Just How Good Can the Caps Do This Season?

So before we get to the meat and potatoes of today's post a quick look around the limited portion of the hockey blogsphere that I frequent (something I haven't had virtually any time to do for the past two weeks while I toiled away here at ICx Technologies both in Northern Va and in Ottawa).

• First it would be inconceivable not to mention the awesome move that former Cap Richard Zednick used to score his 7th goal of the season last night. To use an "Ovechkinism" it is sick! (and that of course means really, really good.)
• Second, what about that...the Capitals recalled Karl Alzner today. Unfortunately, Viktor Kozlov's groin tweak looks like it'll keep him off the ice a while longer as he hasn't been on the ice since the end of the first period Tuesday against the Devils. Of course the other bad news that dropped yesterday was that Brent Johnson needs hip surgery, a really tough thing to happen to a really nice guy in a contract year. That's why Michal Neuvirth was on the bench backing up Jose Theodore last night.
• Pepper over at "The Red Skate" appears to be suggesting that taking an occasional loss in stride is the proper perspective. That's probably an intelligent perspective to have as when one surveys the information below, losses to opponents by the Capitals so far this season are indeed something that has only been an occasional occurrence.
• Capitals Kremlin makes a point about the productivity, as well as the issues that "hubris" and "over cuteness" of "The Young Guns" last night can create. However, in his failure to point out the four LA Kings who notched five goals, on breakaways or uncleared rebounds, in addition to the great goaltending by Jonathon Quick, doesn't give the Kings their due. The Kings won last nights game as much or more than the Capitals lost it. They took advantage of the openings the Caps gave them and during the first two periods, manufactured a few of their own. A close review of the tape of the game by several Caps skaters will point to weaknesses that need to be watched and remedied in order to ensure the Caps make a run deep into the playoffs this year. Over the course of a seven game series, bad habits become noted weaknesses that NHL level players prey on.
• Peerless's review of last night's game is, as usual dead nuts on, the flavor of which can best be captured in this short excerpt: "That was pretty much the recipe for success for the Los Angeles Kings as they parted the red-jerseyed Capitals often for breaks down the middle of the ice for scores and scoring chances, then held on for dear life in the final seconds in a 5-4 defeat of Washington last night."
• If you haven't heard, "Joe B" now has a blog and he makes some interesting post game points about the loss to the Kings. Joe notes that it seemed like the Kings were trying to go glove side high on Theo a lot. It seemed to me watching on TV that at least during the second period, Theo seemed to be either starting with his glove low or dropping it pretty quickly as he went down into his butterfly.
• Puckdaddy looks at the logic and illogic of a return to the Rangers by Sean Avery.
• Mirtle once again looks at the march to the magic "90 point" number for the playoffs. Candidly other than the Capitals, the Florida Panthers look pretty good for a second Southeast Division team in the playoffs if they keep the pedal to the metal. The Caps have two games against the Cats this month including "next up." Carolina needs to turn it up a notch if they are to get to the projected 91 points needed, but how about the fact that the Penguins are a "bubble team" who would have predicted that one at the start of the season?
• Japer's Rink looks to add to the fighting controversy discussions of late.

And now back to our regularly scheduled programming....

In order to figure "how good the Caps do this year," we have to look at just how they've been doing so far this season. The Caps have been consistently good this season and went from "good" in October and November to "almost fantastic" in December and dropped back to "very good" in January. The month by month results looked like this:


October: 5-3-1 (11 points, 0.611)
November: 8-5-2 (18 points, 0.600)
December: 11-3-0 (22 points, 0.786)
January: 7-4-1 (15 points, 0.682)


Overall the Caps have gone 31-15-4 for 66 points and played 0.660 hockey for the first four months of this season. Right now the Caps are 33-16-4 with 70 points in 53 games this season. They are on pace for a 108 point season if they maintain the 0.660 average pace they've been on overall this season. If they play a little better than the 0.682 pace they had in January they could easily reach a 112 points. Putting a 108 - 112 point season into perspective, last season the Canadeans won the Eastern Conference with 104 points and only the San Jose Sharks and the Detroit Red Wings had more points in the Western Conference with 108 and 115 points respectively. In the 2006-2007 season the Buffalo Sabres won the East with 113 points and the New Jersey Devils came in second with 107 points, while over in the West the Red Wings and the Anaheim Ducks had 113 and 110 points respectively. So to make it simple, this year's Caps team is really, really good overall and playing better now then they did during the first two months of the season.


For the remainder of February, the Caps have 10 more games to play; six home games and four away; nine against Eastern Conference foes and one against a Western Conference opponent (Colorado at Verizon Center on February 20.) They play the Florida Panthers twice once home and once away and the Tampa Bay Lightening once; however six of the remaining 10 games this month are against teams that made the playoffs last season. During the month of March, the Caps will play 13 games (12 against Eastern Conference foes, six home games and 7 away games). When the season wraps up in April, the Caps play six games, all against Eastern Conference foes with three at home and then three away. So far this season, the Caps are 26-7-4 against Eastern Conference opponents, that's 0.757 hockey. Of the Caps remaining twenty nine (29) games, twenty seven (27) are against other Eastern Conference teams. If the Caps stay on or close to their current track record against Eastern Conference foes, they will capture between 110 and 114 points. That's basically why you've been feeling well... - it's ALL good.

The biggest question mark for the Capitals right now that Brent Johnson needs surgery has to be "What should we do about a second goaltender?" If you feel like you're hearing the theme song from "Jaws" just when you though it was safe to get back into the water, you're probably not alone.

Anyway what are your thoughts? other than: LETS GO CAPS!!!

Bummer .... Kings 5, Caps 4

Too little too late? Not really, how about too little early? Headlines elsewhere will probably say things like Kings Edge Caps 5-4 but that seems a little misleading... Let's recap, it was a "no point night" - only the third home "no point game" of the season for the Caps. Another interesting point is that the LA Kings, San Jose Sharks and the Columbus Blue Jackets are the only teams to "blank" the Caps so far this season. Coach Boudreau summed it up in the post game interview, the first two periods were as bad as the Caps have played all year. Nobody looked sharp. As good as the third period was, there was no reason that the Caps should have ever been down 4-2, the Caps really didn't play well at all during the third period.

The Caps special teams were mediocre, Theodore's goaltending wasn't horrible, but it sure seemed like there were a couple times when his glove hand wasn't where it was supposed to be and he got scored on. Brooks Laich had a solid game, but overall it wasn't until the lines were jumbled by Coach Boudreau in between the second and thrid periods that the Capital's offense came alive. Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, Alexander Frolov and Jonathan Quick did indeed take advantage of the openings the Caps gave them tonight but, with the exception of Quick, they also pretty much had their way with the Capitals the last time the two teams met. If anybody could have screened Jose Theodore better than Jeff Schultz did in the first period when the Kings scored, it would take a lot of work and some luck. The two quick goals the Kings scored at the beginning of the second period were the "Cap Killers" though. The game was a very different game then it could and would have otherwise been. However, to say the Caps lost may not be giving Quick, who had 41 saves or the Kings Offense who scored , 1 power play, 1 short handed and 3 even strength goals against the Caps in front of another sellout crowd at Verizon Center.

All that said, I have to say this - didn't you just love Sergei Federov's save of an empty net insurance goal by the Kings. The guy is hands down the easiest guy actively playing the game today that you can say the following about - "future hall of famer." Alexander Ovechkin scored his 200th goal - as was repeatedly pointed out by "Joe B" on Comcast SportsNet, Ovie is just the fourth player ever to reach the 200 goal plateau in 4 seasons. So a three game winning streak ends and now the Caps need to move on. Next up the Florida Panthers on Saturday at Verizon. The Panthers are 6-2-2 in their last 10 and just finished beating the NY Islanders 3-2 in regulation tonight. The Cats are also now in second place in the Southeast Division and Eighth Place in the Eastern Conference with 56 points, 14 back of the Capitals. Saturday will be a tough game the way the Panthers are playing.

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Great Weekend for Those Capitals, eh?

You Betcha - No Worries, Eh?


Excuse the gibberish and the disjointed, erratic posting here on Mark's Musings. I've been travelling a lot and buried at work. In fact, I've been in Ottawa since last Wednesday and just working about 14-18 hours a day. I missed the Caps games but as you can imagine I've been able to get a lot of hockey news whenever I turn on the tube here. Just for fun I will definitely pick up and read a copy of the Ottawa Sun today, for sure. I may even scan it and post it here when I get back to DC on Wednesday.


So seriously how about those Capitals? What's the season outlook appear to be now. What are the Capitals fighting for now? Well simply put Playoff Seeding and home ice advantages in the upcoming playoff series. For example if the season were to end now, and all top four teams in the Eastern Conference were to win their first series, then the Caps would play the Devils in the second round and have home ice advantage throughout both series. If the Caps were to lose to the Devils on Tuesday and the season ended Wednesday, they would still play the Devils in the second round but the Devils would have home ice advantage in a 7 game series. So even when your team is 5 or 6 games up on their nearest division follower, there is still a lot to play for with 31 games left in the season. LETS GO CAPS!!!!!



How do things look for individuals on the Capitals?


Well as you no doubt know, Alexander Ovechkin is leading the league in goals scored and is on pace for 58+ goals and 108+ points for the season. That will no doubt keep him in the running for a potential repeat of the individual accolades he received last season. This past weekends 5 goals in two game performance in front of home sellout crowds on back to back afternoons will no doubt fuel more purchases of all sorts gear with the number "8" in the DC area. I know I'm off to buy some. You have to love the passion he plays the game with.


Alexander Semin continues on pace to a 35+ goal/80+ point season season assuming he stays healthy. That said in many ways the most important things to note about Semin's season so far is his great performances in shooting percentage (a team leading 19.2%) as well as his team leading +23 rating. He has become one of the best two way power forwards in the league, not just an awesome stickhandling, sniper. Way to go Sasha! Maybe I'll get a few jerseys and shirts with 28 too. Actually, I already have a few, just stay away from the fighting stuff, I liked it but I took a lot of ribbing.


Nicklas Backstrom is definitely "game on" this season as well. No sophomore slump for the teams number two point getter. Backstrom leads the team with 40 assists and with his 13 goals he has 53 points behind only Ovechkin. He has matured into a league leading first line pivot man in just his second year as a pro. When you look at the maturity and calmness he brings to the ice, it is truly amazing to think he is just 21 years old and has played "only" 133 regular season and 8 playoff games.

More Later when I get back from Ottawa....

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Fixing A Goof Up & A Look Ahead to Today's Game Against The Islanders

So somehow my post on the Caps - Bruins game got lost in the ether, no doubt cockpit error on my part so here it is in condensed form edited slightly to fix the tense now that it is two days late...

Saturday night the Capitals beat the Boston Bruins and gained two points on the league and conference leading boys from Beantown. It was a tightly played game in front of a raucous, sellout crowd that had all the elements of playoff hockey that are humanly possible for a game in January. The key matchups were as expected and despite Boston's very large and skillful defenseman Zdeno Chara keeping the Great Eight - Alexander Ovechkin contained for much of the game, the Capitals won. They won simply because the Caps won all the other key matchups, not by a tremendous amount, but they did win them decidedly. The end result is it was a two point night and the Capitals won their second game in a row.

In goal Jose Theodore played a very solid game as did Tim Thomas of Boston. Theodore stopped 23 of 24 shots and had a save percentage of 0.958 including several key stops that kept the Capitals tied or ahead. Thomas stopped 28 of 30 shots for a save percentage of 0.933 including a couple ones where he robbed the Capitals. Thomas and the Bruins did get on gift when Ovechkin fanned on a wide open right side of the net - something Caps fans aren't likely to see occur again too often over the next 12 years. However, neight he nor probably anybody else saw the slapshot that resulted in the game winning goal by Alexander Semin in the third period. The other two goals were scored on the powerplay the first by Boston's Marc Savard at the 1:49 mark of the second period to give Boston their first and only lead of the game.

Fortunately for the Capitals the Bruins lead lasted only 1:10. At the 2:42 mark of the second period Matt Lashoff was whistled off for his second minor penalty of the game. The Caps went on the powerplay and just 17 seconds later Michael Nylander found a wide open Mike Green who was pinching in as he often does. Green put the puck past Thomas into the top shelf left side of the net to tie the game back up for his 12th tally of the season. In the end Jose Theodore kept pace with the sizzling hot Tim Thomas and the "Young Guns" didn't get frustrated by the well executed 4-1 trap the Bruins often employed throughout the night. Every game with a team in front of you in the standings mattered and it was important the Capitals used the home ice advantage and the current situation with Boston's injury depleted roster. The associated Press' three stars of the game were: 1st: Alexander Semin; 2nd: John Erskine; 3rd: Tim Thomas. The Bruins will be the Caps first game after the All-Star break when the two teams meet again on Tuesday the 27th in Boston.

The Capitals next have back to back road games between now and the All-Star break. The games are against two teams that are struggling and desperate for wins: the New York Islanders and the Ottawa Senators. They face the Islanders today at Nassau Coliseum at 2PM in a matinee game. The Islanders have struggled with injuries to key players, particularly star goaltender Rick DiPietro all season and are at the bottom of the league standings with an overall record of 12-29-4 for 28 points. The Isles home record is at 7-12-2 and they are 1-8-1 in their last ten games. By all measures the Caps should win this game without too much trouble. The Capitals lead this season's series 2-0-0, having won the first meeting between the two teams 5-2 at Verizon Center on 12/4 and then outlasted a comeback attempt by the Islanders and win 5-4 at Veterans Memorial Coliseum on 12/16.

As always though there are some variables that make this game interesting and could get in the Caps way. Per Tarik El-Bashir, Capitals Captain Chris Clark and Boyd Gordon will return to the lineup this afternoon. Backup goaltender Brent Johnson is a scratch with an injury he sustained in practice last week so the Capitals have recalled Darren Machesney from Hershey. No word on whether "Cheeser" or Jose Theodore will start for the Caps this afternoon yet, nor why it was Machesney vice Simeon Varlamov who went 2-0-0 in the two starts he's made so far this season that was recalled. To make room for Clark and Gordon, the healthy scratches will likely be Eric Fehr and David Steckel.

In addition to the injuries and shuffling on both benches, there's also the fear the Caps will have a let down after beating the Bruins, the one team they really need to beat more than any other right now in the standings, last Saturday. Hopefully, the Capitals will be pros who want to go into the All Star Break riding a 4 game winning streak and no one is taking the Isles lightly. The Islanders still have several guys who can hurt anybody on the scoreboard. This is after all the NHL and that's why they play the games on the ice not via a computer simulation.

Prediction Caps take this game 5-3. Just fifteen minutes till the puck drops...

LETS GO CAPS!!!!!!!!!!