Tuesday, September 30, 2014

This? Or That? ...

It's getting close to time for the Capitals' Coaching and management staff to start making some real hard choices with regard to roster personnel.  So I figured I'd play "armchair GM" and make some of my own... so all of these guys are listed on the roster per the team's website this evening.  Right now the Caps list 18 forwards on the roster and 11 defensemen on the roster as well as 3 three goaltenders.  Let's do the easy thing first and say we agree with the plan for goaltenders on opening night: that's Holtby & Peters.  Now on to the "this or that's" for the defensemen.

Olesky or Hillen:  Both are 28 year old Journeyman defensemen who bring something to the table.  However in my view Olesky's size, grit, and hockey sense are all greater than Hillen, making it so Olesky is actually the guy with more upside IMO. The only thing I'd give to Hillen is he's a left hand shot.  if you have the feeling that you want a left and right hand shot on each pair that means that Olesky's partners of the guys I think at top 5 on the depth chart are Alzner & Orpik while Hillen's are Carlson, Green, and Niskanen.  Sounds like in that regard you go for Hillen but then think about it it's 1-0 with 10 minutes to play and you are Barry Trotz trying to rest you top pair for a final 10:00 surge, who'd you rather have out there for the Caps on defense Hillen and Green, Carlson or Niskanen or Olesky with either Alzner or Orpik. To me that's an easy call. All of the sudden Olesky with either Alzner or Orpik are who I send out no hesitation.  On the other hand definitely not Hillen with either Carlson or Green - in those situations in the past well it just hasn't been pretty. The 160 K of salary Cap I pick up are gravy but really not a factor at all.

Schmidt or Schilling - Both have upside and I'd keep them both in "the system" I love Schilling's size ... but ... the one closer to being NHL ready is Schmidt.  So then let's ask ...

Schmidt or Carrick - Again both deserve to stay in the system but all last year while I loved the electricity that Carrick brought at times when he was on the ice, he made enough noticeable bad "hockey decisions" that required him to save himself with his skating speed, I say Schmidt. So then let's ask ....

Schmidt or Wey - Again I like them both but I think Wey definitely needs another half to full season in Hershey before I pick him over Schmidt or Carrick and right now to me Schilling vs Wey is a "dead heat." So.. now here's my last this and this or that or that for defense ..

Erskine, Orlov, Olesky or Schmidt pick three of the four ... the question that arises when Orlov gets healthy.  Me, I go with Orlov and Olesky - a Right and a Left Hand Shot, when looking at Green, Niskanen, Carlson and Alzner that's 3 right hand shots and two lefties so I guess it's a good thing that both Erskine and Schmidt are left hand shots as well.  Erskine 6'-4" 220#, age 34, played 37 games last season had 1 goal, 3 assists, 64 hits, 56 PIM and , true grit on ice.  Schmidt 6-0", 194#, age 23, played 29 games last season in a Caps sweater, scored 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 PIM and had 18 hits. Me, I start the season with Erskine as number 8 on the depth chart on defense and let Schmidt mature a little more in Hershey.  But I'm not worried when any of these four guys gets hurt this year with the talent the Capitals have on the roster's blue line and that's the first time I felt I could say that in 7 seasons. I see the opening day roster with 8 guys listed who are blue liners:  Alzner, Carlson, Erskine, Green, Niskanen, Olesky, Orpik, and Schmidt (with Orlov on IR).

Now onto a little "forward" this or that.... Any "this or that" for the Capitals at this stage has to start with looking at the alternatives for second line center ... So then let's ask ...

Laich or Kuznetsov - why Laich - well let's start with the fact that spending $4.5M of your salary Cap (6.5+%) is a lot to spend on someone who would end up on the depth chart below the second line, then lets look at him, 31 years old, 6'-2", 210#, 10 NHL seasons under his "belt", total of 617 games played including "iron man seasons" 70+ games each season 2005 - 2012 but only 9 games played in 2012 - 13, and 51 games 2013-14.  Best seasons 2009-10; 78 games played, 25 G, 34 A, 59 points and IMO 2010 - 11 82 games played, 16 G, 32 A, 48 points (he had more goals in 2008-09 and 07-08 but I think 10 -11 was a better season for him). But the real question is at 31, 32, and 33 years of age will he ever be as good as he was 5 on 5 before he turned 30? There's no doubt in my mind Kuznetsov has more "upside" than Laich had when he was 22 let alone now that Laich is 31.  However, the question is right now, is Laich a better fit for the second line center position than Kuznetsov.  For my money the answer is  - no - I go with Kuznetsov over Laich, I want his speed and creativity at the second line center position a lot more than I want Laich's experience and conservative, safe play.  Also for Laich to reach the levels he did in his best years he has to be braver than he has been since 2010.  He has to get into the grills of goaltenders and risk getting inadvertently hit by an errant shot by a teammate ... again because at 31, even though he's in great shape he's probably a quarter step slower than he was at 26 or 27. Can he do that and durably play 65+ games this season.  Meanwhile Kuznetsov is younger at 22, faster and has creativity and vision with the puck Laich never had.  He also despite being only 22 is used to playing "in the spotlight" with 5 seasons of KHL experience and 40 games of World and World Junior Championship experience and averaging 0.72 point per game. So then lets ask ...

Kuznetsov or Burakovsky: This is a no brainer to me, Burakovsky is 19, has none of Kuznetsov's KHL or WC "creds" and is a natural wing who needs more games at a lower level learning how to be a center if he's going to be the Capitals second line center.  Don't get me wrong he's been awesome this preseason so far and will be a talent in the NHL soon, maybe this season at Left Wing but I'd let him mature another season either in Hershey or in the OHL back in Erie even.  He'll bulk up his 6'1" frame some (he's only 178#) and he could really learn to be an awesome Center and more well rounded 200', 2 - way hockey player with one more season if that's what Trotz and the Caps want from him. So then lets ask ...

Kuznetsov or Johansson: Johansson is 23 years, has played 263 regular season games and 30 playoff games in four (4) NHL seasons.  He's averaged 0.53 points per game in regular season games and 0.33 points per game in regular season games.  So why not Johansson? Well his face off % hasn't been good ever, but to be fair he's not had a lot of chance to practice and develop that skill.  However, given this season will be Kuznetsov's first full season on NHL sized ice rinks and his first season of such long length, I'd pick MoJo to start the season as the second line center. I also think MoJo is better suited to "pair" with Brouwer, the defacto second line right wing.  That means if Trotz desires he can put Laich out as the second line LW and you have three guys on that line who can take faceoffs, and have "not too shabby" footspeed...or you could go a different way for the second line LW.  But my choice as second line center on opening night is Marcus Johannson.

I then go with Kuznetsov or Fehr on the first line as the third forward with Ovechkin and Backstrom.  Fehr can play there or as the third line center between Chimera and Ward.  Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against Laich but with the skillz at center Fehr has developed the last season and a half, the only thing Laich brings to the table over Fehr, at the price of an additional $3M of salary Cap is a slight edge as on the penalty kill unit. So if it's me I buyout or trade Laich. Going with Kuznetsov and Fehr over Laich to round out the top "9" forwards:  Backstrom, Brouwer, Burakovsky, Chimera, Fehr, Johannson, Kuznetsov, Ovechkin, and Ward. So then lets ask ...

What about the "Energy Line": I go with three Centers: Latta - at center, Beagle at Left Wing and Casey Wellman at Right Wing sending Tom Wilson to Hersehy for more ice time and to speed his development. 

And who should be the 13th forward?  I don't really care as long as Wilson spends some time in Hershey getting 15+ minutes a game of ice time.

So that's my ideas for this or that.  I have no illusions the opening night roster will be different and Brooks Laich will still be a Capital; also the Mike Green trade rumors will persist throughout the season until he's got a contract extension in hand thanks to Sports Illustrated.  All that said I'm getting excited for the upcoming NHL season to start.

LETS GO CAPS!!!

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