Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday - Caps @ Blue Jackets and other highlights of my week so far

Well the week is off to a fast start even though yesterday evening I crashed for 11 straight hours after being driven to sleep by a flu I've been fighting since last Thursday evening. Tonight we get the Caps @ Columbus and the "Super Tuesday" primary results to watch. Both should be interesting and fun to watch from surreally different perspectives.

As relates to the Caps-Blue Jackets game, Alex Ovechkin meets the Jackets for just the second time in his 217 game career and for the first time in Columbus. Ovie played his first NHL game against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Oct. 5, 2006, and the Caps and Jackets have not met since that contest. The Caps lineup will be shuffled with Eric Fehr called up from Hershey and put on the first line as Victor Kozlov has been moved to the second line center in an attempt to ignite more balanced scoring in particular and more scoring in general from other than the first line. On the other side of center ice, for the first time in the team’s seven seasons in the NHL, Columbus finds itself in the playoff chase. The Blue Jackets are in 11th place in the NHL’s Western Conference, just three points behind Nashville for the eighth and final playoff berth in the Western Conference. It should be a close, fun game to watch as both teams are alive in the playoff race and fighting to get above the 8th place in the conference "cutoff line" with 30 games remaining in the regular season.

The line ups will likely look like this:
Columbus Forwards
61-Nash, 12-Novotny, 9-Vyborny
25-Chimera, 19-Peca, 13-Zherdev
49-Fritsche, 16-Brassard, 17-Brule
51-Murray, 27-Malhotra, 40-Boll
Columbus Defensemen
6-Hainsey, 52-Foote
2-Russell, 97-Klesla
8-Hejda, 23-Tarnstrom
Goaltenders30-Norrena, 31-Leclaire (Probable Starter-Leclaire)

Caps Forwards
8-Ovechkin, 19-Backstrom, 14-Fehr
43-Fleischmann, 25-Kozlov, 28-Semin
53-Laing, 39-Steckel, 10-Bradley
87-Brashear, 21-Laich, 15-Gordon
Caps Defensemen
26-Morrisonn, 52-Green
3-Poti, 23-Jurcina
4-Erskine, 55-Schultz
Goaltenders1-Johnson, 37-Kolzig (Probable Starter - Kolzig)

The Blue Jackets have 56 points in 54 games played points and are 25-23-6 overall and 16-8-4 on home ice this season. The Caps have 53 points in 53 games played and are 24-24-5 overall and 10-12-4 in away games this season.

For excitement and skill factor the Caps have Alex Ovechkin, the league leading goal and point scorer and at times a magician on ice as well as a reshuffled first and second line meant to re-ignite their overall offensive punch.; The Blue Jackets have All Star Left Wing Rick Nash another clutch goal scorer with smooth moves, 26 goals and 17 assists so far this season and Right Wing Nickolai Zherdev with 21 goals and 24 assists to date in the 2007-2008 season. The Caps have 152 goals for so far this season; Columbus has 133, so for offense you have to give the edge to Bruce Boudreau's Capitals.

On the defensive side of the puck the Caps have Mike Green who's having a breakout season, along with Shoane Morrison in his second game back since being out with a foot injury, as well as veteran Tom Poti, Milan Jurcina and John Erskine who have been playing a much more physical games the last three contests they've participated in and Jeff Schultz who has been threatening to breakout and fully establish himself as a blue chipper during several stretches this season. The Blue Jackets "Blue Liners" are anchored by their 36 year old Captain, 2 time Stanley Cup Winner, Adam Foote, who is paired 4th season pro 26 year old American Ron Hainsey, second pair is a duo of young, promising D-men: Kris Russell and Rostislav Klesla who have been getting an increasing amount of ice time for the Blue Jackets and playing well, and the Blue Jackets third defensive paring of 29 year old Czech Jan Hejda who is in only his second NHL season and 33 year old, 6 season veteran Dick Tarnstrom. Given the Caps have Brian Pothier out right now, you'd have to call this area even or even give a slight edge to the Blue Jackets.

Likely goalies for this game are Pascal Leclaire for the Jackets and Brent Johnson for the Caps. Despite the fact that Johnson is playing well and has if anything elevated his game of late, in this area you'd have to give a clear advantage to the Blue Jackets. Twenty Five year old Pascal Leclaire has been having a breakout season his GAA of 2.11 is third best in the league and his save percentage of 0.925 is fifth in the league. His record thus far in the 2007-2008 season is 19-11-3. If the Blue Jackets play backup Fredrik Norrena in goal give the edge to the Caps regardless of whether #1 goalie Olaf Kolzig or Johnson play for the Caps.

Overall, anticipate a hard fought game. Look for Caps Center Dave Steckel to have a big game in his "homecoming" and watch and see how Alexander Semin reacts to being taken to task for his "bad" hooking penalties of late. But if both the Caps reshuffled first and second lines click, the Caps should be able to outscore the Blue Jackets 4-2 and travel to Philly for Wednesday Night's game in the City of Brotherly Love with two more points in their pockets. LET'S GO CAPS!!!!

Elsewhere in my life things are once again getting very busy, on the professional front at ICx Technologies I'm working on several pursuit/business capture initiatives and it's time to review our product development status versus our 2008 plans for the first time in this year's cycle. On the personal front, next week, my wife travels to Bryn Mawr, PA to get her knee replaced with a new type of artificial knee, the Triathlon Knee, so it's entirely likely that following Friday Night's home game against the Division Leading Hurricane's my updates will be spotty for a week or so. A friend of mine from College will be using my seats with his 9-year old son for Sunday's Ranger game while I drive up to Flyer country, where the hospital is and where we'll likely be until Wednesday assuming everything goes well, so if things start to get spotty here relative to posting of updates till late next week, it's because it's unavoidable.

Monday, February 4, 2008

A Tale of Three Backup Goalies

Let's examine the careers, 2007 - 2008 season in process records, and "tales" of three back-up goalies: the Ottawa Senators' controversial Ray Emery, the Pittsburgh Penguins' Ty Conklin, and our own Washington Capitals' Brent "Johnnie" Johnson. First their career stats in summary:

Ty Conklin, age: 31; NHL full or partial seasons: 7, NHL games: 94, NHL Playing Minutes: 4,890; W-L: 42-27-9 (4 shutouts), GAA: 2.53, SV%: 0.909. NHL Playoff Record & Stats: 1-0-1; 6 Minutes Played; GAA: 10.0; SV% 0.667.

Ray Emery, age: 25; NHL full or partial seasons: 5, NHL games: 124, NHL Playing Minutes: 6,847; W-L: 67-35-13 (8 shutouts), GAA: 2.66, SV%: 0.909. NHL Playoff Record & Stats: 30-18-12 (3 shutouts), 1853 Minutes Played over last 2 seasons; GAA: 2.46, SV%: 0.904

Brent Johnson, age: 30; NHL full or partial seasons: 8, NHL games: 222, NHL Playing Minutes: 12,386; W-L: 98-86-22 (13 shutouts), GAA: 2.62, SV%: 0.902. NHL Playoff Record & Stats: 12-5-6 (3 shutouts), 652 minutes played over 2 seasons (last playoff game 2002 with Saint Louis Blues); GAA: 1.84, SV%: 0.931.

Next let's look at their 2007 - 2008 to date by the numbers.

Conklin: 18GP, 12-3-2 (2 shutouts); Min: 1015, GAA: 2.07, SV%: 0.936. Salary: 500K

Emery: 21GP, 8-8-3 (0 shutouts); Min: 1117, GAA: 3.01, SV%: 0.889. Salary: 2.75M

Johnnie: 15GP, 6-6-1 (0 shutouts); Min: 787, GAA: 2.74, SV%: 0.907. Salary: 800K.

Last, let's examine the intangibles and related aspects of their roles and value to their team's as of this date (2/4/2008).

Conklin: Ty Conklin is one of the hottest players in the NHL right now and is one of the key reasons the Pens continue to win despite being without their star center Sidney Crosby, AND their starting goalie Marc Andre Fluery. The other reason is a broad and deep young talent pool anchored by Evgeni (Geno) Malkin. Both Malkin and Conklin are relishing their time in the sun but Conklin is an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA) at the end of this season so each additional victory and minute played without allowing opposing team's to score should mean a sizable raise to the 31 year old from Anchorage. Conklin is also reported to be a solid citizen and presence in the locker room and has had a great reputation in that regard (work ethic, etc.) at every team he has played for and has risen to a leadership role with his current team. Overall Conklin's intangibles have to be judged as overall positive, despite his relative lack of NHL level experience.

Emery: Ray Emery is one of the most controversial figures in the NHL right now despite leading the Ottawa Senators to the Stanley Cup Finals last season. Emery says his most recent "ruckus" was just a misunderstanding - he went to the wrong rink on Long Island to practice. Emery is a young, talented, albeit - apparently - immature player who is basically unsuited to be a backup goalie and who has the clear potential to be a solid number 1 goalie for many teams. For $2.75M per year any employer would clearly expect you to know where and when to show up to do your job. Ray Emery often shines between the pipes for the Senators during key games, however, his work ethic is reported to be very suspect and he admits that getting motivated is much easier for him when the game is important. On the other hand, Emery is only 25 years old and already he has an NHL playoff record that many NHL starters envy. For numerous reasons, several self-inflicted, he is regularly criticized by the hockey mad media in Ottawa and for all their great start this season, the Senators are now skidding and sliding toward a playoff berth. The two goalie "winner plays" system now fostered by Sen's coach John Paddock and the numerous reported criticisms of Emery by teammates such as team captain Daniel Alfredsonn do nothing but exacerbate the situation of a team in some turmoil. Despite his current statements that "he likes it in Ottawa" and "likes the guys he's playing with" there doesn't appear to be the harmony required to make it deep in the playoffs in the current atmosphere around ScotiaBank Palace. The Senators would probably already have dealt Emery if: a) there were any current serious takers AND b) their starting goalie Martin Gerber was playing well and sound. Truth is the in my opinion, John Paddock created the current horrible situation with the Ottawa goalies in an ill considered attempt to "motivate" both Emery and Gerber this season and bring the Stanley Cup back to Ottawa after an 80-year hiatus (the "old" Ottawa Senators last won the Cup at the end of the 1926-1927 season.) Instead, so far this season, the Senators have generally won in spite of rather than because of their goaltending, they've yielded 155 goals against (a team GAA of 2.925 - 22nd out of 30 teams in the league.) If it weren't for their prodigious scoring (they have 182 goals for (3.43/game) so far this season - tied for first with the Detroit Red Wings), and their fast start this season, the Senators would likely be fighting for a playoff spot like virtually the entire Eastern Conference. Instead the Senators are skidding and sliding towards their 10th straight playoff appearance with lots of fear and loathing all around being reported and stirred by the hockey obsessed local media in the Canadian capital. Perhaps John Paddock ought to reconsider his strategy and settle things down and if Ray Emery starts to play to his potential like he did last year all this might be soon forgotten. Then again maybe not, but to be sure right now Emery's "intangibles" have to be judged as overall negative despite his early career success.

Johnson: Brent Johnson is currently both a steady performer and an uncontroversial, positive presence on the surging Capital's team. Despite some general questions in the media and the blogsphere and receiving more playing time of late from the Caps new coach Bruce Boudreau, there is no distracting "goalie controversy" in DC between 16 year veteran #1 Olie Kolzing and the likable, solid, well-playing Johnson. He is often cited as a locker room leader and calming, positive influence on the generally younger Caps team. He, like Kolzig and other recognizable Caps players (Ovechkin, Green, etc.) is a positive image in the Washington community and actively supportive of various Caps charities and team marketing efforts. His "hockey pedigree" is well documented as the grandson of “Hockey Hall of Famer” Syl Apps; and he has always been a level headed player and bench presence over his 7 year career. Overall, Johnson's intangibles have to be viewed as a "Positive", despite his overall record of just 0.533 and lack of recent playoff experience.

Comparatively, when you consider all those factors, if you were a General Manager of an NHL team right now that was making the push for the playoffs with a 16 year veteran, 37 year old #1 goalie which of these three guys would you want as your back-up goalie? Looking at these three guys, all things coinsidered, you'd probably have to rank them in reverse order of what the statistics would seem to indicate: #1 - proven, reliable 30 year old Brent Johnson; #2 - level headed, current hot handed, but inexperienced NHL'er Ty Conklin; and #3 - highest potential, mercurical, young 25 year old Ray Emery. Considering the present situation and looking ahead at next season, it certainly appears that George McPhee, the oft criticized General Manager (aka GMGM), of the Washington Capitals and the coaching duo of Glen Hanlon and Bruce Boudreau have handled the whole selection of a backup for the 37 year old Olaf Kolzig smartly. Should Kolzig retire at the end of this season, or opt to end his career elsewhere as an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA), the Caps have the steady handed services of Johnson locked in for another year at $825K as a fallback position even if they choose to wait a year to look for an undisputed "blue chip goalie". Whether Brent Johnson can be a solid starting goalie in the league is a matter of debate, but at $825K he's a bargain as an experienced, steady handed back up and his perfromance so far this season has many starting to feel he might have the requisite skills.

If Olie Kolzig doesn't return, the Caps would have some fair Salary Cap room if he isn't on their payroll (his 2007-2008 Cap hit is $5.45M) and the following goaltending talent is likely to be available, either Emery or Gerber (depending on the remainder of the season in Ottawa) and the following UFA Goalies: Ty Conklin (if Conklin continues to shine for the Pens and for some reason takes them through a round or two of the playoffs you'd have to consider him as a solid guy for a couple more seasons); 43 year old Domink Hasek, if he doesn't retire, though he'd likely be only a solid back-up to Johnson; Christobel Huet; John Grahme; 32 year old former Vezina Winner and All Star Jose Theodore; Patrick Lalime; Curtis Joseph; and Johan Hedberg. With the exception of Huet, Theodore, and possibly Hedberg (who isn't having his best season this year), should Kolzig opt to retire or the Caps not wish to agree to a salary that is not acceptable to the 16 year veteran, there isn't a clearly available UFA starting goalie who will be on the market. As for trades, it's likely the Senators will look to deal the temperamental Emery but other than him, the market for goalies with the clear talent to start in the NHL isn't too glutted; and besides the Caps, the Nashville Predators, Los Angeles Kings and possibly the Anaheim Ducks will all likely all be on the market looking for undisputed #1 Goalies. Should Olie Kolzig not wish to retire, next the goalie UFA crop gets somewhat better after next season, the only question will be who and how the starting goalie assignments will be split. Will the Caps have a "Goalie Controversy" next year - probably not - both Kolzig and Johnson have seemed to develop a clear friendship and mutual respect, and both are very mature, "classy" gentlemen.

Overall, given the Caps up and coming talent pool in the position, their current salary cap position over the next two years, and the overall state of the NHL's "goalie" market the next two years - this (Goalie Planning and Management) might be an area where you have to give GMGM at least a B+; especially if Olie Kolzig can elevate his play just slightly between now and the playoffs. LET’S GO CAPS!!!!!

Sunday, February 3, 2008

You Just Have To Wonder

After waking up and reading Tarik's piece on last night's game I just started wondering what pieces of the Cap's team would need to elevate their game to win without Ovie. Atlanta wet 2-0 this weekend without their star scorer, Ilya Kovalchuck and Pittsburgh is 3-2-1 so far this season without both Sidney Crosby and Marc Andre Fleury. Clearly Pittsburgh with a 29-19-4 record and 62 points on the season has "arrived" as a team that is back in the NHL's top tier; and there is no questioning their depth either now that they are still winning despite being as hobbled by injuries as any other team this season. The Thrashers are nothing if they aren't inconsistent, so explaining what happened with them this past weekend is harder but, the explanation seems to be as simple as they really wanted to show they are more than a one dimensional team and they have a fairly deep bench with offensive talent and a goalie who’s decided it’s his time to shine.

Looking at the Caps it’s hard to see them having that sort of balance, but that’s what they need. The second, third, and fourth lines need to add offensive production as well as they have escalated their defensive efforts. Over the past 10 games, second, third and fourth line players contributed 10 of the Capitals 33 goals, not a bad number; however in the last three games the supporting cast has scored “nada”, “zip”, “zilch”. Perhaps even more devastating to the Caps – in the last three games the the Caps have not scored a power play goal despite having at least a one man advantage for a total of 8:06. During the prior 7 games the Caps scored a total of nine (9) times on the power play. In the post lockout era special teams’ play is indeed a key to winning, and when the Caps power play is working, it opens up the game for everyone not just AO or Semin who are often the power play goal scorers. Another disturbing issue the past three games has been “bad penalties.” In the 4-0 loss to the Canadeans, John Erskine got the automatic delay of game penalty not once but twice. In the 5-4 OT win over the Canadeans, Alexander Semin ceded a power play opportunity to the Habs by getting nabbed for hooking 11 seconds into a second period power play. Last night, Semin, was twice the cause of lost power play opportunities. During the first period just 6 seconds after Atlanta’s Bobby Holick was sent to the box for slashing, Semin was again caught out of position and nailed with a hooking call as he tried to recover; then in the second period he was called for diving after he was held by Alexei Zhitnik. I really don’t understand how a guy who is truly fouled gets called for “diving” so I don’t hold the second penalty against him but the first one, especially two games in a row?!? These “bad” penalties were especially damaging during the two shut out losses, since the Caps didn’t get that many power play chances. If the Caps don’t make the playoffs it will be because of games like those two shutout losses this past week.

Are the Caps playoff chances much less than they were at the start of post all star push – not yet, but the team needs to stop reading the hype of their post Thanksgiving achievements and concentrate on the business at hand – winning hockey games one period and one shot at a time. If they return to that focus and level of play, then they’ll be able to win even on nights they don’t score 2 power play goals or nights that AO doesn’t score. LET’S GO CAPS!!!

Saturday, February 2, 2008

Thrashers 2, Capitals 0

Well the Capitals outshot the Thrashers 36 - 12 (the Thrashers lowest shot total all season) but Kari Lehtonen and Mark Recchi had good games. The Caps played a tight game to be sure (one of the Thrashers two goals was an empty nettter) but they just couldn't keep the momentum long enoungh to "capitalize" on what was otherwise a reasonably solid effort. That said, the Caps also didn't "swarm enoungh" around Lehtonen and force any rebounds he didn't otherwise want to yield. To be sure there seemed to be a reasonable energy level at the "Phone Booth" - the crowd was a good one - 17, 205 and they were into the game right up till the empty netter at 19:20 in the third period. The Thrashers outhit the Caps 30 - 23, the Caps hit leaders were Matt Bradley (4); Milan Jurcina (3); and Quintin Laing (3), though Defenseman Tom Poti, Jeff Shultz, and Mike Green didn't make a hit between them. Hit leaders for the Thrashers were Steve McCarthy (5); Bobby Holick (5); Ken Klee (4); Garnet Exelby (3); Marian Hossa (3); and Alexei Zhitnik (3).


Tonight was a game where everyone came to play but Mark Recchi and Kari Lehtonen were "game on" all night for the Thrashers and on the Caps side of the ice both Alexander Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom "brought it" all night as well. In the end the Thrashers smothering play and Lehtonen's excellent goaltending won the side. The Caps have been shutout two of their last three games despite mounting a reasonable offenesive charge in both those losses, however in both cases the opponents won out by having solid goaltending and keeping the Caps from swarming on rebounds and/or their powerplay. The Caps next two games are on the road in Columbus on Tuesday against the Blue Jackets and in Philadelphia on Wednsday agaist the Flyers. The Blue jackets are 16-8-4 so far this season at Nationwide Arena and will be coming off tonight's 4-1 home loss against the Northwest Division leading Minnesota Wild; the Flyers are 13-7-5 so far this season at Wachovia Center after blanking the Anaheim Ducks tonight 3-0 in Philadelphia. The Flyers play the Thrashers on Tuesday Night in Atlanta before meeting the Caps at home on Wednsday. LETS GO CAPS!!!!!