Caps Defense - Other People's Thoughts and Our Own...

From "On Frozen Blog" Coach Boudreau is quoted as saying "I think we've got eleven NHL defensemen." Over at The Peerless Prognosticator, Peerless makes the point " Why are there questions about the Caps defense? Well, because there should be, and here is why." Both these blogs usually bring up good and valid points - so you may be wondering "which is it?" My reaction after reading and thinking about it - "Probably both..."

What?!?!?!? You say...

Well here's the 11 guys who can and probably will make NHL rosters either in DC or elsewhare as NHL Defenseman and hold their own in the next 24 months:

1) Mike Green; 2) Tom Poti; 3) Brian Pothier; 4) Shoane Morrisonn; 5) Milan Jurcina; 6) John Erskine; 7) Jeff Shultz; 8) Karl Alzner; 9) John Carlson; 10) Tyler Sloan; 11) Sean Colins and possibly 12) Bryan Helmer and a few others too...

Speaking of Caps current and former Defensemen did you all hppen to cath this signing: "The Anaheim Ducks have signed defenseman Steve Eminger to a two-year contract."

So with this "wealth" of NHL caliber blue line talent in their system how can Peerless be right too? Well first of all it's because he's Peerless and well he's very often, mostly, usually right... Secondly, having 11 NHL Caliber defensemen the majority of whom are guys who can play a regular shift and be worth between the NHL Minimum and say $1.5M per year and having a defense anchored by 3 or more guys who are worth a lot more then that and rugged enough and fit enough to log significant (say 20+) minutes per game, play in 65 or more games in the regular season, and be ready for a playoff run that is long and takes you too and through say the Stanley Cup Finals... Well that's an entirely different set of conditions and leads to an entirely different set of "worries." Further, add in to the discussion, consideration of the level of experience a Stanley;ey Cup finalist's blue line usually has as a consideration when looking at the Caps today and is Peerless wrong or too pessimistic when he says:

"Well, because there should be..."

For my 2 cents - I think not. However, I'm a fan first and foremost and I take encouragement and derive optimism from his other very valid point - "We could be accused of splitting hairs when no matter which of these groups of six we're looking at, we're looking at a record that reflects a 100+ point pace. And given how bad the Caps defense was a short few years ago, we might be seen as splitting the split hairs. " I'm still thinking that with everything else that GMGM has to consider throughout the first part of the season through the trade deadline, if this looks like a year that could be "The Year" - we have a lot of pieces to use to complete the puzzle in a myriad of ways...

Less than a month till the season opener y'all.... My understanding is we STH's should be receiving our tickets this week....

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

Finally! Rookie Camp Starts Tomorrow and I Follow-up On My Thoughts re: What About Nylander and Clark....

Finally...Some Caps Hockey News Is Likely to Start Being Made...

Rookie Camp opens at Kettler Center Iceplex (KCI) tomorrow, the Capitals announced the rosters, 23 players will participate in rookie camp starting tomorrow at KCI with a 10:30 a.m. practice and runs through Friday, Sept. 11, when the rookies visit Vorhees, N.J., for a scrimmage against the Flyers’ rookies at Virtua Center Flyers Skate Zone. The rookie camp roster as announced is:

FORWARDS

79 BRODA, Joel 6’1” 203 Left 11/24/89 Yorkton, Saskatchewan Moose Jaw/Calgary WHL

88 BRUESS, Trevor 6’0” 209 Right 1/6/86 Minneapolis, Minnesota Minnesota State-Mankato WCHA

67 CASAVANT, Benjamin 6’1” 200 Left 1/21/91 St-Hyacinthe, Quebec Prince Edward Island QMJHL

84 DELLA ROVERE, Stefan 5’11” 196 Left 2/25/90 Richmond Hill, Ontario Barrie/South Carolina OHL/ECHL

72 DUBUC, Michael 6’3” 170 Right 6/29/88 Granby, Quebec Hershey/South Carolina AHL/ECHL

50 EAKIN, Cody 5’11” 187 Left 5/24/91 Winnipeg, Manitoba Swift Current WHL

59 FINLEY, Joe 6’7” 245 Left 6/29/87 Edina, Minnesota North Dakota/Hershey WCHA/AHL

94 GUSTAFSSON, Anton 6’2” 195 Left 2/25/90 Karlskoga, Sweden Bofors Sweden

77 HAUSWIRTH, Jake 6’5” 200 Left 2/16/88 Merrill, Wisconsin Omaha USHL

65 JASINSKY, Ryan 6’2” 205 Right 1/13/90 Richmond, Virginia Victoriaville QMJHL

93 KUGRYSHEV, Dmitri 5’11” 192 Right 1/18/90 Moscow, Russia Quebec QMJHL

76 MITCHELL, Garrett 5’11 185 Right 9/2/91 Regina, Saskatchewan Regina WHL

DEFENSEMEN

74 CARLSON, John 6’3” 211 Right 1/10/90 Natick, Massachusetts London/Hershey OHL/AHL

38 DAWSON, Aaron 6’5” 220 Left 3/11/85 Peoria, Illinois Univ. of Prince Edward Island AUS

66 FLEMMING, Brett 5’11” 178 Right 2/26/91 Regina, Saskatchewan Mississauga St. Michael’s OHL

73 GODFREY, Josh 6’1” 199 Right 1/15/88 Collingwood, Ontario Hershey/South Carolina AHL/ECHL

96 KERR, Ryan 6’2” 208 Left 3/4/89 Lions Bay, British Columbia Portland WHL

86 MESTERY, Eric 6’5” 203 Left 5/28/90 Winnipeg, Manitoba Tri-City/Lethbridge WHL

68 MISKOVIC, Zach 6’0” 198 Right 5/8/85 River Forest, Illinois St. Lawrence ECAC

54 SCHMIDT, Kevin 6’1” 176 Left 2/14/86 Markham, Ontario Bowling Green CCHA

GOALTENDERS

70 HOLTBY, Braden 6’1” 206 Left 9/16/89 Lloydminster, Saskatchewan Saskatoon WHL

30 NEUVIRTH, Michal 6’1” 197 Left 3/23/88 Usi Labem, Czech Republic CAPITALS/Hershey/South Car.NHL/AHL/ECHL

40 VARLAMOV, Semyon 6’1” 183 Left 4/27/88 Samara, Russia CAPITALS/Hershey NHL/AHL.

A couple of interesting notes here. Joe Finley was announced as a forward so it does appear the Caps will try and get him to make the transition from large bruising defenseman to large, bruising, checking forward; a role we saw him play several times earlier this summer in development camp. Caps fans who stop by KCI for rookie camp will once again get to see Jake Hauswirth, Stefan Della Rovere, Trevor Bruess, Anton Gustafsson and Dmitri Kugryshev all work for a roster spot once again. All six of these guys performed well during this summers development camp at times, though Gustafsson appearance was shortened by injury. It will be interesting to see who from this group impresses enough to make which roster (South Carolina, Hershey, and even possibly the Capitals.) The Caps "System" is certainly remains quite full of talent. It's very interesting to me that despite the high powered offense the Caps skate and the pipeline full of talented scorers and offensive threats, the Caps have apparently decided to try and see if Finley can make the transition from the blue line and bulk up the skaters up front.

On the defensive side of the rookie camp roster, the most notable area is in the net - in Neuvirth and Varlamov, the Caps have two legitimate liely future NHL #1's and in Holtby, they have a guy who could also one day be "the guy" for an NHL team night in and night out. That these guys will be pushing each other throughout this entire year shouldn't be doubted at all. The blue liners you ask...Carlson, Godfrey, and Mestery are all names that rabid Caps fans have seen before and are looking forward to seeing make the jump to being pros in the Caps System but the other five D-men listed here, especially Miskovic, are all guys I want to see and check out as well. After all this is a pipeline that along with the group in Washington and Hershey that has GMGM and Bruce Boudreau pushing big Joe Finley from the blue-line up to winger.

I'm hoping to swing by KCI tomorrow and sneak a peek and maybe get a few pics in the AM.

Training camp for veterans begins Sunday, Sept. 13, when 48 players, including 32 who played at least a regular season game in a Capitals sweater last season join the rookies at KCI. The announced veteran training camp roster is:

FORWARDS

20 AUCOIN, Keith 5’8” 165 Right 11/6/78 Waltham, Massachusetts CAPITALS/Hershey NHL/AHL

19 BACKSTROM, Nicklas 6’1” 210 Left 11/23/87 Gavle, Sweden CAPITALS NHL

83 BEAGLE, Jay 6’3” 208 Right 10/16/85 Calgary, Alberta CAPITALS/Hershey NHL/AHL

36 BOUCHARD, Francois 6’1” 190 Left 4/26/88 Sherbrooke, Quebec Hershey AHL

56 BOURQUE, Chris 5’8” 181 Left 1/29/86 Boston, Massachusetts CAPITALS/Hershey NHL/AHL

10 BRADLEY, Matt 6’3” 201 Right 6/13/78 Stittsville, Ontario CAPITALS NHL

17 CLARK, Chris 6’0” 196 Right 3/8/76 South Windsor, Connecticut CAPITALS NHL

16 FEHR, Eric 6’4” 212 Right 9/7/85 Winkler, Manitoba CAPITALS NHL

14 FLEISCHMANN, Tomas 6’1” 190 Left 5/16/84 Koprivnice, Czech Republic CAPITALS NHL

33 GIROUX, Alexandre 6’3” 201 Left 6/16/81 Quebec City, Quebec CAPITALS/Hershey NHL/AHL

63 GORDON, Andrew 5’11” 180 Right 12/13/85 Halifax, Nova Scotia CAPITALS/Hershey NHL/AHL

15 GORDON, Boyd 6’1” 201 Right 10/19/83 Unity, Saskatchewan CAPITALS NHL

61 JOUDREY, Andrew 5’11” 185 Left 7/15/84 Bedford, Nova Scotia Hershey AHL

34 KANE, Boyd 6’2” 225 Left 4/18/78 Swift Current, Saskatchewan Philadelphia/Philadelphia NHL/AHL

22 KNUBLE, Mike 6’3” 230 Right 7/7/72 Toronto, Ontario Philadelphia NHL

21 LAICH, Brooks 6’2” 210 Left 6/23/83 Wawota, Saskatchewan CAPITALS NHL

53 LAING, Quintin 6’2” 210 Left 6/8/79 Rosetown, Saskatchewan CAPITALS/Hershey NHL/AHL

9 MORRISON, Brendan 5’11” 181 Left 8/15/75 Pitt Meadows, British Columbia Anaheim/Dallas NHL

92 NYLANDER, Michael 6’1” 195 Left 10/3/72 Stockholm, Sweden CAPITALS NHL

48 OSALA, Oskar 6’4” 217 Left 12/26/87 Vaasa, Finland CAPITALS/Hershey NHL/AHL

8 OVECHKIN, Alex 6’2” 220 Right 9/17/85 Moscow, Russia CAPITALS NHL

85 PERREAULT, Mathieu 5’9” 166 Left 1/5/88 Drummondville, Quebec Hershey AHL

90 PINIZZOTTO, Steve 6’2” 196 Right 4/26/84 Mississauga, Ontario Hershey/South Carolina AHL/ECHL

45 REID, Darren 6’2” 202 Right 5/8/83 Lac La Biche, Alberta Hershey AHL

28 SEMIN, Alexander 6’2” 205 Right 3/3/84 Krasnojarsk, Russia CAPITALS NHL

39 STECKEL, David 6’5” 222 Left 3/15/82 Westbend, Wisconsin CAPITALS NHL

25 SUGDEN, Brandon 6’4” 233 Right 6/23/78 Toronto, Ontario Hartford AHL

57 WILSON, Kyle 6'0" 200 Right 12/15/84 Oakville, Ontario Hershey AHL

DEFENSEMEN

27 ALZNER, Karl 6’2” 205 Left 9/24/88 Burnaby, British Columbia CAPITALS/Hershey NHL/AHL

44 AMADIO, Greg 6’2” 232 Left 5/13/81 Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario Hershey AHL

62 COLLINS, Sean 6'1" 208 Right 10/20/83 Troy, Michigan CAPITALS/Hershey NHL/AHL

47 DENISOV, Vladimir 5’11” 207 Left 6/29/84 Novopolotzk, Belarus Hartford AHL

4 ERSKINE, John 6’4” 216 Left 6/26/80 Kingston, Ontario CAPITALS NHL

52 GREEN, Mike 6’2” 208 Right 10/12/85 Calgary, Alberta CAPITALS NHL

43 HELMER, Brian 6’2” 208 Right 6/15/72 Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario CAPITALS/Hershey NHL/AHL

23 JURCINA, Milan 6’4” 233 Right 6/7/83 Liptovsky Mikulas, Slovakia CAPITALS NHL

75 McNEILL, Grant 6’2” 220 Left 5/8/83 Vermilion, Alberta Hershey AHL

46 McNEILL, Patrick 6’0” 195 Left 3/17/87 Strathroy, Ontario Hershey AHL

26 MORRISONN, Shaone 6’4” 210 Left 12/23/82 Vancouver, British Columbia CAPITALS NHL

2 POTHIER, Brian 6’0” 200 Left 4/15/77 New Bedford, Mass. CAPITALS/Hershey NHL/AHL

3 POTI, Tom 6’3” 210 Left 3/22/77 Worcester, Mass. CAPITALS NHL

55 SCHULTZ, Jeff 6’6” 221 Left 2/25/86 Calgary, Alberta CAPITALS NHL

89 SLOAN, Tyler 6’3” 190 Left 3/15/81 Calgary, Alberta CAPITALS/Hershey NHL/AHL

41 WELLAR, Patrick 6’3” 210 Left 12/4/83 Carrot River, Saskatchewan Hershey/South Carolina AHL/ECHL

24 YEO, Dylan 5’11” 210 Left 6/16/86 Prince Albert, Saskatchewan Manitoba/Victoria AHL/ECHL

GOALTENDERS

31 BACASHIHUA, Jason 5’11” 175 Left 9/20/82 Garden City, Michigan Lake Erie AHL

35 FORD, Todd 6’4” 176 Right 5/1/84 Calgary, Alberta Victoria ECHL

60 THEODORE, Jose 5’11” 182 Right 9/13/76 Laval, Quebec CAPITALS NHL.

For anybody who still might be wondering if the rebuild is complete, just take a look at this talented group, their ages and their statistics from last season. The Caps finished the regular season with the 4th best record in the league before loosing in the second round of the playoffs, in a 7 game series, to the eventual Stanley Cup winner. Their AHL affiliate, the Hershey Bears won their league's championship - the Calder Cup and their ECHL affiliate - the South Carolina Stingrays - won their league's championship - the Kelly Cup. Additionally, if you look at this summer's few pickups by Capital's GM George McPhee, this years team is stronger then last year's and you have talented, young players who have had success at the AHL and ECHL level fighting hard for the few roster spots available "on the big club."

This will be an interesting camp for the Caps, us fans, and the season should be a great one too. All of which leads us to the next topic...

What about Nylander and Clark?

While to some degree both have some similarities, these are two entirely different stories and may very likely end in two entirely different outcomes. So you need to look at them one at a time. We'll go in order of salary cap hit..

Michael Nylander, Center, age 36. Nylander will be the second highest paid Capital this season with a salary of $5.5M and a cap hit of $4.875M. That's a big number, especially when you consider what's been going on with him and his role on the team since they've transitioned from a puck control team playing the trap under Glen Hanlon to an agressive open style forecheck under Bruce Boudreau. Right now, if he has a good camp and plays well Nylander might realistically expect to get a sweater every second or third game here in DC. He has a no trade clause, and that's not his fault, the Caps gave it to him and it's his right to make sure that under any deal that might get cut this season or next neither he or his familiy suffer. That said right now, from a salary cap management perspective, he is a big challenge for the Capitals. On his side of things, the lack of playing time he has been getting is a big problem for him. He's genuinely a nice guy and I hope things work out for him. However, his future here in DC seems basically non-existant unless, there are a few guys who can't play early this season for some reason AND he changes his game and syle of play somewhat, a daunting task at age 36. To be sure, he isn't making the contribution you'd expect from a guy who is tied for the 59th highest paid hockey player in the NHL (ref nhlnumbers.com) No doubt, if the Caps Management can do something to move Nyls that makes sense they will, and if it is something that doesn't hurt him too much, he'll likely take it. That said don't expect the Caps to buy him out this season, the numbers don't make sense - next season might be a different story. However, it's also clear the Caps are looking to make a big move up this year and they won't play Nyls at the expense of wins and the team just to make it possible to move him either.

Chris Clark, Right Wing, age 33. Clark, the team captain has the 8th highest salary cap hit ($2.63M) and 8th highest salary ($2.65M). That salary puts Clark in a tie for 235th in the league this season; that's probably a fair number for a team captain, IF he can regain his form (with a performance closely approximating his 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 seasons) AND stay healthy. Unlike Nylander, a healthy Chris Clark can and does fit into the Capitals "look" and style of play under Bruce Boudreau. It's not hard to see a healthy, gritty Chris Clark playing right wing on a regular third line shift and netting 15+ goals, playing solid two way hockey and being the team leader the Verizon faithful know him to be. If that happens then there's probably not an issue for him and the Caps will be a better team for it. If on the other hand he has another injurey shortened/marred season like the last two, well it's hard to earn your money confined to the press box because of injury even when you're not the team's Captain.

All the above said here's the reality of things - this season the Washington Capitals have $7.5M of salary cap space tied up in Clark and Nylander. Next season, if nothing changes over the next 12 months, they will also have that same $7.5M of salary cap space tied up in them for the 2011-2012 season. It's unlikely that regardless of how either of them play this season, GMGM will want to go into the summer looking to have to resign RFAs Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, Boyd Gordon and Eric Fehr, as well as UFA David Steckel with ~13.2% of the teams salary caps space tied up in both Nylander and Clark. So something is likely to be done with at least one, if not both these guys. Regardless of how much, the fans and management like Chris Clark, unless he turns it around thsi season and then even if he does, it's 50/50....

Look at the rest of the other 7 of the top 8 teams in the league and their 5 top paid forwards:

1) San Jose: Thorton, Marleau, Michalek, Clowe and Cheechoo;

2) Boston: Sevard, Bergeron, Ryder, Kreji, and Strum;

3) Detroit: Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, Filppula, and Hudler;

5) New Jersey: Elias, Rolston, Zajac, Zubrus, Parise;

6) Chicago: Hossa, Sharp, "Babyface Nelson" Kane, Boland and Versteeg;

7) Vancouver: Daniel and Henrick Sedin, Demitra, Samuelsson, and Brenier;

8) Pittsburgh: Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Kunitz, and Guerin.

In all those cases nobody else has two guys who are not clearly part of their top six forward/top two lines that are two of their top five paid forwards. That would say that something probably has to give on the Caps roster with Clark and Nylander - it's probably Nylander if Clark has a ~20 goal season; it's probably both if he does not. Even teams that have similar salary distributions between Forwards, Defensement and Goaltenders as the Capitals (Pittsburgh, San Jose, Vancouver (sortof since they have six defensement making between $2 and $4M), and Boston; all have at least 4 of their top five paid forwards on their top two lines.

So what's the point of this ramble - the battle for every spot on lines 3 and 4 and the final 2 defensemen will be a battle amongst a large group of talented young players in the Caps system - ALL SEASON LONG. Among other things. that means both Clark and Nylander who haven't really been earning their full salaries relative to the rest of the team will need to turn things around to even get ice time. Me - I'm not betting against Chris Clark and I wouldn't risk too much coin betting on Michael Nylander at this point.

Should be a great season -

LETS GO CAPS!!!!

So What Do Things Look Like Heading Into Camp For the Capitals?

So going into training camp these upcoming weeks what does the Washington Capital's likely roster look like? I haven't pondered this in a while and I don't know how different what I project will be from the last time I looked at this but as I think about this season's positives for the Capitals a smile comes to my face... My projected forward lines are:

Ovechkin - Backstrom - Knuble,

Semin - Morrison - Laich,

Fleischmann - Steckel - Fehr,

Osala - Gordon - Bradley.

Before we get into the what?!?!? Where's Clark !?!? What about Nylander, you don't really think they'll pay him $5M to sit in the press box this season - do ya ?!?! stuff. Let's just examine this set of lines and a few of the possibilities with these guys and why the heck i think the team could easily look a lot like this on most nights and do very well....

The first line is awesome, while some folks will be missing Vicktor Kozlov and Mike Knuble is 37, comparing what each of them did last season you have to look at Knuble as an upgrade. With Knuble on the line as well as OV and Backstrom you have a line that last year scored 105 goals between them (Knuble 27 goals versus 13 for Kozlov). Also Knuble's presence and "grit" should help the line keep things simpler and may even result in opening up a that little bit more time and space for OV to have yet another 60+ goal season. The continued maturation and development of Backstrom also seems all but guaranteed and as his 1+ point per game productivity in the playoffs last season showed he too could likely benefit from the presence of Knuble driving to the net to open things up more.

The second line of Semin - Morrison - Laich is one I'm very excited about, combined they scored 73 goals last season. Assuming Alexander Semin continues to develop and play more of a two way game, something that Brendan Morrison's presence - like Sergei Federov's last season - should reinforce, and Morrison returns more true to his historical form, and this line is going to be the most different thing between the start of last season and the start of this season. Laich had another solid year last year and will only have his "gritty" style of play reinforced watching Knuble and Morrison nose for the net and drive at 37 and 34 respectively. It wouldn't surprise me to see this line quickly click with Semin relishing the time and space Morrison and Laich's style of play force defenses to give him, and using it for his first 40+ goal season. Morrison with a feeling of something to prove and finding that playing with Semin can be as exciting and fun as playing with AO might just return to 20+ goal form; and Laich with all that garbage to pick up continuing to better his season high goal production and knocking on that 30 goal season door.

If the second line "gels" like I think it will, opposing teams would be looking at playing a Washington Capitals second line that produces 90 plus goals. Talk about no place to hide. Talk about having two power play units to make your mistakes hurt even without a heavyweight enforcer and that's what the Caps could well have in their top six forwards. Talk about having to really do some juggling - if Semin has a 40+ goal season this year - GMGM is really going to have to earn his money when it comes to extending his contract before the end of the season. Talk about having a lot to shout about in Section 103 during Caps game this season - I'm grinning just thinking about these possibilities.

The third line consisting of Fleischmann - Steckel - Fehr consists of two guys on wing who though solidly deserving of a sweater each night haven't lived up to their potential and a center who really earns his money and at a salary of $725K as one of the better faceoff men in the NHL last season is a bargain. Further last season during the playoffs "Stecks" had 3 goals, 2 assists and a 15.8% shooting percentage in 14 games - if he can keep on that track (0.357 points per game) during this regular season that would be a 30 point season with 12 - 15 goals. Those would be solid stats for a third line center. Assuming that at least one of the two wings betters their last season performance (I'd bet on Fehr getting 17+ goals and "Flash" getting 21 or more) and it's easy seeing this line - a group of guys who scored 39 goals between them last regular season producing 50+ goals during this years regular season campaign. Given this year is a contract year for all three of them, nobody is probably more motivated to make that jump from 39 goals to 50+ goals then they themselves.

My fourth line of Oscar Osala - Boyd Gordon - Matt Braley is a bit of a stretch but not so much so. I picked Osala because I think coming out of training camp at least one of the Calder Cup winning Hershey Bears will have earned themselves a roster spot up here in DC. I picked Osala because at just 21 years old, 6'4", 217# the strapping Finn pairs up well with the 6'0", 201# 25 year old Gordon and the 6'3" 201# 30 year old Bradley to form a pretty big, solid checking line. Further from what little I saw of Osala during his scant 2 games with the Capitals he is driven and he doesn't seem to shy too far away from a pretty physical, but fast aggressive style of play like Coach Boudreau wants to see. As far as Gordon and Bradley go, especially in light of their 2009 playoff performances, there's no doubt when you show up for a "Hockey War" you want these guys wearing a sweater, on your bench ready to play. Gordon is a responsible guy on both ends of the ice and is a solid special teams guy as a penalty killer. The 30 year old Bradley had a solid 2008-2009 regular season then stepped up his game in the playoff notching 2 goals and 4 assists in 14 games (0.429 points per game). It's easy to see how based on what he did in the playoffs how the 31 year old Bradley, if he had a guy like Osala or Jay Beagle or Alexandre Giroux or Francois Bouchard or Chris Bourque or ... on the other wing, and Gordon has a another good solid season, might be able to notch a 25+ point 10+ goal season this year.

So that's my logic for my forward line picks.

Defensive pairings well here again the Caps are looking better then they did at the start of last season, thanks mainly to the return to the line-up of Brian Pothier, as well as the continued development of some of the other guys. My 3 defensive pairings:

Green - Morrisson,

Poti - Jurcina,

Pothier - Erskine,

Backups: Schultz, Alzner.

I look for GMGM to deal two of these guys early in the season to make some room for the up & comers, as well as possibly some cap space and get some additional draft picks assuming every stays reasonably health through the first 1/4 of the season. My reasoning for the picks and the placement of the parings is pretty convoluted.

First why does Alzner start the season in the press box or in Hershey - because he can and they can move him back and forth without putting him through waivers and he hasn't finished maturing his game in Hershey yet. Why does Schultz start the season in the press box - because he'll still be recovering from his off season surgery even though he'll be insisting he's ready to play.

Now the pairings - to me Mike Green - Shaone Morrisonn works and works well most if not all of the time. This will be the year Mike Green proves last season was no fluke but he'll also be looking to play even better in his own end without sacrificing the offensive in your face dynamic he brings to the game. I also look for Morrisonn to take a few more shots from the point when he gets the chance and expect both his shots on goal and his results in the way of goals and primary assists to go up. Last season's number for Green were =/- +24, 31 goals, 42 assists for 73 points with 243 shots on goal and a 12.8 shooting percentage in just 68 games. I won't hazard a guess on Green's production this season though if I did it would be between 20 and 30 goals with a =/- of +29 or better. Morrisonn's regular season numbers were +/- +4, 3 goals, 10 assists, 50 shots on goal with a 6.0% shooting percentage in 72 games played. I think Morrisonn will better those numbers significantly this season with a +/- of +12 or better, 80+ shots on goal, and a 9.0% or better shooting percentage I can see him producing 7 goals, and 17+ assists. I actually see this pair on the ice with the second and third line as often as they are out there with the first line as well. That's why I see Morrisonn's productivity going up and Green's staying close to last year's awesome season.

The second pairing of Tom Poti and Milan Jurcina enters this season having played reasonably well together often last seasoin. Further Jurcina's play last season earned him a $1.375M salary this year in arbitration (or perhaps GMGM deserves some credit for that by giving John Erskine a $2.5M, 2 year ($1.25M/year) contract extension in the middle of last season to keep Erskine off the UFA market.) In any case the 32 year old Tom Poti had a +/- +3, 3 goal, 10 assist 59 game injury shortened regular season and then stepped up his game in the playoffs notching a =/- +8, 2 goals and 5 assists in 14 games. "Juice" the 26 year old was second on the team in hits, played 79 regular season games, was +/- +1 with 3 goals and 11 assists. If the big Czech could improve his shooting percentage/accuracy (he was 3.2% with 95 shots on goal) his offensive production would likely improve linearly without any other aspect of his game suffering because he has a cannon of a slapper. In the playoffs Juice was +6, and had 2 goals with only 10 shots on goal in 14 games. I see this line out there and the 6'4" 233# Jurcina laying solid, legal hits on guys prone to take cheap hits on the first line. I see him able to do that because Poti will be there playing disciplined hockey and covering for Jurcina if he has to get out of position to do that aspect of his role now that the team is without a designated "heavyweight."

The third pairing I see as Pothier with whoever else is dressed that night assuming he has indeed fully recovered, stays that way and plays as well or better then he did in his 9 regular season and 13 playoff games last year. Ultimately though if things go the way i think they will I see some shuffling on the second and third pairing as GMGM deals two of the 8 defensemen listed here away, sometime between now and the trade deadline.

Goaltending I see as Theodore and Varlamov - ALL SEASON long. I also see Theo having a good year and holding onto number 1 throughout the entire year. I see Varly having the kind of year he needs to have to ensure he comes into camp next season as the number 1 as well. That should mean another 50+ win season for your Washington Capitals.

So what do you think - am I crazy? I'll ponder the fates of Chris Clark and Michael Nylander with my next post.

LETS GO CAPS!!!

USA Hockey Is Now Going To Try And Censor The Press...

This Should Be A Fun One To Watch...

First Patrick Kane makes this limp statement today:

"Because I put myself in being in the wrong position in the wrong time, I've caused a lot of pain for my family, my hometown of Buffalo, the city of Chicago, the Chicago Blackhawks and obviously the great fans we have here in Chicago. And for that part, I sincerely apologize. Now it's time for me to move forward. I'm excited to get back to the ice and represent the Chicago Blackhawks and the United States Olympic Hockey Team. Thank you."

Then Brian Burke & follows up by telling reporters (compliments of PuckDaddy.com):

"After Kane departed, USA Hockey director of communications Dave Fischer attempted to make the scandal off-limits during the three-day camp just outside of Chicago:

"Obviously, throughout the course of the three days, he will be available to the media with the condition that the topic not be anything about that because he can't comment on it, as you understand. Our players cannot comment on it, our management team ... if you'd respect that, you can all appreciate that until the legal proceedings get wrapped up in the near future."

Burke, however, had a few more comments to get in during his turn at the mic, telling the media to ask their questions now because "we're not talking about Patrick Kane after we leave here."
He said the situation hasn't affected his judgment of Kane as a member of the 2010 USA Hockey squad, although he deflected questions that asked him to speculate on Kane's status depending on what a grand jury decides to do with the case.

Burke was steadfast, however, that Kane was a victim of circumstance: "I think it's possible for a young man to be in the wrong place at the wrong time," he said, adding that "when I was Patrick Kane's age, I did a couple of things I wouldn't want to talk about up here."

Mostly, Burke chastised the media for making the Kane affair into front-page news, although he would couch the comments with claims that he wasn't "trying to scold" them. Which of course he totally was. "

This should be a fun thing to watch particularly during the next three days, no way that at least one reporter doesn't take Burke's statements as a challenge, and I gotta believe there's at least one or two other players who think Kane is a prima donna based on the rumours out of Chicago. So what punishment will USA Hockey and Burke extract out of the guy who says he thinks that stupid, spoiled brats, ought to have to pay for their stupidity with more than a simple apology before the world just forgets their mistakes and moves on....

Your thoughts?

I can't wait till we have some real hockey news to talk about here in DC -

LETS GO CAPS!!!!