this blog is jut going to be forward looking and all about hockey as it's being played on the ice for the rest of this NHL season.  I'm quite bullish about the Caps new head coach and the team that is coming back.  I truly can't wait for the home opener, of course it would be nice if we knew when that was.

In the meantime...

LETS GO CAPS!!!!