Saturday Is A Great Day to Muse 'Bout Spoilers & "Headshots" In the NHL

Wow, it's Saturday March 26th already, and in some ways it doesn't seem like we are already almost one quarter of the way through with 2011. I mean, hey here I am in Bristow, VA ten days into the season of spring and The Weather Channel is telling me it's going to snow tomorrow so in that respect it seems more like January or February. However, if you're an NHL player you know that's not the case since the All-Star break is well in the rear-view mirror and the end of the regular season are now no more than nine (9) games away for any team. So of course that means when you think about the NHL you can look at the remaining few games and really understand the impact or potential impact of a few simple things: a) three point games; b) "hot" teams at the bottom of the standings aka "spoilers"; c)injuries to teams who are fighting for playoff spots aka "bubble teams" key/star players; and d) injuries to "playoff" team's key/star players. So because I don't want this post to ramble on infinitely I'll only be musing "aloud" about two of those items this morning, "don'tch ya know."

So at the bottom of the standings, teams who are either mathematically eliminated or nearly so from the playoffs sit teams who are to my thinking eight or more points behind the eighth place team in their conference. That means that in the Eastern Conference I consider: Atlanta, New Jersey, the Islanders, Florida, and Ottawa, and in the Western Conference: Minnesota, Columbus, Saint Louis, Colorado, and Edmonton all teams that may as well be cleaning their golf equipment in preparation for late April vacations. Of course between now and then there is a little matter of the basic traits of competitiveness and personal pride that all professional athletes share for those ten (10) teams. That's what can, and often does, make them the biggest threats to the "bubble" teams or anyone else fighting for points these next two weeks in order to get better playoff seeding. So when you look at those ten teams who's shaping up to be the biggest, most consistent spoilers? To answer that question, you need to look at the play of each of them during the past four (4) weeks or so - basically their performance in games since March 1. Based on looking at the results of those ten (10) teams for the month of March to date, there are three teams I'd now classify as "spoilers" - teams who will not make the playoffs, but who will have affected already and will likely continue affect who makes the playoffs and how they are seeded, unfortunately for the Eastern Conference "bubble teams" they are all the East:

1) Islanders 6-2-4, or 0.667 hockey, basically if the Isles played this way all season, they'd be on track for 109 points.
2) Ottawa: 9-5-0, or 0.643 hockey, a 105+ point season pace.
3) New Jersey: 7-4-1 or 0.625 hockey, a 102+ point season pace.

The other seven (7) are all playing 0.500 hockey or worse so facing them is no different, IMO, then playing any other team in the League, in that they meet the criteria of "On any given night ..." Of course, if you are a Caps fan and watched last night''s 2-0 loss to the Ottawa Senators, you knew they were playing very well of late; and if you're a hockey fan of any type who isn't completely/totally "dead" (not nearly dead) then you know the Devils have been pretty much "on fire" since mid-January; however, the late-season play of the Islanders may have escaped your attention. By the way, that's part of the reason why I think Michael Grabner is likely, and should be this season's NHL Rookie of the Year.

So who do the "spoilers" play that matter in particular (i.e. "bubble teams") over the remainder of the season:

a) The Islanders have eight (8) games remaining, six of which are against "bubble" or playoff teams. "Bubble Team" opponents include: the Rangers on 3/31 and the Carolina Hurricanes on April 2nd, both are home games for the Islanders.

b) Ottawa has seven (7) games remaining, five of which are against "bubble" or playoff teams. "Bubble Team" or opponents whose play could affect their seeding include: Tampa Bay on 3/29, Toronto on 4/2, and Montreal on 4/7. The Tampa Bay game is on the road but the games against Senator rivals Leafs and Habs are in Ottawa.

c) New Jersey has eight (8) games remaining, seven (7) of which are against "bubble" or playoff teams. "Bubble Team" opponents include: Buffalo tonight in Buffalo, Montreal on 4/2, Toronto on 4/6 (both in New Jersey at "The Rock), and the Rangers at MSG on 4/9.

So as long as I can I plan on watching or at least channel flipping between the Caps game and the following, as they should be really good games and I have the NHL Center Ice Package:

Tonight: Devils - Sabres
March 29th: Ottawa - Tampa Bay
March 31st: Islanders - Rangers
April 2nd: Senators - Maple Leafs
April 7th: Senators - Canadiens
April 9th: Devils - Rangers.

Now about "headshots." First there's no question in my mind they are an issue that needs to be addressed by the NHL, there's also no question that it took the injury to Crosby to get the league to do something about it - and that's a bad thing that also should be a subject to ponder by both the NHLPA and the Board of Governors as the CBA approaches. I say this because Mike Green is a star no doubt, at 25 he's been a Norris Trophy finalist twice already; he's been out for a month already with a concussion and outside of the DC blogsphere and MSM there has been little mention of it. Simply put the only other player getting a concussion that might have gotten the NHL's attention to the degree of the Crosby injury has generated would be Ovechkin. I say might because with Ovie's style of play I'm not even sure it would have done so. The issue to me isn't that the Crosby injury is overblown, it's that with 70+ concussions this season, that number alone without an injury to a star or multiple star players should have been enough to get the level of debate going. It wasn't and anyone who says it was, please explain to me the basis for that statement. As for the Matt Cooke suspension, it's a start but frankly, I don't think it was harsh enough - he should have been suspended for the remainder of the season and the entire playoffs, in my opinion. Do I think Cooke can change the way he plays the game as he has indicated he knows he needs to do - I don't have an answer to that other than I think he has the talent and skills to play in the NHL effectively without playing the way he has been these past few seasons that has gotten hi four (4) suspensions since he's joined Pittsburgh. That said, I think two other places the game needs to change to address this and lower the risk to the players, besides stiffer penalties and suspensions are a) The equipment - specifically the shoulder pads, bottom line they are allowed to be too big and too hard; and b) The pace of play - the changes to the rules that have increased the number of interference calls have also increased the speed of the game. The goal was to make the game more exciting and also likely higher scoring. It's more exciting for sure - the increased risk of injury does that; as for higher scoring, the fact that at some point everyone knows defense wins Stanley Cups means that everything is regressing to a norm here and that's not so much the case anyway. The rules re: interference need to be looked at again so when someone does make a hit they have more options that don't result in an interference penalty than hitting them at full speed since the difference between hitting someone who is and isn't able to defend themselves can often be literally a split second. That's just my view but I think the general point that the rules other than just the hit to the head rule need to be considered here. I'm going to end these musings with a final thought - here's hoping both Mike Green and Sidney Crosby a) are out on the ice again soon and b) after the season is over get involved in these discussions and help the NHL come up with some changes that make their workplace a little safer in this regard.

So I'm not doing a recap of the Ottawa game there's several good ones out here in the blogsphere but I will make sure everyone who reads my blog sees that my favorite quote of the evening came from Matt Hendricks when asked about a another particularly bad call by another NHL official - one of the latest of many this season. In this case a blatant 4:00 high sticking call that was waved off was the subject in question. Hendricks response: "My view?” he said. “It was an Easton Synergy in my face.” As for tonight's game in Montreal, as usual I'll be rooting for the Caps from my den here in Bristow and happy that I'll see the game in HD tonight - for some reason my CSN-HD Channel had a poker game on last night, what was that about?

LETS GO CAPS!!!

"It's Called Respect..."

A couple of games ago when the Caps were in Montreal and the Habs fans boo'ed Alexander Ovechkin for no apparent reason other than he was carrying the puck up the ice, Capitals TV Announcer Joe B. stated: "Its called respect." I found that an odd take but not an unreasonable one on the whole situation. However, this past week, an article was published in The Hockey News that really says RESPECT back to the Capitals about their play and prospects this season. It's titled: "Ovechkin, Capitals crushing NHL with new responsible, winning system" - basically it says what most of us in the Capitals blogsphere have been saying for a while but to be said in The Hockey News well that's RESPECT.

Also interesting information and reading this morning for Caps fan is this post over at "Capitals News Network" about the NHL Team who that leads the league in minutes played by rookies so far this season. So if you've been enjoying the play and/or having a man crush on Marcus Johansson, John Carlson, Karl Alzner, Michal Neuvirth, Jay Beagle, or Braden Holtby, and wondering why, this blog post might help you understand the roots of those feelings. Or perhaps the way these guys have been playing the second half of the season you forgot they were all at least technically rookies, and lest not forget Semyon Varlamov, who is just past rookie status himself.

In case you missed the Selection Show for the NCAA Division I Hockey Tournament this morning on ESPN 2 the 16 teams in this year's tourney are:
The five (5) automatic bids - Hockey East Champions and defending 2010 Champions Boston College, WCHA Champions North Dakota, ECAC Champion Yale, CCHA Champion Miami of Ohio, and Atlantic Hockey Champ Air Force.
and at large selections: Minnesota - Duluth, Union, University of Denver, Western Michigan University, Michigan, Nebraska-Omaha, Colorado College, Merrimack, Notre Dame, and New Hampshire.

Regions for the Tourney are:
In the East Regional in Bridgeport, the # 1 Seed is Yale who play #4 Air Force, while #3 Minnesota - Duluth plays #2 Union.
In the Midwest Regional its the #1 seed North Dakota Fighting Sioux vs #4 RPI and #2 Denver vs #3 Western Michigan Broncos.
In the West Regional its #1 Boston College vs # 4 Colorado College and #2 Michigan vs. #3 Nebraska - Omaha.
In the Northeast Regional in New Hampshire its #1 Miami of Ohio vs. #4 New Hampshire and #2 Merrimack vs #3 Notre Dame.

If you're wondering why/how an at large selection/#4 seed basically gets to play a home game against a number 1 seed who is being force to travel out of area (i.e. Miami of Ohio vs. New Hampshire) then you are sharing the feeling I have right now as I listened to the selection show. If you know the answer then please enlighten me, I cannot understand why the Selection Committee isn't making New Hampshire travel say to the Midwest region and sending RPI to play Miami of Ohio in New Hampshire, but hey that's just me and just one of numerous possibilities that would likely be "more fair" than what they've done here. Of course if you're Miami of Ohio, you'll probably just tear through the region as a way of demanding RESPECT...

Finally as noted over at Japer's Rink today - Happy 28h Birthday to Dennis Wideman.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Capitals 3 - Devils 0; Has The Bell Tolled In New Jersey?

Well last night at Prudential Center in Newark, the Capitals "out-deviled" the New Jersey Devils, winning a game that was likely more important for the Devils that the Capitals by a score of 3 - 0. It wasn't a pretty win. It wasn't even all that fun to watch, However it was two important standings points and an important win at an important time of year. The game was the Capitals 73rd and the Devils 71st of the season; at the start of the game, the Caps were in first place in their Division and 2nd place in the Eastern Conference and the Devils were in 4th place in their Division and 12th place in the Conference - at game's end the standings hadn't changed. In fact, the only difference in the standings at the end of the night was the Caps are now six (6) points ahead of Tampa Bay in the Southeast Division and the same distance ahead of Boston who sits in Third Place in the Conference. So what was so important about last night's game? Two things: a) "runway" - as in something New Jersey, which has been on a tear since changing back to their old coach, is likely to run out of now before the season's end before they leap over the four teams they need to pass to make the playoffs in their remaining 11 games; and b) pride - something the Capitals needed to ensure they continued to demonstrate and grow in the game they are playing leading up to this years post season. The Caps needed to demonstrate pride as mush or more than the Devils last night for two reasons. Firstly, they needed to "bounce back" from their prior game loss to Detroit in order to make sure they stay out of the habit of loosing two games in a row between now and when they are forced to hang up their skates at the end of this season's playoffs. Secondly, the last time these two teams met in New Jersey, things looked a lot differently for both of them and the Caps left "The Rock" on the wrong end of a 5-0 beating.

So how'd the Caps do? Thanks to smart, disciplined play by the entire team, and some EXCELLENT goaltending by Michal Neuvirth, the Caps did very well last night, thank you very much. In a game that was well played by both teams, the Capitals showed they could be as disciplined and patient as any team coached by a guy named Jacques. In a game that was important to win, and was just two night's after loosing to the perennial NHL benchmark that is known as Detroit, "Neuvy" out played "Maarty" - as in future Hall of Famer Martin Brodeur - stopping 33 shots and turning in a perfect SV% of 1.000 on the evening to Brodeur's 9 of 12/0.750 performance. The three stars of the game chosen by the local New Jersey media were: 1) Neuvirth (no arguments there); Mike Knuble (2 goals - no arguments there); and 3) Alex Ovechkin (2 assists and all over the ice - deserving for sure but hey NJ MSM didn't you get the memo?). The memo I'm talking about is the John Carlson memo of course. "Captain America" went all out for last night's game apparently. First he had Mama Carlson cook a really good New Jersey Italian meal at his boyhood home in Colonna for a bunch of the guys on Thursday night, then he bought 45 tickets for friends and family to the game, and then he played a superb game both defensively never being out of position, and offensively notching two assists of his own last night. I guess in order to edge out Ovechkin in that voting he should have given them some home cookin' too. Well even though according to the twtter "tweets" of the teammates who attended the dinner at the Carlson's no one left hungry, I'm okay with John Carlson still being hungry or at least a little so, the next time the Caps go to the "Rock" or the "Garden" to play either the Devils or the Rangers.

To be fair I'd guess the media picked Ovechkin over Carlson because Ovie was +3 on the night while Carlson was "merely" +2; and the Cap's first line was the best set of players when they were on the ice all evening long. Ovie was Ovie, MoJo90 was very good, and I don't know who was wearing the 22 sweater last evening, but if it was Mike Knuble he certainly didn't play like a 38 year old man. In fact, Knuble has been playing very well, even better than usual, and with a lot of energy the last couple of games. Is he making the case/trying to determine if he wants another year before he hangs up his skates? or is he playing harder to make sure he goes out with the best year possible sometime after the end of April this year? Stay tuned, hopefully it won't be until sometime in June we bring this discussion up again; and hopefully we all get a lot more chances to see just how awesome he can be between now and then. In any case Knuble scored his 18th and 19th goals of the season last night and is looking like he will probably put up the eighth (8th) 20+ goal season of his 15 year/14 season NHL career. The old man of the Capital's team certainly isn't looking like he is slowing down anytime soon and that's a great thing for we Caps fans to get to see/watch, especially this time of the year. It's yet another one of those things that is making me relish this spring even more than last. Michal Neuvirth, last night's game, one word - AWESOME. That performance, as I think back to the game, I have those silly, long drawn out movie lines going through my head like: "heeee'ssss baaaaaccccckkkkk". etc. Pretty cool. The Capitals do indeed have three young goaltenders, who are all playing very well when they are healthy. But based on Neuvy's last two outings - Detroit and New Jersey - I'm more than happy to say right now and for the rest of the season, the 22 year old Czech with the 23-11-4 record, 4 shutouts, and funny look on his face on his team headshot is the #1 goaltender. Neuvy's season long SV% is 0.916 and his GAA is 2.42 and he looked great last evening against New Jersey - especially when they were "swarming."

Did the Capitals really "out devil" the Devils last night? Hard to say when you look at every aspect of the scoresheet, except one - "the bottom line" - Caps 3 - Devils 0. Oh and the fact that Ovechkin, the third star of the game had ZERO shots on goal, yet had two assists and was +3. Against the Devils that's something. Usually when the Devils shutdown an opposing team's star they do it more effectively than that. If there is just one game we can all point to that demonstrates just how much more important team results are to Ovie this season then ever before, and just how much more mature a player he is now than say two seasons ago, last night's game should likely be "that game." When it comes to the question of out-deviling the Devils - sure the Capitals were out shoot by the Devils 33 -12 and still won the game 3-0. However it's the other aspects of the score sheet that show the Caps out mastered the Devils "at their own game" or perhaps more accurately "at Jacques Lemaire's game": a) faceoff wins: Caps 31 - Devils 28 (even with Jason Arnott out, nice to have you back Nicklas Backstrom!, oh and Knuble was a perfect 1-0 here too); b) Capitals PK unit - perfect - killed 8:00 of Devils power play; c) Capitals: 4 takeaways and 2 giveaways, New Jersey 7 takeaways and 15 giveaways; d) Caps 21 shots attempted 57% on goal. Every other place on the scoresheet the Caps are very close to the Devils as well, so yeah to me it looks like the Caps "out-deviled" the Devils last night. It wasn't all that fun to watch but hey, I liked the results and I love the looks on the faces of the hockey pundits on TV when they talk about this team. I don't really care that the Caps may be scaring other teams when they think about having to play against the Capitals in the playoffs. Nope, what I care about is I truly believe this team is constructed to and ready to make a run deep into those same playoffs.

Speaking of which next up for the Caps 72nd game of the season are the Flyers in Philadelphia on Tuesday evening. That should be a good game and it's nice to see the Caps now have three days to sort some things and/or get healthier.

LETS GO CAPS!!!

Two Days and Two Capitals Games Since My Last Post ...

Well since my last post on Monday the Capitals have played two games of their current six game road trip. On Tuesday they played in Montreal and delivered a solid game and win against the Canadiens: 4-2 in regulation. Then last night they took on the Red Wings at "The Joe" in Detroit, a place they haven't been able to win a game at for a long time. Unfortunately, once again, despite playing a decent hockey game, and getting pretty good goaltending from Michal Neuvirth (in the net for the first time since leaving the game against Tampa Bay on 3/7 with some metal in his eye after the first period), the Capitals were unable to leave Detroit with two points, or even a single point, loosing to the Wings 3-2 in regulation.

To some degree the two games were polar opposites as far as the play, tenor and tone of the two opposing teams the Caps faced in them. In Tuesday night's game the Canadiens seemed to have a way of making the Cps look even better than the lopsided scoresheet - lopsided in favor of the Capitals in almost every measure - makes the game appear in retrospect. In Montreal, every one on the Capitals team looked very good, and in fact, IMO played a very good game. Notables: Boyd Gordon - 12 of 16 (75%) in the faceoff circle; Marcus Johansson - 2 goals and buzzing around the ice like "nobody's business the entire game; John Carlson and Karl Alzner - each of them +2 and each of them with an assist; Alexander Ovechkin - basically playing like Alexander Ovechkin always seems to play in Montreal: 1 point (an assist) +1 and led the team with 4 hits; Brooks Laich with a goal off a move that demonstrated to all just "What A Boss" he can be - just ask Hal Gill; Braden Holtby - a slightly off night at least at the start but gets an Assist and his fifth straight W; and the list could go on. On the other side of the ice, as I mentioned Laich undressed Gill and for all his "chirping" Tuesday evening P.K. Suban, who will be a star in the NHL someday, was definitely not looking like one in that game. In fact were it not for Cary Price's excellent goaltending, the game could have been even more lopsided.

Last night, while Neuvy kept the Capitals close, and no one on the Capitals team had an exceptionally bad game, as has often been said, the Detroit Red Wings have a system and way about them that just can "suck the life" out of an opposing team and smother them. That's what they did last night. When you look at tthis stat sheet you can and do see it in every aspect of the game. The first thing you notice about it when you look is just how much of a "puck control" game the Red Wings play and just how well they execute it: a) Faceoffs 35-21 in favor of the Red Wings; b) SOG 35-28 in favor of the Red Wings; c) shots attempted 64 - 42 in favor of the Red Wings. Don't get me wrong elsewhere in the stats the Capitals didn't do badly and as I say other than one goal that Neuvy let in that is in the "you just have to stop those" category, the Capitals stayed in the game all night long. They even had two chances to tie the game late in the third, but alas "the hockey gods" deigned not to smile on the Capitals last evening. All that said, throughout the game, they generally looked worse than the scoresheet might lead you to believe. Also, unlike Monday in Montreal, the Capitals special teams were not their brightest light; the PK unit let Detroit score on one of their two (2) power plays; and the power play units failed to score in any of their four (4) power play chances against the Wings. Best Caps on the ice last night (IMO): Dennis Wideman, Alexander Ovechkin, and Michal Neuvirth. Alexander Semin was about 1 1/2 inches and 40 seconds away from being a hero with a game tying goal in the last minute, but alas he hit the post and ends up with a very unremarkable line on the score sheet instead. Best Red Wing on the ice last night: Henrik Zetterberg - "Z" had quite a night 2 goals, 7 SOG, 2 takeaways and was 7 for 11 (64%) in the faceoff circle. Notably, the Capitals were able to keep Pavel Datsyuk somewhat in check last evening - it seemed to me to be the one thing that Alexander Semin absolutely was determined to do when they were out on the ice together and when that matchup was there Semin won it last night. However, the following other Red Wings all also played very well and made sure their team won the game: the ageless Nicklas Lidstrom (24:10 TOI, +1); Brian Rafelski (3 assists, +2, 1 BS); Kris Draper (6 for 6 in faceoffs); Justin Abdelkader (often in Ovechkin's grill) and the list is probably missing someone. BTW speaking of Abdelkader often being in Ovechkin's grill in the first period when it looked like those two might actually do more than just push and shove each other I had two notable thoughts: a) wow that's a trade I'd love if I was Babcock Abdelkader in the box for 5:00 to put Ovechkin in the box for 5:00 but Ovechkin showed he understands the score and isn't an inexperienced kid if he ever was one; and b) that's called smart line matching when you have the last change, wonder if the Capitals coaching staff should be taking notes. Well like I said, the Caps didn't play horribly, they just succumbed to the smothering play of the Red Wings in Detroit once again. With any luck, we'll all get a chance to see them try and figure out how to overcome that situation twice more this Hockey season (think about it if you don't understand what I'm saying). Now it's on to Newark, NJ for a game against the resurgent and well playing New Jersey Devils tomorrow night at "The Rock."

LETS GO CAPS!!!