Another Week of the NHL Season Down and I Still Hate the Loser Point...

So hockey fans once again thanks to the loser gift point from Gary Bettman’s NHL twenty four (24) of the thirty teams (30) in the NHL are playing over 0.500 hockey this week while last week that number was a mere twenty one (21) teams.  In a sport that supposedly invented the overtime and shootout so that there is always a winner and always a looser, isn’t it ironic is that the only real losers are the teams that win and/or lose their games in regulation and split two vice three points?  Think about it while you look at this week’s power rankings for teams that are over 0.500 in their last ten games.  Here they are:

Rank      Team                     Last 10 Games   Streak                   Conference

 1)            Pittsburgh:           0.800     8-2-0        won 7                    East
 2)           Chicago:               0.800     8-2-0         won 1                   West
 3)           Anaheim:             0.800     7-1-2        won 5                    West
 4)           Montreal:            0.800     7-1-2        won 4                    East
 5)           Winnipeg:            0.750     7-2-1        won 2                    East
 6)           Boston:                0.750     7-2-1        won 1                    East
 7)           Carolina:              0.700     7-3-0        lost 1                     East
 8)           Columbus:           0.700     5-1-4        OT2                        West
 9)           Saint Louis:          0.600    6-4-0         won 2                   West
10)          Minnesota:         0.600     6-4-0        won 1                    West
11)          Washington:       0.600     6-4-0        won 1                    East
12)          Los Angeles:        0.600     6-4-0        lost 2                     West
13)          NY Islanders:       0.600     5-3-2        won 1                    East
14)          Detroit:                0.600     5-3-2        lost 1                     West
15)          Ottawa:               0.600     4-2-4        OT2                        East
16)          Calgary:               0.550     5-4-1        won 1                    West
17)          San Jose:             0.550     4-3-3        won 1                    West
18)          Philadelphia:      0.500     5-5-0        won 1                    East
19)          Phoenix:              0.500     5-5-0        lost 1                     West
20)          NY Rangers:        0.500     5-5-0        lost 2                     East
21)          Vancouver:         0.500     4-4-2        won 2                    West
22)          Edmonton:         0.500     4-4-2        won 2                    West
23)          Buffalo:               0.500     4-4-2        won 1                   East
24)          Dallas:                  0.500    4-4-2        OT1                        West.

So to me the good news in this week’s power rankings are: 1) at least no team playing over 0.500 hockey in their last ten games this week had less than four (4) outright (in regulation time) wins versus last week when X teams did so, ad 2) for the second week in a row the Washington Capitals have played 0.600 hockey which is likely what it may well take for them to make the playoffs.  The travesty of course is that of the 240 games that these twenty four teams contested in the last ten game span, 26 (10.8%) of the time they received a gift “loser” point; last week that number was 11.3% of the 230 games the teams that were over 0.500 played.  That means that in the standings this season it is likely to take 5 to 10 more points to make the playoffs than it did during the last 48 game season.  That’s why I say in either conference the way things now look, to even be on the bubble coming down the stretch (the last 10 days/5 games) your team will need to have played 0.550 over the prior 40+ games. 

You’ll also note that thanks to loser points five (5) teams, San Jose, Ottawa, Columbus, Detroit and the NY Islanders are all listed higher than they would likely be if every game were worth three points (three points for a regulation win; 2 points for an OT or SO win; and 1 point for an OT or SO loss.)  Enough with my continued jihad/rant about how it makes NO sense to me to give teams an EXTRA point for games that go beyond regulation time to be decided.

Another interesting thing of note as of this morning is that there are five teams – the three Beasts of the East (Montreal, Boston, and Pittsburgh) and the two Best of the West (Chicago and Anaheim) that are simply at least a head, if not heads and shoulders, above the rest of the league at this point.  While as of this AM Boston “only” has 39 points, they’ve only played 25 games so far this season and overall they have played 0.870 hockey.  Additionally the Bruins have captured 20 of those points on the road and their goal differential is +22 (.88 goals per game and best in the East) and their average goals against of 2.16/game is second best in the league while their average goals for of 3.04 goals/game is more than respectable.  Boston though trailing Montreal and Pittsburgh for the Conference Championship is certainly poised right now for an excellent season and a deep run in the playoffs barring a meltdown or some totally unforeseeable issue.  As noted the same seems to be in the cards for the Penguins and the Canadiens both of whom also have played 0.714 and 0.740 hockey so far this season.  The only real intrigue in the Eastern Conference in my mind is who of these three will be the 1, 2, and 4 seeds for the first round.  That’s a big difference from two weeks ago thanks to Pittsburgh being on a 7 game winning streak right now.  However, both Montreal and Boston have been playing 0.700 or better hockey pretty steadily since early in the season.  Once you look elsewhere in the Eastern Conference from these three teams though you find 8 other teams who are within 5 points of each other, two of whom (Carolina and Winnipeg) who are playing 0.700+ hockey in their last ten games.  If the current trends continue another two weeks things could again look much different as to who the stronger and weaker teams are in the conference and in addition to the eight clustered teams, depending on how things continue to go for New Jersey, Ottawa, Toronto, the Rangers, the Islanders and the Flyers, the Capitals may or may not find themselves also among the cluster of teams on the rather large Eastern Conference “bubble”.

Out West, what else is there to say other than Chicago’s season record thus far of 0.870 is pretty other worldly?  In fact the only thing that has kept them from running away with the entire conference is that Anaheim’s 0.827 start to the season is “pretty” good too, eh?  Looking beyond these two teams we see twelve teams that are within 6 points (3 games) of each other with an average of approximately 21 games to play.  It’s unlikely that any other team in the Conference will win either the Central or the Pacific Division but everything else is clearly “up for grabs” with regard to the Western Conference seeding; and who can forget that last season Lord Stanley’s Cup was won by the eighth seeded team in the Western Conference.   Right now though I am very “high” on Anaheim’s prospects to go deep into the playoffs and if they make the finals, I would not bet against them to take the Cup.  They just looked very intensely good during their current five game winning streak.  Besides who can’t get behind Selanne winning another Cup at age 42?  Besides of course hockey fans of pretty much every other team in the Western Conference right now.

Now let’s talk Washington Capitals hockey over the last week.  In the last week’s games the Capitals dropped from sixth (6^th) to eleventh (11^th) in my power rankings this week.  The reasons for the drop are X-fold.  1) The Capitals dropped off from playing 0.700 hockey to 0.600 hockey.  2) They Capitals traded a three (3) game winning streak and 3-1-0 record for a 1-3-0 record this week.  3)  Last week there were seven (7) teams including the Capitals playing 0.700 or better hockey, this week there are eight (8) teams playing 0.700 or better hockey and the Capitals are not one of them.  4) In the three games in the first week of March the Caps scored 14 goals and allowed only 4 to be scored against them; in the four games they played in the second week of the month they scored only 6 goals and allowed 15 to be scored against them.  As such the Capitals find themselves in twelfth place in the Eastern Conference, seven (7) points out of a playoff spot and eight (8) points behind SE Division leader Carolina with 22 games left to play in their season. 

Can the Capitals make up three to four games with just 22 left to play if they keep playing 0.600 hockey?  That’s really the question and the answer is, it’s possible but it won’t be easy, especially if the two of teams they need most to catch – Winnipeg and Carolina – continue to play 0.700 plus hockey. 

The seven teams that could most impact whether the Capitals make the playoffs right now are likely Winnipeg, Ottawa, New Jersey, Toronto, Philadelphia, the Rangers and the Islanders.  For the remainder of the season the Capitals have 22 games to play.  Of those 22 games they play those seven teams ten times – including three more games against Winnipeg.  The Capitals also have five games remaining against the three “Beasts of the East” including two against the Bruins and two more games against the Canadiens.  The “good” news for the Capitals looking at the remaining 22 games this regular season is they play Southeastern Division rivals eight (8) out of those 22 games, and so far this season the Capitals are doing well against their division rivals (7-3-0).  If they continue to play 0.700 hockey against the rest of the division, especially Carolina and Winnipeg, they should climb in the division.  Making up the four (4) games they trail the Hurricanes though will require some help by Carolina’s other remaining opponents though as otherwise the runway is simply not long enough to get past the Hurricanes in my opinion.  The three games remaining against Winnipeg are simply huge for the Capitals and the fact two of them are rare back to backs in “The Peg” won’t make it easy for the Caps either.  Over the next week, including the current in process game against the Bruins will likely determine whether the Caps will remain in a position to possibly make the playoffs.  Unfortunately as I type this the Caps trail the Bruins 2-1 at early in the second period at TD Garden but hey last time these two teams met the Caps trailed at the end of the first period and the Capitals haven’t played poorly so I’ll remain the eternal optimist.

Why do I rail against the “free”/”gift” loser point?  It’s simple it’s hurt the Capitals and teams like them much more often than it’s helped them.  For example so far this season the Capitals have only benefited from the policy/rule one time out of twenty six games (3.8%) while other teams like Montreal, Ottawa, New Jersey and Boston have all benefited from the rule considerably more.  Ottawa 22.2%; New Jersey 21.4%; Montreal 14.8% and Boston 12%.  The fact that because it truly is a gift point to the loser instead of a point that a team takes from the other team if they extend the game past regulation it’s not really at all equitable in how it might affect the standings.

Okay that’s about all I’ve got for now so back to game …

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Digging Out of The Deep Hole and What Are Reasonable Expectations for the 2013 Capitals Season?

Well Caps Fans as of this date – March 8^th, 2013 the Capitals are two games shy of the mid-point of the shortened 48 game season that is the 2012-13 (really just 2013) NHL Regular season.  Thanks to a 10-5-0 record since the first (1^st) of February, the Capitals have almost recovered to an overall respectable record after a January that ended 1-5-1.  As of this morning, the Capitals have an overall record for the 22 games they’ve played so far of 10-11-1 (21 points/ 0.477 overall), more important run they’ve gone 7-3-0 in their last 10 games or 8-3-0 in their last 11 games depending on who and what you want to compare and talk about.  The Capitals have not lost consecutive games since February 23^rd when they lost to the Devils by one goal (3-2), after losing to the Rangers 2-1 two nights prior.  They’ve not lost a game by a margin of more than one goal since losing to Pittsburgh 5-1 on February 7^th.

Why do I point all these good things out?  Well because if the Capitals manage to get three or four of the four possible points available to them in their next two games, they will have recovered from an absolutely horrible start to this lockout shortened season.  That’s quite a feat considering they will have done so while instituting new systems and making large changes to their make-up while starting the season with a new first year NHL head coach – yes I know Adam Oates is a Hockey Hall of Famer, but he’s also a first year head coach in the NHL.  That’s a pretty big deal.  Now also consider this if the Capitals win at least three out of the four available points this weekend they will be at least 0.500 on the season at the halfway mark and they will have amassed at least a 6-3-1 record in their last ten games as well as a record of either 4-0-1 or 5-0 in their prior five games and a record of at least 10-6-1 since February 1^st.  Better yet they will NOT be in a deep hole that will need to be dug out during the second half of the season to make the playoffs.

In fact the Capitals are/ will be poised to make a great run and that’s where I think they are likely to be.  Why do I say that?  Well right now, thanks to the thing I hate most in the NHL today – the loser point – 23 out of 30 teams have/are playing 0.500 or better hockey in their last 10 games and that means during this second half of the lockout shortened season something has got to give.  Especially when you realize that after this weekend basically every team in the NHL will have to play 24 games in 7 ½ weeks or more precisely 55 days.  That’s an average pace of 1 game every 2.25 games – that’s pretty intense and overall team health, as well as other factors like who you have left to play, etc. are all key.  Also where your team is mentally as well as physically as this second half of the season sets going will come into play.  Looking at the teams in the NHL who have 0.500 or better records in their last 10 games as of this morning I rank the Capitals at 6^th in my own personal version of “power rankings:

Rank      Team                     Last 10 Games   Streak
 1)           Chicago:              1.000  10-0-0       won 11
 2)           Anaheim:            0.800   7-1-2         won 1
 3)           Boston:                0.750   7-2-1        won 1
 4)           Montreal:            0.750   6-1-3        won 1
 5)           Pittsburgh:          0.700   7-3-0        won 3
 6)           Washington:      0.700   7-3-0        won 3
 7)           Los Angeles:       0.700   7-3-0        lost 1
 8)           NY Rangers:        0.600   5-3-2         won 4
 9)           Detroit:                0.600   5-3-2        won 2
10)          Winnipeg:           0.600   6-4-0        won 1
11)          Toronto:              0.600   6-4-0        lost 1
12)          Ottawa:                0.600   5-3-2        lost 1
13)          Dallas:                   0.550   5-4-1        won 2
14)          Calgary:                0.550   5-4-1        won 2
15)          St. Louis               0.550   5-4-1        won 1
16)          Phoenix:              0.550   5-4-1        lost 2
17)          Minnesota:         0.550   5-4-1        lost 1
18)          Philadelphia:      0.500   5-5-0        lost 2
19)          Carolina:              0.500   5-5-0        lost 1
20)          Columbus:          0.500   4-4-2        won 3
21)          NY Islanders:      0.500   4-4-2        OT 1
22)          San Jose:             0.500   4-4-2        lost 1
23)          Vancouver:         0.500   3-3-4         OT 2.

So right now I’m pretty “high” on the Capitals and I have them in the 6^th spot largely on the solid record and pace they’ve had over the past 10 games as well as the fact that since 2/1/2013 they’ve played 0.667 hockey.

So now you have to ask yourself - what if this is as good as it gets?  What is the “this” I’m talking about – well it’s winning 2 out of 3 on average the rest of the way to the end of the regular season is “as good as it gets”?  What would that mean?  Well what?  WHAT would that mean?  Would the Capitals make the playoffs?

My answer is probably; also it’s entirely possible if not probable if the Capitals play 0.667 or better hockey “the rest of the way” they will win the Southeastern Division.  Basically if the Caps play 0.667 hockey the last 24 games of the season they will pick up 4 games/8 points on any team that plays 0.500 hockey.  Right now Carolina leads the Southeast with 27 points in 23 games played (0.587 overall) but they are 5-5-0 in their last ten games and their starting goaltender – Cam Ward – is likely out the rest of or at least the majority of the rest of the season.  So for me it’s hard to see Carolina playing much better if at all better than 0.500 hockey the rest of the season.  So again if the Caps play 0.667 for the final 24 games while the Hurricanes play 0.500 the Capitals will finish the season at least 2 points in front of Carolina. 

That leaves us to compare the likely finishes of the other three Southeast Division rivals: Winnipeg, Tampa Bay and Florida.  Florida as we saw last night is currently pretty decimated by injuries and they are 0.350 over their last ten games; additionally the Caps currently have 2 games in hand on the Panthers.  It’s hard to see how the Panthers can finish this season making the playoffs or playing over 0.425 across the 48 games season right now.  In fact right now it seems to me the Panthers likely finish the season with between 38 and 44 points total.  Perhaps the best thing about the remainder of their season for Panther fans is they only have to face the Capitals once more and when they do in Sunrise on April 6^th it’s unlikely the series will continue its current trend and the Capitals probably won’t score 8 goals.  Tampa Bay is also well under 0.500 with a 3-7-0 record in their last ten games and a current “streak” of 1 loss and an overall season record of 10-13-1 and 21 points.  Like Florida, their season is already ½ over.  It’s hard for me to understand how a team with so much talent, especially fire power, that in this offseason made significant investments in their blue-line, and overall for the season a +7 goal differential, can have such a poor record their last ten games.  Then you look at the underlying data and faces and you see they started the season on fire (January 5-1-0), but since 2/1/2013 they’ve gone 5-12-1.  Their defense has been as porous as their offense has been prolific.  Since February 1^st while they’ve played 0.306 hockey they’ve scored 53 and allowed 60 goals.  Basically Tampa Bay needs their blueliners to play much better and they need a reliable goaltender.  I say that from looking at the numbers and from watching them when they’ve played the Capitals. Tampa Bay has an awesome power play and their forwards still can forecheck and backcheck with the best teams in the league.  That said this year doesn’t seem to be the year.  Even if Steve Yzerman picks up a goaltender, their blueline corps is still not playing well as a unit and that isn’t likely to be fixed overnight.  For that reason, it’s hard to see Tampa Bay playing better than 0.500 hockey the rest of the season or finishing with more than 45 points. 

That leaves one worry for the Capitals – if they continue to play 0.667 or better – the Winnipeg Jets.  Let me say this, I think the Capitals should worry about Winnipeg.  The Jets are 6-4-0 in their last ten games; they have a2 point/1 game lead over the Capitals in the standings – the one game the Caps have in hand on the Jets.  Other than Toby Enstrom, the Jets are looking pretty healthy going into the second half and they are playing well.  They play Florida tonight in Sunrise and the Devils on Sunday in Newark.  It’s very likely that after Sunday they will be at have at least 25 points in 25 games – 0.500 overall.  Basically what I’m saying here is the Caps and the Jets are likely to wake up Monday morning in a footrace with each other that will continue the remainder of the season.  If that’s the case and everything else holds true with regard to my thoughts as how big an negative impact Cam Ward’s absence has on the Hurricanes, then the answer to the question of who wins the Southeast Division is who of the Jets and the Capitals has a record of over 0.650 and by how much the second half of the season.  Given the pace of the second half of the season a couple of interesting things to note here: 1) during the second half of the season the Capitals face the Jets three times – twice in Winnipeg (back to back on 3/21 & 22 – another oddity thanks to the quirks of post-lockout scheduling) and a final time on Tuesday April 23^rd at Verizon center in what will be the Jet’s 47^th and the Capitals 46^th game of the season.  The Jets finish their season against the Canadiens at home on Thursday April 25^th. 2) Because of the quirks of the shortened season the Jets finish their regular season a little earlier than most teams and they also still have 6 game home-stand between April 6^th and April 20^th.  That’s a long stretch of home cooking and it’s unlikely the Jets will continue their subpar (0.400) play at home at MTS Center the remainder of the season. 3) The Capitals longest home or away stretch the remainder of the season is a four (4) game road trip from March 19^th through March 24^th and includes those back to back games at “the Peg.”  The Capitals can do themselves a LOT of good if they have a good road trip, win the full 8 point differential available with Winnipeg in those games and improve their subpar (currently 0.350) road record significantly for the remainder of the season, especially on that four game road trip.   So look this the blog of a Capitals fan and the facts are right now the Caps are playing slightly better than the Jets, also I still think the Caps are the stronger team of the two; my forecast/prognostication is the Caps take the Southeast Division with between 54 and 60 points and the Jets make the playoffs in 7^th or 8^th place in the East with between 51 and 54 points.
So while the second half of the Capitals season technically starts on Monday, I feel like it really starts now and I’m bullish on the prospects.  One things for sure though we cannot be confident about making the playoffs this season for a long time from now.  Even if the Capitals continue to basically play 0.650 – 0.700+ hockey the rest of the way, it will be over a month plus – likely 6 weeks (if ever this season) until they and we fans have any “breathing room at all between making and not making the post season.  That’s because in the Eastern Conference at the halfway mark of this shortened season, 6^th place Ottawa is 3-1/2 games/7 points ahead of the Capitals and the only team in the top 8 with a less than 0.500 record in their last ten games is New Jersey with a 2-6-2 record is New Jersey who can’t wait till Marty Brodeur’s back is better.  If that doesn’t happen soon New Jersey might fall off the “back of the bubble” but I’m not counting on it.
Okay next up the Islanders tomorrow at Nassau Coliseum followed by the Rangers on Sunday here at Verizon Center.  More on those games later – I personally can’t wait to see the Caps tussle with the Rangers on Sunday and I’m looking forward to a solid road win on Long Island tomorrow as well.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Mid-Week Hockey Musings Including "In Defense of Alexander Semin"....

Wow - well hope and good thoughts continue to emanate from Verizon Center and KCI after a 3-0 shutout of Southeast Division leading Carolina last night and that's a good thing in my Capitals Fan Centric world or maybe more properly in my world which this time of year is usually Capitals Fan Centric. My musings today on hockey are realism and fact versus perception though so I must remember that the Capitals still need to basically play 0.600 hockey the rest of the way this season to be reasonably sure they make the playoffs come April 27th and even with this second in a row regulation win over a Division leading team they are still 5-5-0 (0.500) in their last 10 games. That of course means tonight's game in Philadelphia against our traditional rival Flyers is as important as ever and could be looked back on come April 28th as a turning point one way or another either way.

I try not to be overly dramatic on these things, I'm just a simple hockey fan, blogging my own personal thoughts and opinions here after all. I'm a middle aged guy who loves his regular day job and has other avocations and interests in addition to following the Capitals, NHL and pro sports in general. I don't want to grow up to be a journalist or statistician or anything like that but I do really, really enjoy seeing the best in the world perform and compete against each other game in game out; I've blogged before about this and the reason I'm so passionate about following the NHL is from what I can tell pro hockey players are the athletes who keep it most real, and are most approachable and the nicest of them all. In addition to playing a sport that for me is absolutely the most fun to watch either in HD on TV or in person. Why this attestation you ask? Well because of the stuff I'm going to write about that will follow today. Approachability, etc. aside though, I firmly believe that professional athletes at the highest levels are special talents and not like most of us. They can't be and achieve the level of capability in their games without a higher compete level, etc. than we generally approach, anything we do in life, regardless of their physical gifts or talent levels. Both of which also have to be there in that top 1/10th of 1% level to eve make it as "a grinder" etc. To me the prior statement isn't opinion, it's fact. One only has to look at a guy who "almost made it" and see his or her talent levels, etc. and compare them to we typical beer leaguers, etc. Do we know a lot about a particular sport, etc. compared to someone who hasn't or didn't play "the game" sure, probably. Do we know and understand "the game" to the level it takes someone to inherently understand and live the game eve to make it in the AHL - I don't think so. And what's that mean to make it in the NHL - well it simply means you have to have all that and more and to do that it means whether you're a fourth line grinder or a first line talent you are special - talent and physical ability level; work ethic level; and knowledge and understanding "vision, etc." - really in every way. Put it simply there are over 7,000,000,000 (billion) people on this planet today; ~1,500 own NHL contracts and roster spots today - that's 0.00002%. No matter how you look at that - that's special. It's also something I think we fans overlook and forget when we hear comments by them about their peers. They aren't talking about whether or not compared with mere mortals or even top tier players in the lesser leagues such as the AHL, KHL, etc. are like this or that. They are talking about their perceptions, etc. of a peer who is playing and being paid to compete against them at the top 0.00002% level of a sport is like. My point is that in the past I've commented that one of the things I don't like about Sidney Crosby is how plain vanilla and non-controversial 99.9999% of what comes out of his mouth is - after this past week's furor over Troy Brouwer's comments about Alexander Semin and all the reaction to it - I will probably never feel or think such thoughts again - even about Sidney Crosby.

Before I go on let me say this - Troy Brouwer and every other current NHL player, former teammate or otherwise is truly entitled to and likely has an opinion about the other 1499 players around with NHL contracts. No argument there. Also I love that Brouwer is having a great season and playing well - I want him to continue to do so and I think he will do so. As you will see from the notes that follow, I am and always have been a fan of Alexander Semin and I will continue to be so. I also think it was time for him to move on for both himself and the Capitals last summer. I think his play, etc. this season will prove that I am right and he'll do better than ever in Carolina. As a Caps fan, I wish he'd do that on a team outside the SE Division but hey, the Caps could have had him if we wanted him and this (letting him go) was probably the right move.

All that said when twitter and other media blew up last week after Brouwer's comments once again, IMO, we saw emotions run high ad statements based on emotion and perception vice fact, statistics and data running amok, in my opinion. So here goes - here's my factual statements and data "in defense of Alexander Semin" as opposed or in some case, in direct response to many of the most common thoughts tweeted that I think are just not based in reality and let me say this, if you doubt whether perception is or can become reality when it's all said and done  - ask yourself how Zach Parise exited this summer with a long term $12M/year deal while Semin who has better numbers - all around - is playing on a one year $7M/deal (again) this season? I'm not saying that Parise isn't worth his $12M - you know how I know he is? Because that's what he's getting paid - that's a fact - and it' simple, someone whose job is to decide whether or not Zach Parise is worth $12M decided he was and is writing those checks today. In the world we live in something is worth what someone will actually pay for it - not what the current owner might think its worth before he/she tries to "sell it" etc. That's how our world works, so in answer to the question that many Caps fans last week made comments on - Alexander Semin is for sure worth $7M/season. The factual data proves he is - for the last three seasons he's been making that and he's been doing so on one year deals; so at any point in time if he wasn't worth $7M, he wouldn't have been paid it the following season. Now let's look at the market comparables and Semin's numbers to understand why and how Semin has been able to command $7M/season "on the open market" each of the last three seasons.

In Defense of Alexander Semin:

Here's the data I collected that I thought was/is interesting looking at a pretty broad array of top NHL forward contracts as comparables to Alexander Semin.

Semin (L/RW)     $7M     G         A         P                G/G     P/G

2011-12                           21         33        54             0.273   0.701
2010-11                           28         26        54             0.431   0.831
2009-10                           40         44        84             0.548   1.151
2008-09                           34         45        79             0.548   1.274
2007-08                           24         16        42             0.413   0.667
2006-07                          38         35        73              0.494   0.948
2003-04                          10           12        22            0.192   0.423
Career              486GP                                             0.414   0.868

 Other Top NHL Forwards Making Similar Salaries (career numbers/game) to Semin:

  1) S. Crosby (C)            $7.5M            453GP          0.512   1.406
  2) E. Malkin (C)            $9M               445GP          0.476   1.231
  3) A. Ovechkin (L/RW) $9M               570GP           0.609   1.216
  4) J. Thorton (C)            $7.0M          1092GP           0.300   1.001
  5) I. Kovalchuk (R/LW)$11M             798GP           0.518   1.005
  6) S. Stamkos (C/W)      $8.0M            343GP          0.560   1.044
  7) Z. Parise (LW)           $12M             519GP           0.387   0.813
  8) E. Staal (C/LW)         $8.4M**        659GP           0.393   0.900
  9) V. Lecavalier (C)       $10M            1016GP          0.373   0.845
10) M. Richards (C)         $8.4M             543GP          0.285   0.744
11) R. Nash (R/LW)         $7.6M             688GP           0.424   0.813
12) M. Gaborik (L/RW)   $7.5M             739GP          0.448   0.890
13) M. Cammallieri (W/C) $7.0M          576GP          0.351   0.759
14) J. Spezza (C)              $8.0M             611GP           0.373   1.016
15) J. Iginla (RW)            $7.0M**       1205GP           0.431   0.901
16) T. Vanak (L/RW)      $6.4M            566GP            0.428   0.837
17) M. StLouis (R/LW)   $5.5M**         950GP            0.344   0.922
18) M. Hossa (RW)         $7.9M             997GP           0.427   0.923
19) P. Kane (RW/C)        $6.0M             418GP           0.325   0.615
20) H. Zetterberg (C/LW)$7.75M**     687GP            0.376   0.945

 Additional Semin statistics: 0.959 PIM/Game; Career +/- = +74 (+0.154/game)

 And just for grins (again Career Numbers and current salaries):
T. Brouwer (RW)                    $2.35M        337GP    0.223   0.439 (-14) Also:  (0.724PIM/Game)
M. Bradley (RW)                    UFA            675GP     0.087   0.221
D. Steckel (C)                         $1.10M        394GP     0.081   0.183.

 Additional information about the data: Source - TSN.COM and CapGeek.com. All numbers except career +/- is limited to NHL regular season data on TSN.COM through 2/26/2013.  In order to look at the whole what about "Semin is a washout/no show in the playoffs" assertion I did also look at EVERY one of Semin and the 20 comparables above and compare their G/G and Pts/Gm in playoffs games versus their reular season career numbers.  That data shows two things 1) the playoffs are indeed different and lower scoring/tighter played and 2) only four players on the list have significantly better numbers in either G/G or Pts/Gm in their career in the playoffs vs. regular season numbers.  The four "big game/playoff" guys are highlighted by a double asterik ** next to their annual salary numbers:  Eric Staal; Jerome Iginla; Marty StLouis; and Henrik Zetterberg.  Everyone else is closeto but slightly under their career norms for their playoff appearances but some like Rick Nash clearly do not have a stastically significant data set to mke any sort of judgemetn on and that's the biggest reason I didn't include it in the numbers for comparable comparisons.

So where should we begin looking at the data/statistics and numbers – which is what agents and GM’s do when they negotiate and make the decisions of what to pay for a player to decide “Is Alexander Semin worth $7M?”. Sure, intangible stuff like the perception material is used I’m sure to try and bolster a case one way or another and for sure we know from Jim Rutherford’s comments about the deal he negotiated that brought Semin to Raleigh it had something to do with why Semin is currently on a one year deal in Carolina vice a 3 year or so deal he was apparently seeking from teams.  Further I’ve kept this mainly to the basic data and numbers since in order to better understand so called “fancy statistics” you really have to look very closely at them and explore them and I think this defense is getting long winded enough as it is.  That said in pure pay for performance terms looking at the pay for productivity information of Semin vs. 20 other elite forwards in the NHL – and to get more than $5M/season you need to be “elite” Semin seems to be on par with his statistical peers.  Certainly his salary is not outside the statistical norms when looking at $/ goals or points per game. For a wing to be looked at as a goal scorer and a reliable offensive producer that justifies $5+M/season I believe this data points to two things/thresholds that need to be met or exceeded – a likelihood of achieving or exceeding 0.400 goals/game and/or a likelihood of achieving or exceeding 0.750 points per game.  Semin easily meets both of those thresholds.  Now why $7M instead of a number closer to $5M?  Well that’s where two things I think come into and came into play – 1) Semin’s preference for a shorter deal vice a lower salary and longer term – he’s consistently shown a willingness to trade term for money now.  (Perhaps that’s the hockey playing son reflecting something he learned growing up the son of a successful CFO (e.g time/value of money and that at the end of a day, especially when as a professional athlete the length of time you can achieve maximum earnings can be fleeting – “a bird in the hand is probably worth two in the bush+…2)  The second factor is Semin’s career numbers show when looking at his best season: 2008-09 and 2009-2010, he can significantly outperform his statistical means in both G/G and Pts/G and when he does he begins to approach numbers that are indeed league leading.  It’s simply the price a team has to pay for the difference of having someone who can reliably score 30G and 60Pts in a season and one who in addition to that productivity has the upside of and clear potential of scoring 40G and 80 points.  It’s really no different than the premium the Rangers had to pay to sign either Gaborik or Nash or the Blackhawks pay Hossa.   Now about “intangibles” and such things where fact needs to be separated from fiction, there’s really only one negative frequently mentioned when talking about Semin that the data/statistics bear out and that’s the number of minor penalties he takes vs. the ones he draws.   As an elite, scoring player Semin’s 0.959 Minor Penalty Minutes/Game is significantly higher than many of the other players on this list and because f that no matter how many penalties he draws the delta will pale in comparison to pretty much every other  players on this list.  Now what about the impression he gets lazy or is a little soft relative to playing through injuries in the middle of the season – well the average number of games played and appeared in per season just doesn’t bear that assertion out.

 Why this defense of Alexander Semin?  Well I continually defend against any of this “enigma stuff” when it’s hurled at European and especially Russian players.  I do so because I simply think about what it must be like to be a 20 something person living and working in a foreign land under a microscope.  Further, Russians like Americans and Canadians grow up in a land where they can literally drive for hours and even days and not have to speak a foreign tongue.  Coming to the US or Canada to live and work is very intimidating and has to wreak havoc on these young men emotionally, especially while they are trying to break into and maintain careers as professional athletes.  I think the whole “enigma” hullabaloo is exactly that and it’s exacerbated by the fans and media to have something to write about.  No more – no less.  Further, in most cases the data bears things out.  Forget Semin, the fact that from time to time the press says similar types of things about Malkin – a two time Hart Trophy winner with all universe statistics is probably a better thing to point to about the horse hockey aspects of it.  I started this by saying that I agree that peers like Brouwer, Bradley, and Steckel are all clearly entitled to their opinions and to voice them if they so desire re: Semin as a teammate.  That said when Brouwer arrived, the Capitals were in transition and his time as a teammate of Semin was brief – 22 games vs the 18 games Semin’s current Carolina teammates have with him.  Here’s what two of Semin’s current teammates are saying about the intangibles per a recent article in the less than Semin loving Washington Times:

“Behind the back, through the legs,” Corvo said. “That’s why he makes the big bucks. He makes the plays that other guys just don’t think of.”

Semin’s ability to make difficult plays look easy has never been questioned. But even the elements of Semin’s game that have come under fire aren’t ones the Hurricanes are concerned about. “I think he’s competed hard every practice and every game for us. He continues to prove people wrong,” Eric Staal said. “I’ve got nothing but good things to say about him.”

I don’t know why some of his former teammates feel the need to comment on Semin, I’ll conjecture they believe if they had his talent they’d make more of it, because they clearly seem to have said, they think they have a better work ethic, and they didn't appreiate the inconsistant work ethic they felt Semin approached the game with while they were teammates. My reaction is it’s life not grade school and frankly it’s professional sports – the whole “work ethic” thing and make sure you show up every night and are accountable thing is, in my view overhyped, overblown and misunderstood by we fans and lay people. I’m not saying it’s not important – it is. I AM saying there is NO WAY, no matter how talented you are that you get to and stay in the top 0.00002% of your profession without doing that exact thing – working hard and holding yourself accountable – pretty much every minute of the season How any individual player does that is going to be very personal and clearly different for someone from a different cultural background. So it’s really a comparison that one member of the top 0.00002% is making to another member of the top 0.00002%. I think if you/we are not part of that club, you'll (we’ll) probably misunderstand the context, motive and even the meaning of the statement. For that reason, I’m now admitting I understand why Sidney Crosby is probably smart to say nothing controversial in pretty much every interview he ever does. It doesn't make for interesting articles or stories but it's probably the smartest thing one player can do when especially when they are one of the leagues clear top ten and asked about another player. If for some reason Troy Brouwer, David Steckel or Matt Bradley ever asked me my advice on the topic, I’d suggest they just politely respond with non-controversial statements like I wish him well but when we play his team I’m certainly hoping we match up well against him and continue to keep him off the scoreboard. I mean if John Carlson can get the quote right, I’m sure everyone else on the team can as well.



I think I’ve rambled on enough on this topic and I doubt I’ll ever write another word on it unless somehow Carolina wins the Stanley Cup this year and Alexander Semin is a big reason they do so. I mean at that point it’ll be worth talking about what a great thing the move was for both Semin and the Hurricanes, until then Semin is really “just” another top NHL forward that plays against the Washington Capitals and whose style of play and talent level I respect and enjoy watching.



The one other reason I wrote this defense is that I truly don’t get why fans at Verizon Center would boo him. He’s said nothing negative about his time here and he clearly, from the data and statistics perspective earned the money he was paid while playing here. I mean it’s not like he’s Jagr who the Caps paid for multiple years to play for the New York Rangers for crying out loud. So for that reason I just think boo'ing Semin and reviling him in any way is silly.



Now about tonight’s game: I’m with Peerless – tight game; Caps Win 3-2…
LETS GO CAPS!!!

Small Reasons For Hope Continue After Caps Go 2-2-0 Over Last Ten Days But...

Okay Caps fans here's a dose of reality, the Caps are indeed playing better, at least in my view and I'm not just saying that because of yesterday's 5-1 win over the New Jersey Devils. I look back over the Caps last four games where they went 2-2-0 beating the SE Division leading Tampa Bay in Tampa; losing to the New York Rangers by one goal at MSG; and splitting two against a very solid and pretty hot New Jersey team at Verizon Center. Those three teams are all very solid teams and top teams so playing 0.500 hockey and playing them all very tight and tough, except for yesterday's 5-1 win by the Caps over the Devils has to be a reason for some hope.

However, the dose of reality is that 0.500 hockey - what the Caps have played over their past 10 games and over the past ten days is probably just not good enough. Looking at the last shortened season, a 48 game season without a third "loser’s point" available, it took 47 points to make the playoffs in the East (Rangers - 47) and 42 points to make the playoffs in the West (San Jose and Dallas). Because of the changes to the game and the implementation of the "looser" point or less pejoratively, the implementation of three point OT/SO games, I project it will take at least 48 points and possibly 50 points to make the playoffs in either conference this season. If you look at the standings right now the eight/ninth place team in either conference are basically at the 0.500 level - which will be a 48 point season and I think it bears out my projection. The season is now basically 35+% complete for every team in the league and that's certainly enough data to project the likely minimum point total likely required to make the playoffs. Another easy projection is how crowded and large "the bubble" will be at the end of the season - it's very unlikely the point spread between the 6th or 7th place team in each conference and the 13th or 14th team at the end of the season won't be more than six (6) points either. The Western Conference will likely be even tighter than the Eastern but if the Caps pick up their pace as we Caps fans hope and they need to do the spread between 7th and 12th almost can't be more than six points at the end of the season.

So as I say, that means you want to be on pace for 50 or more points at the end of this 48 game season come the last week of April. It's why last evening when Alexander Ovechkin was interviewed on the NHLN Arena Cam was dead nuts on when he said it's all about getting every possible point in every game for the Capitals now. The Caps have 13 points in 17 games and they'll likely need 50 in 48 come April 27th. To do that the Caps need to play 0.598 hockey or more accurately capture 59.8% of the points available to them in their remaining 31 games. Can the Caps do it, well if the play almost every game or every game like they played yesterday, there's clearly the possibility of the Caps doing it.

 
But let’s also be realistic as of this morning looking at every team in the league and their play in the last ten games and there are only six teams in the Eastern Conference who have played better than 0.600 hockey in their last 10 games and only six teams in the Western Conference who have played better than 0.600 hockey in their last 10 games.  My point is – it won’t be easy, the compressed schedule makes stringing winning streaks together harder than ever.  I like how the Caps are and have been playing these past two weeks and the issue they are dealing with is not the 5-5-0 mark they’ve attained so far in February.  The challenge the Caps have to deal with is recovering from the hole they found themselves in at the end of January after their 1-5-1 start.  With just 31 games left and at least three games to make up on the 7^th and 8^th place teams in the Conference or the SE Division leading Lightning and Hurricanes, it’s just not going to be an easy task.  However, at least if the Caps continue playing as they have been in their last four games they’ll have a chance at winning every game no matter who they play and watching them will continue to be awesome fun for we Caps fans.

 Next up is a “four point” game against division rival Carolina on Tuesday – this should be another good game.  The Hurricanes have lost their last three games and are four points ahead of the Capitals after dropping their third game in a row yesterday to Tampa Bay 5-3.  Carolina plays the Islanders in Uniondale, NY today before traveling to DC on Monday for Tuesday Night’s game.  The Caps truly need the points more and Tuesday’s game will be the first of five meetings between these two division rivals this season.  Truth be told as much as possible the Caps need all ten available points against Carolina and as always, Cam Ward and the hard working Hurricanes will work really hard to try and keep the Capitals from getting any of them.

LET’S GO CAPS!!!!!