Tonight's Matchup and Foe - The Florida Panthers

Tonight two NHL Southeast Division foes meet at Washington's Verizon Center, aka "The Phone Booth" (too bad we aren't in Brooklyn so it could be "Da Foone Boot" eh?). When the Washington Capitals host the Florida Panthers tonight, it will be the number one team in the division taking on the second place team in the division. The Capitals come into the game with 70 points, an overall record of 33-16-4 (0.660), a home record of 21-4-1, and a 6-3-1 record in their last ten games. The Panthers come in to the game with 58 points, an overall record of 25-18-8 (0.569), an away record of 12-12-3, and a 6-2-2 record in their last ten games. If the season ended today, both teams would be in the playoffs, Washington firmly in second place in the Eastern Conference and Florida holding precariously onto the eight and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, just one point ahead of the Carolina Hurricanes and Pittsburgh Penguins. As far as stakes for the game go, tonight the Capitals are looking to stay ahead of the New Jersey Devils who take on the Los Angeles Kings at Prudential Center in Newark for second place in the East and stay on pace with or gain two points on Boston who take on Philadelphia this afternoon. Meanwhile, Florida is looking to increase their lead on Carolina who plays tonight in Arizona against Phoenix, and Pittsburgh who is idle tonight. Florida also has a chance to make up some ground on Buffalo, who plays Ottawa in the second of back to back games tonight having beat Montreal 3-2 last night, and Philadelphia, if the Flyers and Senators win tonight. Florida is three points behind both the Sabres and Flyers. Yes .. it is that time of year again - the push for the playoffs, the time of year when each game really starts to matter. Right now in the Eastern Conference, the Capitals, Devils and Canadeans (and too a lesser extent, the Bruins) are fighting for seeding and home ice advantage in the first and second rounds of the playoffs. The Panthers, Flyers, Sabres, Hurricanes, Penguins, and to a lesser extent are six teams fighting for the final four playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs, Lightning, Thrashers and Islanders are playing for respectability and pride since even though they are not mathematically "out of it" they all need substantially better records than they have had over the past two months to make the playoffs. So with the stage set how do the key match ups between the Panthers and Caps look tonight?

There are some really hot players on both the Caps and Panthers right now. The match ups between the two teams will depend on how those key players perform. Additionally, the overall match up between each squad's "grinders" will be key, especially for the Capitals. If the Capitals need any extra motivation, they need only look to the idea of preserving and extending the best home ice record in the Eastern Conference, but the fact they are playing a team they will face five times in the final nine weeks of the season and three times in the next three weeks, may well be the best motivator. The defensive-minded Panthers are one of three East teams without a 40-point scorer, so a key to their success or failure tonight will be their goaltending and their ability to slow the high powered Washington Offense. The Capitals have four players who already have more than 40 points and two others who are at 31 points, though Viktor Kozlov is currently day to day and will probably not be dressed for tonight's game. The Caps high octane offense include Alexander Ovechkin who leads the league in goals scored and Mike Green who leads all defensemen in goals scored. As for further motivation, Florida is one of the few teams to have won a game against the Caps at Verizon Center this season; Florida won 5-3 in the nation's capital on Dec. 2, a result that remains the Capitals' only regulation loss to an East team at the Verizon Center.

Key Matchups:

In Goal: Theodore/Neuvirth vs. Vokoun/Anderson

For the Caps Jose Theodore will be in net backed up by rookie Michal Neuvirth, who has yet to play a minute in the NHL due to injuries to Brent Johnson and Simeon Varlamov. Theodore will have a heavy workload over the next two months, with backup Brent Johnson slated to have hip surgery next week. Though Theo is five goals against versus Los Angeles matched a season "high", he is still playing quite well overall with a 11-3-1 record and a 2.21 GAA in his previous 15 starts. The twenty year old Neuvirth is the eighth goalie to suit up for a game for the Caps this season. The Panthers' Thomas Vokun is one of the hottest goalies in the league right now, he is coming of his 15th victory of the year. The Panthers snapped the New York Islanders' four-game winning streak with a 3-2 victory on Thursday where Vokoun continued his strong play, making 20 saves to move to 7-2-2 with a 2.15 goals-against average since the beginning of January. While Vokoun will be the likely starter for the Panthers, Florida backup Craig Anderson is also available, ready and playing well this season. With a 10-4-5 record and three shutouts in 23 starts this season, Anderson is a guy who can also be counted on to make the Capitals' forward lines night hard work. Rating goalie match ups is always a "dicey" thing this time of year, especially when looking at and prognosticating about the likely performances of what amounts to three pretty hot, talented guys and a very talented "kid" with something to prove. That said call this one for the Panthers.

Defense:

Earlier this week, the Caps recalled rookie first round draft pick Karl Alzner and John Erskine will be a healthy scratch tonight according to Tarik El-Bashir of the Washington Post. The biggest defenseman match up of course is Mike Green vs. Jay Boumeester, both are two of the most talented defensemen in the league today. Comparing them to each other is pretty tough though, they play very different games and are very different guys. Green is a 6-1, 205 pound skating defenseman who is freewheeling player who hits sparingly and whose key defensive play is rooted in his speed and stick work at both ends of the ice. He is recently being talked about as a potential Norris Trophy candidate as well and he has been fairly hot with 8 points in his last three game splayed. Boumeester is a 6-4, 212 pound solid, more traditional defenseman who plays tough hockey and, though not flashy, has solid offensive skills. His talent has made him a two time all-star in his five NHL seasons. The next match up would be the Panthers Bryan McCabe vs. the Caps Tom Poti. The 33 year old McCabe has four more years left on a relatively rich contract, is the Panthers' highest paid defenseman. On paper McCabe is the Panthers offensive minded defenseman, however his productivity over the past three seasons have not matched the levels of his earlier career and as was displayed during his 19 goal 2005-2006 season with Toronto. The 31 year old Poti has three years left on what now looks like a very good deal for the Caps. He is a solid minute muncher, has proven capable of quarterbacking the power play when neither green nor Federov are available, and has been solid on the penalty kill for the Caps. At a $3.5M price tag, Poti routinely matches up well against higher paid, flashier names such as McCabe for the Capitals and balances the frenetic play of Green, Ovechkin and the other Capital "Young Guns" on one shift with a more deliberate, calmer, controlled play when he is one the ice. The rest of each pack is solid on both sides with an edge to the Panthers that counterbalances the advantage the Caps have when looking at the top two match ups. Call this facet of the match up a draw.

Forwards:

It's not as simple as it looks to just say from the statistics that clearly favor the Capitals. The two teams play very different games. If the Caps play their game, aggressive, forechecking and talented disciplined short passes to break out of their zone so they don't fall victim of a clogged neutral zone and 4-1 trap, they will win these match ups decidedly. If they don't, it'll be December 2nd all over again. Given the Caps had a let down on Thursday against the Kings and they want to make a statement to a team they will face five times before the end of the season, it's probably a safe bet the Caps will work hard to make sure that doesn't happen. The key to this match up probably is Vokoun/Anderson - the Caps forwards need to expect the Panthers' goaltenders to come up big often and not get frustrated. In addition to their usual play, they will need traffic in front. As much Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Semin's play needs to be big; Laich, Fehr, Bradley, Fleischmann, and Nylander will need to generate traffic in front to ensure the Panthers' netminders are vulnerable. The key for the Caps forwards will be to NOT get frustrated and stay on their game plan. The Panthers forwards need to play the game they play so well,clog the neutral zone and look for the Caps to get frustrated and impatient and then pounce on their mistakes. A few big saves by Theodore should have an even greater negative impact on the Panthers since the FloridaCats don't take nearly as many shots on goal as the Capitals do in a normal game. Assume the Capitals come out, stay to their game plan and execute and this match up goes decidedly to the Caps.

All things about this game says unless Vokoun or Anderson steals this one for Florida it's:

Caps 4 - Panthers 2. Time to Rock the Red is nearing.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!!!!!!

Just How Good Can the Caps Do This Season?

So before we get to the meat and potatoes of today's post a quick look around the limited portion of the hockey blogsphere that I frequent (something I haven't had virtually any time to do for the past two weeks while I toiled away here at ICx Technologies both in Northern Va and in Ottawa).

• First it would be inconceivable not to mention the awesome move that former Cap Richard Zednick used to score his 7th goal of the season last night. To use an "Ovechkinism" it is sick! (and that of course means really, really good.)
• Second, what about that...the Capitals recalled Karl Alzner today. Unfortunately, Viktor Kozlov's groin tweak looks like it'll keep him off the ice a while longer as he hasn't been on the ice since the end of the first period Tuesday against the Devils. Of course the other bad news that dropped yesterday was that Brent Johnson needs hip surgery, a really tough thing to happen to a really nice guy in a contract year. That's why Michal Neuvirth was on the bench backing up Jose Theodore last night.
• Pepper over at "The Red Skate" appears to be suggesting that taking an occasional loss in stride is the proper perspective. That's probably an intelligent perspective to have as when one surveys the information below, losses to opponents by the Capitals so far this season are indeed something that has only been an occasional occurrence.
• Capitals Kremlin makes a point about the productivity, as well as the issues that "hubris" and "over cuteness" of "The Young Guns" last night can create. However, in his failure to point out the four LA Kings who notched five goals, on breakaways or uncleared rebounds, in addition to the great goaltending by Jonathon Quick, doesn't give the Kings their due. The Kings won last nights game as much or more than the Capitals lost it. They took advantage of the openings the Caps gave them and during the first two periods, manufactured a few of their own. A close review of the tape of the game by several Caps skaters will point to weaknesses that need to be watched and remedied in order to ensure the Caps make a run deep into the playoffs this year. Over the course of a seven game series, bad habits become noted weaknesses that NHL level players prey on.
• Peerless's review of last night's game is, as usual dead nuts on, the flavor of which can best be captured in this short excerpt: "That was pretty much the recipe for success for the Los Angeles Kings as they parted the red-jerseyed Capitals often for breaks down the middle of the ice for scores and scoring chances, then held on for dear life in the final seconds in a 5-4 defeat of Washington last night."
• If you haven't heard, "Joe B" now has a blog and he makes some interesting post game points about the loss to the Kings. Joe notes that it seemed like the Kings were trying to go glove side high on Theo a lot. It seemed to me watching on TV that at least during the second period, Theo seemed to be either starting with his glove low or dropping it pretty quickly as he went down into his butterfly.
• Puckdaddy looks at the logic and illogic of a return to the Rangers by Sean Avery.
• Mirtle once again looks at the march to the magic "90 point" number for the playoffs. Candidly other than the Capitals, the Florida Panthers look pretty good for a second Southeast Division team in the playoffs if they keep the pedal to the metal. The Caps have two games against the Cats this month including "next up." Carolina needs to turn it up a notch if they are to get to the projected 91 points needed, but how about the fact that the Penguins are a "bubble team" who would have predicted that one at the start of the season?
• Japer's Rink looks to add to the fighting controversy discussions of late.

And now back to our regularly scheduled programming....

In order to figure "how good the Caps do this year," we have to look at just how they've been doing so far this season. The Caps have been consistently good this season and went from "good" in October and November to "almost fantastic" in December and dropped back to "very good" in January. The month by month results looked like this:


October: 5-3-1 (11 points, 0.611)
November: 8-5-2 (18 points, 0.600)
December: 11-3-0 (22 points, 0.786)
January: 7-4-1 (15 points, 0.682)


Overall the Caps have gone 31-15-4 for 66 points and played 0.660 hockey for the first four months of this season. Right now the Caps are 33-16-4 with 70 points in 53 games this season. They are on pace for a 108 point season if they maintain the 0.660 average pace they've been on overall this season. If they play a little better than the 0.682 pace they had in January they could easily reach a 112 points. Putting a 108 - 112 point season into perspective, last season the Canadeans won the Eastern Conference with 104 points and only the San Jose Sharks and the Detroit Red Wings had more points in the Western Conference with 108 and 115 points respectively. In the 2006-2007 season the Buffalo Sabres won the East with 113 points and the New Jersey Devils came in second with 107 points, while over in the West the Red Wings and the Anaheim Ducks had 113 and 110 points respectively. So to make it simple, this year's Caps team is really, really good overall and playing better now then they did during the first two months of the season.


For the remainder of February, the Caps have 10 more games to play; six home games and four away; nine against Eastern Conference foes and one against a Western Conference opponent (Colorado at Verizon Center on February 20.) They play the Florida Panthers twice once home and once away and the Tampa Bay Lightening once; however six of the remaining 10 games this month are against teams that made the playoffs last season. During the month of March, the Caps will play 13 games (12 against Eastern Conference foes, six home games and 7 away games). When the season wraps up in April, the Caps play six games, all against Eastern Conference foes with three at home and then three away. So far this season, the Caps are 26-7-4 against Eastern Conference opponents, that's 0.757 hockey. Of the Caps remaining twenty nine (29) games, twenty seven (27) are against other Eastern Conference teams. If the Caps stay on or close to their current track record against Eastern Conference foes, they will capture between 110 and 114 points. That's basically why you've been feeling well... - it's ALL good.

The biggest question mark for the Capitals right now that Brent Johnson needs surgery has to be "What should we do about a second goaltender?" If you feel like you're hearing the theme song from "Jaws" just when you though it was safe to get back into the water, you're probably not alone.

Anyway what are your thoughts? other than: LETS GO CAPS!!!

Bummer .... Kings 5, Caps 4

Too little too late? Not really, how about too little early? Headlines elsewhere will probably say things like Kings Edge Caps 5-4 but that seems a little misleading... Let's recap, it was a "no point night" - only the third home "no point game" of the season for the Caps. Another interesting point is that the LA Kings, San Jose Sharks and the Columbus Blue Jackets are the only teams to "blank" the Caps so far this season. Coach Boudreau summed it up in the post game interview, the first two periods were as bad as the Caps have played all year. Nobody looked sharp. As good as the third period was, there was no reason that the Caps should have ever been down 4-2, the Caps really didn't play well at all during the third period.

The Caps special teams were mediocre, Theodore's goaltending wasn't horrible, but it sure seemed like there were a couple times when his glove hand wasn't where it was supposed to be and he got scored on. Brooks Laich had a solid game, but overall it wasn't until the lines were jumbled by Coach Boudreau in between the second and thrid periods that the Capital's offense came alive. Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, Alexander Frolov and Jonathan Quick did indeed take advantage of the openings the Caps gave them tonight but, with the exception of Quick, they also pretty much had their way with the Capitals the last time the two teams met. If anybody could have screened Jose Theodore better than Jeff Schultz did in the first period when the Kings scored, it would take a lot of work and some luck. The two quick goals the Kings scored at the beginning of the second period were the "Cap Killers" though. The game was a very different game then it could and would have otherwise been. However, to say the Caps lost may not be giving Quick, who had 41 saves or the Kings Offense who scored , 1 power play, 1 short handed and 3 even strength goals against the Caps in front of another sellout crowd at Verizon Center.

All that said, I have to say this - didn't you just love Sergei Federov's save of an empty net insurance goal by the Kings. The guy is hands down the easiest guy actively playing the game today that you can say the following about - "future hall of famer." Alexander Ovechkin scored his 200th goal - as was repeatedly pointed out by "Joe B" on Comcast SportsNet, Ovie is just the fourth player ever to reach the 200 goal plateau in 4 seasons. So a three game winning streak ends and now the Caps need to move on. Next up the Florida Panthers on Saturday at Verizon. The Panthers are 6-2-2 in their last 10 and just finished beating the NY Islanders 3-2 in regulation tonight. The Cats are also now in second place in the Southeast Division and Eighth Place in the Eastern Conference with 56 points, 14 back of the Capitals. Saturday will be a tough game the way the Panthers are playing.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Great Weekend for Those Capitals, eh?

You Betcha - No Worries, Eh?


Excuse the gibberish and the disjointed, erratic posting here on Mark's Musings. I've been travelling a lot and buried at work. In fact, I've been in Ottawa since last Wednesday and just working about 14-18 hours a day. I missed the Caps games but as you can imagine I've been able to get a lot of hockey news whenever I turn on the tube here. Just for fun I will definitely pick up and read a copy of the Ottawa Sun today, for sure. I may even scan it and post it here when I get back to DC on Wednesday.


So seriously how about those Capitals? What's the season outlook appear to be now. What are the Capitals fighting for now? Well simply put Playoff Seeding and home ice advantages in the upcoming playoff series. For example if the season were to end now, and all top four teams in the Eastern Conference were to win their first series, then the Caps would play the Devils in the second round and have home ice advantage throughout both series. If the Caps were to lose to the Devils on Tuesday and the season ended Wednesday, they would still play the Devils in the second round but the Devils would have home ice advantage in a 7 game series. So even when your team is 5 or 6 games up on their nearest division follower, there is still a lot to play for with 31 games left in the season. LETS GO CAPS!!!!!



How do things look for individuals on the Capitals?


Well as you no doubt know, Alexander Ovechkin is leading the league in goals scored and is on pace for 58+ goals and 108+ points for the season. That will no doubt keep him in the running for a potential repeat of the individual accolades he received last season. This past weekends 5 goals in two game performance in front of home sellout crowds on back to back afternoons will no doubt fuel more purchases of all sorts gear with the number "8" in the DC area. I know I'm off to buy some. You have to love the passion he plays the game with.


Alexander Semin continues on pace to a 35+ goal/80+ point season season assuming he stays healthy. That said in many ways the most important things to note about Semin's season so far is his great performances in shooting percentage (a team leading 19.2%) as well as his team leading +23 rating. He has become one of the best two way power forwards in the league, not just an awesome stickhandling, sniper. Way to go Sasha! Maybe I'll get a few jerseys and shirts with 28 too. Actually, I already have a few, just stay away from the fighting stuff, I liked it but I took a lot of ribbing.


Nicklas Backstrom is definitely "game on" this season as well. No sophomore slump for the teams number two point getter. Backstrom leads the team with 40 assists and with his 13 goals he has 53 points behind only Ovechkin. He has matured into a league leading first line pivot man in just his second year as a pro. When you look at the maturity and calmness he brings to the ice, it is truly amazing to think he is just 21 years old and has played "only" 133 regular season and 8 playoff games.

More Later when I get back from Ottawa....

LETS GO CAPS!!!!